A sampling of other QB’s early career stats

[Buffalo Boy]

    I can’t say I was completely surprised by Josh Allen’s day yesterday. He looked like a young QB, in over his head, who was often  unable to process what he was seeing.

    When we drafted him we knew he was a project which needed a lot of fundamental development. Yesterday we saw that on full display.

     I also am not surprised by the level of dismay and panic on this board. Many on here want him to be a finished product before he’s played one full season of NFL games. 

     It got me thinking of some other QBs I’ve watched in the past who had to fight through some rough seasons as they learned on the job. 

     The first one I thought of was Drew Brees.

     His second season ‘02 : 17 TD 16 Ints. 8-8

     His third season.     ‘03:  11 TD 15 Ints. 2-9

   He balled out the next season but got the knee injury. Rivers was already behind him so he was scooped up by the Saints. 

 

      Troy Aikman is next.

       His second season ‘90: 11 TD 18 Ints  7-8

       His third season.     ‘91: 11 TD 10 Ints 7-5

    

      Then there was Brett Favre     

      His second season ‘92: 18 TD 13 Ints 8-5

      His third season.     ‘93: 19 TD 24 Ints 9-7

Farve to me is an easy comparison because they both throw stupid passes that drive everyone crazy from poor platforms.

 

       Finally, our own Beloved Jimbo

       First NFL season was ‘86. I’m including the first season because he had balled out crazy talk time in the USFL and I feel like you couldn’t really call him a Rookie with that much “ Pro” experience. 

       His first season  ‘86: 22 TD 17 Ints 4-12

       His third season ‘88: 15 TD 17 Ints 12-4

       I didn’t include the 87 scab season.

 

    I get that these aren’t apples to apples comparisons on certain levels. I think the point is still valid though. I believe any of us would take the QBs these guys became with some rough starts.?

    Josh is still a rough around the edges QB who hasn’t become comfortable with proper mechanics. He also still can’t read defenses quickly. Sometimes he can but not on a regular basis as was explicitly on display in the first half yesterday.

    I’m not giving him a pass but I do believe Daboll’s first half of the game was called poorly in terms of Josh. He needed to just get the ball out quickly, over and over. I’m ASSUMING that some of those plays were longer developing without an outlet. The line was not giving him the time to stand back there and he clearly couldn’t pull the trigger. Add the blitzing he was facing and he was toast.

    Part of that was also on the receivers not getting open. Many of us were worried about this receiving Corp going into the season and it looks like it was warranted. Brown, Beasely and Knox are the only ones I like. Andre Roberts should be getting more time. I have to believe he should be able to run a deep route better than Zay with a greater expectation of catching the ball.

     It’s a long season and we are in good position at the quarter mark. We lost a close game to a perennial SB contender. This hurt but wasn’t a surprise.

     This team needs more talent in key positions and like the aforementioned QBs who blossomed, Josh needs more time, practice, proper coaching and all important game experience. 

    Now is not the time to even BEGIN to think of pulling the plug.

[Virgil]

Add fumbles and sacks to take us out of field goal range

[Comebackkid]

I remember there was talk for years of farve was ever going to be any good.   Scatter shot arm, took to many chances, to many ints, to many dumb decisions. 

 

[dous21]

Most of these QB's played 20-25 years ago lol. I'm not sure what point you are trying to prove comparing them. The league and the QB position has changed dramatically. 

 

You should be comparing them to other recent young QB's. Right now Allen is being outplayed by Gardner Minshew. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by dous21

[Bangarang]

Why do people insist on comparing QB stats from today to those in 1990? It’s stupid.

 

Back in 1990, only 6 QBs had a passer rating over 90 and only 2 threw more than 30 TDs. Jim Kelly led the league in completion percentage with 63% and only 2 others had 60% or better.

 

You can’t compare stats from different eras and hope to make some logical comparison. 
 

Allen may be good or he may stay exactly the way he is. Troy Ailman’s stats from from nearly 30 years ago proves nothing. Blindly looking at a few stats without any kind of context also proves nothing. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Bangarang

[Buffalo Boy]

2 minutes ago, Comebackkid said:

I remember there was talk for years of farve was ever going to be any good.   Scatter shot arm, took to many chances, to many ints, to many dumb decisions. 

 

Right up to the end, that was his game.

[Comebackkid]

Just now, Buffalo Boy said:

Right up to the end, that was his game.

Yep, his game was always big risk big reward.   Even the game Brady threw the 4ints against us he never stopped trying to push it down the field. 

[Buffalo Boy]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Why do people insist on comparing QB stats from today to those in 1990? It’s stupid.

 

Back in 1990, only 6 QBs had a passer rating over 90 and only 2 threw more than 30 TDs. Jim Kelly led the league in completion percentage with 63% and only 2 others had 60% or better.

 

You can’t compare stats from different eras and hope to make some logical comparison. 

You can compare growth though. 

I agree and said so but a QB is a QB. They often suck at first, regardless of ability and then they grow into it.

One this JA shares with all these guys is self belief and competitiveness. 

 

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Boy said:

You can compare growth though. 

I agree and said so but a QB is a QB. They often suck at first, regardless of ability and then they grow into it.

One this JA shares with all these guys is self belief and competitiveness. 

 

QBs generally get better with time but the biggest question is how much better. There are a lot of factors that go into it. This is like saying Nathan Peterman can still go on to be great because Payton Manning threw a lot of interceptions his rookie year. There’s no correlation to be made here. 

[london_bills]

2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

QBs generally get better with time but the biggest question is how much better. There are a lot of factors that go into it. This is like saying Nathan Peterman can still go on to be great because Payton Manning threw a lot of interceptions his rookie year. There’s no correlation to be made here. 

Yes - how much better is the question.

 

You will always see flashes of the IT FACTOR if it is there. Starting to doubt it with Allen but time will further tell.

Edited October 1, 2019 by london_bills

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

You can compare growth though. 

I agree and said so but a QB is a QB. They often suck at first, regardless of ability and then they grow into it.

One this JA shares with all these guys is self belief and competitiveness. 

 

 

Your comparison is not only valid it's a valuable way to modulate our reaction to Allen's performance yesterday. 

 

The idea that you can't compare today's QB performance to those in the 1990's is flat out wrong.  INT's were bad in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and even in the 1990's.  QB's that threw more picks then TD's are struggling no matter the decade.  The stats on Favre you posted are particularly relevant IMO.  I suspect that after throwing 19 TD's & 24 INT's in his 3rd season there were a lot of Green Bay fans wondering if he was the guy.

 

 

18 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Add fumbles and sacks to take us out of field goal range

 

It would be interesting to see Favre's stats on fumbles & sacks his first couple of seasons.  I bet there uglier then Allen's are.

 

 

[Big Turk]

The problem is the game has significantly changed in the last 20 years with college concepts and spread concepts to allow young QBs a much better chance of succeeding right away...look at Kyle Allen, Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones, etc...

Edited October 1, 2019 by matter2003

[vorpma]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Your comparison is not only valid it's a valuable way to modulate our reaction to Allen's performance yesterday. 

 

The idea that you can't compare today's QB performance to those in the 1990's is flat out wrong.  INT's were bad in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and even in the 1990's.  QB's that threw more picks then TD's are struggling no matter the decade.  The stats on Favre you posted are particularly relevant IMO.  I suspect that after throwing 19 TD's & 24 INT's in his 3rd season there were a lot of Green Bay fans wondering if he was the guy.

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see Favre's stats on fumbles & sacks his first couple of seasons.  I bet there uglier then Allen's are.

 

 

Try Joe Namath especially his Super Bowl Year; the only stat that counts is the won loss column!

[The Frankish Reich]

It's a different NFL world today. The old rule was your young QB was expected to struggle for 1-3 years and then finally start producing. Elway, Manning, Favre, basically everyone but Marino.

Now for the QBs who emerge as true "franchise" guys the opposite is true. We've seen immediate results from Wilson, Watson, Mahomes (yes, he sat for a year, but was superb as soon as he actually took a snap in a real game), Prescott. Go back a while and Roethlisberger, Flacco, Brady (again, one year sitting) fit that bill too. That's not to say that some slower starters don't turn into elite QBs, but it's getting harder to find them. Goff? Who else is (arguably) in that slow starter/becomes franchise guy group?

[Virgil]

8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

It would be interesting to see Favre's stats on fumbles & sacks his first couple of seasons.  I bet there uglier then Allen's are.

 

 

 

I'm just being a dick honestly.  I don't like to compare stats from different generations.  But I know where the OP was going.  You can't cherry pick stats.  If you want to go down this path and combat all the negative Allen talk right now, you need to tackle the entire issue or total turnovers and team hurting plays

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

I'm just being a dick honestly.  I don't like to compare stats from different generations.  But I know where the OP was going.  You can't cherry pick stats.  If you want to go down this path and combat all the negative Allen talk right now, you need to tackle the entire issue or total turnovers and team hurting plays

 

Fair enough but as i recall when watching Favre he did take a lot of big sacks and had a lot of fumbles.  If I get a minute I might look it up.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

It's a different NFL world today. The old rule was your young QB was expected to struggle for 1-3 years and then finally start producing. Elway, Manning, Favre, basically everyone but Marino.

Now for the QBs who emerge as true "franchise" guys the opposite is true. We've seen immediate results from Wilson, Watson, Mahomes (yes, he sat for a year, but was superb as soon as he actually took a snap in a real game), Prescott. Go back a while and Roethlisberger, Flacco, Brady (again, one year sitting) fit that bill too. That's not to say that some slower starters don't turn into elite QBs, but it's getting harder to find them. Goff? Who else is (arguably) in that slow starter/becomes franchise guy group?

This babble doesn’t mean squat either, though. The Bills HC and brass will ultimately decide if Allen is their guy , or they will get someone else. Crusading on a message board won’t do a damn thing in this regard. Fans won’t have any part in the decision really. It’s as pointless as stats of other QBs current or past. Doesn’t have a thing to do with Josh Allen or the Bills. 

[Meatloaf63]

31 minutes ago, dous21 said:

Most of these QB's played 20-25 years ago lol. I'm not sure what point you are trying to prove comparing them. The league and the QB position has changed dramatically. 

 

You should be comparing them to other recent young QB's. Right now Allen is being outplayed by Gardner Minshew. 

Well Douche21,  most Qb’s look good playing against a crap defense with a running game that generated over 225 yards. Call us when he plays against a top defense...

[Bangarang]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

You can compare growth though. 

I agree and said so but a QB is a QB. They often suck at first, regardless of ability and then they grow into it.

One this JA shares with all these guys is self belief and competitiveness. 

 

Comparing stats of guys 25 years apart is meaningless though. It tells us nothing about how Allen will develop. All it says is that certain QBs got better. 

 

Allen could go on to be great or he could go on to be another failed QB that people anointed as the savior sooner than they should’ve. Regardless of what happens, it won’t have anything to do with what Troy Aikman did in the early 90’s.

 

You’re selling hope.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Comparing stats of guys 25 years apart is meaningless though. It tells us nothing about how Allen will develop. All it says is that certain QBs got better. 

 

Allen could go on to be great or he could go on to be another failed QB that people anointed as the savior sooner than they should’ve. Regardless of what happens, it won’t have anything to do with what Troy Aikman did in the early 90’s.

 

You’re selling hope.

To be fair it wouldn’t matter if you compare him to guys playing now either.  Each guy is different, each coaching staff they have is different, and so on.  It is fair I think to say that young QBs need to learn and develop.