Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Chicken Boo]

3 hours ago, pop gun said:

This is just wrong, so you're saying Allen for the year will have 4 good games and 12 stinkers! No way you're wrong!

 

Define a "good game".  A typical Josh Allen game is sub par by top tier QB standards.

 

The league QB rating average is about 90.  How many games does Josh have like that? 

 

I get it, he does other things and is a gamer.  If the game is close, he has the ability to "turn it on" and win the game, but if the Bills are down by 2 TDs, do you have faith that he can lead us back.  I don't.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Chicken Boo

[Chicken Boo]

18 minutes ago, section122 said:

hmmmm I like numbers and don't think yours are accurate. 

 

 

My numbers are more spitballing.  I know they're not accurate.  What I'm drawing attention to is his inconsistency.

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

So do I.

 

As I said yesterday though, only someone who completely lacks objectivity would think the defense hasn't overwhelmingly been responsible for our wins. 

 

Our offense and passing game by any metric you can look at is bottom 10 in the NFL.

 

Our defense on the other hand is truly exceptional. Them allowing under 16 points per game is the overwhelming reason we're 10-4 right now.

 

Our defense has been exceptional, but you neglect the context of our team needing to score.  And that's been the sole requirement of the offense

 

Our defense hasn't scored one TD.

 

Our Special Teams has scored one TD in garbage time against Miami.

 

I know some might dismiss TDs other than offensive TDs, but the Bills have been dead last in the NFL in defensive TDs over the last 2 years.  They've had ZERO.

 

Think the 2015 Panthers don't lose another game or 2 without their 5 defensive TDs?

 

Or the 2018 Bears without their 6 defensive TDs?

 

Or the Pats without their 7 defensive and ST TDs?

 

 

Allen has gotten this team TDs when he's needed to... whether through the air or with his legs.  He's scored 82% of this team's TDs, which is the highest percentage in the NFL.

 

Allen isn't there, yet.  But he's not a bottom tier NFL QB.  Anyone who actually watches this team objectively would understand that.  Don't say dumb things like that.

Edited December 18, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Josh started his career having to climb out of a hole, a hole that is very tough and takes a long time to clime out of, proving his doubters wrong.  The kid is further along than I could have imagined.  His stock is going up, not down.  Not everyone is willing to "buy" yet.  Increasing numbers are.  The doubters might still end up being right, but they are the minority now.  Hopefully Josh keeps improving.  I trust he will.

 

What McDermott said in the locker room holds true of Josh: Nobody can measure the Heart on this team.

 

He's got the physical abilities, he's got the smarts, he's got the heart.  As long as he keeps grinding and stays hungry, he'll be fine.

[syhuang]

7 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

He frequently takes too long to read a defense. Collinsworth said he's last in the league in time to throw. Some sites have him bottom 10 depending on how they account for things like sacks and throwaways.

 

 

NextGen Stats shows Allen's time-to-throw average time at 2.87 seconds with Russel Wilson at 2.85 seconds, Lamar Jackson at 2.91 seconds, Aaron Rodgers at 2.90 seconds, and Deshaun Watson at 2.83 seconds. Are they all slower to read defense than Devlin Hodges who is at 2.80 seconds?

 

To use a stat, we need to understand the stat first. What is the definition of time-to-throw here, it is " Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded)".

 

By this definition, one major problem pretty much everyone immediately realize is that it includes passes after scrambling, roll-out, etc. For the quarterbacks who are mobile and athletic, they can buy time when the pass rush closes in. In this case, they get penalized in the time-to-throw stat. These outliers can dramatically affect the average. 

 

In other words, using time-to-throw to indicate a QB taking too long to read a defense is misleading unless you are able to cite a time-to-throw stat which excludes these outliers.

[VW82]

35 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

NextGen Stats shows Allen's time-to-throw average time at 2.87 seconds with Russel Wilson at 2.85 seconds, Lamar Jackson at 2.91 seconds, Aaron Rodgers at 2.90 seconds, and Deshaun Watson at 2.83 seconds. Are they all slower to read defense than Devlin Hodges who is at 2.80 seconds?

 

To use a stat, we need to understand the stat first. What is the definition of time-to-throw here, it is " Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded)".

 

By this definition, one major problem pretty much everyone immediately realize is that it includes passes after scrambling, roll-out, etc. For the quarterbacks who are mobile and athletic, they can buy time when the pass rush closes in. In this case, they get penalized in the time-to-throw stat. These outliers can dramatically affect the average. 

 

In other words, using time-to-throw to indicate a QB taking too long to read a defense is misleading unless you are able to cite a time-to-throw stat which excludes these outliers.

 

Is it the perfect or only thing to cite wrt to Josh's ability to quickly make decisions and get rid of the ball? No. Like most stats there are going to be limitations. I think it provides some insight though.  

 

I also think the fact that Josh has the second highest percentage of opponent blitzes per pass attempt (44%) is a good indicator he has a hard time making quick decisions, or at least our opponents seem to think he does or they wouldn't be doing it so much. 

 

Beyond that, there's the fact that Josh has admitted it's something he needs to get better at. The coaches have alluded to it in press conferences. It seems to get brought up in almost every broadcast as a weakness as well. I'd say there's quite a bit of evidence it's one of the main areas he struggles with. 

[Dr.Sack]

Allen is most dangerous when he rolls right and is a duel threat to run or pass. Dude just needs to have better anticipation and timing. A big play was his back shoulder fade to John Brown last week. I don’t think he’s ever completed one since the pass to Benjamin vs Jax last year, but I believe that had more to do with Benjamin’s huge frame making a big boy catch. The throw to Brown was a perfectly underthrown.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

I get it, he does other things and is a gamer.  If the game is close, he has the ability to "turn it on" and win the game, but if the Bills are down by 2 TDs, do you have faith that he can lead us back.  I don't.

What if the Bills were down 16-0?  I wonder if Allen could bring us back from that sort of deficit.  

[syhuang]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Is it the perfect or only thing to cite wrt to Josh's ability to quickly make decisions and get rid of the ball? No. Like most stats there are going to be limitations. I think it provides some insight though.  

 

I also think the fact that Josh has the second highest percentage of opponent blitzes per pass attempt (44%) is a good indicator he has a hard time making quick decisions, or at least our opponents seem to think he does or they wouldn't be doing it so much. 

 

Beyond that, there's the fact that Josh has admitted it's something he needs to get better at. The coaches have alluded to it in press conferences. It seems to get brought up in almost every broadcast as a weakness as well. I'd say there's quite a bit of evidence it's one of the main areas he struggles with. 

 

Good that we get time-to-throw out of the way. Now, move to the next.

 

Being blitzed often or performing worse under blitz is your new indicator of a QB slow to read a defense? If so, Tom Brady being the 5th worst QB vs. blitz must mean he is one of the slowest to read defense. Should Allen continue to learn and be better under blitz? Definitely. But using it to indicate he is slow to read a defense comparing to other QBs, you need to show better correlation when using stats.

 

 

As for Josh saying he needs to improve in different areas in press conferences, let's just say you have a strange way to interpret it. If a young QB says he doesn't need to improve anymore in an interview, that would be really worrisome.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Beyond that, there's the fact that Josh has admitted it's something he needs to get better at. The coaches have alluded to it in press conferences. It seems to get brought up in almost every broadcast as a weakness as well. I'd say there's quite a bit of evidence it's one of the main areas he struggles with. 

 

I have never heard Josh say in a press conference "I need to get better at making quick decisions."  Can you point at a presser where this is said, and when?

 

He says I need to do a better job finding completions, or sometimes I need to take easier throws.  That's not the same thing.

Our coaches say "he needs to take what the defense gives him" sometimes.

 

The difference is the former implies he isn't making quick reads.  The latter can imply he is reading the routes in a specific order and/or giving preference to certain routes that take longer to develop.

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

4 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

Good that we get time-to-throw out of the way. Now, move to the next.

 

Being blitzed often or performing worse under blitz is your new indicator of a QB slow to read a defense? If so, Tom Brady being the 5th worst QB vs. blitz must mean he is one of the slowest to read defense. Should Allen continue to learn and be better under blitz? Definitely. But using it to indicate he is slow to read a defense comparing to other QBs, you need to show better correlation when using stats.

 

 

As for Josh saying he needs to improve in different areas in press conferences, let's just say you have a strange way to interpret it. If a young QB says he doesn't need to improve anymore in an interview, that would be really worrisome.

 

 

Drops mic ? 

[JAMIEBUF12]

I wish they would take into consideration how many drops receivers have when rating quarterbacks

 

[Pokebball]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have never heard Josh say in a press conference "I need to get better at making quick decisions."  Can you point at a presser where this is said, and when?

 

He says I need to do a better job finding completions, or sometimes I need to take easier throws.  That's not the same thing.

Our coaches say "he needs to take what the defense gives him" sometimes.

 

The difference is the former implies he isn't making quick reads.  The latter can imply he is reading the routes in a specific order and/or giving preference to certain routes that take longer to develop.

 

 

 

I've heard him say he's got to improve so to slow the game down for him.

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Our defense has been exceptional, but you neglect the context of our team needing to score.  And that's been the sole requirement of the offense

 

Our defense hasn't scored one TD.

 

Our Special Teams has scored one TD in garbage time against Miami.

 

I know some might dismiss TDs other than offensive TDs, but the Bills have been dead last in the NFL in defensive TDs over the last 2 years.  They've had ZERO.

 

Think the 2015 Panthers don't lose another game or 2 without their 5 defensive TDs?

 

Or the 2018 Bears without their 6 defensive TDs?

 

Or the Pats without their 7 defensive and ST TDs?

 

 

Allen has gotten this team TDs when he's needed to... whether through the air or with his legs.  He's scored 82% of this team's TDs, which is the highest percentage in the NFL.

 

Allen isn't there, yet.  But he's not a bottom tier NFL QB.  Anyone who actually watches this team objectively would understand that.  Don't say dumb things like that.

 

How about the 2018 Bears?

“Dumb things” are sort of jrober38’s thing...

[VW82]

44 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

Good that we get time-to-throw out of the way. Now, move to the next.

 

Being blitzed often or performing worse under blitz is your new indicator of a QB slow to read a defense? If so, Tom Brady being the 5th worst QB vs. blitz must mean he is one of the slowest to read defense. Should Allen continue to learn and be better under blitz? Definitely. But using it to indicate he is slow to read a defense comparing to other QBs, you need to show better correlation when using stats.

 

 

As for Josh saying he needs to improve in different areas in press conferences, let's just say you have a strange way to interpret it. If a young QB says he doesn't need to improve anymore in an interview, that would be really worrisome.

 

 

 

Way to misrepresent what I said to try and make a point. Brady, despite having virtually no one to throw to other than a washed up Edelman, is on the lower end of opponent blitzes per pass attempt at 32%. So even though Tom has no help and has performed relatively poorly vs. the blitz this year, teams are still afraid to do it (relative to average) unlike vs. us. What does that tell you?

 

Like TTT, or commentary on the subject from former players who called our games like Gannon and Collinsworth who say he struggles with it, or Fred Jackson who said he struggled making quick reads after the Ravens game, opponent blitzing is just another piece of imperfect evidence that points in one direction. Do you have any evidence that points in the other?  

Edited December 17, 2019 by VW82

[syhuang]

27 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Way to misrepresent what I said to try and make a point. Brady, despite having virtually no one to throw to other than a washed up Edelman, is on the lower end of opponent blitzes per pass attempt at 32%. So even though Tom has no help and has performed relatively poorly vs. the blitz this year, teams are still afraid to do it (relative to average) unlike vs. us.

 

Like TTT, or commentary on the subject from former players who called our games like Gannon and Collinsworth who say he struggles with it, or Fred Jackson who said he struggled making quick reads after the Ravens game, opponent blitzing is just another piece of imperfect evidence that points in one direction. Do you have any evidence that points in the other?  

 

Glad that we also get worse-performance-under-blitz out of the way. It looks like you only have blitz rate left. Let's move to it too.

 

Russell Wilson is currently being blitzed in 44.5% rate and Jimmy Garoppolo is at 43.6%. By you standard, these two elite quarterbacks must be slower to read defense than Devlin Hodges (35.6%) or Trubisky (25.8%), right?

 

You're entitled to have an opinion on whether Allen is slower to read a defense comparing to other quarterbacks. However, when you cite stats to attempt to support he is slower than others but fail to show the correlation between the stats and your claim, it's where the problem is.

 

Again, Allen needs to continue to improve and be better under blitz, but so far you fail to show any stats that he is slower than others in reading a defense.

Edited December 17, 2019 by syhuang

[jrober38]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

You really are clueless. To heck with your stats and metrics. You know I worry about?  Wins and losses. The fact Allen is tied with Russell Wilson for the most comebacks this season. This means he’s clutch, which no metric can put a number on. You either have it or you don’t. He has it. 

 

Of course that's all you care about.

 

That's all there is that says Josh Allen might be a good QB. 

 

His actual production and game film doesn't cooperate with what you want to be true. 

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Allen has a passer rating of 114 in the 4th Quarter and 118.2 in the 4th quarter when the game is within 7.

 

Do you care about Wins?

 

Wins are a team stat.

 

I like that the Bills are winning. I think our QB has contributed very little to us winning that most NFL QBs couldn't replicate or improve upon. 

 

I think there are at least 20 NFL QBs who would have allowed this team to go at least 10-4 so far. 

[VW82]

28 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

Glad that we also get worse-performance-under-blitz out of the way. It looks like you only have blitz rate left. Let's move to it too.

 

Russell Wilson is currently being blitzed in 44.5% rate and Jimmy Garoppolo is at 43.6%. By you standard, these two elite quarterbacks must be slower to read defense than Devlin Hodges (35.6%) or Trubisky (25.8%), right?

 

You're entitled to have an opinion on whether Allen is slower to read a defense comparing to other quarterbacks. However, when you cite stats to attempt to support he is slower than others but fail to show the correlation between the stats and your claim, it's where the problem is.

 

Again, Allen needs to continue to improve and be better under blitz, but so far you fail to show any stats that he is slower than others in reading a defense.

I say “look at blitz rate as a way to see if defenses respect Josh’s ability to make quick decisions.”

 

You say “here’s how everyone performed vs the blitz!”

 

I say “no just look at blitz rate. Their intent is more meaningful.”

 

You say “glad we can move on from how guys did vs the blitz.”

 

Nice straw man.

 

Also, why are you continually bringing up Hodges when he’s played four games? That’s just as bad as the PFF tweet. 
 

BTW, as someone who lives on the west coast and frequently goes to Seahawks games I can tell you that one of the knocks on Wilson for years has been his ability to make quick decisions. 
 

You’re never going to find a stat that shows definitively what you’re asking me to show. There are too many parts and pieces which is why you have to look at a bunch of different things, quantitative and qualitative, and piece it together which is what I tried to do. I asked you to provide some evidence (any evidence) to the contrary. The lack of evidence that he makes quick decisions is just further proof that he doesn’t.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by VW82

[Penfield45]

7 hours ago, dakrider said:

Allens completion % would probably be 4-5% better right now if the Bills could ever figure out how to run a screen play! 

 

exactly. Daboll is so out of his depth at OC. he just has no idea how to make the game simple for his young QB. 

 

get someone like Jay Gruden in here and watch Allen flourish under him. you see QB's around the league padding their stats with 10 screen passes per game.