Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Sundancer]

Passing will be tough this week. Brown will be shut down. Beasley probably too. Which will leave the TEs and RBs to carry the load on passing plays, and that's not a great formula for this team so far this season. Activating Yeldon makes sense. His best game was against the Pats I believe. Or at least I feel like in the 2nd half, he was the key to what little offense there was. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Sundancer

[syhuang]

Instead of looking at the traditional completion percentage, which is affected by receiver's ability, pass block, opponent's pass rush, etc, NFL NextGen stats has a relatively new stat, Expected Completion Percentage. Before introducing it, I want to emphasize there is no perfect stat, and there will never be one.

 

Expected Completion Percentage uses machine learning and takes much more factors into account to evaluate quarterback's passes, including  pass air distance (from quarterback to receiver), air yards, the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender, the distance between the quarterback and the nearest pass rusher, and the speed of the quarterback at throw, and so on. Basically you can think this stat tries to evaluate the possibility of a pass being completed.

 

If you're interested in how it works, the following is a good description. The Expected Completion Percentage stat can be found in https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#expectedCompletionPercentage. As we can see, Josh's expected completion percentage is 3.3% higher than the actual completion percentage. It means that his passes are expected to have a 62.6% completion but only 59.3% of his passes are actually caught. Or if we look at Tannehill whose expected completion percentage is 62.9% but his receivers do a good job and catch passes normally not expected to be caught, which increases Tannehill's comp% to 71.5%. By plain comp%, Tannehill is significantly higher than Allen, 71.5% vs. 59.3%. But by expected completion percentage, they are quite close, 62.9% vs. 62.6%.

 

Again, the Expected Completion Percentage isn't a be-all-end-all stat, no stat is. Furthermore, Allen is in the bottom 3rd in Expected Completion Percentage and, as everyone know, needs to continue to grow. On the other hand, people need to realize that the traditional comp% is really outdated and doesn't tell close to the whole story.

 

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Next Gen Stats introduction to Completion Probability

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000967238/article/next-gen-stats-intro-to-completion-probability-part-ii

 

How The Completion Probability Model Works

With the help of machine learning based models leveraging Amazon Web Services' Sagemaker platform, Completion Probability is measured using more than 10 different in-play factors collected by Next Gen Stats player-tracking devices. Those inputs include pass air distance (from quarterback to receiver), air yards, the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender, the distance between the quarterback and the nearest pass rusher, the speed of the quarterback at throw, among several other metrics.

Each in-play factor in the Completion Probability model has a direct relationship with the likelihood a pass is complete or incomplete. We can evaluate these relationships by plotting each in-play factor against Actual Completion Percentage to better understand each factor's effect on the outcome of a play...

 

 

 

1. Air Distance: As distance between the quarterback at the time of the throw to the location of the receiver at the time of the catch increases, the likelihood of a completion decreases. Passes traveling more than 40 air distance yards have roughly a 20% chance of completion, while passes traveling 10 air distance yards have a roughly 80% chance of completion.

2. Target Separation: As the distance between the receiver and nearest defender increases, the likelihood of a completion also increases. The thickness of the each data point of the plot shows the density of passes for each level of target separation which suggests the majority of passes come with less than 4 yards of target separation.

3. Sideline Separation: As the distance between the receiver and the sideline decreases, the likelihood of a completion also decreases. The probability of a completed pass decreases rapidly at 5 yards of sideline separation. Controlling for all other factors, passes to the sideline just inside the white paint have a roughly 30% chance of completion.

4. Pass Rush Separation: As the distance between the quarterback and nearest pass rusher at the time of the throw decreases, the likelihood of a completion also decreases. A quarterback throwing with no defenders around has a higher probability of a completed pass compared to a quarterback with a pass rusher within a few yards at the time for the throw.

5. Passer Speed: As the speed of the quarterback at the time of the throw increases, the likelihood of a completed pass decreases. Speed below 8 MPH has little effect on the probability of a completion, however, as the speed of the quarterback increases above 8 MPH, the chance of completion decreases dramatically.

6. Time to Throw: As the duration of time increases from snap to throw, the likelihood of a completed pass decreases. Most passes occur between 2 and 3 seconds after the snap, and the probability of a completion declines significantly after 3 seconds.

 

The model uses in-play data points collected by Next Gen Stats player tracking technology on over 36,000 pass attempts dating back to the 2016 season and was validated against a random sampling of 10% of the pass attempts. Using only data not included in the model, we find the relationship between the Actual Completion Percentage and Completion Probability is strong, with an r-squared value of 0.98. For reference, "0" represents no correlation while a value close to "1" represents a perfect correlation.

 

 

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Edited December 17, 2019 by syhuang

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

No, I'm saying if you have a great defense and a QB who is bottom 10 in practically every passing category, they deserve little credit.

 

I think Josh is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL right now. If that continues for another year or two we should be looking for someone new. Hopefully he improves and ranks in the top half of the league next year. 

 

Where do you think he should rank? Top half? Top 10?

You really are clueless. To heck with your stats and metrics. You know I worry about?  Wins and losses. The fact Allen is tied with Russell Wilson for the most comebacks this season. This means he’s clutch, which no metric can put a number on. You either have it or you don’t. He has it. 

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Even if it were true, it’s a drop in the bucket.

 

I have the Bills at 20 dropped passes on the year, tied for second in the NFL with the Pats. 

 

That’s 4.4% of our passes this year. If we dropped it to league average of 15, that’d be 3.3%. Hardly a stark change.

 

What you're neglecting is the impact 5 passes has on completion % alone.

 

If this team were just average in the league, Allen's completion % is just under 61%.  That might not be good enough long term--though with Allen, it might be--but it's nearly a 10% improvement over a rookie year where people complained he was just awful in terms of accuracy.

 

In my dream world, Knox puts in a ton of work this offseason the way Tony Gonzales did after his rookie year when he had issues with drops and becomes the reliable and consistent target Allen needs.  Hell, if Knox can learn to catch the damn football, the Allen to Knox connection could be one of the most potent combinations in the NFL for the next decade +.  But he needs to learn to consistently catch the ball.

 

The rest of our WRs just need to grow a couple inches  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Still want to see Allen win a game where the defense isn’t able to keep the opponent under 20 points, but while it wasn’t pretty at times, he made big plays at clutch times.  I think if the offense was more consistent we won’t need the comebacks in the first place but he has shown a knack for it so I tip my hat to him.

 

You mean, like the 1st Miami game this year?

Or the Jax game last year?

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You mean, like the 1st Miami game this year?

Or the Jax game last year?

Better yet, ask him what Lamar Jackson's line looked like against the Steelers. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, GG said:

 

How much of that do you place on Daboll?  Remember that was the scene of the infamous sideline eruption between the OC and QB.  I'm inclined to believe that whatever the plan was, the QB wasn't on the same page.

 

I dunno about famous, but the incident we saw on film was clearly after Josh threw a pick that was a foolish decision.  Daboll came after him pointing to his forehead like "think."  I don't think it's a sign the QB and coach weren't on the same page, just that Josh made a bonehead decision.

 

It's a fact that sometimes Josh leaves easier plays on the field in favor of harder, more difficult completions but I don't know how the reads are designed.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Take another look at the replay.   The opening two drives had designed short routes where Allen misfired badly.    There were only a handful of plays in the half where the design didn't give Allen a short outlet or the short route wasn't the primary option.  That first half was mostly on Allen, not Daboll.

 

Allen misfired less than people think on those plays.  A lot of those balls were being batted or just tipped at the line, a problem he had on a few balls Sunday night as well.

 

After the Pats game, the press portion of practice showed them working on drills with Allen where he had to throw through a forest of hands with a large ball being rolled at his feet.  I think that would be a helpful drill for them to return to this week.  It's attacking both problems - the need to thread through linemen, AND the need to maintain proper footwork in a muddled pocket.

 

 

[GG]

58 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Oh Allen was brutal.

 

I was speaking more to the lack of designed targets to backs and TEs. I'm saying that the scripted plays should be designed to go to them since we have a matchup advantage there (along with McKenzie in 11 sets).

 

Maybe we're arguing the targets?  To me, a short pattern by BeaSley is the same as the TE or RB target, and Daboll dialed up a bunch of those plays where Allen ignored the open looks or simply misfired in the first half.  He finally calmed down on the last drive of the half to see the short stuff, and the offense started to move.

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen misfired less than people think on those plays.  A lot of those balls were being batted or just tipped at the line, a problem he had on a few balls Sunday night as well.

 

After the Pats game, the press portion of practice showed them working on drills with Allen where he had to throw through a forest of hands with a large ball being rolled at his feet.  I think that would be a helpful drill for them to return to this week.  It's attacking both problems - the need to thread through linemen, AND the need to maintain proper footwork in a muddled pocket.

 

 

 

I just did a quick look back of the 1st half All-22 from that game.  There were a few tips, but misfires and wrong reads were the primary culprits in the half.   

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, pop gun said:

You could add to this the Bills lead the league, or maybe 2nd after this past week in dropped passes.  

 

Good point...they are 2nd (by I think one drop below the top spot) and will add that now as an edit.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Seriously? I didn't know that. You think he was indirectly defending his investment?

 

The PFF/Duck stuff was funny but I'm surprised it got taken so seriously, and I'm a supporter of the PFF product despite it's faults. But that was a horrible take re Allen/Duck. Even my buddies who routinely give me a hard time about Allen wouldn't go that far. 

 

I enjoyed the SNF broadcast. Despite the fact we played a "national" team, it felt pretty even. They gushed about our defense. At least we didn't have to endure five straight BS calls to start the game like Thanksgiving. 

 

See, if this is the "even" you're talking about, you've missed the last 18 months.

 

Since the draft process, there has been a national narrative on Allen that he is wildly inaccurate and that he's too raw to really win with right now.  

 

His completion % and the team's record confirmed that for most of the nation (and some on this message board) just last year.  

 

This year, the team is winning.  We have one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the NFL.  So that's what everyone points to.

 

But an objective observer would have to at least acknowledge that Allen has drastically improved over last year and has been successfully operating an extremely conservative offensive gameplan that relies heavily on the defense, but has also (pretty frequently, actually) needed Allen to go out and make critical plays at critical times in the game in order to get the W.  Josh Allen is currently tied with Russell Wilson at #1 for both 4th Quarter Comebacks AND Game Winning Drives.  He's also converted 3rd and Long at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL... remember that the TD to Kroft the other day was on a 3rd and 9.

 

Allen is doing great things pretty consistently at times the team needs him to rise to the occasion.  It does get a little frustrating when you're listening to our first national broadcast on SNF in over a decade and they don't talk about your QB when he does that in the same manner you hear them on a weekly basis talking about other QBs when they make these plays.  Hell, with other QBs like Mahomes, I guarantee Collinsworth would have spent a few minutes just going back to that little 8 yard pass Allen made to Beasely where Allen made just an unreal throw across his body that took crazy arm strength.

 

But it was Allen, so what they focus on instead is ONE really bad pass Allen makes out of 25 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

 

You're wrong

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Or ignore other things that directly lead to wins like game winning drives and level of play in crunch time(4th quarter passer rating)... he leads in the first Category mentioned there and is 3rd in the other, BTW. 
 

 

I guess we don’t quite get it. Maybe scoring td’s doesn’t  matter as much anymore? Like we’ve both mentioned earlier. He’s better than all but 5 players at that. 

 

Josh is also 2nd in the league at converting 3 and 8+ yards for first downs.... as a passer.  That has to count for something.  But hey, he is the worst QB in the NFL according to jrober so ***** who is avail in the draft next year?  Can we trade for Cam or sumthin?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

I just did a quick look back of the 1st half All-22 from that game.  There were a few tips, but misfires and wrong reads were the primary culprits in the half.   

 

You can't see some of them with a quick look.  On the All-22 which doesn't show all angles you have to really grind.

 

I had my apotheosis watching a Chiefs game where Mahomes appeared to mis-fire and miss his receiver by several feet.

The announcers suggested "maybe it was tipped" and their producer found a view where you could just see the ball bending the finger of a lineman's gloved fingertip.

They then pronounced "you just don't see Mahomes being that inaccurate unless there's something like that going on"

 

So I went back and re-watched, and sure enough found a few more tips at the start of the NE game.

 

I'm not trying to say there weren't misses and wrong reads going on too, there were.  But I realized at that point that the old saw "let a man once get a reputation as an early riser, and he may sleep until noon" does apply to QB at times.

 

In the end, doesn't matter, they weren't completions.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

this is why this thread has run its course

 

 

Josh Allen % Comp  59.3
Tom Brady % Comp  60.1
Aaron Rodgers % Comp  63.33

 

All Double Digit WINNERS 

[GG]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

In the end, doesn't matter, they weren't completions.

 

 

There's a reason that game led to a drastic refocus of the offense.

[Pokebball]

24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're wrong

Josh started his career having to climb out of a hole, a hole that is very tough and takes a long time to clime out of, proving his doubters wrong.  The kid is further along than I could have imagined.  His stock is going up, not down.  Not everyone is willing to "buy" yet.  Increasing numbers are.  The doubters might still end up being right, but they are the minority now.  Hopefully Josh keeps improving.  I trust he will.

[VW82]

39 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

See, if this is the "even" you're talking about, you've missed the last 18 months.

 

Since the draft process, there has been a national narrative on Allen that he is wildly inaccurate and that he's too raw to really win with right now.  

 

His completion % and the team's record confirmed that for most of the nation (and some on this message board) just last year.  

 

This year, the team is winning.  We have one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the NFL.  So that's what everyone points to.

 

But an objective observer would have to at least acknowledge that Allen has drastically improved over last year and has been successfully operating an extremely conservative offensive gameplan that relies heavily on the defense, but has also (pretty frequently, actually) needed Allen to go out and make critical plays at critical times in the game in order to get the W.  Josh Allen is currently tied with Russell Wilson at #1 for both 4th Quarter Comebacks AND Game Winning Drives.  He's also converted 3rd and Long at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL... remember that the TD to Kroft the other day was on a 3rd and 9.

 

Allen is doing great things pretty consistently at times the team needs him to rise to the occasion.  It does get a little frustrating when you're listening to our first national broadcast on SNF in over a decade and they don't talk about your QB when he does that in the same manner you hear them on a weekly basis talking about other QBs when they make these plays.  Hell, with other QBs like Mahomes, I guarantee Collinsworth would have spent a few minutes just going back to that little 8 yard pass Allen made to Beasely where Allen made just an unreal throw across his body that took crazy arm strength.

 

But it was Allen, so what they focus on instead is ONE really bad pass Allen makes out of 25 

 

Here's the thing: I think many of the narratives surrounding Josh have been correct.

 

He was extremely raw coming into the league, and too raw to win with last year. 

 

He did have a tendency to make poor throws at a rate well above other QBs. You're saying 1 out of 25. Last year it was 1 in 4 according to pro football reference. The next closest guy was Rosen at 1 in 5. Average was around 16-17%. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing_advanced.htm

 

He frequently takes too long to read a defense. Collinsworth said he's last in the league in time to throw. Some sites have him bottom 10 depending on how they account for things like sacks and throwaways.

 

He is improving. The national media types for the most part are acknowledging this. They're saying the same stuff you're saying e.g. 4th quarter comebacks, GWDs, timely throws, makes plays with his feet, etc. I feel like some posters on here bend over backwards to find the most negative view that still exists and latch onto that in some kind of weird inferiority complex. IMO very few NFL media, fans, etc., still think he outright sucks. They think he's about what the numbers say he is: a second year player who's getting better but not quite there yet, clutch player, someone you can win with on the right team, etc. 

 

As for the SNF broadcast, I thought they called the game based on the way it was played. Josh was unfortunately a little inaccurate on some throws (some more than others) and our receivers did everything they could to make those throws look worse than they were. Why are we expecting Michaels and Collinsworth to gush about 139 yards passing, a pick, drops, and some sloppy ball protection? Josh is a second year player who's still figuring it out. He hasn't earned that praise yet. You mention Mahomes. That guy won MVP. He gets the accolades because his team wins games of the back of his huge production. We win games in large part because of the strength of our defense, and so that's what they focused on.      

Edited December 17, 2019 by VW82

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't care about raw yards.

 

I care about averages and QB Rating. 

 

Allen has a passer rating of 114 in the 4th Quarter and 118.2 in the 4th quarter when the game is within 7.

 

Do you care about Wins?

[section122]

3 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

hmmmm I like numbers and don't think yours are accurate.  Here is what I found:

 

JAcoby Brisset is 16th in the league at 90.1 for Qb rating so using that as a bench mark, Josh has 7 games above that and 7 below.  He doesn't have a 3 game stretch of bad anywhere this year although he could if he plays poorly this week.  He has had 2 tough games in a row against 2 top 10 defenses which shouldn't be surprising.

 

I found a neat little stat here that shows QB Rating against

 

Josh has performed above the league average against Dallas, Denver, Miami, Miami, Washington, Tennessee, and the NYG.  Again 7 games.  

 

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

 

The list of Qbs backed by a strong defense at the start of their careers is long.  Russel Wilson which you didn't like so how about Ben Roethlisberger?  Or *gasp* Tom Brady (less than 7ypa and less than 90 qb rating each of his first 3 years starting)?  Why not choose them?