Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The Allen and Wilson comparison isn't even remotely accurate.

 

Wilson is one of the most efficient QBs in NFL history, and has been since he first entered the league.

 

Josh Allen has a career QB rating of 77.5.

 

And again, how is Allen vs Sanchez remotely accurate? Allen has more intangibles and athletic ability than Sanchez could ever hope for. 

 

Both Sanchez and Wilson  are fair comparisons because of their similar situations being backed up by great defenses early in their careers. 

 

But if you are arguing that Wilson's QB rating >>>>Allen's then I counter with Allen's athletic ability >>>> Sanchez's so should we just toss both out and say neither is fair?

 

On top of that, as a starting QB for the Jets Sanchez never finished a season with a QB rating above 80 points. His best season 78.2, his 3rd season as a full time starting QB. His ratings his first two seasons were 63 and 75 respectively. Depending on these final two games Allen will probably finish above 80 for his second year. So compared to Sanchez he is already a better QB by the traditional definition of one plus throw in the mobility and rushing and he becomes quite a bit better than Sanchez.

 

And you could argue Sanchez had a nice head start playing in the Pac12. Samethin for Russel Wislon playing a season in the Big 10. Allen came from Wyoming and did not have the same level of competition to get him ready every week. I love where Allen is trending. I'm guessing you see it differently. 

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Are you saying that I picked this stat to support more narrative, because that is completely not the case. I was told that all the metrics said JA ranked it the bottom tier (his QBR is in the mid 20s somewhere), and that was what mattered.

No I’m just making a general observation. Wasn’t trying to single you out specifically.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Bangarang

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Well since NFL teams are moving towards the type of QB that colleges are now producing and not that, you will be wrong!

 

This post needs to be revisited at a later date.

 

We are thinking the same.  See my post above!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

We are thinking the same.  See my post above!

Big discussion on the NFL network about this very subject today. A few years ago it was that the NFL had a dearth of good QBS and the colleges were moving away from the traditional pocket passer. What were they going to do? Well with guys like Lamar, Patrick, DeShaun and hopefully Josh we are seeing the answer.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No silly, we need to ignore wins and him ranking 6th among QBs in total TDs and focus on yards and passer rating because reasons.

 

Lol.  Get him bandit

 

I dont give a damn about stats...I care about wins.  Here is what I know about Allen.  He leads NFL in 4th quarter comeback wins since 2018, and thats with missing 6 games (missing 4 games outright, and getting knocked out of 2 more games where he was driving us to put us ahead late in games (HOU last year and NE this year).  He is one of the highest rated QB's in the 4th quarter overall.   Bills are also 3rd in the NFL in Redzone efficiency, including 10th in the NFL in Redzone TD scoring %, and Allen is a big big part of that with his ability to punch it in himself.  He is also the best QB in the NFL on 3rd and long conversions.

 

This kid is a gamer.  Fact.  

 

Now lets look at other factors around him...

• His top 3 WR's average 5'10" and 180 pounds, including two being 5'9"
• We are 2nd in the NFL in dropped passes, just one behind the top spot too
• His OC has been inconsistent all year, and down right terrible at times while also finding moments of greatness
• He has 9 new starters on the offense around him with only Dion being lone hold over starter
• He still just has basically a season and a half of starts under his belt from missing some games.
• He has a FA TE that missed most the season he has little time playing with and a raw rookie TE who seems to make the hard catch but drops too many critical easy ones
• We have a Kicker and ST unit that has literally lost us 2 of our games this year (CLE and NE) and did its best to try and lose us a couple others

Bonus fact:  Allen has the most TD's behind only Lamar since the NE game, with 21 TDs and 4 turnovers in that span...despite the challenges above

 

So for me, its utterly absurd for anyone to be freaking out about Josh right now from a negative stand point.  He has clearly taken some big steps this year, has proven to be at his best with the game on the line over and over again, and doesn't let struggles affect him.  

 

Having a full season with playoff experience (and possibly even playoff success) under his belt entering an offseason where Beane has $90M in cap room and some extra draft capital to address the need for more playmakers for Allen is OVER THE TOP EXCITING for our future regardless to how the rest of the season plays out.  

 

Allen is not even close to being done growing and improving yet, and neither is this team.  GO BILLS!!!  

Edited December 17, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Stank_Nasty]

19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No silly, we need to ignore wins and him ranking 6th among QBs in total TDs and focus on yards and passer rating because reasons.

Or ignore other things that directly lead to wins like game winning drives and level of play in crunch time(4th quarter passer rating)... he leads in the first Category mentioned there and is 3rd in the other, BTW. 
 

 

I guess we don’t quite get it. Maybe scoring td’s doesn’t  matter as much anymore? Like we’ve both mentioned earlier. He’s better than all but 5 players at that. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

ELO? Everyone seems to be making up their own system these days.

 

Its funny though, when Tyrod was here, a lot of people used to love quoting ESPN’s QBR metric because he usually ranked pretty high there. Same with the regular NFL QB rating.

 

Now with Allen, those ratings are unreliable and controversial so we go with things like ELO where it looks like Allen is ranked higher. Admittedly though I’m not familiar with ELO or who created it.

It's a chess formula, predictive and self-correcting, for calculating relative skill over a given number of zero-sum game outcomes.  It was modified by 538 as the basis for their NFL picks, team/player rankings, betting odds etc...it's fairly simple, performs well with respect to results, and best of all it ISN'T 'PROPRIETARY' so you can actually see the nuts and bolts for yourself.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Bonus fact:  Allen has the most TD's behind only Lamar since the NE game, with 21 TDs and 4 turnovers in that span...despite the challenges above

 

Normal for any bottom 10 qb...... ?

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Big discussion on the NFL network about this very subject today. A few years ago it was that the NFL had a dearth of good QBS and the colleges were moving away from the traditional pocket passer. What were they going to do? Well with guys like Lamar, Patrick, DeShaun and hopefully Josh we are seeing the answer.

 

I missed that and will try to catch a replay.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

There is enough blame in that 1st NE game for both Allen and Daboll. Why they thought it was a good idea to attack the strength of the NE defense with longer developing pass plays and deep throws is beyond me. Allen's strength is the LOS - 20 yds range and if there is a way to attack the NE defense, it is in that range utilizing TEs and RBs as well as the WRs. 

 

The only time Allen did not struggle in that game was the first drive of the third quarter. They ran the no huddle, with quicker developing plays and shorter throws. Allen went 5-5 and they scored a touchdown. He also utilized the RBs coming out of the backfield and the two biggest plays of the drive were throws to Yeldon. 

 

They then went back to the previous game plan with longer developing plays and deeper throws - and, surprise, he struggled again.

 

So to me, the Pats****(did I put enough?) game is an example of Daboll getting more into X's and O's than Jimmies and Joes.  First off, though, the NE**** defense: it's a strong D all over, and you can't look at it simplistically like "strength = long pass plays".  Belicheck*****(did I put enough?) is like Wink Martindale in that he will custom-brew a special sauce for each new customer.

 

In our case, the special sauce he brewed was to bring heavy pressure to shut down the run/confusing coverage to make Allen uncertain about who was open and bait him into throwing deep.  Allen was still in "Gunslinger mode" at that point and given a tight window he thought he could make or a deep throw that looked open vs a shorter throw where he was uncertain of the coverage, *bam*.

 

Now, combine that with Daboll, who looks at his X's and O's and says "the most straightforward way to beat a team that is stacking the box and taking away the run is to throw deep on them, so let's dial up some deep throws".   Allen and Daboll have said the deep throw wasn't a focus of their work this summer, but I'm going to make a guess based on how they have both reacted and say Allen is not having significant trouble hitting those throws in practice.  Maybe he misses 1 out of 4 or something like that.  Daboll gets out his pocket calculator and says "that's less than 2% odds that he'll miss 3 in a row".  Except that the misses in games aren't independent events, they're the result of pressure causing Allen to revert in technique and also quite probably defense slowing the WRs and forcing them off their route.

 

There are usually multiple solutions to a problem, so let's hope that Daboll will find a variety and dial them up earlier.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I missed that and will try to catch a replay.

NFL Radio I misspoke

[Sundancer]

53 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's not as hard to win in the NFL when you only need to average 17 points a week because your defense is so good.

 

The defense is the reason we're 10-4 right now. #3 in yards and #2 in points. 

 

 

Of course. But they are running a ball control offense because of the good defense. That's smart coaching. 

 

Now I don't know if Allen could run the Air Raid offense but if he was, they'd be scoring more 100%, and the defense would be under a lot more pressure due to more turnovers and losing time of possession a lot more. 

 

The Bills PPG and offense is clearly not as good as the defense, but the offense is only being asked to do so much. You can't judge them in vacuums to one another. McD's game plan all season has been to have the defense hold and make sure the offense doesn't make mistakes. That's been a winning formula for a team with 2 returning offensive starters from last year. Works for me at 10-4.

[Stank_Nasty]

30 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

For those of you who rely on the NFL Passer Rating system for your QB success ratings, take the time to read this. Also, don't bother saying I'm calling it the be all end all- Its not! It is an improvement in that it tries to provide some additional context and doesn't rely on team context only like QBR. Out

I’m surprised you say he works out in the 11-16 range of their rankings because I just read some of their material leading up to the pats game this week and they were absolutely BRUTAL on Allen. Completely over the top. One guy saying they’d be better off putting josh at wr and another saying they’d be better off literally not letting him throw and just run for 80 yds a game. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The Allen and Wilson comparison isn't even remotely accurate.

 

Wilson is one of the most efficient QBs in NFL history, and has been since he first entered the league.

 

Josh Allen has a career QB rating of 77.5.

 

We need to draft a TE in the first.  Knox is dropping 20% of his targets.

[GoBills808]

38 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The most popular one is wins.

 

He's winning, and that's good, so just ignore all the data that says he's a bottom tier QB. 

If you are trying to conflate ELO with QBR and DVOA/DYAR you don't really have a claim to good data. 

 

One is a simple formula, the others are subjective pseudo-statistics. Entirely different concepts.

[GG]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Based upon the route concepts, a whole lot of it is on Daboll. The sideline spat appeared to be more about Allen's hero-ball than anything else.

 

Take another look at the replay.   The opening two drives had designed short routes where Allen misfired badly.    There were only a handful of plays in the half where the design didn't give Allen a short outlet or the short route wasn't the primary option.  That first half was mostly on Allen, not Daboll.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

 One guy saying they’d be better off putting josh at wr and another saying they’d be better off literally not letting him throw and just run for 80 yds a game. 

 

Funny how someone can take that stance when our defense hasn't scored a single point this year and our only special teams score was off of a onside kick with the game already decided against Miami. They do realize we would be 0-14 in that case or maybe 2-12 with a couple victories via FG's? Our defense is good but we are not the Patriots good. Our defense and special teams is not scoring at a ridiculous pace.

[Big Gun]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol.  Get him bandit

 

I dont give a damn about stats...I care about wins.  Here is what I know about Allen.  He leads NFL in 4th quarter comeback wins since 2018, and thats with missing 6 games (missing 4 games outright, and getting knocked out of 2 more games where he was driving us to put us ahead late in games (HOU last year and NE this year).  He is one of the highest rated QB's in the 4th quarter overall.   Bills are also 3rd in the NFL in Redzone efficiency, including 10th in the NFL in Redzone TD scoring %, and Allen is a big big part of that with his ability to punch it in himself.  He is also the best QB in the NFL on 3rd and long conversions.

 

This kid is a gamer.  Fact.  

 

Now lets look at other factors around him...

• His top 3 WR's average 5'10" and 180 pounds, including two being 5'9"
• His OC has been inconsistent all year, and down right terrible at times while also finding moments of greatness
• He has 9 new starters on the offense around him with only Dion being lone hold over starter
• He still just has basically a season and a half of starts under his belt from missing some games.
• He has a FA TE that missed most the season he has little time playing with and a raw rookie TE who seems to make the hard catch but drops too many critical easy ones
• We have a Kicker and ST unit that has literally lost us 2 of our games this year (CLE and NE) and did its best to try and lose us a couple others

Bonus fact:  Allen has the most TD's behind only Lamar since the NE game, with 21 TDs and 4 turnovers in that span...despite the challenges above

 

So for me, its utterly absurd for anyone to be freaking out about Josh right now from a negative stand point.  He has clearly taken some big steps this year, has proven to be at his best with the game on the line over and over again, and doesn't let struggles affect him.  

 

Having a full season with playoff experience (and possibly even playoff success) under his belt entering an offseason where Beane has $90M in cap room and some extra draft capital to address the need for more playmakers for Allen is OVER THE TOP EXCITING for our future regardless to how the rest of the season plays out.  

 

Allen is not even close to being done growing and improving yet, and neither is this team.  GO BILLS!!!  

You could add to this the Bills lead the league, or maybe 2nd after this past week in dropped passes.  

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Take another look at the replay.   The opening two drives had designed short routes where Allen misfired badly.    There were only a handful of plays in the half where the design didn't give Allen a short outlet or the short route wasn't the primary option.  That first half was mostly on Allen, not Daboll.

 

Oh Allen was brutal.

 

I was speaking more to the lack of designed targets to backs and TEs. I'm saying that the scripted plays should be designed to go to them since we have a matchup advantage there (along with McKenzie in 11 sets).

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So to me, the Pats****(did I put enough?) game is an example of Daboll getting more into X's and O's than Jimmies and Joes.  First off, though, the NE**** defense: it's a strong D all over, and you can't look at it simplistically like "strength = long pass plays".  Belicheck*****(did I put enough?) is like Wink Martindale in that he will custom-brew a special sauce for each new customer.

 

In our case, the special sauce he brewed was to bring heavy pressure to shut down the run/confusing coverage to make Allen uncertain about who was open and bait him into throwing deep.  Allen was still in "Gunslinger mode" at that point and given a tight window he thought he could make or a deep throw that looked open vs a shorter throw where he was uncertain of the coverage, *bam*.

 

Now, combine that with Daboll, who looks at his X's and O's and says "the most straightforward way to beat a team that is stacking the box and taking away the run is to throw deep on them, so let's dial up some deep throws".   Allen and Daboll have said the deep throw wasn't a focus of their work this summer, but I'm going to make a guess based on how they have both reacted and say Allen is not having significant trouble hitting those throws in practice.  Maybe he misses 1 out of 4 or something like that.  Daboll gets out his pocket calculator and says "that's less than 2% odds that he'll miss 3 in a row".  Except that the misses in games aren't independent events, they're the result of pressure causing Allen to revert in technique and also quite probably defense slowing the WRs and forcing them off their route.

 

There are usually multiple solutions to a problem, so let's hope that Daboll will find a variety and dial them up earlier.

 

 

 

Not necessarily disagreeing with you. New England***** does have a strong D overall. However, they are exceptionally good when teams try to set up and go deep on them. In that game, they were stacking the line and bringing pressure. They also did well in confusing Allen at the line. The OL did not do well with the pressure and Allen had little time to setup and deliver a pass. The problem was compounded by (1) deeper developing plays and/or little separation by receivers on shorter routes. There were a number of plays where Allen was either scrambling for his life or standing in the pocket as pressure closed in on him and, literally, had nobody giving him a target. I saw receivers getting open during that game; but, most of the time Allen already had to scramble, had been sacked, or had thrown the ball away. When he did have the time to go deep, it was a disaster.

 

We saw it in that game, the Baltimore game, and the Pittsburgh game. The offensive line and Allen struggled with pressure. In particular, I think if Allen gets pressure on him early, he reverts to his old ways of not trusting his line and his mecahanics start to break down. That's the way it was for him at Wyoming, last year with the Bills, and to a certain degree, in those games this year cited above. I believe he is getting better; however, old habits die hard.

 

I think when they go to the no huddle, it becomes harder to disguise the defense play after play with the same personnel - even for Belichick*****, Allen plays more instinctively (not overthinking things), leading to quicker (and better) decisions, and he tends to run quicker developing plays. And, when he gets in a rhythm, his confidence and comfortability increase - leading to better mechanics.

 

I am not trying to over simplify what they need to do. But, I do believe, in game situations, the deep ball and longer developing plays, are not strengths this year for Allen or the Oline - particularly with pressure. I'm not sure what the answer is against NE*****; but, I do think it lies with involving the TEs and RBs more, and sticking with the things that have been strengths for Allen.

 

Here's hoping they figure it out.