Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um....if you've watched the Ravens play, they never take their foot off the gas.  The Ravens will be ahead and Lamar will still be slinging it.

Do you have a breakdown of their passing attempts by half?  Lamar threw a bunch of late tds against the Jets but he was insanely efficient and they weren’t throwing it a ton. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good point on Andrews, but definitely hard to say who helps who the most. I was really high on Andrews coming out and figured he would be pretty good wherever he went. Still funny to me that they took Hurst in the first and he has been largely outplayed by the third rounder. 

 

I don't think Hap is trying to discredit him. I think it's a fair point to question if he could have the same success here in such a different system and with such a comparably bare cupboard. Jackson is a good football player and does alright at throwing the ball. If he can manage to stay healthy and not have to change the amount that he runs, he'll be good for a long time. He doesn't (i think) fit under the same grouping of gimmicky, running QB's that can be figured out by Defenses easily and then stopped for two reasons: 1- he runs like no other QB ever has, better than most RB's ever have. 2- He does have really good arm talent and if you sell out to stop him, he can make enough throws to make you pay (see pass to Hurst as example). That being said, if his game is forced to change where he can't run, or he loses his elusiveness, he will need to develop an ability to go through reads (so many passes right now are 1 reads because the offense is so efficient) and the capability to pass outside the numbers. As of yet, we haven't seen that. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

[aristocrat]

man this thread is non stop

[PaattMaann]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again nit picking, why is it a given that Allen is a better passer than Jackson? He has never been a better passer at any level than Jackson. Not when Jackson was passing in ACC and Allen was in the MWC.  And not so far in the nfl.  Allen certainly has the stronger arm and could be.  But he has not been so far.  And given that Jackson will be the mvp, it’s not even a knock.  But man, if We had Jackson, people would be falling all over themselves praising him.

 

I will answer with my personal opinion, the eye test. Ive watched them both, virtually every NFL game (allen for sure, probably 90 percent of Lamars), and most of Lamars in college. Lamar has a passable arm (again, to my eye test), whereas Allen has the indisputable "can make every throw". They both have accuracy issues. So I will go with the guy who actually can physically make every throw, and is still extremely dangerous with his legs, and I think can hold up to the beatings a mobile QB will take...I Don't think Lamar will. Lamar has been surrounded by talent and scheme so far in the NFL (not in college, his senior year offense was laughably bad in the talent department), Allen is barely scratching the surface in that department. 

 

Im choosing Allen over potential for sustained greatness. I think both could be really dangerous in the NFL, I just personally think Jackson is the riskier bet because it depends on an offense being tailored to his strenghts, where as Allen could develop into a "plug and play" QB. 

 

If Lamar Jackson were on the Bills we wouldnt be running that same offense and he wouldnt be having an MVP Season, I would bet my life on that. BUT, you are right, if he was on the Bills and playing like he is for the Ravens then I would be stanning for him hardcore....but that aint reality. 

[aristocrat]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

and allen has worse receivers than jackson

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Just nit picking here but Jackson didn’t inherit an elite TE like Gronk or Kelce.  Andrews was drafted in the 3 round. Jackson deserves a lot of credit for his success since they both came into together.

 

this isn’t really directed at you because you are very reasonable with your posts. But people work really hard to discredit Jackson. Yes he is in a good system.  But maybe the Heisman trophy winner who is going to be the NFL is just a good qb.

Newton was off to the best passing season of his career in 2018 before he got hurt. 

 

They also drafted Andrews after they took Hurst--who was drafted 8 picks before Lamar.

 

Baltimore spent 1st round picks on pass catchers for Lamar in consecutive drafts, and backed it up by taking Andrews in the 3rd and signing Ingram.

 

^More for clarification on their investment in the skill positions than anything else.

[transplantbillsfan]

23 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

 

The league has changed.

 

Offensive lines have gotten worse overall... probably because of collective bargaining and limited practices.

 

Who are the best QBs in the NFL drafted within the last 15 years?

 

How many of those guys are statuesque (or close to it) like the QBs you just mentioned?

 

Allen is honestly the prototype of the NEW QB, and if he keeps improving, Bills fans very well might build a statue of him in Buffalo the way Jordan Palmer said we would.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good point on Andrews, but definitely hard to say who helps who the most. I was really high on Andrews coming out and figured he would be pretty good wherever he went. Still funny to me that they took Hurst in the first and he has been largely outplayed by the third rounder. 

 

I don't think Hap is trying to discredit him. I think it's a fair point to question if he could have the same success here in such a different system and with such a comparably bare cupboard. Jackson is a good football player and does alright at throwing the ball. If he can manage to stay healthy and not have to change the amount that he runs, he'll be good for a long time. He doesn't (i think) fit under the same grouping of gimmicky, running QB's that can be figured out by Defenses easily and then stopped for two reasons: 1- he runs like no other QB ever has, better than most RB's ever have. 2- He does have really good arm talent and if you sell out to stop him, he can make enough throws to make you pay (see pass to Hurst as example). That being said, if his game is forced to change where he can't run, or he loses his elusiveness, he will need to develop an ability to go through reads (so many passes right now are 1 reads because the offense is so efficient) and the capability to pass outside the numbers. As of yet, we haven't seen that. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

[jrober38]

Just now, aristocrat said:

 

and allen has worse receivers than jackson

 

I disagree.

 

I think Brown is a very good receiver and Beasley is fine in the slot.

 

Brown is way better than anything the Ravens have.

[Pokebball]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's one investment strategy. Another is to take the sure thing and bank the dividends every year. 

 

Do you think the Ravens would have 12 guys in the Pro Bowl if they weren't 12-2 and the leading scoring offense in the NFL?

One investment strategy is short-term.  The other is long-term.

 

I think you missed my point about collective talent, perhaps intentionally.

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not true Doc.  He was 2nd in passing attempts and led the nfl in tds his 2nd year as a starter.  

I think a better comparison right now is a young Big Ben. He was a more refined passer but less of a threat with his legs. Ben won a ton of games in the 4th quarter after 3 quarters of lackluster play and his defense keeping them in games. Was there a more clutch qb from 05 until about 2010? 
 

heck, the year they went 12-4 and won the super bowl in 08, he threw for a mere 3100 yds 17 td and 15 int but it seemed like every week he was orchestrating the game winning drive. Living in Stiller country I couldn’t stand the hype he got with the manner in which he won games. I personally think Ben became a much better qb over the last half of his career..... Now that I’m on the same side of the fence as they were i sorta get it now.  Haha. 

[PaattMaann]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

Brown could EASILY run those outside routes, because hes a deep threat. He has all the cushion and space in the world to run those routes. Our Brown runs those routes ALL THE TIME and Allen connects for those same exact reasons. I THINK they dont run those routes in Baltimore because A) they dont need to right now and B) it doesnt play to Lamars strenghts. You need serious arm strength to pound that ball in time or its an eaassssyyy pick for the D, even with cushion (see Nate Peterman - not saying thats the level of Lamars arm strength at all). My knock on Lamar going back to college hasnt been accuracy, its been total strength. Even his middle of the field throws lack the ZIP that I want, and that I see on Allens. Love this debate by the way. 

[ILBillsfan]

30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'm not a huge Jackson guy.

 

My issue is that Allen still has miles to go before he's a legit franchise QB.

 

That may or may not happen.

 

Knowing how hard it is to find a QB, I'd rather have a guy who I'm pretty sure is a top 10 QB over a guy who needs a lot to go right to ever get to that level. 

Miles...he is not far from 65% passing......has a 2:1 TD/Int ration not hard to fathom going into the  25-30 range next year yard per ....more completions would move to more steadily in the 250-275 yards per games .... upper 80's rating into the 90s next year or mid 40s to mid to upper 50's next year..

 

But this is miles away ehhhhh....so jaded and so negative

[jrober38]

Just now, Pokebball said:

One investment strategy is short-term.  The other is long-term.

 

I think you missed my point about collective talent, perhaps intentionally.

 

I don't view the Ravens as being significantly more talented than the Bills. 

 

Our defense is better than theirs. 

 

Our offensive personnel isn't a lot worse. They're better at tight end and have two premiere linemen, but I think we have better receivers. 

[whatdrought]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

Chicken Egg. He doesn't pass outside so his WR's don't make plays. Watch some of his games, even against the Jets (whom are terrible and are starting Betty White at CB) his passes were all middle routes or posts. 

 

9 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Let's try this explanation for you.  Think about buying a QB similar to buying a stock or other security.  The theory is to buy low and sell high.  An investor wants the greatest return on their investment.  What you're wanting to do here is to buy a QB at their high and sell a QB that most all of the experts say is a QB with a high ceiling, or in other words has a significant opportunity for a better ROI than the QB already at or close to the high. 

 

Your question, would you trade straight across, is a silly hypothetical to begin with.  That's not how this would work.  The Bills would have to pay for the higher QB at that higher value, and therefore give up the potential ROI.  Business men and women do not do that.  The Pegulas and Beanes are making what they consider to be the best ROI for the organization.

 

Additionally, you can't consider one player, in your case the QB, without looking at the other assets around that one player.  You have to consider the synergy created by when you surround good players with other good players (you know, the 2+2=5 dynamic).  The Bills put one guy on the pro bowl.  The Ravens put 12.  I think this considerations discounts your argument most significantly.

 

Just a few thoughts for you to consider.

 

Let me know if you ever write a book! lol

 

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um....if you've watched the Ravens play, they never take their foot off the gas.  The Ravens will be ahead and Lamar will still be slinging it.

 

Example: Jets game- He threw more when the game was done than he did before.

 

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

 

Right, but with two players who have always played together, it's impossible to determine who is "making" who. Andrews has had some great catches that have bailed out Lamar, that is for sure. 

 

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Do you have a breakdown of their passing attempts by half?  Lamar threw a bunch of late tds against the Jets but he was insanely efficient and they weren’t throwing it a ton. 

 

Quarter: 

1- 88

2- 90

3- 103

4- 88 

 

Half: 

1st: 178

2nd: 191

 

Doesn't fit the "they stop passing later in games when they have the lead" idea. 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

Why would he bother? He’s routinely throwing anywhere else on the field to guys that are comically wide open.  

[aristocrat]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Brown is a very good receiver and Beasley is fine in the slot.

 

Brown is way better than anything the Ravens have.

 

overall the ravens have a better core, and group of rbs. 

[LB3]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

This comment made me think and then look at the best tight ends. They're all generally 3rd round or later. Scouts really seem to struggle with this. Drafting a tight end in the first round looks like the worst thing a team could do actually.

[ILBillsfan]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

Jackson legs are the reason guys are wide open as they lack discipline.   The TD pass to Hurst was a perfect example one slip up by the safeties getting caught looking in the backfield.

 

It's stupid crazy how much it is happening this year.  Good for him but eventually his legs will go poof and then we shall see if he can play QB  I say the inaccuracy will become very telling.  It's not an if it's a when will his legs get an injury that slows him down.

[Pokebball]

4 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

overall the ravens have a better core, and group of rbs. 

This isn't at all debatable. it's kinda silly to argue otherwise, right?