BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 Vlookup issues... 2 1
Bangarang Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Posted October 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low. It's mostly due to his (Allen's) turnover % and yards per touch. The order tends to work better as the sample size grows. I suspect the turnovers will come down throughout the season, just as I suspect Lamar's TD% will come down as well. 1
Bangarang Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: It's mostly due to his (Allen's) turnover % and yards per touch. The order tends to work better as the sample size grows. I suspect the turnovers will come down throughout the season, just as I suspect Lamar's TD% will come down as well. I don’t expect Lamar to continue his pace and throw 40 TDs this year. Not sure I can say the same about Allen and his turnovers. 1
BillsFan17 Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. 1
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 Mariota’s numbers remind me of Tyrod’s. I’m Probably way of base.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: wow, Goff 4.27 YPA....Yikes ? I missed a game. Thank you! Corrected image to follow! It was a vlookup error on my part. I double checked everyone's attempts, yards, tds, and ints for this go-around. Goff and Bridgewater seemed to get screwed up. My bad! Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 Explanation
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 It's not good to play QB for the Miami Dolphins. Also with a small sample size it hurts to have played the NE Pats. Serious question - do you factor in junk yardage? Jackson is very high on the list but the last two weeks he's thrown a couple of TD's and gained a lot of yardage AFTER the game was decided. Do you take that into consideration or is it just to subjective a parameter to assess? As an aside I like your system.
uticaclub Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low. Really, I was actually expecting Allen to be lower 1
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. Just like Favre in his 3rd year (19 TD's & 24 INT's)!
Mark Long Beach Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? Yeah, In a small sample size, the elite defenses tend to show up big. Buffalo: 24-Dalton 27 Eli (no Darnald) NE: 25 J Allen 33 Ruthlessburger 35 L Falk 36 Fitzpatrick I omitted Tom Brady at number 4 although it's clear how strong his stats are as we made him have a miserable game against us. 1 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Posted October 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: It's not good to play QB for the Miami Dolphins. Also with a small sample size it hurts to have played the NE Pats. Serious question - do you factor in junk yardage? Jackson is very high on the list but the last two weeks he's thrown a couple of TD's and gained a lot of yardage AFTER the game was decided. Do you take that into consideration or is it just to subjective a parameter to assess? As an aside I like your system. Thanks! To your question, yes. It's all derived from the raw stats and I don't modify them. The final column, which is my part, is based on efficiency stats and not raw numbers, so between that and the fact that every QB has a bit of garbage time I just leave the numbers as is. 1
Boatdrinks Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. Because he doesn’t appear to be a simpleton. He will probably realize that he has to stop the unforced errors or he will be out of the league in short order. Who knows, though? Maybe he’s a dunce. 48 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Mariota’s numbers remind me of Tyrod’s. I’m Probably way of base. You’re not. Watching Mariotta play reminds me of watching Tyrod at QB. 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Posted October 1, 2019 53 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. I don't think he'll have Tyrod or Rodgers like turnover numbers, but week 1 had several unlucky breaks and those tend to even out over the course of a season.
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. He's a turnover machine, I don't see that ever changing tbh. 1
Boatdrinks Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: He's a turnover machine, I don't see that ever changing tbh. Pretty cool that you can see this. Tell me, who do you see as the next QB of the Bills , since Allen will play himself out of the league?
BringBackOrton Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? I have to say, your ranking system almost always holds up to scrutiny. Well done as always. Has Dak been this high in the past? I feel like he’s been quietly efficient since his rookie campaign but he just gets crucified because he wasn’t “great” the year Zeke missed time. 1
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Posted October 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Thanks! To your question, yes. It's all derived from the raw stats and I don't modify them. The final column, which is my part, is based on efficiency stats and not raw numbers, so between that and the fact that every QB has a bit of garbage time I just leave the numbers as is. Fair enough and in the end it should average out over 16 games. My sense is that Jackson is benefiting big time from that after 4 games. As an aside, QB's on good teams may not see as much garbage time yardage/TD's to pad their stats as QB's on teams that get blown out. But I can't see an easy way to incorporate this data without adding a potential bias.
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