Bangarang Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: Well there is a ranking system (ELO) that attempts to put a bit of context to it and he's been generally in the 11-16 range. You have stated that you think he's in the 26-30 or bottom tier. I find that absurd. ELO? Everyone seems to be making up their own system these days. Its funny though, when Tyrod was here, a lot of people used to love quoting ESPN’s QBR metric because he usually ranked pretty high there. Same with the regular NFL QB rating. Now with Allen, those ratings are unreliable and controversial so we go with things like ELO where it looks like Allen is ranked higher. Admittedly though I’m not familiar with ELO or who created it. Edited December 17, 2019 by Bangarang 1
billsfan1959 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I do believe that Belicheck****** (did I miscount) was in Daboll's head, but I'm not sure it was tendencies. Their D managed to confuse and bemuse Josh. They batted and tipped balls, they confused him about coverage, they baited him into throwing picks. That was the first of the games where Daboll tried to win the game with Josh's arm and it went badly (this is where I say Belicheck******(did I miscount) was in Daboll's head). To his credit, Josh cites that game as a turning point where he realized he had to prepare differently, think about the game differently, and just be better overall. The first Pats game was the 1st prelim. Josh performed 2 SD below class average. He's been studying hard. Now we come to the 2nd prelim and the chance for Josh to show what he's learned. There is enough blame in that 1st NE game for both Allen and Daboll. Why they thought it was a good idea to attack the strength of the NE defense with longer developing pass plays and deep throws is beyond me. Allen's strength is the LOS - 20 yds range and if there is a way to attack the NE defense, it is in that range utilizing TEs and RBs as well as the WRs. The only time Allen did not struggle in that game was the first drive of the third quarter. They ran the no huddle, with quicker developing plays and shorter throws. Allen went 5-5 and they scored a touchdown. He also utilized the RBs coming out of the backfield and the two biggest plays of the drive were throws to Yeldon. They then went back to the previous game plan with longer developing plays and deeper throws - and, surprise, he struggled again.
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson have/will won MVP's because of their athleticism. Or do you think Lamar would be putting up the same passing numbers if he was as immobile as a Manning? Of course not. And of course their are other more conventional ways to dominate a game from the QB position. That doesn't mean Allen's legs will not be a huge part of his strength as a QB just as they have been for Cam and Jackson. And even guys like Wilson, Rodgers and Watson. Their is more than one way to get it done. My whole point though was that Sanchez did not have the option of using his mobility like these other elite mobile QB's who all fall under the definition of franchise QB. Allen has that in his tool bag and that is why I would safely predict that Allen will not fizzle out like Sanchez did.
jrober38 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: ELO? Everyone seems to be making up their own system these days. Its funny though, when Tyrod was here, a lot of people used to love quoting ESPN’s QBR metric because he usually ranked pretty high there. Same with the regular NFL QB rating. Now with Allen, those ratings are unreliable and controversial so we go with things like ELO where it looks like Allen is ranked higher. The most popular one is wins. He's winning, and that's good, so just ignore all the data that says he's a bottom tier QB.
Stank_Nasty Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, jrober38 said: ELO is for teams. He's 28th in DYAR, 28th in DVAO, and 28th in QBR. and he's personally accounted for more td's than all but 5 players in the NFL...… last I checked TD's are a pretty important thing in the NFL. along with leading the league in game winning drives and being 3rd in 4th quarter qb rating. just a couple of things that usually DIRECTLY correlate with wins.... but ya, DVOA. you do you, boo. 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: The most popular one is wins. He's winning, and that's good, so just ignore all the data that says he's a bottom tier QB. you continue to ignore any that go against your theory..... you are no better than any other cherry picker on here.... i'd argue you're worse. Edited December 17, 2019 by Stank_Nasty 1
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 30 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. I definitely get the comparison from that angle as well. But we could easily say the same about Russell Wilson. So then the question is which will Allen lean towards? In terms of intangibles and athletic ability alone I see him closer to the Wilson spectrum than the Sanchez spectrum.
jrober38 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson have/will won MVP's because of their athleticism. Or do you think Lamar would be putting up the same passing numbers if he was as immobile as a Manning? Of course not. And of course their are other more conventional ways to dominate a game from the QB position. That doesn't mean Allen's legs will not be a huge part of his strength as a QB just as they have been for Cam and Jackson. And even guys like Wilson, Rodgers and Watson. Their is more than one way to get it done. My whole point though was that Sanchez did not have the option of using his mobility like these other elite mobile QB's who all fall under the definition of franchise QB. Allen has that in his tool bag and that is why I would safely predict that Allen will not fizzle out like Sanchez did. The point I'm making is that athleticism is great, but if you don't eventually develop into a pocket passer who can accurately pick defenses apart from within the pocket, it doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 80 yards or run 4.7 at 240 pounds, you will not make it as a franchise QB in the NFL.
Heitz Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, jrober38 said: He's winning, and that's good, so just ignore all the data that says he's a bottom tier QB. EXACTLY! Because in the end the one data point that is the MOST significant is wins and losses...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bangarang said: ELO? Everyone seems to be making up their own system these days. Its funny though, when Tyrod was here, a lot of people used to love quoting ESPN’s QBR metric because he usually ranked pretty high there. Same with the regular NFL QB rating. Now with Allen, those ratings are unreliable and controversial so we go with things like ELO where it looks like Allen is ranked higher. Admittedly though I’m not familiar with ELO or who created it. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo For those of you who rely on the NFL Passer Rating system for your QB success ratings, take the time to read this. Also, don't bother saying I'm calling it the be all end all- Its not! It is an improvement in that it tries to provide some additional context and doesn't rely on team context only like QBR. Out
jrober38 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I definitely get the comparison from that angle as well. But we could easily say the same about Russell Wilson. So then the question is which will Allen lean towards? In terms of intangibles and athletic ability alone I see him closer to the Wilson spectrum than the Sanchez spectrum. The Allen and Wilson comparison isn't even remotely accurate. Wilson is one of the most efficient QBs in NFL history, and has been since he first entered the league. Josh Allen has a career QB rating of 77.5.
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, jrober38 said: If you want to argue Josh Allen is on the same level as Russell Wilson, I don't know what to say because that's complete insanity. Nobody is arguing he is on the same level as Russell Wilson. In fact, he never needs to be and he could still have a long 15 year career here. I mean hopefully he at least has a better career in terms of winning than a low level franchise QB like Stafford though. The question is does his future outlook put him on track to be closer to a Mark Sanchez or closer to a Russell Wilson? Or maybe exactly in between? And is exactly in between good enough? You seem to be leaning towards Sanchez.
billsfan1959 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Stop trying so hard to make it look worse than it is; it further damages your credibility. When it comes to Allen, he really doesn't have much credibility left. He has been as strong of a non-objective, anti-Allen voice as there is on this board. You rarely hear from him when Allen does well and he can't seem to post enough when Allen doesn't do well (by his perception - which is mostly stat driven). He will cite and cling to any game, play, or stat that supports the opinion he has held of Allen since the draft. 1
thebandit27 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The most popular one is wins. He's winning, and that's good, so just ignore all the data that says he's a bottom tier QB. No silly, we need to ignore wins and him ranking 6th among QBs in total TDs and focus on yards and passer rating because reasons. 2 2 3
Teddy KGB Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, thebandit27 said: No silly, we need to ignore wins and him ranking 6th among QBs in total TDs and focus on yards and passer rating because reasons. 2 1
Bangarang Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo For those of you who rely on the NFL Passer Rating system for your QB success ratings, take the time to read this. Also, don't bother saying I'm calling it the be all end all- Its not! It is an improvement in that it tries to provide some additional context and doesn't rely on team context only like QBR. Out Definitely not the end all be all but this place always finds whatever metric they can that fits their narrative. That goes for both the homers and naysayers. 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The point I'm making is that athleticism is great, but if you don't eventually develop into a pocket passer who can accurately pick defenses apart from within the pocket, it doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 80 yards or run 4.7 at 240 pounds, you will not make it as a franchise QB in the NFL. Well since NFL teams are moving towards the type of QB that colleges are now producing and not that, you will be wrong! This post needs to be revisited at a later date. 2
thebandit27 Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: Definitely not the end all be all but this place always finds whatever metric they can that fits their narrative. That goes for both the homers and naysayers. Indeed. Not sure why it's so difficult to just call it down the middle. Allen has work to do; that's no reason to make outlandish claims about how good or bad he is at the moment 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Definitely not the end all be all but this place always finds whatever metric they can that fits their narrative. That goes for both the homers and naysayers. Are you saying that I picked this stat to support my narrative, because that is completely not the case. I was told that all the metrics said JA ranked it the bottom tier (his QBR is in the mid 20s somewhere), and that was what mattered. Edited December 17, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
ColoradoBills Posted December 17, 2019 Posted December 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, jrober38 said: It's not as hard to win in the NFL when you only need to average 17 points a week because your defense is so good. The defense is the reason we're 10-4 right now. #3 in yards and #2 in points. Anyone who can't admit that isn't watching the games. They're all great. They all run circles around Brady, Montana, Brees and Manning, who are the best QBs in NFL history. Now do Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Jamarcus Russel, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, David Carr, etc, etc, etc. 7 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The point I'm making is that athleticism is great, but if you don't eventually develop into a pocket passer who can accurately pick defenses apart from within the pocket, it doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 80 yards or run 4.7 at 240 pounds, you will not make it as a franchise QB in the NFL. An argument can be made that the day of the pure pocket passer is declining and changing into a new type of QB. Who are the new young "pure pocket passers" that are going to become the next Brady, Brees and Manning(s)? The game is once again evolving (IMHO) and the days of teams only looking for that style of QB seem to be fading some. You posted a list of "athletic" type QBs of mediocre talent but where is the longer list of teams who drafted "pocket" type QBs who also failed. Teams are wising up and letting the college QBs develop into their type of QB and not trying to force them to change into a perceived NFL QB that succeeded in the past. I'm curious where Josh Allen will fit into this new NFL.
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