Josh Allen - Accuracy on the Long Ball

[LSHMEAB]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I think so too.  Sure he has blind squirrel hit a few, but he consistently over or under throws most of them.  The dude can throw it a country mile, we're just not real sure where it's gonna come down.

 

Up until Sunday and early in the 2nd half he has looked dead on on the short to mid throws.  Concentrate the offense around that and pounding the rock. Throw a few long ones each game to keep the D honest.  You might get PI on one.  But don't count on this being a big part of our O.

Right. Deep ball accuracy would be a bonus, but he needs to get back to where he was before the 2nd half against Cincy on the short/intermediate throws. That's where my optimism really grew. The footwork is an issue on the deep balls and this is a worthwhile topic, but I just want to see him hitting the gimmies like he was for 2.5 games.

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Maybe I am mis-remembering but wasn't that the only ball he was good at beginning of last year? What the hell happened to it and why is he overthrowing by 5 yards  while under-throwing it by a few as well. I have no explanation for this whatsoever but for this offense to click, he REALLY needs to keep teams honest and hit some of these....like how about one? Besides his amazing runs and the the throw he makes on the run from time to time, what throw can he actually make now?

 

This is not to bash the guy at all, I seriously want to know where that long-ball went....

Maybe he has not been throwing it in practice much, concentrating on his short and mid range stuff so he’s rusty???

[oldmanfan]

14 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

But that was double coverage and shouldn't have been thrown. His only accurate deep throw all season should have been a pick.

Stop it.  The pick to Brown where he didn't see McCourty was right there as well.  Hit Brown in the hands but McCourty made a good play.

 

I swear this kid just cannot win around here.  How many people were screaming when Taylor was here that they'd accept INT,s, that the QB should not be afraid to take shots down the field, that a long pick, is like a punt anyway, and on and on and on.   The difference with his long throws this season to me are several fold:  one, he is throwing a lot of them while he's scrambling and isn't able to set his mechanics properly; two, he is throwing too late and into coverage when he does, especially when scrambling to the right side, and that is the type of recurrent mistake you have to coach out of him; and three, WRs aren't adjusting well.  Take any NFL QB and put him on a field nd have him try to hit a small target from 40 yards away, and they won't be as precise or accurate.  Long completions are as much the QB putting the ball in a place where the receiver can make a play, AND the receiver seeing the ball flight and adjusting to that. 

 

They need to continue working the short patterns, Josh needs to continue his development in recognizing coverages pre-snap and go where the correct reacd is, some play action perhaps.  As those things progress, the deep balls will come.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Didnt seem to have a problem with it last year

 

...and how could what should be a fundamental issue not be corrected by Palmer and/or Dorsey?...........

[TallskiWallski83]

Allen's got a cannon for an arm and most of his long balls are overthrows. He needs to raise the trajectory of his throw to give his wide out more time to adjust their speed to the ball. I think a lot of his throws deep are too low and too fast 

[london_bills]

1 minute ago, TallskiWallski83 said:

Allen's got a cannon for an arm and most of his long balls are overthrows. He needs to raise the trajectory of his throw to give his wide out more time to adjust their speed to the ball. I think a lot of his throws deep are too low and too fast 

Yeah I think it becomes a mental thing. He did that on one of the Jones targets against the pats and it was behind the receiver and picked. 

[TallskiWallski83]

39 minutes ago, london_bills said:

Yeah I think it becomes a mental thing. He did that on one of the Jones targets against the pats and it was behind the receiver and picked. 

That interception was due to him not setting his feet and throwing off his back foot. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Stop it.  The pick to Brown where he didn't see McCourty was right there as well.  Hit Brown in the hands but McCourty made a good play.

 

I swear this kid just cannot win around here.  How many people were screaming when Taylor was here that they'd accept INT,s, that the QB should not be afraid to take shots down the field, that a long pick, is like a punt anyway, and on and on and on.   The difference with his long throws this season to me are several fold:  one, he is throwing a lot of them while he's scrambling and isn't able to set his mechanics properly; two, he is throwing too late and into coverage when he does, especially when scrambling to the right side, and that is the type of recurrent mistake you have to coach out of him; and three, WRs aren't adjusting well.  Take any NFL QB and put him on a field nd have him try to hit a small target from 40 yards away, and they won't be as precise or accurate.  Long completions are as much the QB putting the ball in a place where the receiver can make a play, AND the receiver seeing the ball flight and adjusting to that. 

 

They need to continue working the short patterns, Josh needs to continue his development in recognizing coverages pre-snap and go where the correct reacd is, some play action perhaps.  As those things progress, the deep balls will come.

You didn't hear me say that about Taylor, so be careful about conflation. Secondly, I love Allen's potential, but he has been unqualifiedly inaccurate on deep throws this season through four games. My view is that he doesn't put enough air under his deep throws and they have too much velocity, and as a consequence even a 4.35 guy like Brown can't get under them. The only way they're going to work is if they're pinpoint accurate (an extremely high bar on a throw going 30-40 yards downfield), and that's not the case with most deep throwers who throw balls that give their receivers a chance to catch up. He's fine on the deep intermediate stuff, though, which is good and a real asset. It's largely why they've moved the pretty ball well all season. 

 

Anyway, he needs to get better around the endzone along with the aforementioned deep-throw bombs. He hasn't thrown an accurate pass into the EZ on a contested throw or even  seen the coverage in the EZ well all season (he looks confused a lot and breaks to run most of the time), and that's a fundamental skill. His TD throws were the back shoulder deep-intermediate throw to Brown, a glorified handoff to Mackenzie, and an uncontested throw to Knox. He has to get better at these things; they're the skills that separate the game-changing QBs from the guys who cycle through the NFL in 4-5 year careers as starters. I think (hope, really) that he will given the physical talent.  

Edited October 3, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BigDingus]

20 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Maybe I am mis-remembering but wasn't that the only ball he was good at beginning of last year? What the hell happened to it and why is he overthrowing by 5 yards  while under-throwing it by a few as well. I have no explanation for this whatsoever but for this offense to click, he REALLY needs to keep teams honest and hit some of these....like how about one? Besides his amazing runs and the the throw he makes on the run from time to time, what throw can he actually make now?

 

This is not to bash the guy at all, I seriously want to know where that long-ball went....

 

You are mis-remembering. 

Statistically he was actually DEAD LAST in deep ball accuracy last year. Nobody was worse.

He's just continuing that this year, only this time it's more noticeable because there's quite a few times our WR's are open downfield & he's still missing them (just as often under throwing them as over throwing them).

Even worse is all the times he didn't even see the open man down field. Those plays where there's a likely TD or at worst, a giant gain, and Allen's back there running around locked on to his 1st read, then taking a sack or just throwing a low percentage pass.

[london_bills]

59 minutes ago, TallskiWallski83 said:

That interception was due to him not setting his feet and throwing off his back foot. 

But he's set his feet on some of the deep balls he's missed right?

 

I take your point technically but it has to be in his head aswell, TOO many missed to be just a technique thing.

Edited October 3, 2019 by london_bills

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You didn't hear me say that about Taylor, so be careful about conflation. Secondly, I love Allen's potential, but he has been unqualifiedly inaccurate on deep throws this season through four games. My view is that he doesn't put enough air under his deep throws and they have too much velocity, and as a consequence even a 4.35 guy like Brown can't get under them. The only way they're going to work is if they're pinpoint accurate (an extremely high bar on a throw going 30-40 yards downfield), and that's not the case with most deep throwers who throw balls that give their receivers a chance to catch up. He's fine on the deep intermediate stuff, though, which is good and a real asset. It's largely why they've moved the pretty ball well all season. 

 

Anyway, he needs to get better around the endzone along with the aforementioned deep-throw bombs. He hasn't thrown an accurate pass into the EZ on a contested throw or even  seen the coverage in the EZ well all season (he looks confused a lot and breaks to run most of the time), and that's a fundamental skill. His TD throws were the back shoulder deep-intermediate throw to Brown, a glorified handoff to Mackenzie, and an uncontested throw to Knox. He has to get better at these things; they're the skills that separate the game-changing QBs from the guys who cycle through the NFL in 4-5 year careers as starters. I think (hope, really) that he will given the physical talent.  

So what you’re saying is that it’s not accuracy, on the deep ball, it’s throwing it higher so the receiver can adjust to it.  Which is what I said.

 

I also think he’ll be fine in the end zone.  More of that is patterns than throws.

[Mikey152]

There is a reason why Jones, who isn't particularly fast, is the one who is open on deep balls...It's because he's left in single coverage by the defense, almost daring Josh to throw it.

 

I think it's pretty clear by now that Zay has poor ball skills.  

 

Honestly, I think a lot of you WAY overrate the ability of a quarterback, any quarterback, to place a football 40+ yards downfield.  On a deep ball like that, their job is to put it in a general area with enough air to allow their WR to make a play.  On a ball that is "overthrown" by 5 yards, sometimes the QB leads the WR too much, but often times the WR misjudged the football or looked up for too long. 

 

Maybe it's easier to think about a sport like baseball...speed is an asset in centerfield, but there are tons of examples of fast guys that don't reach baseballs that guys slower than them make plays on, simply due to the fact that some people are better at tracking the ball in the air.  Zay Jones has horrible ball skills, pretty much at all levels.  

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

So what you’re saying is that it’s not accuracy, on the deep ball, it’s throwing it higher so the receiver can adjust to it.  Which is what I said.

 

I also think he’ll be fine in the end zone.  More of that is patterns than throws.

No offense (really), but I read your post that I responded to again, but you didn't say that at all. Maybe you said it elsewhere; if so, I simply didn't see it.

 

Also, accuracy (or the lack thereof) IS a part of it. If you're going to throw it like he does, it's OK if you're accurate. He just isn't. He was last year on some very nice throws to Foster. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Brand J]

He was missing on his deep balls versus air at his pro day, so I’m not surprised he’s missing them when 300 pound dudes are trying to sack him. That’ll be the next skillset he needs to develop.