Have You Started To Lose Faith in Josh Allen?

[dickleyjones]

Allen has much to learn. No one should be surprised...he has very little experience compared to most. Give him time. 

[Pokebball]

On 9/30/2019 at 4:26 AM, Phil The Thrill said:

I was at the game Sunday and there was 1 reason the Bills lost the game.  They lost the game for one reason - Josh Allen.  He was absolutely putrid at QB.  I’m a big fan of Allen but he was THE reason why we lost.  
 

We’re starting to get to the point where you can’t use the whole “lack of experience” excuses for Allen.  For all the progress be seemed to make, we still see him revert back to the traits (holding onto the ball, poor footwork passing up short routes, inaccuracies) from college.  
 

We saw on Sunday that the thing he does well, scrambling, leaves his open for huge cheap shots to the head.  

He also doesn’t seem to be elevating the offense either.  Take a look at how much better NYG has been since Daniel Jones took over last week.  Or how much better Cleveland was behind Baker and not Tyrod.  Or to a MUCH lesser extent Gardiner Minshew in Jacksonville.   Allen has struggled to generate much more than 20 points per game.
 

So have you lost faith in Josh Allen?

 

If you haven’t lost faith, what give you hope that he will eventually start elevating the offense?  

I’m completely on the fence, but trending toward skepticism, unfortunately. 

Not in the least.  You are over reacting.  Significantly over reacting.

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What? Did you read his post?

 

He's blaming the fans for PAST QBs not developing into franchise QBs.

Yeah, I read it. He’s got a point about those fans who’ve seen enough of Allen and already want to replace him. That’s not blaming the fans for anything, it’s calling them out for their impatience.

 

Anyway, it’s 1:45pm, shouldn’t you be reminding us that we could have drafted Mahomes?

[VW82]

1 hour ago, iinii said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/03/buffalo-bills-offense-josh-allen

 

This article does a really good job illustrating what many of us have been trying to say wrt Josh's issues. Lots more in the link.

 

Quote

Allen’s trouble with identifying pressure is equaled by his trouble with identifying coverage, particularly as it pertains to the backside safety. His first interception against the Pats was a glaring example, when he failed to account for Devin McCourty out of a Cover 2 shell (the most basic of backside safety looks). Allen’s second interception—caught by cornerback J.C. Jackson—was, in some ways worse, as the young QB failed to account for a middle-field safety on a deep post that naturally takes the passer’s eye to … the middle of the field. The safety did not make the pick, but his presence allowed Jackson to play in trail coverage underneath the receiver, which is how the pick occurred.

 

Interceptions like these should be relatively from which to learn. For a good quarterback, making such blatant errors is like touching a hot stove, but that’s only the case if the passer understands how his team’s play designs relate to the coverage. There are plenty of non-turnover plays that illustrate the severity of Allen’s learning curve here. In Week 2 against the Giants, for example, on the game’s second play, the Bills ran a wheel route for tight end Dawson Knox. It was a perfect route combination to flood multiple players into the outside zone of New York’s Cover 4 (the play can also work against Cover 3—it’s a similar read for the quarterback). This was a scripted shot play that the Bills undoubtedly rehearsed carefully during the week. And yet Allen did not process the read and instead looked to the other (i.e. wrong) side of the field.

 

Quote

What Sean McDermott and his offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, must figure out is how to accommodate Allen’s youthful flaws without catering to them. No QB can correct these weaknesses overnight—especially not midseason. But a QB can maybe avoid them if he’s asked to, say, dropback and throw on first and second down, when defenses, forced to consider the run, are inherently more predictable. Throwing the ball from two-back or two-tight end sets (aka “base personnel”) is a great way to exploit a predictable defense. 

 

Daboll, a former tight ends coach, has a strong working knowledge of this sort of passing game, and the Bills this season have indeed shown some creativity with dropbacks out of base personnel (including spreading out into empty formations, which is another way to clarify the coverage for the QB). It’s a fine line to walk, though. Buffalo’s offense ultimately hinges on the success of its ground game; incomplete passes on first down can quickly derail a ground game. And Allen, gifted a fastball thrower as he is, does not deliver with stable accuracy. Like Cam Newton, he is liable to simply miss on a half-dozen throws each game. This cannot be coached out of a guy, it can only be coached around. 

 

Edited October 3, 2019 by VW82

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

How so?

 

Perhaps I  missed them but which reasons?

 

 

His completion percentage in college was 56% and so far in the NFL it's 55% (60% this year). His completion percentage this year is definitely an improvement over last year though but I never thought Allen was the kind of QB that would stay in the low 50's for completion percentage. I just equate that to having really bad receivers and a bad o-line. 

 

The reasons are mechanics and decision making.  My point is he is more consistent with his footwork.  He does have steps back, but he is better than when he was at Wyoming. In his last season at Wyoming, JA had two games with grater than 60% completion percentage.  This year, he has done that in three games. That is progression. I'm not really concerned about the Pats game. It was a HUGE step back, but when you show progress through three weeks, it is more likely than not the step back is temporary.  

 

A really good example of what he is doing for the first time is that JA can now hit receivers before they make their break. That never happened at Wyoming and it didn't happen last year.  EJ never did it, and TT never did it. That is a strong indication he can get there. 

 

I'm not sure if you are a podcast guy, but if you are, check out Nick and Nolan.  Just a great breakdown of this, and especially why JA is already miles ahead of where past QBs are.  Alternatively, CinciJungle and PatsPulpit did a good breakdown of this. 

57 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I agree there was an element of bad luck in a couple of those turnovers but also some very good luck in having one ugly INT called back and another easy INT dropped by the Jets secondary. The fact is he made a lot of mistakes vs Jets and in the end we only scored 17 points, so even though he did some things very well in that game it isn't fair or accurate to only credit him with the good stuff.

 

I can't comment on Josh's college career but he certainly has improved since the beginning of last season. Very few would dispute that. The problem is that the areas where he struggles (accuracy, decision making, etc.) haven't improved enough to say he's now a franchise NFL QB. You seem to acknowledge this fact.

 

The question we're left with is this: is it realistic to think he's still going to improve enough moving forward to get there? I don't know the answer to this but I've tried and struggled to come up with a recent example (as the game has changed a lot in the last 5-10 years) of a QB who only became good after multiple years of playing. In every instance I can think of the QB was either good by his second year or never got there. Eventually there will be a shallow learning curve guy who bucks this trend , and maybe it's Josh -- he certainly would fit the profile of that type of player given his talent and background -- but finding examples of that in today's NFL is becoming much tougher.     

 

This is where I am at. Here is the thing, based on his growth rate, there is no reason he can't be there by the end of this year.  I don't care about other QBs. When JA was drafted, we all knew that he was rawer than the average QB. He wasn't going to burn down the house his first year. He wasn't even going to do it his second year. Thats just the pill we had to swallow.  But in this situation, the point is to see a continuous upward trajectory. As long as that continues, I'm all in.  The Pats game, that sucked, but they have the best D in the league.  It'd be silly to think that would end differently.  If keeps doing it, we have a problem. But I don't think he will. 

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

This article does a really good job illustrating what many of us have been trying to say wrt Josh's issues. Lots more in the link.

 

 

 

I get the impression the author didn’t watch much of the first three games of the season. Nor did he take note of the second half of the Pats*** game. 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

All I've been doing since the moment he was drafted is try to find evidence that everyone was wrong about him & he's not the QB I saw in college.

I've hoped & prayed our coaching staff could pull off a miracle & turn him into a player worthy of passing on Patrick Mahomes & Deshaun Watson in order to stock up on picks for the following year, but he doesn't ever seem to learn from his mistakes.

He still has yet to put together one great game, still has yet to play 4 straight quarters of good football this season, is one of the worst deep ball passers in the league (which was the one thing he was supposed to be good at), and hasn't played well against any good team he's faced. 

Last season when we were coming off the Bye, I posted a thread pointing out that we were about to go on a stretch against the weakest strength of schedule out of anyone in the entire league, so don't get too excited when we inevitably beat some of those teams. We went 3-3...people acted like barely beating the 3-8 Jaguars (by 3 points), 5-9 Lions (by 1 point) and blowing out the 7-8 Dolphins meant he's arrived! 

In that stretch we also lost to the 3-9 Jets at home (though we had just blown them out 3 weeks earlier on the road with Barkley), the 5-6 Dolphins and of course the Patriots (forgiven on that). 

Fast forward to 2019 and it takes the currently 0-4 Jets kicker to miss an XP & a FG, the defense to hold the Jets to 0 points off 4 Josh Allen turnovers, and a comeback, 1 point win to convince people he's good. We follow that up with a good 1st half against the currently 2-2 Giants (0-2 with Eli), then disappear again until later in the 4th quarter after allowing them back in the game. Then we fight tooth & nail to hang on for dear life against the 0-4 Bengals, barely escaping with the win after once again disappearing for a half, eventually putting together a game-winning drive capped off by a Frank Gore TD to squeak by. 

But then we play our first good team, the defense shows up to dominate, and Allen looks like he always has, making the same mistakes over & over until eventually getting injured. We were still in a position that we could've won, but had we had any half way competent game manager at the position, we'd almost certainly have won. 

So here I sit, trying to envision a future in which Josh Allen is still a part of this team in 2 years, and turns himself into just an average starting QB yet still finding it incredibly difficult. I want him to succeed more than anything, but sadly I think it'll eventually cost McDermott, a very good coach, his job. Their futures are tied together, and if Allen keeps playing like this, McDermott likely won't get a chance to try again for another QB. I'll enjoy the wins we get the rest of the season, even if they are against lousy opponents, but until I see him either A) put together a complete good 4 quarters several times or B) not completely nose dive against quality competition, I have little hope he'll ever become the franchise guy.

 

Thank you for an excellent post.   My main hope for Allen at this point is that his terrible play against the Pats -- and all the criticism he's had to have heard/read about his play and prospects -- finally convinces him that the coaches actually do know better than he does about what he can and cannot do in the NFL.   If he doesn't learn more from his failures than he has so far from his close calls, he's not long for the NFL as a starting QB.

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Roethlisberger, Favre, Brees and countless others just took time to develop into the QB's they were or are now. You don't give up on a QB after not even 2 full seasons of play, he's a gunslinger who wants to put the entire city on his back, he doesn't have to and that's what he needs to understand, when not if he understands that then I believe great things are about to happen with this team imo.

 

This is simply untrue. 

- Roethlisberger took over for injured Tommy Maddox in the first game of his rookie season, and led the Steelers to a 15-1 record.  The next year he led them to a Super Bowl win. 

- Favre played in a totally different environment than today -- and his poor play got him traded away to the Packers.  

- Drew Brees played decently as a sophomore but struggled in his third year on a very poor Chargers team.   Brees came out in his fourth season, 2004, with his act all together.  He was named a Pro Bowler that season.

 

More recently -- and more pertinent -- to Allen's situation is the reality that  ...

- Goff (#1 in 2016) blossomed as a sophomore and led the Rams to the playoffs.  Last season, he took them to the Super Bowl;

- Wentz (#2 in 2016) was decent as a rookie and was a leading  MVP candidate until he was injured as a sophomore;

-  Mahomes (#10 in 2017), who played only 1 game as rookie, threw for 50 TDs and was the NFL MVP as a sophomore;

- DeShaun Watson (#12 in 2017)  was outstanding in his 7 starts as a rookie before he was injured.  As a sophomore, he led his team to 11-5, made the Pro Bowl, and threw 26 TDs to 9 INTs;

- Baker Mayfield (#1 in 2018) set the rookie TD record at 27;

- Lamar Jackson (#32 in 2018) sparked the Ravens' offense as a rookie and led them to the playoffs.  This season he's thrown 10 TDs and only 2 INTs.

 

That's 6 QBs from the last three drafts that have already made their marks in the NFL.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

36 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

This article does a really good job illustrating what many of us have been trying to say wrt Josh's issues. Lots more in the link.

 

 

 

There will be plenty of Allen detractors quickly cranking out columns about how terrible he is. When he wins he will garner faint praise and many will be silent. This will likely follow him his whole career as media types won’t rest in  their quest to be right. 

[VW82]

25 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I get the impression the author didn’t watch much of the first three games of the season. Nor did he take note of the second half of the Pats*** game. 

 

So you think Benoit, a respected NFL writer, authors a piece exclusively about Allen, provides numerous examples of plays in it where he details not only the play designs but the coverages and reads of those plays, but he didn’t watch the games? 

 

There are many things we can point to in support of our guy but this “others don’t watch the games and I do” argument that is oft repeated on this site is such a head scratcher to me. 

[Dopey]

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

So you think Benoit, a respected NFL writer, authors a piece exclusively about Allen, provides numerous examples of plays in it where he details not only the play designs but the coverages and reads of those plays, but he didn’t watch the games? 

 

There are many things we can point to in support of our guy but this “others don’t watch the games and I do” argument that is oft repeated on this site is such a head scratcher to me. 

I'm with ya. The author also made points regarding issues Allen had vs. the Giants and Bengals. So it sounds like he did at least watch film of more than just the Pats game.

Edited October 3, 2019 by Dopey

[VW82]

17 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

There will be plenty of Allen detractors quickly cranking out columns about how terrible he is. When he wins he will garner faint praise and many will be silent. This will likely follow him his whole career as media types won’t rest in  their quest to be right. 

 

This is an example of hostile attribution bias among others. Instead of taking a third party’s most likely unbiased view at face value you assume they must be saying negative things because they are out to get Josh or are protecting their previous critical stance (as if they would care more about doing that than just being right). 

Edited October 3, 2019 by VW82

[RevWarRifleman]

No.

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

The reasons are mechanics and decision making.  My point is he is more consistent with his footwork.  He does have steps back, but he is better than when he was at Wyoming. In his last season at Wyoming, JA had two games with grater than 60% completion percentage.  This year, he has done that in three games. That is progression. I'm not really concerned about the Pats game. It was a HUGE step back, but when you show progress through three weeks, it is more likely than not the step back is temporary.  

 

A really good example of what he is doing for the first time is that JA can now hit receivers before they make their break. That never happened at Wyoming and it didn't happen last year.  EJ never did it, and TT never did it. That is a strong indication he can get there. 

 

I'm not sure if you are a podcast guy, but if you are, check out Nick and Nolan.  Just a great breakdown of this, and especially why JA is already miles ahead of where past QBs are.  Alternatively, CinciJungle and PatsPulpit did a good breakdown of this. 

 

This is where I am at. Here is the thing, based on his growth rate, there is no reason he can't be there by the end of this year.  I don't care about other QBs. When JA was drafted, we all knew that he was rawer than the average QB. He wasn't going to burn down the house his first year. He wasn't even going to do it his second year. Thats just the pill we had to swallow.  But in this situation, the point is to see a continuous upward trajectory. As long as that continues, I'm all in.  The Pats game, that sucked, but they have the best D in the league.  It'd be silly to think that would end differently.  If keeps doing it, we have a problem. But I don't think he will. 

Watch the footwork in the Pats game. It was atrocious - numerous examples of simple stuff. Not stepping into his throws, not moving his feet/body with the direction of his pass, etc. Maybe as a whole he has made progress but he is still doing things many QB's dont do in college or even high school. The positive spin on this could be that it shows there is still a ton of improvement once he gets this right. But the flipside is that its just too much for him to handle and he cant get there. I for one am not giving up on him. I think he has a ton of arm potential, toughness and seems to want it. I only chime in because I read these comments wanting to ignore he has any issues, blame others and excuse his bad play. The bar must be higher if we want this to be the franchise guy.  

[Boatdrinks]

27 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

This is an example of hostile attribution bias among others. Instead of taking a third party’s most likely unbiased view at face value you assume they must be saying negative things because they are out to get Josh or are protecting their previous critical stance (as if they would care more about doing that than just being right). 

Many in the media and especially analytics types care more about being right than anything else. Lots of these folks are numbers geeks , not sports types. When they’re wrong they are silent. That’s the media world we live in today . Hot takes and declarations get more clicks than nuance. It’s an example of opinion from someone who has observed the change in media over the years. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[ngbills]

27 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

This is an example of hostile attribution bias among others. Instead of taking a third party’s most likely unbiased view at face value you assume they must be saying negative things because they are out to get Josh or are protecting their previous critical stance (as if they would care more about doing that than just being right). 

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

 

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Many in the media and especially analytics types care more about being right than anything else. Lots of these folks are numbers geeks , not sports types. When they’re wrong they are silent. That’s the media world we live in today . Hot takes and declarations get more clicks than nuance. 

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Watch the footwork in the Pats game. It was atrocious - numerous examples of simple stuff. Not stepping into his throws, not moving his feet/body with the direction of his pass, etc. Maybe as a whole he has made progress but he is still doing things many QB's dont do in college or even high school. The positive spin on this could be that it shows there is still a ton of improvement once he gets this right. But the flipside is that its just too much for him to handle and he cant get there. I for one am not giving up on him. I think he has a ton of arm potential, toughness and seems to want it. I only chime in because I read these comments wanting to ignore he has any issues, blame others and excuse his bad play. The bar must be higher if we want this to be the franchise guy.  

 

Is that what you took away from what I wrote? I was going for just the opposite. I feel like in all my posts on this thread I acknowledged that he is inconsistent with this footwork (less so than in college), but that the Pats game was a giant leap back but it was also just one game. 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

 

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

I’m not defending Allen blindly. Anyone who has watched realizes there are flaws in his game. I’m pulling for him for sure, but have no idea if he can be the long term answer or not. Nobody knows, but some claim to be clairvoyant and have all the answers. Allen hasn’t come close to having a perfect game, that’s my opinion. Don’t try to frame my thoughts without knowing what they are. It’s not the same because I’m not saying he will or he won’t. He’ll either improve and succeed or he won’t and another QB will be brought in to replace him. As a Bills fan, I’m just along for the ride. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[K-9]

55 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

So you think Benoit, a respected NFL writer, authors a piece exclusively about Allen, provides numerous examples of plays in it where he details not only the play designs but the coverages and reads of those plays, but he didn’t watch the games? 

 

There are many things we can point to in support of our guy but this “others don’t watch the games and I do” argument that is oft repeated on this site is such a head scratcher to me. 

No, I think Benoit, a respected NFL writer, authors a piece about Allen and either didn’t see or doesn’t mention the plays Allen has exhibited all season, including the second half of the Pats*** game, that illustrate precisely the ways his coaches have schemed to mitigate his flaws.

 

But then, that would have mitigated his preconceived point of the article in the first place. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by K-9

[oldmanfan]

Benoit has some good points but he focused on negatives and didn’t mention the positives Allen showed 

[K-9]

32 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

No he doesn't. 

 

His point was "this is why our QBs don't develop". It was a ridiculously dumb thing to say.... the fans have 0 control over that.

 

Since you asked, they should've drafted Mahomes.?

No, I think his point was that fans are too quick to run players out of town before they’ve shown enough one way or the other. Fans have plenty control over that. 

 

Like I’ve said before, if Allen isn’t allowed to have bad games, then there is no hope for some fans around here because he’s going to have more bad games and, BRACE YOURSELF, some of them may be as bad or even worse than last Sunday. Some fans may want to get out while the getting is good.