Status of AFC: Should Bills Go All In For 2019?

[reddogblitz]

30 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

And then 3 weeks later he decided to bench Tyrod for Nathan Peterman!

In retrospect I actually get that now. In baseball Billy Beane has made seemingly conflicting moves like that. The A’s are out of contention, and then he traded for a veteran who’s signed for the next year too. Grab value whenever and wherever you find it. (Not that KB was “value” but really, how could they know he’d be THAT bad?). So if it’s acquiring an expiring contract because “this is the year to go for it,” I hate it. But if it’s getting a good deal on a player who may also make you better next year or the year after that? Sure. 

 

I don't understand why so many TBDers have this attitude of we don't wanna do too much now because really, it's in 2021 we will be good enough to compete or whatever.  Why are you so concerned about 2021?  We're strong and pretty much the rest of the AFC is weak. We even almost beat the Patsies** and should have. We're ready to compete RIGHT NOW.  if we can improve our chances without a big investment even if it only helps us THIS YEAR is worth it IMHO.  And, if we do compete and say win a playoff game that will improve our chances of getting better FAs next year.

 

If the rest of the AFC weren't weak and we hadn't shoulda woulda coulda beat the Patsies** I'd agree with you.

 

You can never count on what next year brings.  I remember in the late 1990s we thought we were close to being back with a dominant D only to have another team in our division come out of nowhere and dominate.  

 

The table is set.  THIS is our year.  Go for it.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I'm tried of waiting til next year.  Just win.

[Coach Tuesday]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Doesn't have to be one or the other.

 

If you want to win long term you need a good offense...........even the greatest defense of this generation(the Seahawks aka youngest team in football when the won the SB) could only sustain that level for about 4 seasons.   So it's going to be a juggling act keeping this team competitive.

 

UNLESS you make Allen GREAT.

 

Which is why you want to get him great weapons ASAP.

 

This year is a window.........sweet schedule.......defense at it's peak.........Pats OL a mess........Chiefs defense is a joke.......NFC is wide open with no great team.

 

It's before your time but Polian took a shot trading for Pro Bowl safety Leonard Smith........who greatly helped.........and that didn't hurt them long term.

 

After that unfortunately Polian got a bit too huggy with his draft picks though and it cost him.

 

One thing you will find is that as your roster gets better you often stop drafting as efficiently because BPA and NEED stop being the same thing.

 

That happened with Polian.

 

He also dropped the ball by not making a move for Charles Haley(an OBVIOUS fit and need and not getting him helped a burgeoning rival) and addressing FS or NT with better players and as a result they never won a SB despite a large window.

 

 

Which is why, if a big-bodied WR or, preferably, a stud TE became available, I'd make that move NOW.  Allen is right on the cusp - but you can tell that he's chasing a bit, in part because he feels he needs to win games himself, in part because he doesn't have someone he can rely on to get open on every single play.  (Side note, Beasley, who is the closest thing to a security blanket, was double- and triple-covered on third downs yesterday.)  The tight ends on the roster have taken turns dropping critical passes all season, including Knox whom I love but who looks to be a year away from being a consistent contributor.

 

Go get him a Kyle Rudolph type and watch him relax a bit, then you'll see growth.

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Doesn't have to be one or the other.

 

If you want to win long term you need a good offense...........even the greatest defense of this generation(the Seahawks aka youngest team in football when the won the SB) could only sustain that level for about 4 seasons.   So it's going to be a juggling act keeping this team competitive.

 

UNLESS you make Allen GREAT.

 

Which is why you want to get him great weapons ASAP.

 

This year is a window.........sweet schedule.......defense at it's peak.........Pats OL a mess........Chiefs defense is a joke.......NFC is wide open with no great team.

 

It's before your time but Polian took a shot trading for Pro Bowl safety Leonard Smith........who greatly helped.........and that didn't hurt them long term.

 

After that unfortunately Polian got a bit too huggy with his draft picks though and it cost him.

 

One thing you will find is that as your roster gets better you often stop drafting as efficiently because BPA and NEED stop being the same thing.

 

That happened with Polian.

 

He also dropped the ball by not making a move for Charles Haley(an OBVIOUS fit and need and not getting him helped a burgeoning rival) and addressing FS or NT with better players and as a result they never won a SB despite a large window.

 

 

Guys whose bodies are failing like Williams and Green don't even help short term.

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, dma0034 said:

This is a learning year. Next year they'll be contenders. I fully expect them to lose to the Chiefs or Patriots in the playoffs close and come back and dominate next year

I agree, we're probably not winning the afce this year. This was always going to be year 2 for Josh's learning curve & growing pains. Next year is when we explode. Draft a pass rushing DE (1), good wr (2) and find another Singletary (3)....

 

[Happy]

This isn't the year the Bills go far into the playoffs, let alone SB.

On offense, a RB, WR1, and OT are all needs.  Plus most of the players are new this year, so they still need to gel.

Defense is in much better shape, but can use a DE/edge rusher.

Next year is when they make some noise.

 

[MJS]

Impact players aren't usually available for trade mid season in the NFL, and if they are they come with big asterisks. This isn't the NHL.

[The Frankish Reich]

The NFL competitive balance is weird right now. Look at, say, fivethirtyeight’s ELO rankings:  the top 2 teams are in the AFC (Pats/Chiefs) then there’s a run of 6 NFC teams in a row, then the Texans, then a bunched together group including the Chargers, Ravens, Bills, Colts, Titans, Browns, etc. you could even talk me into putting the Jags,

Raiders, Broncos in there. Bottom line: chances for the Bills as a wild card to make it to the AFC championship (much less the Super Bowl) are slim. Not the year to mortgage the future for ....

[The Jokeman]

11 hours ago, rayray808 said:

if itʻs a steal deal... yes, make moves

 

but we are not desperate...

 

moves I would make if we are talking about dangling a first round pick:

 

1) Von Miller - would make our defense LIGHTS OUT

2) Stephon Diggs - a true WR1... brown goes to 2, beasley at slot, Duke at the 3

3) Melvin Gordon - yes we have Singletary but this dude would be the perfect compliment to Gore

There's this thing called the salary cap which prevents getting all these guys. 

[Lurker]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Next year we have brutal schedule, like the complete opposite of this year. I know many things will change between now and then, but now it is quite safe to say that if we dominate THAT schedule we are top SB contenders.

 

To save your time guys:

 

Home: Kansas, LA Chargers, Seattle, LA Rams, Cleveland/Baltimore instead of Cincinnati, Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, Denver 

Away: Oakland, Denver, SF, Arizona, Houston/Indy instead of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Dallas, NY Giants and Tennessee.

 

Road games look similar, but home games are like day and night, if we get Ravens both times all 4 games next year may be tougher than Philly this year. Miami can only get better, Jets probably too. We have like 7-8 relatively easy games this year, and there might be 3-4 like that next year.

 

Anyway, to the OP, I am against any short term moves for costly resources at all. Just keep building team through draft, sign our own do reasonable contracts and try to add quality in FA.

 

You make a very good point.   That schedule right now looks very, very tough.   They could actually be a better team and maybe have fewer wins than this year.   

 

Still, it feels like it's too soon to go "all in," so 2020 will be very interesting... 

[TheFunPolice]

KC is a soft one dimensional team with no defense and imo a bunch of head cases about big games and pressure

 

Other than NE there isn't an AFC team I wouldn't like our chances against

 

 

[Mat68]

Yes, the remaining schedule is laying out perfectly.  There is no reason why Buffalo cant win 10 plus games.  If they can beat NE they have an outside shot at the Division.  I would trade for an impact player on offense or defense.  

[Locomark]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree, we're probably not winning the afce this year. This was always going to be year 2 for Josh's learning curve & growing pains. Next year is when we explode. Draft a pass rushing DE (1), good wr (2) and find another Singletary (3)....

 

This is why we don't win. Be bolder. If we get to 7-1 go for 15-1. Not settle for "we can be a wild card at 11-5 and maybe win a game" mode.

We as Bills/Sabres fans always feel like there needs to be a linear winning progression. There isn't. Ask the Philly Eagles. They went from 7-9 to winning a Super bowl.. I am not saying we will win the Super Bowl. I am saying every year we make Brady not win one and Brady feel farther from the top of the heap makes it easier for him to want to retire and for us to get to the top of that heap. Be bold and not just play for wild cards !!! You can be bold without giving away a bunch of picks. New England makes trades all the time and still comes out with a ton of picks. Just don't mess with round 1 and we can do just about anything else. This team has depth and money. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Locomark

[WideNine]

Duke seemed really humble, appreciative and committed to working and keeping the life habits that have helped him both get, and embrace the chance he has to live up to his potential.

 

I am rooting for him as a person and as a fan of the way he plays the game.

Edited October 7, 2019 by WideNine

[Andrew Son]

Make a move.

 

We have a championship D.  And the stars are aligning- with our schedule and the general state of the AFC.  Opportunity is knocking.

 

Lets Go.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Of those that seem plausibly on the market, I’d entertain Diggs or Sanders.

 

AJG is no longer a value. Devante Parker on the phins night bevworth a look? 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

to This isn't the year the Bills go far into the playoffs, let alone SB.

On offense, a RB, WR1, and OT are all needs.  Plus most of the players are new this year, so they still need to gel.

Defense is in much better shape, but can use a DE/edge rusher.

Next year is when they make some noise.

 

 

With that attitude you certainly won't.

 

I disagree because you never know what tomorrow will bring.  We have no idea what will happen between now and then.  What if say we get it all together are going to really go for it and then in the 2nd pre season game Wonder Boy gets a season ending injury.  Or what if we have a good year and Daboll and Frazier get HC jobs elsewhere and we're starting off with 2 new coordinators.  Or what if Coach McDermott decides to take the HC job at Auburn?  We were there at the end of 2014 thinking we pretty much had arrived only to have our HC quit the day after the season.

 

You never have the perfect team.

 

We got darn good team now.  Let's make a run at this thing right here right now.

Edited October 7, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Magox]

Beane has shown that he is not afraid to roll the dice.  He's had some moves that have worked and others not so much, thankfully the good have been more plentiful than the bad.   

 

The moves they make should be made all within the construct of what they believe fits in their mid to long-term views.    

 

Beane will look at all positions, even the positions that we believe are rock solid because they are constantly looking to upgrade every roster spot, even if that means for higher quality depth.  The Bates trade is a perfect example of that, this was an under the radar trade that helped contribute to the victory vs. the Titans.

 

But if we are talking about splashy sort of moves, the areas of most need are:

 

D - Lineman -  Pass rushing specialist

Offensive tackle - At this stage I am not convinced Ford is a tackle and is better suited as a guard.  Nseke is pretty good but he's getting up there in age.

Wide Receiver - If Foster can regain his form and Duke Williams can continue his ascent then we may be set at the WR spot.  But those are two big IF's that won't be fully answered for at least another month or two.

 

 

[Happy]

1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

With that attitude you certainly won't.

 

I disagree because you never know what tomorrow will bring.  We have no idea what will happen between now and then.  What if say we get it all together are going to really go for it and then in the 2nd pre season game Wonder Boy gets a season ending injury.  Or what if we have a good year and Daboll and Frazier get HC jobs elsewhere and we're starting off with 2 new coordinators.  Or what if Coach McDermott decides to take the HC job at Auburn?  We were there at the end of 2014 thinking we pretty much had arrived only have our HC quit the day after the season.

 

You never have the perfect team.

 

We got darn good team now.  Let's make a run at this thing right here right now.

 

What if the sky falls?  What if pigs fly?  Most of your scenarios have about a 0% chance of happening.  The one that could happen is injuries; Josh could get a season ending injury against Miami in two weeks.  It is a risk you take.

 

We do have a good team (not elite...yet) and I agree that you never have a perfect team since that does not exist.  Right now we're still an OT, RB, and WR1 away on offense.  Plus most of the current starters on offense are in the first year in Buffalo, including the rebuilt line.  These guys need to gel a little bit more.  Josh also needs more time to develop, he's not quite there yet; that is evident just by watching the games.  Defensively, we're close and probably need a DE/edge rusher.

 

Next year is a lot more realistic to expect a deep run in the playoffs.

[dous21]

if anything the AFC looks very tough this season

 

 

Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Texans, Browns, Jags, and maybe the Titans and Chargers all will be fighting for essentially 4 playoff spots with us. 

[reddogblitz]

21 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

What if the sky falls?  What if pigs fly?  Most of your scenarios have about a 0% chance of happening.  The one that could happen is injuries; Josh could get a season ending injury against Miami in two weeks.  It is a risk you take.

 

We do have a good team (not elite...yet) and I agree that you never have a perfect team since that does not exist.  Right now we're still an OT, RB, and WR1 away on offense.  Plus most of the current starters on offense are in the first year in Buffalo, including the rebuilt line.  These guys need to gel a little bit more.  Josh also needs more time to develop, he's not quite there yet; that is evident just by watching the games.  Defensively, we're close and probably need a DE/edge rusher.

 

Next year is a lot more realistic to expect a deep run in the playoffs.

 

yeah, and next year we play the AFC West, ie KC and an improved Raiders team and the Chargers and the NFC West, ie Seattle, Rams, and 49ers.  This year we got a slumping AFC North and except for maybe Dallas and Philly, a bad NFC East.

 

Timing is everything.

 

There is no time like the present. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by reddogblitz