Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The defense wasn't lights out?

 

They allowed 7 points until 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

 

What on earth are you talking about?

 

Allen played really well.

 

So did the whole damn team.

insufferable. The Bills defense was -8 expected points on defense their third worst performance this year after Philly and Cleve. That's what I'm talking about.

 

Over and out. Done

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not trying to defend him but he did say it was his best game.  
 

I think we get a little emotional defending our players (which is reasonable).  I readily admit Allen scared me as a prospect. I’m still not completely sold but I do think he has shown he can be at worst an average starting qb in this league.  But if you watch the top guys, it does look a little different.  But the great news is we are beating who we should beat and made the playoffs without a miracle.  Allen will have plenty of chances to prove himself (though he will be kept in check from the coaches to a certain extent).  
 

I think we have taken advantage of a pretty weak schedule but we won the games we should have won.  Now, this will be really fun to see where we really match up.  I can’t remember being this truly excited as a Bills fan in a long time.

Yeah he did, but went on to ask if Allen had ever carried the team since maybe Minnesota last year.

 

Me too. Like you, I can admit when my opinions need revisiting..

 

Agreed. It is so much fun thinking about the next few weeks. Enjoy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think the following QBs would all have equalled or out produced the points production we've produced this year in our offense with this defense and special teams supporting them. I think we'd be 10-4 if you swapped any of them with Allen into this 53 man roster. 

 

Jackson, Brees, Watson, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Cousins, Prescott, Ryan, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, Wentz, Murray, Roethlisberger, Brissett, Mayfield, Bridgewater, Rivers.

 

I think Daniel Jones, Darnold and Jameis Winston (his turnovers wouldn't matter because our defense is so good) would all be close.  

 

You're funny!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't know, of course, but I doubt he's not seeing the field. His instinct is always to go for the bigger gain.

 

I don't know if it's his instinct or the reads on the play.

 

I think early on in Baltimore, he was supposed to take the deep shots if they were there.  Part of the problem is our receivers are small and susceptible to being slowed down by physical defense if the refs let the DB get grabby.  Part of the problem is technique when he's throwing from a muddled pocket.

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're funny!

Here’s the thing.  You’re arguing with someone who specifically stated he only shows up after losses because there’s nothing to say after wins.  Why would a purported fan of the team do that?    So it’s surprising he’s saying anything this week.  You’re arguing with someone who would have traded an entire draft for Jameis Winston, and now says he’d be as good as Allen even given his picks.  You’re arguing with a guy who seems to think he’s a QB expert and stats expert but shows no evidence of either.

 

In short, it’s not worth arguing with someone bereft of logic.

 

I also get sick of the stuff from more than a few people about how Allen hasn’t put the team on his back or that he couldn’t carry them to a win.  First, these folks need to look up the definition of the word team.  Second, it would be pretty damn dumb to not rely on the kind of quality defense we have.  Third, Allen is among the leaders if not the leader in fourth quarter comebacks so to say he can’t put the team on his back is absurd in its face.

 

Finally, no one- let me reap at no one- believes Allen is a finished product.  I’ll say agin:  no one.  And the implication people are saying so is crap.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think where we are at is we have a young qb who plays with a really good defense who has become a solid game manager.

 

Allen is tied with Russell Wilson for the most game winning drives and the most 4th quarter comebacks on the season. That is not a game manager stat.

[HappyDays]

I find this whole conversation fascinating because I don't really care where Allen ranks statistically today, in context with the rest of the league. I care where he ranks statistically in context with himself. If you look at his career in 8 game increments he has shown continual improvement at every stage. The Pats game this year is the only time I saw clear regression, and it scared the crap out me. Beyond that he has never once plateaued or regressed over a consecutive multiple game sample size. There's no guarantee he will continue getting better, but what is the point of having the conversation now before we know the QB he will become?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are carrying their teams. That's the level I consider carrying a team. 

 

Perhaps you should define what you mean by "carrying their teams"  To me, "carrying the team" means the guy is the principle reason they win and can do whatever it takes to win.  Mahomes, last year, carried the Chiefs.  Their defense kind of sucked (24th on points, 31st on yards).  They gave up all kinds of points, and Mahomes had to "Cowboy up" and match them.  He did.  He also had some outstanding skill players, in Hill and Kelce and 11 games of Hunt.

 

Russell Wilson did not "carry his team" his first 3 years in the league.  He was supported by a top-5 rushing attack for yards (top 1 or 2 for attempts) and a very strong defense (#1 both years).  He threw efficiently (good completion %, few INTs) for about 200 ypg, enough to keep the defense honest and let the running game thrive and was able to lead 4Q comebacks when needed.

 

Lamar Jackson is playing lights-out.  But he also has tons of support in the rest of the team.  The Ravens defense is #4 on points, and the last 7 games has been better than that - #2 I think.  Because the Ravens defense is so stifling, Jackson has very rarely had to play from behind.  In the games where he has - vs KC and the Browns, the Steelers - they lost the first 2 and won in overtime by a FG on the 3rd.  The Ravens have the #1 rushing attack in the league for both attempts and yards, which of course Lamar Jackson is part of, but he's certainly not all - the other 2 backs have ~35% more combined rushing yards than he does.   The Ravens skill players include a 1st round RB who has sure hands as a receiver, a 1st round WR, a 1st round TE, a 3rd round TE who has really come on in his 2nd year.  Their OL is very good and very well coached.

 

If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all. 

 

Your full list of QB who you think we'd have the same record with is really pretty funny. 

 

Jackson, Brees, Watson, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Cousins, Prescott, Ryan, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, Wentz, Murray, Roethlisberger, Brissett, Mayfield, Bridgewater, Rivers.

I think Daniel Jones, Darnold and Jameis Winston (his turnovers wouldn't matter because our defense is so good) would all be close.  

 

 

And yes, Winston's turnovers would matter.  Turnovers always matter, even with a strong D.

 

I hate it when people toss the word "troll" around, but either you truly are trolling or you fundamentally lack some football "nous".  The statement about how Winston's turnovers wouldn't matter because our defense is so good and the idea that Cousins could flourish here or Rivers... RIVERS .....too too funny. (They aren't the only QB on your list who would fail here, just the most extreme examples)

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Coaching and defense matter.

 

Contrary to popular belief, football is a team sport.

 

Hmmmmmm.

[Sundancer]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Yes. There are at least 20 QBs in the NFL right now who would be leading this offense to the same or better productivity than Allen has done so far. 

 

You think 20 QBs would have 27 TDs so far this season?

 

Get real. 

 

This offense can be better. Allen can be better. 

 

But this offense is not all his fault. AND this offense is doing what's asked of it. 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen is tied with Russell Wilson for the most game winning drives and the most 4th quarter comebacks on the season. That is not a game manager stat.

Wilson has a 109 qb rating, leads the 4th ranked offense, and plays with the 6th worst defense.  Wilson is the only reason that team is a playoff team. Not exactly apples to apples. 

 

In 2011, Sanchez had 4 4th quarter comebacks. In 2015, Bortles had 4 game winning drives. Great defenses were the main reason why.  I’m pretty sure Allen is better than them but again, the stat can be really misleading.  Some of these games could have been over well before the 4th with better offensive production (not all on Allen obviously).  
 

but plenty of big moments coming up and hopefully he can become a Wilson type qb in the future.  But if we had Wilson, we might be the afc favorites. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Sundancer said:

You think 20 QBs would have 27 TDs so far this season?

 

Get real. 

 

This offense can be better. Allen can be better. 

 

But this offense is not all his fault. AND this offense is doing what's asked of it.

 

For sure.  Of course 14 of them have refused to do it so far...

[Kelly the Dog]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) the Kelly comparison is completely invalid because it’s a completely different nfl.  This era is steroids to qb stats.

 

2) as much as I would love to see if Allen can carry this team, there is no way that is happening this year. We have won 10 games with Allen as a game manager. No way they are going to change things now. And I have a feeling that is from the head coach. 

You’re absolutely right. IMO both Josh and Daboll if given the choice would have a much more wide open offense, take more chances, score more points, get better stats, make more turnovers and mistakes. But McDermott doesn’t let them. That doesn’t mean McD is wrong (although imo he is). 

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen is tied with Russell Wilson for the most game winning drives and the most 4th quarter comebacks on the season. That is not a game manager stat.

It could very well be if your coach demands you’re a game manager until mid fourth quarter when you no longer can be. To me that’s what’s happening. 

[Sundancer]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

You’re absolutely right. IMO both Josh and Daboll if given the choice would have a much more wide open offense, take more chances, score more points, get better stats, make more turnovers and mistakes. But McDermott doesn’t let them. That doesn’t mean McD is wrong (although imo he is). 

It could very well be if your coach demands you’re a game manager until mid fourth quarter when you no longer can be. To me that’s what’s happening. 

 

It is 100% the plan and it is working. 

 

Josh needs this skill of game management  too and I'm fine that he's learning it. 

[Doc]

Brady was a game manager until about his 7th season starting.

[oldmanfan]

You have to laugh sometimes.  We have a really good defense and instead of celebrating that some want to use it to bash a second year QB they didn’t think would be any good, and can’t stand to think they could be wrong.

[BigBuff423]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Perhaps you should define what you mean by "carrying their teams"  To me, "carrying the team" means the guy is the principle reason they win and can do whatever it takes to win.  Mahomes, last year, carried the Chiefs.  Their defense kind of sucked (24th on points, 31st on yards).  They gave up all kinds of points, and Mahomes had to "Cowboy up" and match them.  He did.  He also had some outstanding skill players, in Hill and Kelce and 11 games of Hunt.

 

Russell Wilson did not "carry his team" his first 3 years in the league.  He was supported by a top-5 rushing attack for yards (top 1 or 2 for attempts) and a very strong defense (#1 both years).  He threw efficiently (good completion %, few INTs) for about 200 ypg, enough to keep the defense honest and let the running game thrive and was able to lead 4Q comebacks when needed.

 

Lamar Jackson is playing lights-out.  But he also has tons of support in the rest of the team.  The Ravens defense is #4 on points, and the last 7 games has been better than that - #2 I think.  Because the Ravens defense is so stifling, Jackson has very rarely had to play from behind.  In the games where he has - vs KC and the Browns, the Steelers - they lost the first 2 and won in overtime by a FG on the 3rd.  The Ravens have the #1 rushing attack in the league for both attempts and yards, which of course Lamar Jackson is part of, but he's certainly not all - the other 2 backs have ~35% more combined rushing yards than he does.   The Ravens skill players include a 1st round RB who has sure hands as a receiver, a 1st round WR, a 1st round TE, a 3rd round TE who has really come on in his 2nd year.  Their OL is very good and very well coached.

 

If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all. 

 

Your full list of QB who you think we'd have the same record with is really pretty funny. 

 

Jackson, Brees, Watson, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Cousins, Prescott, Ryan, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, Wentz, Murray, Roethlisberger, Brissett, Mayfield, Bridgewater, Rivers.

I think Daniel Jones, Darnold and Jameis Winston (his turnovers wouldn't matter because our defense is so good) would all be close.  

 

 

And yes, Winston's turnovers would matter.  Turnovers always matter, even with a strong D.

 

I hate it when people toss the word "troll" around, but either you truly are trolling or you fundamentally lack some football "nous".  The statement about how Winston's turnovers wouldn't matter because our defense is so good and the idea that Cousins could flourish here or Rivers... RIVERS .....too too funny. (They aren't the only QB on your list who would fail here, just the most extreme examples)

 

 

Hap - we don't always agree (no one does), but in virtually every post - even the short ones - I really appreciate your reasoning and the way you lay out your argument. In the one noted above, we do agree - but even when we don't I can respect the fashion in which you share your perspective. I wish there was more of this around the board and less "nany-nany-poo-poo, you stink". 

 

Anyways, tip of the hat - just because it's overdue. Thanks.

#GoBills!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

54 minutes ago, Doc said:

Brady was a game manager until about his 7th season starting.

 

I would say more like 4th, 2nd SB, but your point stands: most of the league's current crop of great QB were not "all that" until several years into their playing careers.

 

That's the paradox of finding a good QB.  There are some, of course, who just never get out of the gate for one or another reason: Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Brandon Weedon.  "Right Josh" Rosen may be one of those.

 

There are some QB who are exceptional as soon as they step on the field, which may not be their first year - Desean Watson, Patrick Mahomes.

 

And then there are the rest to different degrees - Tom Brady, Russ Wilson, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortle, Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky.   Alex Smith and even Drew Brees would be extreme examples.  They show good things.  They show gaps.  Over the first couple years, with enough pieces around them on the team, they win. 

 

And then if the team is lucky and the QB adds hard work to his talents, they take a step and you've got someone.  The first 1-3 years are usually a waiting game with a hoped-for NFL starter.  The hard part for the team is if it has success, and now it's year 4 and the guy wants to get paid, and the team is still saying "Are you or aren't you?"

 

The point to remember is that several of today's premier QB in their first years did not look as they do today.  And several did not see the field, they got the "watch and learn" pass their first 1-3 years.

[jrober38]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all. 

 

 

This is maybe the dumbest thing I've read on this board in a long time. It is a perfect example of the rampant homerism some people have on this board when defending Josh Allen.

 

To suggest that Lamar Jackson, the front runner for MVP, wouldn't be able to replicate what Josh Allen, who is in the bottom 10 of most QB stat categories, is beyond absurd.  

Edited December 18, 2019 by jrober38

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

This is maybe the dumbest thing I've read on this board in a long time. It is a perfect example of the rampant homerism some people have on this board when defending Josh Allen.

 

To suggest that Lamar Jackson, the front runner for MVP, wouldn't be able to replicate what Josh Allen, who is in the bottom 10 of most QB stat categories, is beyond absurd. 

 

Unbelievable. 

Almost as unbelievable as trading an entire draft for Winston.  But I would agree Jackson would do well here provided Daboll designed the offense appropriately.

 

By the way, are you going to mention Allen being the top in fourth quarter comebacks or are you just going to continue to cherry pick stats?

[section122]

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not trying to defend him but he did say it was his best game.  
 

I think we get a little emotional defending our players (which is reasonable).  I readily admit Allen scared me as a prospect. I’m still not completely sold but I do think he has shown he can be at worst an average starting qb in this league.  But if you watch the top guys, it does look a little different.  But the great news is we are beating who we should beat and made the playoffs without a miracle.  Allen will have plenty of chances to prove himself (though he will be kept in check from the coaches to a certain extent).  
 

I think we have taken advantage of a pretty weak schedule but we won the games we should have won.  Now, this will be really fun to see where we really match up.  I can’t remember being this truly excited as a Bills fan in a long time.

 

To your bolded we also get a little emotional watching the games.  This year I have rewatched almost every single game (not the Eagles lol).  It strikes me the second time around, knowing what will happen, how much different Josh's performance looks.  Specifically the Browns game sticks out in my mind.  He wasn't great at all but he wasn't nearly as terrible as I thought he was in real time.  The Ravens games looked better as well.  He had some really untimely drops against the Ravens that ended drives through no fault of his own.  I'm not saying he is perfect or anything of the sort just that we are emotional when seeing the games because we live and die with each throw.  When we watch other qbs their bad passes don't stick in our minds because we don't care.

 

 

11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But if we had Wilson, we might be the afc favorites. 

 

Interesting thought exercise here of how many teams would this apply to?  At first I thought duh so would every team but I'm actually not sure that is true. 

 

Chiefs and Texans I think would stick with their guys, Ravens as well. 

However I think this year the Patriots, Steelers, and the Bills if trading would be the favorites because of their defenses.  

Some of the interesting teams though are on the outside looking in.  The Colts and Browns I think would move into playoff territory but maybe not AFC favorites.  It would be interesting to see Wilson with the talent at WR that Cleveland possesses.