Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, papazoid said:

Josh Allen has made significant strides with his accuracy.

The Buffalo Bills' quarterback has completed 59.3% of his passes this season, up from 52.8% as a rookie. That number deserves to be higher, though.

Allen's pass catchers have let him down too often this season. According to analytics website Pro Football Focus, the Bills have 34 incompletions that they fault the receiver for. That's tied for the fifth most in the NFL through Week 15.

The breakdown:

Dawson Knox, 8
Cole Beasley, 8
Devin Singletary, 5
John Brown, 5
TJ Yeldon, 1
Andre Roberts, 1
Robert Foster, 1
Tommy Sweeney, 1
Patrick DiMarco, 1
Duke Williams, 1
Isaiah McKenzie, 1
Frank Gore, 1

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/20/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-receivers-drops-new-england-patriots-nfl/

 

Note that these numbers are PFF's own criteria for a catchable ball, not the same as "drops" scored by ESPN or NFL advanced stats or whoever is scoring the stuff on their site.

Sometimes they are higher, sometimes lower:

Knox, 9 - higher

Beasley, 6 - lower by 2

Singletary, 4 - lower

Brown, 5  - same

Yeldon, 0 - lower

Roberts - 1 - same

 

The point being, that while both agree there is blame to go around, the differences highlight that what constitutes a drop or a "fault" for the receiver has subjectivity to it.

 

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

He played very well against both. The offense moved the ball well and the outcome was never in doubt.

both those games easily could have been 30+ on the scoreboard. they quite literally shut It down with about 9 min left in the broncos game with great field position a couple times and then shut it down with 7 or 8 minutes left in the dallas game. 

 

neither score in the broncos or dallas game is indicative to how well the offense really played.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Dallas he played very good. Denver he played solid and then McDermott pulled the typical run the clock out once the Bills got a comfortable lead. 

Nice to have a coach who doesn't blow leads and gets the win in spite of fans wanting him to air it out. Must be one of the reasons he's a successful NFL coach.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

23 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Dallas and Denver were both top-10 pass D units when he faced them too.

 

 

Actually a lot of the team's we have played have had solid pass D units.  

 

NEx2, Pit, Bal, Cle, Dal, Den - 7 games against the current top 10 pass defense groups from a YPG stand point.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

22 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He's a good HC for sure....but he gets way too conservative at times.... such as the cluster ***** last two minutes of playing for the tie against Browns. The conservative strategy employed last week in the 4th won't work against the better teams and better QBs in the playoffs. Hopefully the approach changes in a close game against a Watson or Mahomes. 

Hard to argue with success. He doesn't blow leads.

[VW82]

On 12/18/2019 at 9:31 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure what significants the "mod" thing has here.  Call me by my name, @VW82.  When I'm talking football, I'm not speaking as a mod.

You are also misrepresenting somewhat.  The actual point of discussion was  a claim that Jackson would do as well or better than Allen, IF HE WERE DROPPED INTO OUR OFFENSE WITH OUR CURRENT PLAYERS in Buffalo.  

 

Nowhere did I say "he wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo", but I don't think he'd be better and quite likely not as well.

 

I also quoted you directly on that. Most mods are decent posters. Take it as a compliment.

 

You said:

Quote

If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all. 

 

I don't think this is a good take. It's pretty strong and you're basically implying that you're laughing at the people who think otherwise.

 

Besides, I think we've already seen Lamar in our system with worse players (i.e. Josh second half of last year).  If Lamar was just dropped in without a year to learn the system/teammates would he be manipulating safeties every now and then like we see Josh starting to do? Arguably not, but I think we'd see him scramble and have some huge rushing games like we saw from Josh. I''d even go so far as to argue we'd score more as an offense than we're currently scoring. Lamar is that good.

 

But I still think this is a weird thing to argue. What decently coached team brings in a new QB and doesn't tailor their offense around him? Sure you press the boundaries of the player and try to grow their game but mostly you're going to do what the player already does really well and emphasize teammates who fit that.       

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Besides, I think we've already seen Lamar in our system with worse players (i.e. Josh second half of last year).  If Lamar was just dropped in without a year to learn the system/teammates would he be manipulating safeties every now and then like we see Josh starting to do? Arguably not, but I think we'd see him scramble and have some huge rushing games like we saw from Josh. I''d even go so far as to argue we'd score more as an offense than we're currently scoring. Lamar is that good.

 

I'm not following you on the bolded.

 

I think we'd see Lamar scramble, but he'd have a lower productivity on the scrambles.  Last year Jackson ran for 64 more yards than Allen - but he did so on 59 more attempts.

 

Quote

Earlier, Hapless said: If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all. 

 

It is a pretty strong statement and a bit stronger than I remembered making, so that 's a fair cop.  But I still think it's probably true.  I give Jackson credit for playing a far more complete QB game than most here, and yes, he does sometimes manipulate the defense with his eyes, but there's a reason why Brown (from Baltimore) and Beasley (from Dallas) have both said that this is the most complex offense they've seen, and from what I've seen I think it would be a pretty big mismatch for Lamar's strengths as a QB and as player.

 

Quote

But I still think this is a weird thing to argue. What decently coached team brings in a new QB and doesn't tailor their offense around him?

 

Errr, well...I would say this one, primarily.  We are determined to teach Josh Allen to be a capable pocket passer, to read defensive coverage downfield, and to run a complicated, nuanced passing offense, sometimes without adequate pocket protection and without a reliable, sure-handed TE checkdown target.   We started the season asking him to implement a precision short-to-intermediate passing game leaning the throws that were his biggest weakness last year.  And to his credit, he did OK with it until he ran into very good defenses that are masters of disguise.  We have started as the season has gone on to incorporate some RPO concepts and better checkdowns, but that's not where we started at all and I still don't think we run an offense that is very comfortable for Allen.

 

I think we may have our reasons for why we're doing what we're doing, but that doesn't change what we're doing.

 

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Sure you press the boundaries of the player and try to grow their game but mostly you're going to do what the player already does really well and emphasize teammates who fit that.       

 

Do you feel that's what the Bills have done with Josh?

[VW82]

On 12/18/2019 at 2:30 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh was wildly inaccurate on a single throw and Collinsworth literally pointed to it in the broadcast in something like a "see, this is what I'm talking about" moment.

 

It was a little ridiculous.

 

He gushed over the defense, especially Edmunds, which I thought was weird because up until the last few games, Edmunds has been a little underwhelming.  I mean, it was hilarious because they actually replayed a play where Edmunds made a tackle and were raving about him on a play where he allowed a guy to get a 1st down.

 

Maybe they do their HW for our next SNF game, but I was really disappointed in the broadcast.

 

I think your expectations might be a little unrealistic. They promoted Edmunds because he a) clearly has a lot of talent (as do his brothers), and b) the Edmunds family story was something they'd decided in production meetings to promote to help get people interested in the game. Maybe I'm a sucker but it hooked me. They also spent a Tre'mendous amount of time gushing over White.

 

You listed Josh's worst throw but the pick was at least partly his fault too, and he had some others that required our receivers to make "tough" catches (and they didn't). The point is it wasn't like he was lighting it up and giving them a lot of obvious talking points in his favor. I'd rather listen to Nantz and Romo but Michaels and Collinsworth as still pretty good IMO.    

Edited December 20, 2019 by VW82

[VW82]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm not following you on the bolded.

 

Part of your argument is that Lamar just isn't as far along as Allen is as a passer, correct? I'm giving that point to you, and saying perhaps Lamar currently is about as far along as Josh was over the last six games last season. Except, as a runner/scrambler he's currently on a level that Josh has never approached and never will approach, and that would more than make up for the difference in their games as a passer IMO. 

 

Quote

I think we'd see Lamar scramble, but he'd have a lower productivity on the scrambles.  Last year Jackson ran for 64 more yards than Allen - but he did so on 59 more attempts.

 

I strongly disagree with the bolded. For starters, this year Josh has more scrambles but for less yardage than Lamar: 41 scrambles for 299 yards vs. 36 for 399. I'm not arguing last year Lamar vs. last year Allen. I'm just using second half last year Allen as a passer to approximate what Lamar would do as a passer on this team today. Current day Lamar would almost definitely have greater productivity on scrambles (and RPO and designed runs) than current day Josh Allen if he played in Buffalo. 

 

Quote

Errr, well...I would say this one, primarily.  We are determined to teach Josh Allen to be a capable pocket passer, to read defensive coverage downfield, and to run a complicated, nuanced passing offense, sometimes without adequate pocket protection and without a reliable, sure-handed TE checkdown target.   We started the season asking him to implement a precision short-to-intermediate passing game leaning the throws that were his biggest weakness last year.  And to his credit, he did OK with it until he ran into very good defenses that are masters of disguise.  We have started as the season has gone on to incorporate some RPO concepts and better checkdowns, but that's not where we started at all and I still don't think we run an offense that is very comfortable for Allen.

 

I think we may have our reasons for why we're doing what we're doing, but that doesn't change what we're doing.

 

Do you feel that's what the Bills have done with Josh?

 

I agree we're pushing Josh to grow and expand his game but weren't we noting after the Dallas game how we've been incorporating more run and shoot, roll outs, etc., designed to get him out of the pocket (i.e. tailoring the offense to what he does well)? What do you think we're not doing that might better take advantage of his strengths? 

 

I'd also point to Daboll moving to the booth and helping him with pre-snap reads as evidence that we're still protecting him and putting him positions to succeed, just like I'm arguing we'd do for Lamar. It's not like we're asking Josh to be Peyton Manning back there. I think Lamar would learn the system eventually, and we'd tailor it to him as we went along just as we've done for Josh. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by VW82

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, VW82 said:

Part of your argument is that Lamar just isn't as far along as Allen is as a passer, correct? I'm giving that point to you, and saying perhaps Lamar currently is about as far along as Josh was over the last six games last season. Except, as a runner/scrambler he's currently on a level that Josh has never approached and never will approach, and that would more than make up for the difference in their games as a passer IMO. 

 

Agree, Lamar is a "generational talent" as a runner.  In an offense tailored to maximize his productivity, I agree with you - that's exactly what we see in Baltimore this season.  He doesn't have that many more passing yards than Allen - what is it, Jackson has 13 more passing yards than Allen or something like that?  But way way more as a rusher.

 

The point is, that isn't the offense we're running.  It simply isn't designed to maximize the productivity of a running QB.  That's not what Daboll and McDermott wanted or want.  The whole contention that started this off was jrober's claim that 20 QB including LJax would match or exceed what Allen has done with this offense this year. 

Um, No.

 

Quote

I strongly disagree with the bolded. For starters, this year Josh has more scrambles but for less yardage than Lamar: 41 scrambles for 299 yards vs. 36 for 399. I'm not arguing last year Lamar vs. last year Allen. I'm just using second half last year Allen as a passer to approximate what Lamar would do as a passer on this team today. Current day Lamar would almost definitely have greater productivity on scrambles (and RPO and designed runs) than current day Josh Allen if he played in Buffalo. 

 

But you have to look at what Lamar achieved as a runner last year to compare evenly.  This year, the whole blocking scheme isn't just designed for his designed runs; look at what the OL does when he scrambles, and his TE.  Just as we have a "secondary route" passing game that develops when we have time, Baltimore has a "secondary blocking scheme" designed to help Jackson when he scrambles.  (We do too, for that matter, it's just not as effective or extensive in part because of the TE)

 

Quote

I agree we're pushing Josh to grow and expand his game but weren't we noting after the Dallas game how we've been incorporating more run and shoot, roll outs, etc., designed to get him out of the pocket (i.e. tailoring the offense to what he does well)? What do you think we're not doing that might better take advantage of his strengths?

 

Run and shoot isn't working well for us against top defenses IMO because we don't (always) have the OL and/or deep passing game to back off the pass rush and give the 2ndary routes time to develop.  RPOs are helpful, but we waited until what, week 11 vs Mia? to start featuring them more? 

 

We waited until more than halfway through the season and watching Allen struggle against a couple of defenses that successfully bemused him and shut us down, to make changes that helped, and we were equally slow to make (or had nothing appropriate in the gameplan) adjustments in the Baltimore game even while our OL was getting pwned in the 11 set and our WR were getting undressed.

 

I'm not trying to warm up the tar and pitchforks for Daboll, honest.  I think he does some great and creative stuff, actually.  With so many new pieces on OL, it's possibly the right move to go slowly and not be knee-jerk about making changes.  But the fact is, we have gone slowly, and there's no reason to think that the skills and strengths Lamar has displayed would have been flexed for better or faster.

 

Quote

I'd also point to Daboll moving to the booth and helping him with pre-snap reads as evidence that we're still protecting him and putting him positions to succeed, just like I'm arguing we'd do for Lamar. It's not like we're asking Josh to be Peyton Manning back there. I think Lamar would learn the system eventually, and we'd tailor it to him as we went along just as we've done for Josh. 

 

But again, while I agree that some of these things help Josh (I question how much help he's getting on pre snap reads but that's another question), that's my point.  Daboll moved to the booth and we stopped swapping around personnel on every down and started working a no-huddle offense in Week 11.  More than half the season had gone by.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

A little nugget from Fairburn's Athletic article regarding random things before the game that might be especially relevant to those pounding the table about Passer Rating:

https://theathletic.com/1478641/2019/12/21/leftover-bills-thoughts-josh-allens-challenge-of-facing-bill-belichick-a-second-time-jordan-phillips-snub-and-other-notes?source=shared-article

It’s also worth noting that on passes from 1 to 29 yards in the air, Allen has 15 touchdowns to seven interceptions and a 91.6 passer rating. Those have been a bigger focus for the coaching staff and make up a much more significant chunk of the offense (320 attempts to 24)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

A little nugget from Fairburn's Athletic article regarding random things before the game that might be especially relevant to those pounding the table about Passer Rating:

https://theathletic.com/1478641/2019/12/21/leftover-bills-thoughts-josh-allens-challenge-of-facing-bill-belichick-a-second-time-jordan-phillips-snub-and-other-notes?source=shared-article

It’s also worth noting that on passes from 1 to 29 yards in the air, Allen has 15 touchdowns to seven interceptions and a 91.6 passer rating. Those have been a bigger focus for the coaching staff and make up a much more significant chunk of the offense (320 attempts to 24)

 

Ah, yes, the Greatest Show on Turf.

Shall we say the Rams maybe went to the Superbowl against the pats, a little bit overconfident?  Warner threw 2 picks and fumbled in their earlier meeting.  But he did that while throwing for 400 yds (in a 24-17 game).  So we get to the Superbowl and Belicheck said "Yeah, you're going to rack up the big yards but we're going to keep you out of the endzone and we're going to capitalize a bit more on your goofs" and the Pats won 20-17.

 

Brady, for those keeping track, passed for 145 yds in that victory.  145 yds.  1 TD.  2 of 11 on 3rd down.

 

So I was also interested in this tid-bit:

Warner was asked about the deep-ball struggles Allen has had this season. His 40-yard completion to John Brown last week was just his second of 30 or more air yards this season. There’s plenty of debate over whether deep accuracy is something quarterbacks develop over time. Warner was one of the great deep throwers of all time, and he pointed to Aaron Rodgers as a quarterback who was able to make tremendous strides in that area.

 

“I think you can always get better with time,” Warner said. “What you see with guys with strong arms is they have to learn how to become a passer. Big part of that is the deep part of the game. They can throw it a long way but that’s not all you need throwing a deep ball. You want it up in the air to give your guy a chance to adjust to it. A guy like Josh is throwing with such velocity that there’s less arch and less adjustment time. You have to put it right on the money to be accurate if you’re throwing it flat. If you’re off a little bit there’s not ability as the ball is coming down for your receiver to track it. You need to put more arch on the ball, giving receivers a better chance to compete for the football. The farther the throw is, the harder it is to be accurate and put it on the money.”

 

[oldmanfan]

Allen has a 59.3% completion rate.  Roughly the same as Winston’s interception rate.

[VW82]

On 12/18/2019 at 2:30 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I disagree.

 

I watched every single pass of Allen after the season was over along with every single pass made in the rookie seasons of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Wentz, and Watson.

 

Josh was no less accurate on the whole than any of those other rookies after tracking all those passes.

 

It's not accuracy.

 

 

Sorry, transplantbillsfan. You can say you've watched every pass of his career but don't tell me he doesn't have accuracy problems, and what's worse they tend to show up in big moments of big games. We had guys running open in the back of the end zone today that he just missed. There were countless other wild and/or inaccurate throws throughout the game.  

 

I agree his biggest weakness is still processing time and making good, quick decisions. But he has accuracy problems too. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by VW82

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, VW82 said:

 

Sorry, transplantbillsfan. You can say you've watched every pass of his career but don't tell me he doesn't have accuracy problems, and what's worse they tend to show up in big moments of big games. We had guys running open in the back of the end zone today that he just missed. There were countless other wild and/or inaccurate throws throughout the game.  

 

I agree his biggest weakness is still processing time and making good, quick decisions. But he has accuracy problems too. 

 

Literally just updated this thread.

 

Allen was shook for much of this game, yet he was also the main reason the Bills were still in it with a chance to win it or tie it in the last minute of the game.

 

Completion percentage aside for this game (50%... bringing his season total down to 56.6%), Allen looked SIGNIFICANTLY better than he did against the Patriots or Ravens earlier this season.

 

Allen was seeing ghosts, which altered his throwing platform and hurt his accuracy--extremely evident today--but he also made a number of incredible throws AND plays with his legs.

[No_Matter_What]

OP you miscalculated it. He is at 58,8% right now (title says 56,6% ATM)

[Tesla03]

so much for improving his completion % this year 

 

took a total nose dive in the last 3 weeks. 

[zow2]

58% or whatever is just not good enough. I’d like to see more dink and dunk stuff like they design for Brady, and more scrambling.

[No_Matter_What]

Just now, Tesla03 said:

so much for improving his completion % this year 

 

took a total nose dive in the last 3 weeks. 

 

At least you have something to be happy about.

[Matt_In_NH]

Keeps coming down.   But he is still improving to me.  He comes out hyped up in big games and misses a lot then calms down and settles in.