Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[transplantbillsfan]

And the Dolphins just overtook the Bills for #1 in drop %.

 

Looks like they had a TON of drops the other day.

 

Phins at 5%

Bills at 4.9%

 

For some context, though. Posters seem to believe completion % is completion % and ALL QBs have drops.

 

Bills are currently 2nd worst in drop % and 2nd in total drops. If the Bills were just middle of the pack in the NFL in drops (15 rather than 22), Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.9%. If we jumped to #5 (12), it jumps to 61.5%. And if our WRs were best in the league but still dropped some and we sat at #1 (4), Allen would have a completion % of 63.3%.

Edited December 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
Move the decimal point!!!

[oldmanfan]

15 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

A lot of people are comparing Allen to Mark Sanchez with how Sanchez was a young QB drafted in the Top 10 who was part of a good team or two in his first couple seasons in the league despite performing poorly statistically.

Quote one from a reputable source.  I haven't seen one anywhere.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, 18 months ago you said he was a terrible college QB, so here's to you being massively wrong again!

?

 

Not for nothing, but that happened in the first Miami game.

But Miami sucks. Would love to see it against a good team.  I definitely have seen progress but I would love to see it against a good opponent. We will have our chance mostly in the playoffs.  

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I dunno about that tbh, Van Noy and Collins on the outside can both move fine. Hightower is a plugger but they don’t really ask much more of him. 

 

I'll throw at KVN all day. He couldn't cover my 14 month old with a blanket. 

 

Collins isn't the player he used to be. He can handle his business against most TEs because he's disciplined and still has decent speed. He's not going to man up against Knox.

 

They'll probably try to play zone underneath and keep Josh from killing them with his legs. If he can stay patient in the pocket and hit some early plays to McKenzie and the backs/TEs, they can jump out to an early lead.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

And the Dolphins just overtook the Bills for #1 in drop %.

 

Looks like they had a TON of drops the other day.

 

Phins at 5%

Bills at 4.9%

 

For some context, though. Posters seem to believe completion % is completion % and ALL QBs have drops.

 

Bills are currently 2nd worst in drop % and 2nd in total drops. If the Bills were just middle of the pack in the NFL in drops (15 rather than 22), Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.9%. If we jumped to #5 (12), it jumps to 61.5%. And if our WRs were best in the league but still dropped some and we sat at #1 (4), Allen would have a completion % of 63.3%.

 

I had no idea the drop rate had such a drastic affect on his over all completion percentage. That is crazy.  

[Chicken Boo]

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'll throw at KVN all day. He couldn't cover my 14 month old with a blanket. 

 

Collins isn't the player he used to be. He can handle his business against most TEs because he's disciplined and still has decent speed. He's not going to man up against Knox.

 

They'll probably try to play zone underneath and keep Josh from killing them with his legs. If he can stay patient in the pocket and hit some early plays to McKenzie and the backs/TEs, they can jump out to an early lead.

I want to see a bunch of Singletary counter/offtackle and then hit them w Gore up middle. The Bengals ate their ***** lunch running the ball, they looked a step late and soft on run D

[Mr. K]

I wonder how long the "Bills drops" video will be at the end of this season.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I had no idea the drop rate had such a drastic affect on his over all completion percentage. That is crazy.  

Combine that w the fact that Bills don’t really throw the ball a ton, 2nd in total drops looks even crazier

[Big Gun]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

This is just wrong, so you're saying Allen for the year will have 4 good games and 12 stinkers! No way you're wrong!

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

 

Lol

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Again, he's been able to do these things because our defense allows 15.9 points a game.

 

What would he look like if he played on a team that allowed 24 points per game?

 

Ffs are you trying to say it’s a team sport??? 

 

Nonsense 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I'm not sure why people make excuses for Josh Allen. Allen's problem isn't accuracy, play calling, or players around him. He just processes the game a step behind where we need him to be. With experience hopefully he can process faster and faster.  He is developing. He does some things at a top 10 level. He's already one of the best in the redzone, more so inside the 10. He's learned to limit turnovers. Big test this week vs NE. 

 

One of the comments I heard on tv after last night's game was that what makes Brady and Brees so great is that they have both played in one system so long that they react with the right play almost instantly to any situation they encounter.  They don't have to mentally run through all the plays they could call for that down and distance.  They just have learned over time which call is the most likely to work against in that situation against a defense like their facing.

 

It's like driving a car: after you've been driving for several years, you don't have to think of all the things you have to do like you did when you had your learner's permit.  Allen is like a kid who's just passed his road test but isn't experienced enough to be as good a driver as he could be in a year or two.   Of course, some young drivers never improve much, but most do.  Let's hope Allen gets better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

What's happening this season with regards to the TEAM is that Allen has gotten the job done when he's needed to. He often makes clutch throws in the 4th and plays his best football while the DEFENSE generally gives the offense AMPLE opportunities. So it's working. But let's not pretend like Allen has been great. He's been average overall, but definitely better than last season. That's good. He had a great 3 game stretch that demonstrated he's capable of playing extremely well, albeit against lesser competition.

 

I know this thread is ABOUT JA, but I don't quite get the constant need to demand we believe what our eyes and the stats are telling us. He needs to get better and he's got the tools to do it. The hope is that with a better supporting cast he'll up his game, which is a reasonable assumption. But he makes more headscratching throws than what I would consider to be acceptable. Right now, THIS SEASON, it's fine. I never expected the Bills to be 10-4, so whatever they have going on is working.

 

The Bills are winning for the first time in a LONG time. They're often winning "ugly," but so WHAT? As a fan, it matters very little to me who gets the credit.

 

Part of where I am, and I admit there is subjectivity, is that there doesn't seem to be recognition that Allen is being judged in the context of his tools, without recognition of that context.

 

What I mean is exemplified by assessment of the pass he sailed to Beasley, that was picked.  Was it a throw that rose on him, likely due to poor footwork?  Yes.  Could he make a better throw?  Also Yes.   Does Kittle in SF, or Andrews in Balt, or James Washington,  or 6'5" Collinsworth, make that catch?  Very high probability, Yes.  And then it's a completion, and no one is microanalysing Garappolo or Jackson or Duck or Ken Anderson's mechanics. 

 

As has been pointed out elsewhere, "drops" are a conservative metric where the scorers use pretty restricted criteria on what they call a drop, and even with that, Allen is leading the league and it isn't close.  The Beasley throw would no way be scored as a drop, and yet it is an eminently catchable ball for many TE and WR on many teams.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Jets fans are throwing out the idea that Allen is Sanchez 2.0

 

Problem is, Allen has more athleticism in his big toe than Sanchez had in total. That difference alone will make Allen a franchise QB whereas Sanchez washed out after a few seasons. 

 

Allen also appears to have far greater intangibles going for him that the Sanchize did not. Jets fans can wish all they want that Allen will be Sanchez 2.0 but it seems highly unlikely. 

 

I don't think Sanchez had a high football IQ either. Scored a 28 on the wonderlic. Allen scored a 37. He's not a dummy. Allen might not ever see the game develop like Brady, Peyton or Brees but he's not going to be Mark Sanchez in that regard.

[jrober38]

49 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

A lot of people are comparing Allen to Mark Sanchez with how Sanchez was a young QB drafted in the Top 10 who was part of a good team or two in his first couple seasons in the league despite performing poorly statistically.

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grading-nfls-next-generation-of-quarterbacks-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-shine-in-primetime/

 

Pretty good writeup on Josh and the other young QBs. This guy was not a huge supporter of Josh coming out, so don't go down that road. He had a second round grade on him, but much like our own @GunnerBill he is objective enough to realize that the knocks on Josh are going away one by one.

 

J Rober you can have your QB Rating as the be all, end all. There is little context to that number, you may be able to make a somewhat reasonable comparison to Josh's own QBR from last year to this year. However, you can't really compare him for the most part to guys who play in different schemes, with different receivers , different levels of protections, his mobility, his playmaking in key situations etc. without A TON of adjustments.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Jets fans are throwing out the idea that Allen is Sanchez 2.0

 

Problem is, Allen has more athleticism in his big toe than Sanchez had in total. That difference alone will make Allen a franchise QB whereas Sanchez washed out after a few seasons. 

 

Allen also appears to have far greater intangibles going for him that the Sanchize did not. Jets fans can wish all they want that Allen will be Sanchez 2.0 but it seems highly unlikely. 

 

I don't think Sanchez had a high football IQ either. Scored a 28 on the wonderlic. Allen scored a 37. He's not a dummy. Allen might not ever see the game develop like Brady, Peyton or Brees but he's not going to be Mark Sanchez in that regard.

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

 

So you're saying that Allen is more like Russell Wilson then?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

Do you mind me asking wth does that mean too you?