Week 5: Bills (+2.5) at Titans

[mramefa]

30 minutes ago, NC Book said:

I'm received some bad news today. A friend of mine pays for NFL picks from a service. I think he paid about $800 for a seasons worth of picks. So far the picks he's been given have gone 22-5, so not too bad. Every weeks worth of picks has a their BIG RED HOT play. It's the one where you're supposed to bet the most money on, something like triple of your normal bet. And these big red hots hit about 85% of the time. And this week is the Titans. I was already a little worried about a hangover from the Patriots. Normally when a team outplays the opponent and still loses, for whatever reason, they don't play as well the following week.  The Titans are a hard team to figure out though. Obviously anything can happen. Hopefully this game falls into the 15% of red hot losers.

So 3.4 of the 4 red hot picks so far have paid off? Clearly a good enough sample size that we should go ahead and forfeit.

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, r00tabaga said:

Poor John Murphy. He tries so hard to knock Duke Williams down & pump Zay up.

He was really salty about Duke today. I don’t typically listen to that show but it was odd. 

[Bookie Man]

4 minutes ago, nrenegar said:

So 3.4 of the 4 red hot picks so far have paid off? Clearly a good enough sample size that we should go ahead and forfeit.

Yeah that's exactly what I said lol. We should forfeit... 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 minutes ago, NC Book said:

Yeah that's exactly what I said lol. We should forfeit... 

 

Some sucker actually paid those people for picks?

 

Shouldn't be gambling.

 

[Bookie Man]

16 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Some sucker actually paid those people for picks?

 

Shouldn't be gambling.

 

Haha I hear ya. I think he just got tired of losing and wanted to try something new. His record is 22-5, however. So that's 17 bets he's won. I think he does between 200 and 500 a game. So he's sitting nice right now. Lot of season left still though. These guys tend to run hot and cold. 

[Rocket94]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Some people need to get a life. I mean, I’m here WAY TOO MUCH, but I’m a Bills fan. I’m not going to an opponents site just to stir the pot. If you want to check out what they’re saying, maybe converse a bit, that’s one thing. But some guys just get their kicks by going too far. 

 

c

.

Yes...why visit other fan sites at all? What is the point. I suppose If someone wants more grief in their life.

[MrSarcasm]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

The offense does its part by scoring 21 points? How low are your expectations? 

Back up QB in. What are you expecting?

How many times has Buffalo gotten over 21 this year? My expectations are built upon history and actual numbers. What are your expectations built upon, Unicorns and Leprechauns?

 

?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I don't see any reason why it'd be easier to shut down Barkley than it would be to shut down Allen.

 

INteresting.  You don't see any physical limitations to Barkley's game?  I like Barkley, but there's a reason he got listed as #32 out of 32 backup QB in the league.

 

9 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Put any kind of pressure on Allen & cover his first read, and he starts running around almost without fail. DB's will be chomping at the bit to look good & pad their stats and will be looking for easy picks all day. 

Sure, Allen CAN make a few runs & extend plays, but he's just as likely to take a dumb sack or lob it into 3 defenders instead of throwing the ball away, just because he panics. 

 

Teams really haven't had trouble stopping Allen from rushing this year. He's good for a couple good runs a game, but nothing insane. He's averaging 7 rushes & 32 yards a game, good for just over 4 yards a carry this season. Sure, that's more than some QB's, but it's nothing spectacular, as teams have pretty much figured out it's worth being aggressive against him as he'll rarely punish you unless there's actual broken coverage downfield. 

Again, he CAN do some good things extending plays, but someone like Barkley is more likely to make you pay being that aggressive, as he knows how to read a defense & can adjust presnap to coming pressure.

 

Not only is this not a very accurate scouting assessment of Josh Allen, it's a generalization you're repeating multiple times in multiple threads now. 

 

Allen isn't rushing as much this year because he's staying in the pocket and throwing more.  That works out to ~4 more passes per game, which might not sound like a lot but it is significant (as is his 8% increase in completion %).

 

[Gugny]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

INteresting.  You don't see any physical limitations to Barkley's game?  I like Barkley, but there's a reason he got listed as #32 out of 32 backup QB in the league.

 

 

Not only is this not a very accurate scouting assessment of Josh Allen, it's a generalization you're repeating multiple times in multiple threads now. 

 

Allen isn't rushing as much this year because he's staying in the pocket and throwing more.  That works out to ~4 more passes per game, which might not sound like a lot but it is significant (as is his 8% increase in completion %).

 

 

C'mon, Hap.  You know damn well Barkley isn't the worst backup in the league.  Everything else, I agree with.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

C'mon, Hap.  You know damn well Barkley isn't the worst backup in the league.  Everything else, I agree with.

 

That's not my point.  My point is that Barkley has known physical limitations as a QB, which is a large part of that "#32 backup" assessment.   That's why I started the sentence with "I like Barkley".   I didn't mean "in a Tinder sense" - I meant in a "I don't agree with the assessment but...." sense.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's not my point.  My point is that Barkley has known physical limitations as a QB, which is a large part of that "#32 backup" assessment.   That's why I started the sentence with "I like Barkley".   I didn't mean "in a Tinder sense" - I meant in a "I don't agree with the assessment but...." sense.

 

LOL.  Gotcha.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

56 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Back up QB in. What are you expecting?

How many times has Buffalo gotten over 21 this year? My expectations are built upon history and actual numbers. What are your expectations built upon, Unicorns and Leprechauns?

 

?

 

My expectation is that an offense scores more than 21 points in the modern NFL, regardless of the team’s history. We need to stop comparing our current team to the previous Buffalo Bills seasons and start comparing them to the rest of the league. After all, that’s who we are competing against. 

 

As as far as Barkley is concerned, I’m not all that convinced their will be a drop off in production from that of Allen. 

 

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

My expectation is that an offense scores more than 21 points in the modern NFL, regardless of the team’s history. We need to stop comparing our current team to the previous Buffalo Bills seasons and start comparing them to the rest of the league. After all, that’s who we are competing against. 

 

As as far as Barkley is concerned, I’m not all that convinced their will be a drop off in production from that of Allen. 

 

 

It seems that way, but did you see last week’s game? How about the last Super Bowl? That game had “the two best teams” and scored a combined 16 points. The modern NFL is a lot of different things. I don’t gamble for a reason. 

[Boatdrinks]

51 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

My expectation is that an offense scores more than 21 points in the modern NFL, regardless of the team’s history. We need to stop comparing our current team to the previous Buffalo Bills seasons and start comparing them to the rest of the league. After all, that’s who we are competing against. 

 

As as far as Barkley is concerned, I’m not all that convinced their will be a drop off in production from that of Allen. 

 

Currently in 2019 an offense scoring 24 points per game would be in the top ten of the league. 21 ppg puts you square in the middle (Bills are currently at 19 ppg and 23rd overall). While the Bills need to improve in that category , they  are still a work in progress after a major offensive overhaul.  They  also have a top defense. So for this team, with the stout defense that they play I’d say the offense scoring 21 points should win them a lot of games. By the end of the year, I’d like for that output to be higher. 21 ppg however is respectable and not far off from the top ten. The Bills still need a couple skill position players and more O line cohesion , in addition to improved play from Josh Allen. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[EmotionallyUnstable]

33 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It seems that way, but did you see last week’s game? How about the last Super Bowl? That game had “the two best teams” and scored a combined 16 points. The modern NFL is a lot of different things. I don’t gamble for a reason. 

 

I get that, I don’t gamble either because im

broke. That being said, half the teams in the league average over 21pts a game. We haven’t. So if we go from averaging 16 points to 21 points, I don’t think that meets my expectations from a fans perspective, especially if the lose (like the scenario I was responding to).

 

lots of factors is correct. Like last weeks Bucs/Rams game. Did you see that? Blown coverages, big touch downs, things like that happen, and yet we still average 19 points. 

 

We’ve been beaten down and numbed into suffering through such terrible offense the past couple years that we see a 21 point game as a victory for the offense even despite a team loss lol

 

This is all hypotheticals obviously and maybe I’m just rambling but I’m tired of being okay with average just because our past has been so awful. Then we start blaming the one phase of the game that’s been fantastic. 

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Currently in 2019 an offense scoring 24 points per game would be in the top ten of the league. 21 ppg puts you square in the middle (Bills are currently at 19 ppg at 23rd overall). While the Bills need to improve in that category , and are still a work in progress after a major offensive overhaul.  They  also have a top defense. So for this team, with the stout defense that they play I’d say the offense scoring 21 points should win them a lot of games. By the end of the year, I’d like for that output to be higher. 21 ppg however is respectable and not far off from the top ten. The Bills still need a couple skill position players and more O line cohesion , in addition to improved play from Josh Allen. 

 

Great info here. No doubt they have room for growth and most of it rests on Allen.

 

Again though, you’re speaking in averages. So to say a 21 point game is a valiant effort would actually be an average performance by that metric (regarding the post I responded to earlier).

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

I get that, I don’t gamble either because im

broke. That being said, half the teams in the league average over 21pts a game. We haven’t. So if we go from averaging 16 points to 21 points, I don’t think that meets my expectations from a fans perspective, especially if the lose (like the scenario I was responding to).

 

lots of factors is correct. Like last weeks Bucs/Rams game. Did you see that? Blown coverages, big touch downs, things like that happen, and yet we still average 19 points. 

 

We’ve been beaten down and numbed into suffering through such terrible offense the past couple years that we see a 21 point game as a victory for the offense even despite a team loss lol

 

This is all hypotheticals obviously and maybe I’m just rambling but I’m tired of being okay with average just because our past has been so awful. Then we start blaming the one phase of the game that’s been fantastic. 

 

The D is awesome. If the offense could get up to average, we’d be in good shape, and while we’ve made strides, we still have a ways to go. As last week pointed out, NEVER forget about ST.  UGH! 

[Boatdrinks]

10 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

I get that, I don’t gamble either because im

broke. That being said, half the teams in the league average over 21pts a game. We haven’t. So if we go from averaging 16 points to 21 points, I don’t think that meets my expectations from a fans perspective, especially if the lose (like the scenario I was responding to).

 

lots of factors is correct. Like last weeks Bucs/Rams game. Did you see that? Blown coverages, big touch downs, things like that happen, and yet we still average 19 points. 

 

We’ve been beaten down and numbed into suffering through such terrible offense the past couple years that we see a 21 point game as a victory for the offense even despite a team loss lol

 

This is all hypotheticals obviously and maybe I’m just rambling but I’m tired of being okay with average just because our past has been so awful. Then we start blaming the one phase of the game that’s been fantastic. 

 

Great info here. No doubt they have room for growth and most of it rests on Allen.

 

Again though, you’re speaking in averages. So to say a 21 point game is a valiant effort would actually be an average performance by that metric (regarding the post I responded to earlier).

Where did I say a 21 point output is a valiant effort? The numbers I gave illustrate it as clearly average . With the Bills defense, average offense should win a lot of games. I’d love for last years 30 th ranked passing offense to be a top 5 scoring unit this year, but in their current form I’d venture that would be a stretch. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Just now, Augie said:

 

The D is awesome. If the offense could get up to average, we’d be in good shape, and while we’ve made strides, we still have a ways to go. As last week pointed out, NEVER forget about ST.  UGH! 

 

Yes for sure. Although we’ve put in many new pieces, it seems like they’re yet to click. 

 

I find it extremely frustrating that our defense can be so buttoned up and sound, while the offense burns times outs, lines up wrong and takes unnecessary penalties all while we can’t stop killing our selves with correctable mistakes on ST. 

 

McDermott’s attention to detail on defense is clearly evident. They are a thorough and cohesive unit. They always seem well prepared in 2019. It seems unusual that he’d allow such careless mistakes to hurt their team in the other phases. 

 

Maybe this is talent related, or possibly experience and/or coaching. Either way, I hope he gets them cleaned up. I'm not asking for 35 points every game, but at least give us a chance to be competitive by limiting those avoidable mistakes. 

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Where did I say a 21 point output is a valiant effort? The numbers I gave illustrate it as clearly average . With the Bills defense, average offense should win a lot of games. I’d love for last years 30 th ranked passing offense to be a top 5 scoring unit this year, but in their current form I’d venture that would be a stretch. 

 

You didn't. The other poster that I quoted in my initial post that you responded to projected at 24-21 loss to TEN despite an offensive effort that exceeds expectations. I was trying to explain that I didn't think 21 points should be considered exceeding expectations. 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Yes for sure. Although we’ve put in many new pieces, it seems like they’re yet to click. 

 

I find it extremely frustrating that our defense can be so buttoned up and sound, while the offense burns times outs, lines up wrong and takes unnecessary penalties all while we can’t stop killing our selves with correctable mistakes on ST. 

 

McDermott’s attention to detail on defense is clearly evident. They are a thorough and cohesive unit. They always seem well prepared in 2019. It seems unusual that he’d allow such careless mistakes to hurt their team in the other phases. 

 

Maybe this is talent related, or possibly experience and/or coaching. Either way, I hope he gets them cleaned up. I'm not asking for 35 points every game, but at least give us a chance to be competitive by limiting those avoidable mistakes. 

 

I have to keep reminding myself they are basically returning TWO starters on offense. THAT is crazy stuff!  I hope it just continues to get better. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Yes for sure. Although we’ve put in many new pieces, it seems like they’re yet to click. 

 

I find it extremely frustrating that our defense can be so buttoned up and sound, while the offense burns times outs, lines up wrong and takes unnecessary penalties all while we can’t stop killing our selves with correctable mistakes on ST. 

 

McDermott’s attention to detail on defense is clearly evident. They are a thorough and cohesive unit. They always seem well prepared in 2019. It seems unusual that he’d allow such careless mistakes to hurt their team in the other phases. 

 

Maybe this is talent related, or possibly experience and/or coaching. Either way, I hope he gets them cleaned up. I'm not asking for 35 points every game, but at least give us a chance to be competitive by limiting those avoidable mistakes. 

The self inflicted wounds seem to be the Bills biggest problem right now. Hopefully that’s a good sign. The assembled offensive talent still needs a couple pieces, but it seems they could be at least an average to slightly above unit if they clean up the unforced errors.