Daboll Run/Pass Ratios Under Center and Shotgun

[Mikie2times]

I'm not willing to say that being one sided in this stat is 100% doom. As an example, the Rams only run the ball 3% of the time in Shotgun and they seem to have a pretty damn good offense. That said I'm wondering what some of you think that have seen all the games. I don't watch as many games on TV or in person as many on the site.

 

Under Daboll this year with our QB under center we run the ball 76% of the time good for the 4th highest run ratio under center. Then in Shotgun we run only 12% of the time, good for 29th lowest run ratio in Shotgun.

 

On the surface it appears like a predictable thing to avoid, but I don't know if it's that black and white. Buffalo does fall pretty hard to the extreme. Interesting and again curious on if we look predictable based on what your seeing (for those who have watched all the games). 

 

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by KzooMike

[GreggTX]

Those numbers are indeed disturbing. Running is our strength. We should keep defenses guessing more.

[LeGOATski]

It's more about execution than surprising the defense. If they do decide to go more 50/50, it'll make the change-up that much more effective.

[CSBill]

Yeah, the eye-ball test (and now the stats) tells me its too predictable. Time to get more creative out of these formations.

Edited October 4, 2019 by CSBill

[Gugny]

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

[Nuncha]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

Don't know why he runs so many empty backfield formations.  He has a RB that is a pretty good receiver.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, Azucho98 said:

Don't know why he runs so many empty backfield formations.  He has a RB that is a pretty good receiver.

 

Not to mention a successful run game.  Why not, at the very least, make the defense have to consider the run?  

 

It frustrates me every week.

[eball]

18 minutes ago, Gugny said:

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

 

The only time the empty backfield annoys me is inside the 5 yard line.  Chan Gailey would do it all the time and it infuriated me.  I don't understand how OCs believe they have any advantage in that situation.

[H2o]

23 minutes ago, Gugny said:

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

Especially when the RB is a viable option as a receiver as well. At least line them up in the backfield and motion them out if you are passing the ball. This will make the defense tip their hand a bit as to what's going on and make a LB or S account for them. 

[Shooter McGavin]

I feel like I have yet to see under center play action this season. I’m sure it has happened but it’s very rare. As a casual viewer, I feel like it’s very easy to guess run or pass thus far. There has been multiple opportunities after running all over the defense with Singletary or Gore, and instead of mixing in PA, they go empty set and abandon the run for the rest of the game

Edited October 4, 2019 by Shooter McGavin

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

 

Yes. 

 

It's been claimed that an empty backfield helps the QB diagnose the coverage, but I think what it does more is tell the defense what they don't need to worry about.

 

The Pats were using a lot of movement just before the snap on empty backfield sets and I feel it confused Allen more than it helped him diagnose.

 

7 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I'm not willing to say that being one sided in this stat is 100% doom. As an example, the Rams only run the ball 3% of the time in Shotgun and they seem to have a pretty damn good offense. That said I'm wondering what some of you think that have seen all the games. I don't watch as many games on TV or in person as many on the site.

 

Under Daboll this year with our QB under center we run the ball 76% of the time good for the 4th highest run ratio under center. Then in Shotgun we run only 12% of the time, good for 29th lowest run ratio in Shotgun.

 

On the surface it appears like a predictable thing to avoid, but I don't know if it's that black and white. Buffalo does fall pretty hard to the extreme. Interesting and again curious on if we look predictable based on what your seeing (for those who have watched all the games). 

 

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html

 

It has been said that "surprise is the essence of attack"

Any time an offense is predictable and allows the defense to key off what they see and play the odds,  it doesn't help.

 

Is Daboll just not using self-analytics or does he think he's above them?

[Dablitzkrieg]

Game 1 they used empty backfield initially but audibled to runs, as RB's were flanked out.  But yes, I agree that play-action would be helpful

[Ethan in Cleveland]

A few things to consider.

While technically a pass, when Josh taps the ball forward to a WR who is in motion is really a running play. They have used that play a couple of times

The Bills have had no direct snaps to the RB out of a Wildcat which other teams still use.

I suspect it is easier for Josh to read the defense looking straight at it than it is when coming away from center. Especially if he has to turn his head away from the defense to execute some type of fake.

 

That said, how many of us post about needing to see more play action passes during the game. A ton of us. With a decent run game and a tendency to run 76% of the time when under center, adding more play action should work and be helpful.

 

[hemma]

Last year we were 30th in yards per game at 299.

Now we are 10th at 387.

 

I'm not 2nd guessing Daboll.

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

What's predictable is an empty backfield.  It's asinine and it pisses me off everytime I see it.

 

Why? It creates matchup problems and if its executed correctly you will have at least one guy wide open quickly most plays. I'm taking Singletary and Knox in space against most LB's 9 times out of 10 and Beasley against the #3 CB 10/10. You are trying to see what is going to happen with certain looks the D gives you and how they are going to try and defend you so that later in the game you can use these matchups to your advantage...ie, if the Bills find by going empty the Titans attempt to Knox who is split out with a LB and that LB is vulnerable in space then they are going to look to exploit that matchup.  

 

Now more than ever the NFL is about finding and exploiting matchups on a drive to drive basis and then readjusting at halftime to the other teams adjustments to those matchups. Going empty backfield helps you identify mismatches very quickly and you learn what the other team wants to do in certain coverages/concepts. It forces them to declare and play a simpler defensive scheme, likely to help Allen with his reads. Allen is also athletic enough to get out of trouble a lot of times if there are protection issues.

 

I remember watching a game where Tom Brady absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh a few years ago by going 5 wide/empty backfield and throwing almost every play in the game.  It can be effective and work, its all about execution.

Edited October 4, 2019 by matter2003

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

The only time the empty backfield annoys me is inside the 5 yard line.  Chan Gailey would do it all the time and it infuriated me.  I don't understand how OCs believe they have any advantage in that situation.

Yeah especially in that compressed area of the field, letting the other team know a run is off the board is pretty much like freely giving them the advantage on the play. Unless you do some type of Jet motion that could give the D qualms on handing the ball off or doing that little pop pass, etc...

Edited October 4, 2019 by matter2003

[PaattMaann]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

The only time the empty backfield annoys me is inside the 5 yard line.  Chan Gailey would do it all the time and it infuriated me.  I don't understand how OCs believe they have any advantage in that situation.

 

if you have a running threat at QB though it still keeps it all in play

[Mango]

I’m actually less concerned with the “predictability”. And more concerned why we aren’t throwing from under center more. 

 

If I had to guess it is so Josh can see the field better in shotgun. Also his poor footwork may be a liability under center. I could be wrong, according to my GF, that happens a lot. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, hemma said:

Last year we were 30th in yards per game at 299.

Now we are 10th at 387.

 

I'm not 2nd guessing Daboll.

 

That damn eye ? test.  It seems like the Bills are not running the ball yet they are.  

 

It seems Daboll likes to come out with 7 - 10 straight games pass plays and yet the rushing yards are there w/o Josh being the leading rusher.  

 

 

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

I’m actually less concerned with the “predictability”. And more concerned why we aren’t throwing from under center more. 

 

If I had to guess it is so Josh can see the field better in shotgun. Also his poor footwork may be a liability under center. I could be wrong, according to my GF, that happens a lot. 

 

That you’re a liability under center (ballzack) 

or you are a lousy dancer and have two left Feet ?  

[SCBills]

I think Singletary missing two games, Foster and his injury limiting playaction attempts along with OT’s that don’t seem to hold up long enough to give time for long passes all have played a part in the scheme.  

 

Bottom Line though... we move the ball.  Top 10 in yardage per game. 

 

Under-Center/Shotgun... Run/Pass ratio.... whatever.   The main thing we need to fix is the mistakes.