Is Tennessee any good? ATL's missed opportunity (analytics and tangential musings)

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Listening to podcasts I've heard the Titans casted as an unpredictable, up-and-down team. Which Titans team will show up, which Marcus Mariota will show up? They've had some low lows (against Jacksonville) and of course a couple wins, but how impressive were they really?

 

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp, an analytics guy who consults for multiple NFL teams and professional bettors, about the Titans win over the Falcons on Sunday.

 

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Remember, personnel groupings are in RB-TE format. “12” personnel is 1 RB, 2 TE (and by default, 2 WR, as you take 5 minus the sum of each digit (1+2) to determine the number of WRs).
 

 

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ATLANTA FAILED TO ADAPT

On the season, the Tennessee Titans’ pass defense held opponents to a mere 38% success rate and 6.2 YPA in 11 personnel and recorded 6 sacks in 87 drop backs (7%) with a 4:4 TD:INT allowed. But to 12 personnel, opposing offenses recorded a 71% success rate, 9.1 YPA, and a 144 passer rating, with a 3:0 TD:INT ratio.

Entering the game, the Falcons passing offense was mediocre from 11 personnel (49% success, 7.1 YPA) but very good from 12 (60% success, 8.4 YPA). On Sunday, despite this being a strength on weakness matchup should the Falcons use more 12, they actually used less 12.

They passed from 12 only 10% of attempts (YTD were at 12%). Passes from 11 produced a 48% success rate, with 7.3 YPA and 5 sacks on 46 drop backs (11%) while passes from 12 produced a 50% success rate with 7.7 YPA and 0 sacks on 6 drop backs.

Expanding the sample, all 3+ WR passes produced a 46% success rate and 7.3 YPA (with 5 sacks). All max-2 WR passes produced a 60% success rate with 8.2 YPA (and zero sacks).
 

 

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/week-4-personnel-grouping-analysis/

 

Tennessee has been terrible defending the pass from two-TE sets, Atlanta's O has been good from that set, and yet they only used it 10% of their passes, instead using 3-wide, a strength for the Titans D. I'm not sure how that happens in today's environment, how coaching staffs are unaware of their opponents' strengths and weaknesses and ready to gameplan accordingly. Matt Ryan has been much-maligned this year but I think he's a good quarterback, I don't know if Atlanta puts their people in the best position to succeed. Another example of this is something Chris Simms talks about all the time, that Atlanta calls the Seattle defense, Cover 3 press bail, over and over every week.

 

Everybody who plays against Atlanta's defense knows exactly what to expect and can come prepared to beat it. Simms has talked about how after Monte Kiffin and Tony Dungy sprang the Tampa 2 on the league and dominated offenses, the scheme spread throughout the league, sometimes via Tampa's own people being hired away. So you end up with 5, 6, 7, 8 teams in the league primarily running the scheme and any well-coached offense amasses a rolodex of plays to beat it. There's no perfect defensive call, they all have weaknesses if the offense can get into the right play at the right time, which becomes easier the more repetitive and predictable the defense is.

 

The same thing that happened to the Tampa 2 years ago is happening to the Seattle defense now as, even with Ken Norton Jr. fired and back in Seattle, it's currently run by 4+ teams (Seattle, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Chargers, plus Cowboys have Kris Richard as passing game coordinator), so it's not catching any decent offense unprepared anymore. Additionally, from what I've read about Cover 3 press bail, it seems much of the value of the system is that it looks like Cover 1 MAN press before dropping into a Cover 3 zone, disguising the look and baiting man coverage beaters from the offense. But such underlying drivers don't always translate when subordinate coaches leave a place to install the same scheme-- I'm not sure how much man defense Atlanta actually plays to make the Cover 3 press work as well as it can, meaning teams can, with confidence, come prepared to beat that Cover 3.

 

Another reason why the Titans should have been fully prepared to beat Cover 3 press:  they were coming off a loss to their division rival Jaguars in which they scored just 7 points against former Seahawks' DL Coach Todd Wash' defense and surrendered NINE sacks.

 

On one side of the ball, Atlanta ignored and squandered their strength vs. Titans weakness in 12 personnel, on the other side, Mariota and the Titans took advantage of a predictable Falcons defense they had just seen the previous week (and twice every year).

 

Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott will not be so generous.

 

Googling Dan Quinn brings up several articles about his time in Atlanta winding down. In stark contrast to the repetitive Falcons scheme, Simms talks all the time about how McDermott tailors the "rules" of his zone defenses to each weekly gameplan to the point that when he watches the film, it seems there's always a Bills defender dropping into the exact spot the quarterback wants to go with the ball. I've seen McDermott diagnose and own Adam Gase over the years, and now I've seen him diagnose and own the offense of Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady, so how are Marcus Mariota and OC Arthur Smith going to fare? I'm thinking more like their Jacksonville performance than Atlanta.

 

The Titans other win was a surprise over Cleveland opening day. When Freddie Kitchens took over for Hue Jackson last year, it was a re-dedication to two-TE sets, running the ball and using play action that got Baker Mayfield and the Browns going. But in 2019, with the Odell Beckham addition and all the hype in the world, Kitchens switched strategies to using a ton of 3-WR sets (91% of their pass attempts through 3 weeks!), looking to play through their passing game. After a rough start, everyone is excited about Cleveland's big victory over Baltimore. This from the Warren Sharp article linked above:

 

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THE BROWNS WENT BACK TO KITCHENS' ROOTS

The biggest mover was the Cleveland Browns. Prior to Week 4, the Browns used 11 personnel on 84% of their offensive plays, second-most in the NFL.

In Week 4 against the Ravens, a team that struggles against 11, the Browns used only 59% 11 personnel. Compare the rates and performance from Weeks 1-3 to Week 4:

Passes:

From 11 (Weeks 1-3):  91% of all passes, 7.5 YPA, 36% success rate

From 11 (Week 4): 75% of all passes, 9.6 YPA, 46% success rate

From 12 (Weeks 1-3): 6% of all passes, 8.3 YPA, 71% success rate

From 12 (Week 4): 22% of all passes, 17.0 YPA, 71% success rate

Rushes:

From 11 (Weeks 1-3):  71% of all rushes, 4.5 YPC, 35% success rate

From 11 (Week 4): 41% of all rushes, 4.3 YPC, 33% success rate

From 12 (Weeks 1-3): 25% of all rushes, 3.2 YPC, 25% success rate

From 12 (Week 4): 48% of all rushes, 10.0 YPC, 57% success rate

The Browns called as many runs (17 att) from heavy sets (12 and 13 personnel) against the Ravens as they had called over the entire three prior games (17 att). And they were very creative with these runs. Prior success of runs from heavy sets produced a 24% success rate and 3.1 YPC. Against the Ravens, they produced a 59% success rate and 8.4 YPC on 17 rushes, with 3 rushing touchdowns.

Prior to week 4, the Browns’ problem when passing had been a reluctance to do what made them great under Freddie Kitchens in 2018, which was passing from heavy sets.

In 2018, the Kitchens-led Browns offense averaged a 46% success rate, 8.3 YPA and a 102 rating from 3+ WR sets. But it was ultra-dangerous passing from 12 (67% success, 9.6 YPA) and 13 personnel (67% success, 11.7 YPA).

So in Week 4, the Browns used 11 personnel to pass much less (75%, down from 91%). These passes were predictably more productive against the Ravens defense (which is bad vs 11) than prior weeks, but where the Browns really gashed the Ravens was from 12 personnel passes. They used it 22% of the time, much closer to 2018 levels, and gained 17.0 YPA with a 71% success rate.

 

 

Point being, the Titans didn't play the same Browns team on opening day that just won in Baltimore. The Titans have been unable to defend 12 personnel but both teams they beat ignored this weakness, instead playing into their strength of defending 3-wide. (As an aside, the Browns getting their formula back is a super interesting development to follow in the AFC going forward)

 

All told I think there's a damn good chance we're 4-1 with two weeks to appetize for Dolphin sushi (thanks eball)! It should still be another defensive grinder but I think Daboll will be prepared and will run plenty of 12 and I'm feeling good about the matchup. After the last 20 years it's refreshing to feel like our coaching gives us the edge.

 

Be loud, Bills Mafia!

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by 2020 Our Year For Sure

[Augie]

Let Dawson Knox become a national name! 

[CSBill]

Super informative. I hope your conclusion is correct.

[Big Turk]

sounds like they have good DB's but you can take advantage of their LB's in coverage, so when you bring in 11 Personnel and they counter by bringing in an extra DB, it plays to their advantage but when you go heavier with the second tight end, they are in a bind.  They could take a risk and go nickel but that would leave them susceptible to the run. If they stay in their base package, that likely means you have a mismatch with their LB covering someone.  

 

It's why I love football so much...it's the closest thing in sports to chess.  So many matchups to diagnose on each play, so much that goes into winning and losing, so much that boils down to doing the right thing at the right time...it's just an unbelievably intellectual "dance" of moving parts and pieces

Edited October 2, 2019 by matter2003

[aristocrat]

somebody tell lee smith if he has another penalty he rides home in the wheel well of the plane

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They are a fringe playoff team much like us.

 

Should be a close game but turnovers could make the game a route. 

 

I think we are more than a fringe playoff team.  i think we are actually a good team.

[whatdrought]

Obviously I don’t want to look past this, but this feels like an definite win to me... we just made Tom Brady look like Marcus Mariota on a bad day. I expect our defense will stifle them. That being said, if this does go poorly for us, I think it’ll be Daboll getting too cute and playing around instead of just running the damn ball. 

[GunnerBill]

Our defense has some of the same principles as the "Seattle" D - McDermott's base package is cover 3 but they do a good job of mixing their coverages and disguising on the back end (and they just have much better talent than Atlanta on the back end of the defense).

 

On offense Daboll runs a fair bit of 12 personnel and there is a good opportunity for the Bills to take advantage of Tennessee's struggles against those formations. And if it gets Dawson Knox on the field and Zay Jones off the field that is a win.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Is Tennessee   any good..... 

 

Beat the 2-2 Browns (that seemed to be in disarray and may still be) 

Lost to the 2-2 Colts

Lost to the 2-2 Jaguars (with a rookie QB MINSHEW)  

Beat the 1-3 Falcons  (who are having a horrible year)  

 

Ranked - 

# 15th Defense in total yards

# 23rd Offense in total yards

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Our defense has some of the same principles as the "Seattle" D - McDermott's base package is cover 3 but they do a good job of mixing their coverages and disguising on the back end (and they just have much better talent than Atlanta on the back end of the defense).

 

On offense Daboll runs a fair bit of 12 personnel and there is a good opportunity for the Bills to take advantage of Tennessee's struggles against those formations. And if it gets Dawson Knox on the field and Zay Jones off the field that is a win.

Yes. Daboll throws so much at a defense and gives them a lot to prepare for. And for the first time in a VERY long time we have multiple TEs worth using. Whereas the Jets personnel led us to come out throwing, this is a game for heavy sets, Gore/Singletary and play action pass, and the coaching staff has the adaptability to play either way.

55 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

sounds like they have good DB's but you can take advantage of their LB's in coverage, so when you bring in 11 Personnel and they counter by bringing in an extra DB, it plays to their advantage but when you go heavier with the second tight end, they are in a bind.  They could take a risk and go nickel but that would leave them susceptible to the run. If they stay in their base package, that likely means you have a mismatch with their LB covering someone.  

 

It's why I love football so much...it's the closest thing in sports to chess.  So many matchups to diagnose on each play, so much that goes into winning and losing, so much that boils down to doing the right thing at the right time...it's just an unbelievably intellectual "dance" of moving parts and pieces

The third CB on their depth chart is Adoree' Jackson, a former 1st round pick who has a good PFF grade for what that's worth. I think you're on to something, keeping them in their 3-4 base seems the way to go.

[SoCal Deek]

This game goes one of two ways. The Bills defense completely shuts them down and we ride our veteran backup QB to a workmanlike performance. Efficient and methodical, get on the plane and come home for the next month. Or...fall totally flat, thinking more about last Sunday than this Sunday and live to regret an October trip to Nashville come this January. Let’s pray for the former, not the latter. 

 

PS: Well coached teams do the former.

[H2o]

Tennessee is a good team. The game against Jax was during constant rain. That Jax DL was getting to Mariota on almost every snap as well. Tennessee gets Taylor Lewan back this week which will help to bolster their OL. This game is no cake-walk. Our defense will have to be disciplined and plug all their lanes on the interior. Henry is a north and south type of runner. If you can make him have to move laterally then you can contain him. Their WR group is solid and fairly deep all the way to the 4th option. They have Delaney Walker at TE. If we want to win we will have to play a complete game in all phases, especially since we are on the road. We won't have Josh around to pull his 4th Quarter heroics, even if those heroics were necessary due to his mistakes earlier in the game. It would be really nice to have Singletary back this week, but I don't know if we will. We can play with and beat anyone imo, but the mistakes will need to be limited and we have to play our game. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

45 minutes ago, H2o said:

Tennessee is a good team. The game against Jax was during constant rain. That Jax DL was getting to Mariota on almost every snap as well. Tennessee gets Taylor Lewan back this week which will help to bolster their OL. This game is no cake-walk. Our defense will have to be disciplined and plug all their lanes on the interior. Henry is a north and south type of runner. If you can make him have to move laterally then you can contain him. Their WR group is solid and fairly deep all the way to the 4th option. They have Delaney Walker at TE. If we want to win we will have to play a complete game in all phases, especially since we are on the road. We won't have Josh around to pull his 4th Quarter heroics, even if those heroics were necessary due to his mistakes earlier in the game. It would be really nice to have Singletary back this week, but I don't know if we will. We can play with and beat anyone imo, but the mistakes will need to be limited and we have to play our game. 

 

Good as in they don't totally suck but are not great either.