Have You Started To Lose Faith in Josh Allen?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Yeah, this thread may not have aged too well.

 

I'll put this out there. 

There have been several games so far this season where Allen was asked to "hang it on his arm"

1) NE: 46.4% of 28 att, 153 yds, 3 INT, Sacked 4x for 31 yds lost.  No Bueno.   A blocked punt, a missed 49 yd FG, and a Barkley INT of being competitive to the end. 
[Singletary out, Gore 109 yds rushing]

2) Iggles:, 47% of 34 att, 169 yds, 0 INT, Sacked 4x for 14 yds lost.  Not Good, but Better.   The fumble recovered for 6 pts before the half was killer. [98 yds rushing on 20 attempts]

3) Browns: 53.7% of 41 att, 260 yds, 0 INT, Sacked 1x for 6 yds.   Got the Bills the lead 2x, got us close enough for what should have been a chip-shot FG for a 3rd lead change and within reach of a long FG to tie the game at the end. [84 yds rushing on 20 attempts]

More recently:

4) Cowboys: 79% of 24 att, 231 yds, 1 INT, Sacked 4x for 27 yds lost.  A really solid game - got the lead in the 2Q and never looked back.  [124 yds rushing on 34 attempts]

 

My conclusion is that Allen is getting better, but is not quite ready to win games where we have to hang it on his arm.    Part of that, truthfully, is the team's dearth of receivers after John Brown.  If a team can take away Brown, it's been "now what?"  For the last couple games, it's been "Beasley and a contribution from a handful of guys, that's what".  Part of that is on Allen not seeing them.  Part of that is on them not being open fast enough or not able to complete their route and look around fast enough.

 

If it can become "Beasley, Singletary, McKensie, and Knox, That's What!!" I think we'll be OK.  But Beas needs to have a game like he had against the Cowboys when he's not playing his old team, and the rest have to step up.

 

Knox is up to a 61% catch percentage, but he's also still scored as 19.5% drops.

For comparison, Andrews (Ravens) is 67-68% catch percentage and 6.3% drops.  Kelce (KC) is 68% catch percentage and 5% drops.  Kittle (49ers) is 80.6% catch percentage and 0.0% drops.

 

Drops are scored as a ball that hits the receiver's hands and can be caught without "extraordinary effort".

 

It makes a big difference, especially to a QB who is not always laser accurate, to have a big TE (or 2) that can haul in everything within arms reach, much less passes he gets his hands on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

20 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Oh please.... you have to remember the context when this thread was started.  Josh had many subpar moments over the first few weeks of the season, and then play arguably his worst game at QB vs. New England.

 

I think at the time, it was a reasonable question to ask, though you can make a point that I should have considered the long term

Nope. Not reasonable.

At around start # 16(?) in his career.

Typical Veruca Salt “ I want it now, Daddy!!” over reaction.

[BringBackOrton]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Nope. Not reasonable.

At around start # 16(?) in his career.

Typical Veruca Salt “ I want it now, Daddy!!” over reaction.

Imagine, “I’m on the fence” about a QB’s success being “not reasonable.”

 

 

Edited December 2, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
inappropriate language

[Buffalo Boy]

22 minutes ago, Sunshower said:

And there will still be other bumps in the road that cause some fans to tumble off of the wagon. Until he has another good game and they pile back on again. Isn’t that how things work here?

For some ?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

43 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Imagine, “I’m on the fence” about a QB’s success being “not reasonable.”

 

 

 

It was always a dumb question to ask that early in a QBs career.  

[LyndonvilleBill]

12 minutes ago, colin said:

 

 

bro, hammer on the nail!

Guess it wasn't my old a$$ eyes... LMAO.

 

Thanks.... what's the old saying, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while....

[ngbills]

46 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You make all the bitching sound benign. it wasn't. ever.

 

Why is it bitching? It is undeniable Allen had some games in which he played poorly. The offense was struggling. Hence it is ok to discuss.

 

As I said, some prefer to look at that and say what do you expect, he has no WR or whatever to dismiss the poor play. Obviously McD/Daboll or whoever realized it as well because there have been big changes in playcalling, game management, player useage, etc. So in reality those with concerns were legit or else there would have been no changes needed. 

[Scott7975]

God help us all if we lose to the Ravens next week.  The naysayers will be back in full force.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

God help us all if we lose to the Ravens next week.  The naysayers will be back in full force.

 

In other breaking news, Water is still ***** wet

[Chandler#81]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In other breaking news, Water is still ***** wet

Do you kiss your mother with that mouth??

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Chandler#81 said:

Do you kiss your mother with that mouth??

 

Why yes.  Yes, I do.  My kid too.

 

Must get it from my dog.  Let's not discuss what she eats before kissing ME.

[VW82]

It's been interesting to experience this from the other direction. I started with little faith that he'd be a long-term answer, but by the end of last year I was hopeful. This year started off a little shakier than many wanted to admit but he's been good enough lately that he's started to engender faith from naysayers like me. He's earning it. 

 

My main quibble still lies where it always did: can he consistently make plays from inside the pocket? I don't think we have an answer for that yet. But he's doing enough elsewhere to make the doubters pause and want to wait and see what the answer is. His growth has been fun to watch.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why yes.  Yes, I do.  My kid too.

 

Must get it from my dog.  Let's not discuss what she eats before kissing ME.

 

*shudder* I know this horror all too well.

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

On 9/30/2019 at 7:45 AM, H2o said:

No, not at all. Josh had an absolutely horrible first half. He was pressing in this game like no other because he wanted to beat the Pats in front of the home fans. That led to the hero ball we all talk about at times. In playing hero ball he missed a few WIDE open guys underneath that had the potential to catch and run with the ball afterwards for big gains. He was under pressure all day though, ALL day. For all of the work done to the offensive line, you couldn't tell in pass protection most of the time. Even still let's note that on the first drive of the 2nd half he came out 6 for 6 passing with a rushing TD. I truly believe that if he had not been knocked out of the game the result would have been different. The thing that is concerning me this year is where Josh was hitting those deep routes last year, this year he is about 2-5 yards off with every throw. His short and intermediate accuracy is better for the most part, but he seems to have lost his touch on the deep ball. 

Perception is everything. In 46 less attempts Josh has the same amount of 40+ yard completions(5) this year as last year. I get what you were saying though, he was way off in the beginning of the year, but that most likely was coach telling him to be conservative and let the defense win games. Since McDermott told him to play fearless his deep ball has been much in the sense when he misses he's still giving the receiver a chance to catch a 50/50 ball. Not throwing it 5 yards too deep or too far out of bounds.

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

My conclusion is that Allen is getting better, but is not quite ready to win games where we have to hang it on his arm.    Part of that, truthfully, is the team's dearth of receivers after John Brown.  If a team can take away Brown, it's been "now what?"  For the last couple games, it's been "Beasley and a contribution from a handful of guys, that's what".  Part of that is on Allen not seeing them.  Part of that is on them not being open fast enough or not able to complete their route and look around fast enough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent post, I agree with your conclusions but from a different angle.  The game shouldn't have to hang on Josh's arm (or legs) save a handful of times each game.  And that's been a big part of his problem as he has tended to play that way.

 

IMO, he is definitely improving.  I went to the Cleveland game and while he did a great job pre-snap, he was very inconsistent with his reads and understanding the design of the play post-snap.  

I thought he improved that a lot against Dallas, that late 3rd/4th quarter down-your -throat drive has been lacking all year. 

Odds are he fails the Baltimore test but I'm not convinced anymore.  Definitely going to watch!

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

It's been interesting to experience this from the other direction. I started with little faith that he'd be a long-term answer, but by the end of last year I was hopeful. This year started off a little shakier than many wanted to admit but he's been good enough lately that he's started to engender faith from naysayers like me. He's earning it. 

 

My main quibble still lies where it always did: can he consistently make plays from inside the pocket? I don't think we have an answer for that yet. But he's doing enough elsewhere to make the doubters pause and want to wait and see what the answer is. His growth has been fun to watch.  

Just last game I saw him climb the pocket on a 3rd and 10 from the 2 yard line and fire a laser on the run to Beasley for 30 yards. I also saw him stand like a statue for seconds on a 2nd and 20 play and hit Beasley for 19 yards. That was a pretty darn good defense he did that to, in their house. Since we lost to the Pats*** in game 4 he has 13 passing TDs and only 2 INTs and adding 5 more rushing TDs. I've become comfortable with him throwing in and out of the pocket and my confidence grows weekly. The kid has grown up so much since the loss to the Pats***, to the point he looks like a completely different player.

[VW82]

2 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Just last game I saw him climb the pocket on a 3rd and 10 from the 2 yard line and fire a laser on the run to Beasley for 30 yards. I also saw him stand like a statue for seconds on a 2nd and 20 play and hit Beasley for 19 yards. That was a pretty darn good defense he did that to, in their house. Since we lost to the Pats*** in game 4 he has 13 passing TDs and only 2 INTs and adding 5 more rushing TDs. I've become comfortable with him throwing in and out of the pocket and my confidence grows weekly. The kid has grown up so much since the loss to the Pats***, to the point he looks like a completely different player.

 

He's getting better but I think if you go through all the passing plays you're going to find that a large percentage of them still come from scrambles or roll outs. His TD to Beasley is a good example. Once he escapes he's great at causing the defense to react which frees up our receivers. His decision making in those situations is getting much better. I still think he misses a lot of opportunities in the pocket though. He just doesn't always see them.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Just booting this so it ends up near ‘send Josh Allen to the Pro Bowl’ thread.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

He's getting better but I think if you go through all the passing plays you're going to find that a large percentage of them still come from scrambles or roll outs. His TD to Beasley is a good example. Once he escapes he's great at causing the defense to react which frees up our receivers. His decision making in those situations is getting much better. I still think he misses a lot of opportunities in the pocket though. He just doesn't always see them.  

 

Take a jaunt over to the Cover1 thread and look at the stuff there.

 

What they break down is how the Bills have started incorporating run-and-shoot concepts.  I had not realized that June Jones was Beasley's college coach.

 

The point is that the roll-outs are part of the play design in that system.