Depending on the outcome of tomorrows game...AJ Green

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair point.  But then there would be the resources given up in addition....draft picks or players.

 

It would go against everything Beane says he wants to do to give up significant resources for an 8 game rental (leaving aside the Q of Greene learning the playbook and being in football shape and ready to play at a high level halfway through the season).

 

Now no one is forcing him to be consistent - but he does seem to roll that way.

 

 

 

The draft pick compensation would be the concern for sure............not the salary cap hit.   

 

I'd take him just as a rental but it would be also a chance to try out the likely top free agent offensive weapon and see if he is a fit and allow him to get comfortable in Buffalo.

 

It would also keep him away from the Patriots.   That doesn't sound like much of a reason until you remember Corey Dillon going from injured and seemingly in decline for the Bengals to a 1600 yard season with the Pats.   

 

I understand what you are saying about your perception of McBeane's personnel moves.........they've drafted well..........but I think it's just as easy to draw comparisons between what they have been trying to do and what the Patriots do.    I really don't know if McBeane is actually a draft pick hugger or if that was a function of drafting relatively high(or needing to in the case of trading up for Allen).

[Augie]

I think the recent Knox and Darryl Johnson picks are a couple examples of it not being drafting high. I know not to quote the guy I’m referring to, because he finds it difficult to read my responses. But still......these guys can draft! I’m NOT giving up a 3rd who could be a crazy good player, LONG TERM and cheap (in return for a possibly healthy short term guy)!

 

 

.

Edited October 10, 2019 by Augie

[Prospector]

This thread needs to be closed down!!! Conjecture!!!

[Hebert19]

To me this all comes down to 1 thing.   Does Beane think we could win the superbowl THIS year?  If he does...draft picks and money mean nothing.  The defense is good enough.  Would Melvin Gordon and green make us good enough to beat Patriots?  I'd say our chances would increase dramatically...

 

That's the only question beane needs to answer...gut tells me he will put the chips on the table. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

10 hours ago, Augie said:

 

A 3rd for a few games with an older guy in the last year of his deal who has demonstrated he misses a lot of games with injury? 

 

Sorry, I may be wrong but I pray we are smarter than that. We draft too well to waste that pick. 

You would most likely get a 3rd rd comp pick back if he left.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Wasn't trying to offend.... I just dont really understand why fans would covet a 3rd round pick for a team with close to $90 million in cap space and on the cusp of being a legitimate conference contender for a guy who's been among the better WRs in the league..... a slight overpay, for a team who can absolutely afford to overpay, is well worth the risk when lacking a playmaker like AJ Green even if it is for 7-8 regular season games and playoffs. 

 

If your whole point is you dont think Beane is in favor of that then I apologize, I misinterpreted.... and if that's the case I'd be disappointed.

 

Well, Beane is the guy going for it or not, so it seems reasonable to look at whether it would fly from his viewpoint.   I dont' think you should be disappointed.

 

I think Beane and McDermott sold themselves to the Pegulas as taking the long view...building a contender slowly through the draft and through under-valued FA who can grow with the team, plus a handful of vets with great work ethic and attitude to teach the young guys how it's done.  Beane loves his draft picks, and he covets them.  He gave a 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin, whom he had seen up close and personal, because he thought Benjamin was just the wide-catch-radius big target WR that Allen needed.  For whatever reason, injuries, lack of fire in the belly, checking out....that didn't work.  At the time he commented that if Carolina hadn't picked up Benjamin's 5th year option giving him an extra year, he wouldn't have done the deal.  I don't see Beane giving a 3rd round pick for a very talented WR with a big recent injury history, but who may not be in shape to contribute at his former level this season even if he can play, and who is not signed beyond this season. 

 

I don't understand the $90M in cap space figure.  Overthecap puts us at $25M.  Beane likes his cap $$ too, for all the guys we're gonna re-sign.  While that certainly doesn't preclude us taking on a guy with a $12M salary ($8.25M left if we pick him up now) I don't think he'd see that as good value for an injured player with a muddy timeline to return, a question about how effective he'll be upon return, a need to learn our playbook, and not signed beyond this year.

 

And yes, I don't myself.  If Green were healthy and had been playing at a good level, the picture is different.  If he were signed beyond this season, likewise.

[Figster]

11 hours ago, Golden Goat said:

I read somewhere that we won't make a serious playoff run if we don't trade for him and Melvin Gordon. Just sayin'.

Here's the thing, and I get where you guys are coming from. On the field A J Green is elite. Elite doesn't come cheap. Not even in a draft. Take Sammy Watkins for instance. I remember reading an article last year where 9 out of the 13 WR's picked in round 1 the 3 previous drafts have not had more then 40 receptions a season. Only one made the pro bowl. Thats not good return on a 1st round draft pick.

 

Does everyone realize we are trying to beat the Pats? Does our secondary need Tom Brady throwing to A J Green?

 

Just something to think about fellas. A healthy A J Green in the playoffs can make the difference IMO.

[Don Otreply]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

What WR have they drafted that is good? 

I look at this question more as, what WRs have they brought in, in such case three good ones in Brown, Beasley, and Williams, also Mc kittrick, and the punt returner, so not a bad group. Yes they failed in the Benjamin season, but have rebounded well imo, as they have remade pretty much the whole team during their short tenure, and we are coming up on a draft that is supposed to be rich in WRs, fingers crossed we score a good one, it’s always s bit of a crap shoot at the draft, we shall see. No need to vilify anyone.

 

Go Bills!!! 

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, Figster said:

Here's the thing, and I get where you guys are coming from. On the field A J Green is elite. Elite doesn't come cheap. Not even in a draft. Take Sammy Watkins for instance. I remember reading an article last year where 9 out of the 13 WR's picked in round 1 the 3 previous drafts have not had more then 40 receptions a season. Only one made the pro bowl. Thats not good return on a 1st round draft pick.

 

Does everyone realize we are trying to beat the Pats? Does our secondary need Tom Brady throwing to A J Green?

 

Just something to think about fellas. A healthy A J Green in the playoffs can make the difference IMO.

I agree. I acknowledge the very reasonable arguments on the other side. I'm not going to bash Beane if he goes the other way on this, but it seems to me we find ourselves perhaps somewhat unexpectedly among the top eight teams or so in the league. It's a weak year in the NFL and with an elite defense, bolstering the offense with an elite skill wr could plausibly make a surprise Super Bowl run possible. All this, of course, predicated on Green truly being healthy, able to grasp the offense quickly, etc.

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The draft pick compensation would be the concern for sure............not the salary cap hit.   

 

I'd take him just as a rental but it would be also a chance to try out the likely top free agent offensive weapon and see if he is a fit and allow him to get comfortable in Buffalo.

 

It would also keep him away from the Patriots.   That doesn't sound like much of a reason until you remember Corey Dillon going from injured and seemingly in decline for the Bengals to a 1600 yard season with the Pats.   

 

I understand what you are saying about your perception of McBeane's personnel moves.........they've drafted well..........but I think it's just as easy to draw comparisons between what they have been trying to do and what the Patriots do.    I really don't know if McBeane is actually a draft pick hugger or if that was a function of drafting relatively high(or needing to in the case of trading up for Allen).

Let's not forget that Beane ALREADY gave up a third for a far inferior WR to get over the hump in 2017.  Green is by all accounts a "process guy" who, when healthy, is one of the best receivers of the last decade. Do you think the Cowboys regret trading a first for Amari Cooper last season? 

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, Beane is the guy going for it or not, so it seems reasonable to look at whether it would fly from his viewpoint.   I dont' think you should be disappointed.

 

I think Beane and McDermott sold themselves to the Pegulas as taking the long view...building a contender slowly through the draft and through under-valued FA who can grow with the team, plus a handful of vets with great work ethic and attitude to teach the young guys how it's done.  Beane loves his draft picks, and he covets them.  He gave a 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin, whom he had seen up close and personal, because he thought Benjamin was just the wide-catch-radius big target WR that Allen needed.  For whatever reason, injuries, lack of fire in the belly, checking out....that didn't work.  At the time he commented that if Carolina hadn't picked up Benjamin's 5th year option giving him an extra year, he wouldn't have done the deal.  I don't see Beane giving a 3rd round pick for a very talented WR with a big recent injury history, but who may not be in shape to contribute at his former level this season even if he can play, and who is not signed beyond this season. 

 

I don't understand the $90M in cap space figure.  Overthecap puts us at $25M.  Beane likes his cap $$ too, for all the guys we're gonna re-sign.  While that certainly doesn't preclude us taking on a guy with a $12M salary ($8.25M left if we pick him up now) I don't think he'd see that as good value for an injured player with a muddy timeline to return, a question about how effective he'll be upon return, a need to learn our playbook, and not signed beyond this year.

 

And yes, I don't myself.  If Green were healthy and had been playing at a good level, the picture is different.  If he were signed beyond this season, likewise.

Well, it is a long-view notion to trade for him because he presents no cap hit or commitment beyond this season and the Bills are so far under the cap that the money is effectively meaningless. A wise approach to the long view is to exploit relatively low-cost opportunities to win in short-window time frames provided the team is good. Judging from their remaining schedule, I have the Bills getting to 11-5 in fairly comfortable fashion. Winning a playoff game seems like a legit goal, and for that, you need some elite talent on offense. 

Edited October 10, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Close to 90 million next offseason.

 

Fair enough. I don't think you can just slow build it through draft picks and OK veteran FAs who fit the culture. At some point and opportunity presents itself and you have to make a big move and go all in. 

 

Bills are 4-1, tied for 2nd best record in the AFC and have an easy schedule going forward for the next 6/7 weeks or so. They can really separate themselves and take advantage. IMO, they have a few holes and their biggest and most glaring is WR.

 

Well, that's one of the underlying debate themes on this board, right?  McD and Beane are acting as though, in fact, you can slow build it through draft picks and undervalued and OK vet FAs who fit the culture.  They wagered that they could gut the roster of talented but expensive players and bring in enough new talent quickly enough to stay within the "shelf life" the Pegulas will allow them.

 

Others here disagree with their strategy and think it won't work.

 

I don't think McDermott and Beane feel we're in a place where a "big move" will get them over the top.  I think Daboll believes in group play at WR rather than in "one true star", and I'm not sure he's wrong - one true star who is always open absolutely makes a difference, but when that one star is taken away by other teams or lands on IR, then what?  I think he wants his developing QB to learn to see the field, progress in his reads, and take whatever the D offers.

 

Myself, I think that the "big move" the Bills need is really between Josh Allen's ears - will the message he got while in concussion protocol, and seemed to demonstrate on the field in Tenn, hold good?  If we do need a "big move" on the roster, I would argue it is more likely to be a piece on our still-unsettled OL and an elite pass-rusher or LB than to be an elite WR.  I have confidence that McBeane see the need for the pass rusher, I'm as yet uncertain they value OL quite as highly as they should, despite the focus on it this off-season.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Let's not forget that Beane ALREADY gave up a third for a far inferior WR to get over the hump in 2017.  Green is by all accounts a "process guy" who, when healthy, is one of the best receivers of the last decade. Do you think the Cowboys regret trading a first for Amari Cooper last season? 

 

I don't forget, and I love AJ Green when healthy, but there are two differences: 1) Benjamin had his 5th year locked up 2) Amari Cooper was active playing when he was traded, not injured with uncertain timeline to return as AJ Green is at present. 

And I don't think Beane was so satisfied by what he gave up for that third, that he's likely to go to the well again for a player with those key differences.

 

 

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, it is a long-view notion to trade for him because he presents no cap hit or commitment beyond this season and the Bills are so far under the cap that the money is effectively meaningless. A wise approach to the long view is to exploit relatively low-cost opportunities to win in short-window time frames provided the team is good. Judging from their remaining schedule, I have the Bills getting to 11-5 in fairly comfortable fashion. Winning a playoff game seems like a legit goal, and for that, you need some elite talent on offense. 

 

This is a different definition long-view notion than I believe Beane holds (or most people).  Money is meaningful because it can roll over into subsequent seasons, when the Bills will need it to extend and sign their developing players or target new FA.  And draft picks are meaningful because they can be used to target new contributors.  I don't think Beane views giving up a draft pick in the first 3 rounds for an injured, elderly WR on (at best) an 11 game rental as a "relatively low-cost opportunity" and I don't think Daboll and McBeane see any WR is the key piece that will help us win this season.

 

No WR will help us if Josh Allen doesn't take care of 1) himself and 2) the ball.  But Daboll believes he can scheme enough guys open that if JA does take care of himself and the ball, we can hang with anyone.

[Kelly the Dog]

Beane has never had this job before. He's making it up as he goes along, in concert with McDermott. They have a plan and theories but neither of them has been in charge like this before. Beane doesn't have a trend yet, and it's surely a different mindset and strategy once you have reached a point of being in the middle of a playoff hunt than being on the cusp just hoping to be asked. He should look at trades differently than he did before. There is an argument to be made that a short term loan like Green IS part of a long term strategy because playoff experience is invaluable. He's doing what he should be doing, looking at all possibilities, short, mid and long term, and then making decisions on the fly as to what is the best move at the time.

 

Personally, I'm all for an AJ Green trade if he is healthy. He helps in innumerable ways. 

[Floydboy12]

The comparison of Benjamin and Green is just off. Green is miles ahead in skill level and mentality. Green may actually be injured to the point he's not worth the risk. But my gut tells me he just doesn't want to risk further injury for a franchise going nowhere. It's up to the front office to do their homework. And they would have to make Green feel like if he performs he has a future as a Bill.  If healthy he's worth a 3rd and more. 

[DasNootz]

I don’t trust the bills’ medical staff to make the right determination.  

[billsfan_34]

Loved the guy in his prime. Too many recent injuries and the wrong side of 30. I would pass even at a modest trade.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Contrary to some, I think AJ is the missing piece....the James Lofton if you will. 

 This team has a chance to contend for a Super Bowl this year. I think you have to recognize that as management and go all in. Without giving up something ridiculous of course.

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't forget, and I love AJ Green when healthy, but there are two differences: 1) Benjamin had his 5th year locked up 2) Amari Cooper was active playing when he was traded, not injured with uncertain timeline to return as AJ Green is at present. 

And I don't think Beane was so satisfied by what he gave up for that third, that he's likely to go to the well again for a player with those key differences.

 

 

 

This is a different definition long-view notion than I believe Beane holds (or most people).  Money is meaningful because it can roll over into subsequent seasons, when the Bills will need it to extend and sign their developing players or target new FA.  And draft picks are meaningful because they can be used to target new contributors.  I don't think Beane views giving up a draft pick in the first 3 rounds for an injured, elderly WR on (at best) an 11 game rental as a "relatively low-cost opportunity" and I don't think Daboll and McBeane see any WR is the key piece that will help us win this season.

 

No WR will help us if Josh Allen doesn't take care of 1) himself and 2) the ball.  But Daboll believes he can scheme enough guys open that if JA does take care of himself and the ball, we can hang with anyone.

Myself personally, just having a WR with a catching radius, size ,and skill of A J Green alone will help improve Allens TD to INT ratio IMO. I also think having an elite target to boost an already good WR corp will have Allen scrambling/ running less, making big plays more in the passing game in my humble opinion.

 

A J Green has been on the playing field over 86% of his career averaging over 70 receptions and just under 8 TD's a season. 

 

With all due respect Hapless.

[Golden Goat]

2 hours ago, Figster said:

On the field A J Green is elite. Elite doesn't come cheap.

A.J. was elite for about four seasons. None of those seasons was after 2015. He's been banged up half the time since, and is on the wrong side of 30. I would cringe if we gave up too much for him. "Elite" doesn't come cheap, but "once elite" and "oft injured" moves the needle closer, IMO.

Does everyone realize we are trying to beat the Pats?

The Giants showed the world (twice) how to beat Brady, and that doesn't involve getting into a shootout with him. You have to keep him on his a$$, and while our defense has been amazing, that's its one deficiency.

Does our secondary need Tom Brady throwing to A J Green?

It doesn't matter who Tom Brady is throwing to if he has all day to do it. He has proven that countless times. IMO, Let NE do what it's going to do -- let us do what we're going to do -- and let's see what happens. We shouldn't sign someone just because we're afraid NE will. To me, a team that does that is already beaten.

A healthy A J Green in the playoffs can make the difference IMO.

It didn't the only time AJ and Brady met in the playoffs. NE held him to 88 yards (0 TDs) and the Pats easily won.

Just something to think about fellas.

Definitely! I'm all for it at the right price. 

[ngbills]

AJ may not be the player he once was but he still would be a huge addition to this team. He becomes the number one and a guy teams need to take into account. That will help all aspects of the Bills offense. Not to mention the Bills getting him would stop another contender from getting him. The Pats could be a spot but him going to OAK, BALT, IND, LAC could help one of those teams edge the Bills out of a playoff spot. 

I get him for a 2nd or less and am ok as a one year rental. This year has all the workings of being a year that any team can go deep into the playoffs.