Have You Started To Lose Faith in Josh Allen?

[jkeerie]

One thing that cannot be overlooked.  We've seen other QBs get away with "poor decisions"...throwing across their bodies, throwing into coverage...and getting away with it.  Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are among that group.  Their receivers make plays and bail them out.  Instead of getting castigated, their throws end up on highlight reels.  Now before anyone touts that Mahomes and Jackson are better than Josh at this point...I'm not saying he's in their company.  My point is...he doesn't have the receivers to allow him to get away with bad decisions.  I think he needs to put that realization at the top of his lesson plan.

[Phil The Thrill]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Simple thought exercise:  Let's take Brady's game stats & give them to Allen and give Allen's to Brady:

 

*  First if you told me before the game that Allen would attempt 36 passes and complete less then half of them for 150 yards, NO TD's (rushing or passing); have multiple 3 & outs; and throw an INT in the Pat's end zone to kill a drive I would have thought we lose the game 27 - 3.

 

* Now, back to the exercise.  Give Brady Allen's stats and IMO the Pats still win.  NONE of Allen's 3 INT's gave NE the ball in our Red Zone or took away a Bills red zone opportunity.  So instead of going 3 & out and punting & giving the Bills the ball at their own 40, Brady, throwing Allen's INT's, would have given the Bills the ball at midfield.  Somehow I think the Pat's D could handle it.  So lets say the Bill's get a FG or two off the 3 INT's.

 

*  And with Allen channeling Brady he would have thrown a red zone INT like Brady did so you could take that Bills TD off the board. 

 

*  IMO switching the passing numbers means that Bills probably lose the game 16 - 6 or maybe 16 - 9. 

 

Now if you switch the punters stats giving the Bill's the Pat's guys numbers and vice versa what do you think the final score of the game is?

 

I'm not saying Allen didn't have a bad day - he did.  What I am saying is that Allen DID NOT lose us the game.  IMO the blocked punt for a TD cost us the game. 

 

Not all INT's are the same.  An overly aggressive throw downfield that gives your opponent the ball at midfield is NOT the same as a PICK 6!  And a bad decision that results in an INT at midfield is NOT the same as throwing an INT in your opponents red zone.

This is really selective reasoning.  The INT’s were just ONE part Allen’s horrible game.  In your analysis you don’t take into account how his poor pocket presence took the Bills out of FG range twice and his sack knocked the Bills back 6 yards where Hauschka missed a FG.  
 

[MarkAF43]

Not at all. 

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I actually disagree with this....totally ok with Matt as backup.

 

He isnt as Mobile

he does throw with much more anticipation at this point

he makes up for physical limitations with smarts

 

A backup QB.....good for about 3 games a year.

I don't think I ever said he was a bad backup

 

There are people in the thread calling him a top backup in the NFL , he isn't

 

He is a capable to good backup depending on the day but is easily gameplanned for

 

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

One thing that cannot be overlooked.  We've seen other QBs get away with "poor decisions"...throwing across their bodies, throwing into coverage...and getting away with it.  Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are among that group.  Their receivers make plays and bail them out.  Instead of getting castigated, their throws end up on highlight reels.  Now before anyone touts that Mahomes and Jackson are better than Josh at this point...I'm not saying he's in their company.  My point is...he doesn't have the receivers to allow him to get away with bad decisions.  I think he needs to put that realization at the top of his lesson plan.

 

I think this is an excuse because those guys aren't exactly throwing to house hold names. I also don't see them making stupid decisions with the football. 

 

Allen puts the ball in harms way too often. Too many fumbles and too many interceptions. 

 

The Bills rebuilt the offensive line, rebuild the running back depth chart, rebuilt the receiver depth chart, and the results in the pass game haven't been much better. That's a big concern in my eyes. 

Edited September 30, 2019 by jrober38

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, Phil The Thrill said:

This is really selective reasoning.  The INT’s were just ONE part Allen’s horrible game.  In your analysis you don’t take into account how his poor pocket presence took the Bills out of FG range twice and his sack knocked the Bills back 6 yards where Hauschka missed a FG.  
 

 

They are?  Our FG kicker should be able to make a 49 yard kick on a perfect weather day.  As far as the rest goes I remember one other sack that took us out of FG range, NOT two.

 

Also Brady had a lot of 3 & outs that would have hurt the Bills to. 

 

IMO any way you look at it if you switch Brady & Allen's PERFORMANCE yesterday, the Pats still win.  But if you switch the punters performance the Bills win.  I don't see how it can be more objective and honest then that.

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

I'm on this dude's side.  I really am.  He has tons of potential and is a gamer for sure, but his play is erratic.

 

He is not disciplined with his mechanics and it gets him in trouble more often than not.  

 

There was a thread boasting his completion percentage a week or 2 ago.  Well now Josh is flirting with the 50s again, has 3 TDs to 6 Ints and a QB rating of 69.  That is not good.

 

I'm losing faith in him.

 

[reddogblitz]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

What about the two sacks that took points off the board? 

 

This is my pet peeve in football and I see it a lot.  You're on the opponents 33 yard line and it's 3rd and long.  You drop your QB 10 yards deep to pat the ball and look for a WR downfield.  Meanwhile, the D blitzes the pants off of you knocking you out of FG range.  Especially with our D, run or run something safe to get the FG if you don't get the first.  

 

It's almost as bad and as predictable as taking a 3-0 pitch in baseball and having the pitcher groove one right over the heart of the plate cuz he knows you're not swinging at it.

[Chicken Boo]

12 hours ago, matter2003 said:

He made Mahomes look bad too last year.

 

For a half.  Pat lit them up in the 2nd half.

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

He is passing for over 250 yards a game (up until last Sunday)

 

That sets a record with Jim Kelly......what exactly do you want?

When did Jim Kelly play? This is a different NFL my friend. In today's NFL 250 yds and you are the bottom third of the league. Back in Kelly's day 250 was close to leading the league or at least top 5. So yes, I want better than bottom third and dont care about how someone compares to 30 year old stats that have drastically changed. 

[bouds]

Didn’t have much to begin with.  He was a raw project with the biggest bust potential, so I tempered my expectations from the jump. He’s actually been better than I thought he would be. Still hoping for the best but my expectations are staying where they’ve always been. 

Edited September 30, 2019 by bouds

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

 

 

The Bills rebuilt the offensive line, rebuild the running back depth chart, rebuilt the receiver depth chart, and the results in the pass game haven't been much better. That's a big concern in my eyes. 

 

Where would you rank the Bill's running backs?  Even more pertinent to the discussion where would you rank Gore & Yeldon versus the rest of the NFL?  I would put them bottom 5. 

 

The Bills did not rebuild their RBs. They brought in an old war horse; they took a gamble on a rookie 3rd round guy and they added a non-descript journeyman RB in Yeldon who they appear afraid to give the ball to (fumbles anyone).  I think the gamble on Singleterry will work out and cutting McCoy was needed for salary cap efforts going forward.  But it's obvious that McCoy still has gas in the tank and would be helping this team right now if available.  Yesterday's game SCREAMED for McCoy & Gore trading off possessions and slamming the Pats with our running game.  That would have slowed down the pass rush and opened up the receivers. 

 

They did rebuild the O-line taking it from being the 2nd worst O-line in the NFL to one that's probably in the middle of the pack.  Still there is much improvement needed here.

 

They did rebuild the receivers taking them from being the WORST receiving unit in the NFL to middle of the pack.  But we're still looking for a true #1.

 

They did rebuild the TE's taking them from being one of the worst units in the NFL to POTENTIALLY one of the better position groups.  But RIGHT NOW we're relying on 2 rookies and a guy who hasn't played a down yet.

 

All this means is we must have patience with Allen AND Debald.  The offense is still a work in progress.

 

 

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

They are?  Our FG kicker should be able to make a 49 yard kick on a perfect weather day.  As far as the rest goes I remember one other sack that took us out of FG range, NOT two.

 

Also Brady had a lot of 3 & outs that would have hurt the Bills to. 

 

IMO any way you look at it if you switch Brady & Allen's PERFORMANCE yesterday, the Pats still win.  But if you switch the punters performance the Bills win.  I don't see how it can be more objective and honest then that.

 

 

 

NFL kickers are collectively 45 of 64 on field goals from 40 to 49 yards this year, or 70%. 

 

I assume that the percentages are lower for 49 yard field goals vs 42 yard field goals. 

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Where would you rank the Bill's running backs?  Even more pertinent to the discussion where would you rank Gore & Yeldon versus the rest of the NFL?  I would put them bottom 5. 

 

The Bills did not rebuild their RBs. They brought in an old war horse; they took a gamble on a rookie 3rd round guy and they added a non-descript journeyman RB in Yeldon who they appear afraid to give the ball to (fumbles anyone).  I think the gamble on Singleterry will work out and cutting McCoy was needed for salary cap efforts going forward.  But it's obvious that McCoy still has gas in the tank and would be helping this team right now if available.  Yesterday's game SCREAMED for McCoy & Gore trading off possessions and slamming the Pats with our running game.  That would have slowed down the pass rush and opened up the receivers. 

 

They did rebuild the O-line taking it from being the 2nd worst O-line in the NFL to one that's probably in the middle of the pack.  Still there is much improvement needed here.

 

They did rebuild the receivers taking them from being the WORST receiving unit in the NFL to middle of the pack.  But we're still looking for a true #1.

 

They did rebuild the TE's taking them from being one of the worst units in the NFL to POTENTIALLY one of the better position groups.  But RIGHT NOW we're relying on 2 rookies and a guy who hasn't played a down yet.

 

All this means is we must have patience with Allen AND Debald.  The offense is still a work in progress.

 

 

 

With the number of upgrades we made, I don't understand how Allen hasn't been able to improve his passer efficiency. 

 

He was at 68 last year in QB Rating, and he's still under 70 right now. I was hoping that number would jump up to around 90, which is still about 20th best in the league. 

 

The pass game has miles to go before it's just average by NFL standards. I'm not sure how likely that is to happen based off what we've seen so far. 

[ngbills]

29 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Simple thought exercise:  Let's take Brady's game stats & give them to Allen and give Allen's to Brady:

 

*  First if you told me before the game that Allen would attempt 36 passes and complete less then half of them for 150 yards, NO TD's (rushing or passing); have multiple 3 & outs; and throw an INT in the Pat's end zone to kill a drive I would have thought we lose the game 27 - 3.

 

* Now, back to the exercise.  Give Brady Allen's stats and IMO the Pats still win.  NONE of Allen's 3 INT's gave NE the ball in our Red Zone or took away a Bills red zone opportunity.  So instead of going 3 & out and punting & giving the Bills the ball at their own 40, Brady, throwing Allen's INT's, would have given the Bills the ball at midfield.  Somehow I think the Pat's D could handle it.  So lets say the Bill's get a FG or two off the 3 INT's.

 

*  And with Allen channeling Brady he would have thrown a red zone INT like Brady did so you could take that Bills TD off the board. 

 

*  IMO switching the passing numbers means that Bills probably lose the game 16 - 6 or maybe 16 - 9. 

 

Now if you switch the punters stats giving the Bill's the Pat's guys numbers and vice versa what do you think the final score of the game is?

 

I'm not saying Allen didn't have a bad day - he did.  What I am saying is that Allen DID NOT lose us the game.  IMO the blocked punt for a TD cost us the game. 

 

Not all INT's are the same.  An overly aggressive throw downfield that gives your opponent the ball at midfield is NOT the same as a PICK 6!  And a bad decision that results in an INT at midfield is NOT the same as throwing an INT in your opponents red zone.

This is drastically underestimating the mistakes that put the Bills out of field goal range. Those were huge and key in losing the game. 

 

Bills had it at NWE 35 and Allen took bad sack putting them out of range

Bills had it at NWE 25 and Allen took bad sack, pushing FG to a 49 yarder which was missed

Bills had 1st downs around mid field on two of his int's

 

That is a lot of points left on table

Edited September 30, 2019 by ngbills

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

For a half.  Pat lit them up in the 2nd half.

 

Yea, with KC's skill players and with Andy Reid at coach you've got to expect half time adjustments that work.  And Mahomes is the modern incantation of Dan Marino - a uniquely gifted QB who needed very little time to rise to the top of the NFL.

 

But that doesn't change the FACT that the Pat's were able to shut KC down, at KC, for an ENTIRE half.  That was an amazing defensive performance.  And then 2 weeks later they shut down the LA Rams, probably the 2nd or 3rd best Offense in the league, for the ENTIRE GAME.

 

I know we all hate the Pats but they have elite pass defenders and are coached by the greatest defensive mind in NFL history.  Allen & the offense was always going to suffer yesterday.  I went with my heart & not my head so I was disappointed in Allen & Debald yesterday to.  But after sleeping on it the Bills need to gather their sh## and beat TN next week.  The season is still a LONG way from being lost and Allen is still a long way from being a bust.

 

[london_bills]

19 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

One thing that cannot be overlooked.  We've seen other QBs get away with "poor decisions"...throwing across their bodies, throwing into coverage...and getting away with it.  Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are among that group.  Their receivers make plays and bail them out.  Instead of getting castigated, their throws end up on highlight reels.  Now before anyone touts that Mahomes and Jackson are better than Josh at this point...I'm not saying he's in their company.  My point is...he doesn't have the receivers to allow him to get away with bad decisions.  I think he needs to put that realization at the top of his lesson plan.

You know what. The deep interceptions and throwing back against the body don't bother me so much. The throwing against the body has worked a few times for big gains.

 

What bothers me is not seeing open receivers (brown and Jones on the 3rd down he missed to beasley). They may have been touchdowns and that's the difference that we expect to see in the future right?

 

Basic intelligence would suggest that New England would think we would go to Beasley on 3rd down. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is drastically underestimating the mistakes that put the Bills out of field goal range. Those were huge and key in losing the game. 

 

Bills had it at NWE 35 and Allen took bad sack putting them out of range

Bills had it at NWE 25 and Allen took bad sack, pushing FG to a 49 yarder which was missed

Bills had 1st downs around mid field on two of his int's

 

That is a lot of points left on table

 

Fine add a FG to my scenario and we still lose.  BTW we should have made the 49 yard FG.  The only scenario where we DON'T lose is if we switch the performance of the punters.  Switching the performance of the QB's doesn't get us a win becasue you would have to take our TD off the board to mimic Brady's end zone INT.

 

 

[Stallions]

12 hours ago, Shooter McGavin said:

I haven’t given up on Josh as a gamer, leader and a winner, but I have given up on the shred of remaining hope that he’d become a top 10 QB over the next few years.

Me too!

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Fine add a FG to my scenario and we still lose.  BTW we should have made the 49 yard FG.  The only scenario where we DON'T lose is if we switch the performance of the punters.  Switching the performance of the QB's doesn't get us a win becasue you would have to take our TD off the board to mimic Brady's end zone INT.

 

 

 

Not necessarily. A 49 yard field goal is far from automatic.

 

Also, if they'd hit one of them, they wouldn't have gone for it on 4th and goal and would have kicked a 20 yard field goal for the tie. 

[PromoTheRobot]

53 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

How does being benched teach someone how to throw the ball away when under duress? I think you bench Josh if he is disruptive or not putting in the effort needed to get better. I just don't see Josh as a player who needs the message a benching would provide. I think Josh understands the severity of the situation and the issue and I think he works hard to improve his processing. 

 

You need live rounds to learn how to actually make the decisions when under real game conditions. It is frustrating that he is making these bad decisions instead of throwing the ball away. But I just don't see the benefit of benching him providing that he clears the concussion protocol. 

 

I think that if he is hurt or borderline bench him to get him right into the bye week and I think you can win with Barkley managing the game against the Titans. However I don't think he or the team benefits from him being benched. 

 

I also think it is funny that people expect someone to improve almost instantly and with less playing time. Most QB's take time to develop and I think you have to let Josh take his lumps this season as long as he is consistently working to improve. 

 

I don't know.... practice? We have a pretty good defense that could recreate that situation pretty easily.  Josh has a go-to reaction when pressured: backpedal and run to his right to find a receiver along the sideline.  He can't keep being so predictable. So yeah, a little practice working on doing things differently wouldn't hurt. Another benefit of doing it in practice rather than in-game? No film.