Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[whatdrought]

It is my observation that there are people on this board who, like the national media, did such a good job leading up to to the ‘18 draft convincing themselves that Wrong Josh would never succeed, that now they can’t help but die on that hill. I say to that, good luck. I’m sure that whatever team Rosen is on next year will have a message board, feel free to head that way when the goal posts get too heavy for you to schlep around. 

[LSHMEAB]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Part of where I am, and I admit there is subjectivity, is that there doesn't seem to be recognition that Allen is being judged in the context of his tools, without recognition of that context.

 

What I mean is exemplified by assessment of the pass he sailed to Beasley, that was picked.  Was it a throw that rose on him, likely due to poor footwork?  Yes.  Could he make a better throw?  Also Yes.   Does Kittle in SF, or Andrews in Balt, or James Washington,  or 6'5" Collinsworth, make that catch?  Very high probability, Yes.  And then it's a completion, and no one is microanalysing Garappolo or Jackson or Duck or Ken Anderson's mechanics. 

 

As has been pointed out elsewhere, "drops" are a conservative metric where the scorers use pretty restricted criteria on what they call a drop, and even with that, Allen is leading the league and it isn't close.  The Beasley throw would no way be scored as a drop, and yet it is an eminently catchable ball for many TE and WR on many teams.

 

 

Right, so I fully understand and even agree with your post. But ball placement remains an issue. As I said, some really headscratching throws a few times a game and the deep ball isn't there. There is plenty of room for improvement. 

 

BUT. Your point stands that with an elite player (or two) at his disposal, some of those below average throws become completions or at the very least, incompletions. The offense is far from great in terms of raw talent.

 

So what will happen is that Beane will (hopefully) acquire at least one elite talent at a skill position. The Josh Allen story is only a chapter or two long. We'll find out much more when he's got a stud "weapon" at which point alot of the hypothetical stuff becomes moot. There are plenty of reasons for optimism and some reasons for concern.

 

My prevailing "feeling" right now is that the formula is working to a great extent considering the talent. The defense keeps them in the game. Allen very often makes plays in the 4th. The BILLS are 10-4!

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

We won't know your last question for another 2 - 3 years.  It takes 4 to 5 years in total before you can really be sure if you have a franchise QB.  But everything I've seen to date is trending in the right direction.

 

But I do disagree to a point with your notion that Allen is only a game manager and is not being asked to win games only to not lose them.  As you mention in your post, Allen has led 5 game winning drives which to me means that they really do ask him, in a limited way, to win some games for them.

 

 

I guess the counter is that you shouldn’t need a 4th quarter comeback to beat Duck with 3 ints (last one was desperation).  The Opener against the Jets is a blowout in the first half if not for the defense.  We are 22nd in points and yards.  
 

again, we are 10-4 and that is awesome so I don’t want to nit pick.  But there is a lot of room for improvement. This defense is the MVP and is allowing Allen to grow into the role.  It’s a good situation. 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think where we are at is we have a young qb who plays with a really good defense who has become a solid game manager. He has big play ability, especially with his running right now.  Allen isn’t being asked to win games but rather not lose them.  And if we keep the game close, he has shown ability to led late drives to win them, which is big. 

 

i think where some people have questions is if he is truly a franchise guy who is young and playing to his team’s strengths (ala Brady, Big Ben, Wilson) and grow with more experience. And The other side are the Bortles, Mitch T, and Sanchez (he’s better than Sanchez).  We probably won’t have an answer this year because I think the team is very comfortable with the current formula. As someone who has certainly had questions about Allen, I’m just going to enjoy the ride and hope for the best.  

 

That's a totally reasonable and defensible position 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

And that's why this coaching staff is very good.  Knowing your limitations is probably more important then knowing your strengths!

 

 

Well it’s a chicken and egg debate. We have the luxury of a good defense, which takes pressure off the offense and QB. I think Josh would be chucking it if we were allowing 25 ppg on the defensive end.

 

It’s sometimes understated how much a good defense helps an offense. The Jets would carry Sanchez until the late stages. The Broncos in 2015 with a horrific corpse of Peyton punted like 5 times in a row in the AFCCG vs the Pats once they had a lead because they trusted their defense.

Edited December 18, 2019 by FireChans

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Many seem to forget that a couple weeks ago against Dallas he played a pretty big role in the win.

 

Dallas did put up a lot of Yards(450+) and First downs(30+) even before we got the lead. The defense didn't win it alone.

 

I don't know about you, but when he was eating the Turkey leg, I didn't hear anyone arguing he wasn't the MVP of the game.

 

He was great against Dallas. It was his best game as a pro.

 

The issue for me is the number of other times he hasn't played well, sometimes against very poor opposition.

 

His inconsistency is what drives me insane.

[Augie]

11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

We won't know your last question for another 2 - 3 years.  It takes 4 to 5 years in total before you can really be sure if you have a franchise QB.  But everything I've seen to date is trending in the right direction.

 

But I do disagree to a point with your notion that Allen is only a game manager and is not being asked to win games only to not lose them.  As you mention in your post, Allen has led 5 game winning drives which to me means that they really do ask him, in a limited way, to win some games for them.

 

 

 

Josh has been very good in the 4th quarter, and he is far more than a game manager when considering his contribution running the ball. The first 3 quarters throwing the ball? Still a ton of room for improvement there.

 

I’ll continue to hope for progress. That would include even just a reasonable game vs the Cheaters this time. Some will hate it, but a decent game would be improvement against Belichick. Let things slow down. 

 

I like the direction of Josh and the team. Ten wins with two left to play. I’ll take it! 

[C.Biscuit97]

13 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Do you let him try over these next two games? We may need more out of him in the playoffs, would it hurt to loosen the reigns a bit?

Honestly, I would love to see them let him win the game against NE but I figure it will be super conservative. 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have never heard Josh say in a press conference "I need to get better at making quick decisions."  Can you point at a presser where this is said, and when?

 

He says I need to do a better job finding completions, or sometimes I need to take easier throws.  That's not the same thing.

Our coaches say "he needs to take what the defense gives him" sometimes.

 

The difference is the former implies he isn't making quick reads.  The latter can imply he is reading the routes in a specific order and/or giving preference to certain routes that take longer to develop.

 

 

 

I don't know, of course, but I doubt he's not seeing the field. His instinct is always to go for the bigger gain.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

He was great against Dallas. It was his best game as a pro.

 

The issue for me is the number of other times he hasn't played well, sometimes against very poor opposition.

 

His inconsistency is what drives me insane.

The old saying use to be "when you display a skill you own it". I was largely refering to those who say he hasn't shown he can carry the team when needed, he can.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

The old saying use to be "when you display a skill you own it". I was largely refering to those who say he hasn't shown he can carry the team when needed, he can.

 

When has Josh ever carried this team?

 

I genuinely can't think of a time where the Bills won because Josh Allen carried the team to victory and compensated for a bunch of things not going to plan. 

 

Maybe Minnesota last year? I can't think of a game this year. 

[whorlnut]

40 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You guys are such homers.

 

Our offense is horrible.

 

You all act like Allen is setting the world on fire.

Ummm...he’s the best QB “statistically” in the league with the game on the line. If that doesn’t count as setting the world on fire then I don’t know what does. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

When has Josh ever carried this team?

 

I genuinely can't think of a time where the Bills won because Josh Allen carried the team to victory and compensated for a bunch of things not going to plan. 

 

Maybe Minnesota last year? I can't think of a game this year. 

For crying out loud, did you watch the Dallas game?

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

For crying out loud, did you watch the Dallas game?

 

You think he carried us to a win in that game?

 

He threw for 230 yards and scored two touchdowns. Our defense and special teams were lights out. 

 

He was really good, but I think it's a stretch to say he carried the whole team unless you really want to lower the bar.

 

The whole team played great. 

 

I mean, did Baker Mayfield carry the Browns to a win over us? Of course not. 

 

Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are carrying their teams. That's the level I consider carrying a team. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by jrober38

[Stank_Nasty]

35 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think where we are at is we have a young qb who plays with a really good defense who has become a solid game manager. He has big play ability, especially with his running right now.  Allen isn’t being asked to win games but rather not lose them.  And if we keep the game close, he has shown ability to led late drives to win them, which is big. 

 

i think where some people have questions is if he is truly a franchise guy who is young and playing to his team’s strengths (ala Brady, Big Ben, Wilson) and grow with more experience. And The other side are the Bortles, Mitch T, and Sanchez (he’s better than Sanchez).  We probably won’t have an answer this year because I think the team is very comfortable with the current formula. As someone who has certainly had questions about Allen, I’m just going to enjoy the ride and hope for the best.  

this is a really fair assessment right here. 

[DuckyBoys]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

When has Josh ever carried this team?

 

I genuinely can't think of a time where the Bills won because Josh Allen carried the team to victory and compensated for a bunch of things not going to plan. 

 

Maybe Minnesota last year? I can't think of a game this year. 

 

You sure you are watching the games?  He's accounted for 27/33 tds this team has  We have one return td, the brown td pass, and 4 td runs Allen did not score.  Defense is one of the few without a score.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

You think he carried us to a win in that game?

 

He threw for 230 yards and scored two touchdowns. Our defense and special teams were lights out. 

 

He was really good, but I think it's a stretch to say he carried the whole team unless you really want to lower the bar.

 

The whole team played great. 

 

I mean, did Baker Mayfield carry the Browns to a win over us? Of course not. 

 

Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are carrying their teams. That's the level I consider carrying a team. 

I thought you didn't care about yards- had a QBR of 121 in your language, our defense was not lights out and  he looked like the best player on the field that day.

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You think he carried us to a win in that game?

 

He threw for 230 yards and scored two touchdowns. Our defense and special teams were lights out. 

 

He was really good, but I think it's a stretch to say he carried the whole team unless you really want to lower the bar.

 

The whole team played great. 

 

I mean, did Baker Mayfield carry the Browns to a win over us? Of course not. 

 

 Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are carrying their teams. That's the level I consider carrying a team. 

 

So now he has to be a HOF or MVP player? You might want to adjust your expectations. There is a lot of room between game manager and carrying a team. It will look different every week. Heck, maybe every series! He’s young and it’s too soon to tell. I just want him to keep growing and be good enough that we can keep winning. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

For crying out loud, did you watch the Dallas game?

Not trying to defend him but he did say it was his best game.  
 

I think we get a little emotional defending our players (which is reasonable).  I readily admit Allen scared me as a prospect. I’m still not completely sold but I do think he has shown he can be at worst an average starting qb in this league.  But if you watch the top guys, it does look a little different.  But the great news is we are beating who we should beat and made the playoffs without a miracle.  Allen will have plenty of chances to prove himself (though he will be kept in check from the coaches to a certain extent).  
 

I think we have taken advantage of a pretty weak schedule but we won the games we should have won.  Now, this will be really fun to see where we really match up.  I can’t remember being this truly excited as a Bills fan in a long time.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I thought you didn't care about yards- had a QBR of 121 in your language, our defense was not lights out and  he looked like the best player on the field that day.

 

The defense wasn't lights out?

 

They allowed 7 points until 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

 

What on earth are you talking about?

 

Allen played really well.

 

So did the whole damn team.

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

So now he has to be a HOF or MVP player? You might want to adjust your expectations. There is a lot of room between game manager and carrying a team. It will look different every week. Heck, maybe every series! He’s young and it’s too soon to tell. I just want him to keep growing and be good enough that we can keep winning. 

 

To me, the notion of carrying a team means you're picking up a ton of slack for other people not playing well.

 

It's a high standard I have.

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from Josh. He played great against Dallas, but so did our defense.

Edited December 18, 2019 by jrober38