Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Penfield45]

I still think Allen's completion % is hugely due to our lack of talent on offense and the scheme

 

Daboll looks clueless almost every week calling plays, and we have one of the worst WR's groups in the NFL. 

 

hard to judge a QB with this kind of supporting cast. Allen has the tools he just needs some help now from his GM to get him weapons. 

[VW82]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'll take that as a reasonable explanation, but I also think it's reasonable for the listener to find it annoying and perceive it as bias when announcing a football game, especially if it is not framed that way and if there has been all sorts of pre-game media stuff about "Duck is better than Allen" coming out of an outfit the announcer has a stake in.

 

Seriously? I didn't know that. You think he was indirectly defending his investment?

 

The PFF/Duck stuff was funny but I'm surprised it got taken so seriously, and I'm a supporter of the PFF product despite it's faults. But that was a horrible take re Allen/Duck. Even my buddies who routinely give me a hard time about Allen wouldn't go that far. 

 

I enjoyed the SNF broadcast. Despite the fact we played a "national" team, it felt pretty even. They gushed about our defense. At least we didn't have to endure five straight BS calls to start the game like Thanksgiving. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by VW82

[BringBackOrton]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do we have the highest drop % or not?

 

Do you not get frustrated when our WRs are unable to catch passes they should?

Is .03% difference by far? Or would you like to amend that statement?

 

Sure it’s frustrating. And I hope they clean it up. I think pointing to it as this monumental contextual factor is a bit dramatic.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

[SoTier]

 

On 12/16/2019 at 2:17 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Bills made the playoffs 2 years ago. How is this a measuring stick?

 

I think Allen could be much better right now.

 

I also fear this style of conservative coaching in the playoffs. 

 

Running the ball 3 times inside the opponents' 10 yard line (while being closer to the 10 than the 5) demonstrates fear, and lots of it.

 

Fear trounces you out of the playoffs.

 

So sick of cowardly coaching.

 

 

 

I think it's actually smart coaching.  The Bills simply don't have the offensive personnel to play wide open, especially near the goal line, and McDermott and Daboll are playing for team success.  Against a tough defense with a penchant for forcing turn overs, playing conservative and getting three points rather than a TO is the smart move.  While it's often true that people learn from their mistakes, they don't tend to learn much from continual failure.  Frequent failure breeds discouragement and self doubt, and for a football team, that creates the infamous "losing culture".

 

Conservative coaching isn't the style I'd prefer, but it's what the Bills realistically have to do in order to win games with the offensive talent that they have on the roster, and winning games is the name of the game. 

 

On 12/16/2019 at 2:43 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No. No. No.

 

Own the opponent.

 

I understand who we were playing against. That wasn't the Baltimore defense from last week. Pittsburgh was actually a lighter defense than what Buffalo saw last week. But our play calling still allowed the opponent to potentially tie the football game within the final 2 minutes of the football game (TWICE!!!!) when it NEVER should have come to that.

 

Our coaches don't coach to win. They coach not to lose.

 

That's fine against Devlin Hodges. How's it going to work  in the playoffs against Brady/Jackson/Mahomes/Watson???

 

 

 

Your complaint would be valid if Josh Allen was playing at a much higher level but he's not good enough at this point in his career, and the Bills don't have enough offensive talent around him at present to help him be better in the short term.

 

 

13 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Football is a team sport.

 

I think anyone who is objectively watching these games knows the defense has been carrying the offense all season. 

 

I mean, if Josh Allen was playing on a team with the 20th ranked defense instead of the 2nd ranked defense, his W/L record would be an entirely different story.

 

He's doing enough and we're winning, and he's doing what needs to be done late in games, but let's not pretend that he or this offense are actually "good".

 

We're very limited offensively (22nd in points per game). Hopefully we have another good draft and a productive free agency period and the offense can get into the top half of the league next year.

 

If that happens we'll be Super Bowl contenders next season if the defense remains intact. 

 

Exactly this.   The Bills need success as a team right now much more than Josh Allen needs to try to up his stats, which he probably wouldn't do anyways because the Bills simply don't have the talent around him to help him.   Anybody who doesn't think that the Bills -- and especially Allen -- desperately need a big, sure-handed WR like DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Thomas isn't paying attention.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's what happens with his arm, but his arm isn't the root cause.  It's a reversion to the bad footwork he had at U of Wyoming that Jordan Palmer helped him with.

He overstrides with his front leg and that causes all the other issues.

 

Jim Kubiak, who is a former QB and runs a QB Academy now, does a piece on Allen every game in TBN and explained it (as far as I can tell) correctly and consistently with what Palmer and others have said.  https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/16/buffalo-bills-pittsburgh-steelers-josh-allen-cole-beasley-tyler-kroft/  (paywall, I think there's a trial):

 

"Much has been made of Allen’s mechanics, and footwork still sometimes can be an issue. When a quarterback's feet get too far apart, his hips cannot get over the bent front knee. Allen’s feet are too wide as he tries to use a torquing/rotational twisting motion to generate velocity.  This rotational motion generated by torquing the hips influences the throwing elbow to be lower than the ears.  When this happens, the quarterback’s hand creates a “U” cupping the football resulting in a lower release point, a lower “elbow-first” delivery, culminating in the ball being released below Allen’s helmet. Wide feet increase the chances of a high throw because the hips cannot transfer over the bent front knee and the twisting influences an elbow-first rotational delivery.  This phenomenon again caused the interception that was too high for Beasley coming across the middle.  The football rises as Allen’s feet are outside the framework of his shoulders and his elbow comes through first, pushing the football high."

 

The lay observer such as myself can see that Allen's feet were wider than his shoulders and that the ball had a funny motion and almost "jumped" upward during its flight towards Beasley.  (I thought at first it was deflected.)  Collinsworth sees the arm not being extended upward but he doesn't understand the root cause. 

Where's @Buffalo716, he can weigh in here.

 

I don't feel it's good even-handed announcing to criticize one QB's mechanical flaws without criticizing the other QB equally if there is stuff to criticize (and there was plenty to criticize with Duck, who also just plain mis-fired on some throws), and without pointing out what is done well and Allen had some beautiful on-target lasers.  I thought it was "lazy" regurgitation of narrative that he spliced some observations onto to try to sound knowledgeable.  But that's me.

 

The footwork stuff can be a little annoying at times. Mahomes footwork is rarley good when he’s dropping dimes. 

 

You arent going to have perfect footwork all the time. 

 

He just needs more work. Throwing in imperfect situations is what his arm strength really brings to the table. 

 

Also this inaccuracy narrative looks like it’s nowhere near as bad as you’d think.  

 

I like this website because it’s really just unbiased stats, they must do some subjective analysis but it’s likley standardized criteria. 

 

You can see josh is about 73.6% on target, ahead of Brady, Wentz, Goff. Bills have the highest drop rate and maybe the smallest targets in the league. Also Josh is 8th in the NFL at attempted depth of target. Meaning his accuracy is average overall, even though he’s taking deeper shots. 

 

Theres more... he’s just as likley to throw a bad pass as Aaron Rodgers (same bad pass %)

 

Gives me a lot of hope. Should for all of us. This guy is here to stay and ready to slay. 

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[jrober38]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Wow way to totally ignore the context here.

 

You clearly assume his W/L record would be much worse because you're clearly making an apples to apples transfer of him out of this team and onto another and assuming production would be the same.

 

Our defense has been fantastic... absolutely Elite. Frankly, it should be considering we have a former DC as a Head Coach and we've clearly built this team around defense. That also lends itself to a certain type of offensive philosophy, which is very conservative. It means get the lead--even if it's just 1 score--and let the defense hold onto it. I really don't think McDermott would change that philosophy all that much for any QB he might have with a Defense this good.

 

But Allen has been the QB executing 1/2 of that philosophy. He's scored 82% of this team's TDs. That's the highest % in the league. So that whole "get the lead" half of this equation has been executed very well by Allen all year, even though it's often later in the game than we'd like.

 

He does what's asked of him, often at critical times like on 3rd down or in the 4th quarter.

 

We don't have to pretend he's good. He is.

 

Now I hope Daboll and McDermott loosen the reins a bit and allow him to be great 

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

He's already taken a big step and he's likely to develop much more. He's demonstrated he has the character and work ethic to improve. He is not a bottom tier NFL qb. You have always been a fella who can't see holistically. You're too obsessed with stats. The clutch gene and leadership don't show up in stats. Allen's numbers would be better with greater playmaking talent on the team, a big wr who could track the long ball, etc., but as is, Allen is a fit for what this team is trying to do. But you do you.

[Mango]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Wow way to totally ignore the context here.

 

You clearly assume his W/L record would be much worse because you're clearly making an apples to apples transfer of him out of this team and onto another and assuming production would be the same.

 

Our defense has been fantastic... absolutely Elite. Frankly, it should be considering we have a former DC as a Head Coach and we've clearly built this team around defense. That also lends itself to a certain type of offensive philosophy, which is very conservative. It means get the lead--even if it's just 1 score--and let the defense hold onto it. I really don't think McDermott would change that philosophy all that much for any QB he might have with a Defense this good.

 

But Allen has been the QB executing 1/2 of that philosophy. He's scored 82% of this team's TDs. That's the highest % in the league. So that whole "get the lead" half of this equation has been executed very well by Allen all year, even though it's often later in the game than we'd like.

 

He does what's asked of him, often at critical times like on 3rd down or in the 4th quarter.

 

We don't have to pretend he's good. He is.

 

Now I hope Daboll and McDermott loosen the reins a bit and allow him to be great 

 

So what's happening is, the coaching staff has been like, "Oh man, you could be great, but don't be great, definitely be mediocre and struggle to score points. You know since the defense is fantastic and all. Only be great when the defense is not awesome. We can't have both the offense and defense play at a dominant level. We will let you know when you are allowed to play at your full potential"

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

 

Rubbish.

 

It depends on the stats you use.

 

If you focus on QB rating or yards or % completions he's below average.  But if you look at TOTAL TD's (rushing & passing) he's in the TOP 10.  Even better he has a very good ratio of TD's/TO's (27/13) at over 2. 

 

If you look at 4th quarter ratings he's #3 and Buffalo is designed to win games in the 4th quarter.  That's a stated goal of coach McD.

 

If you look at Allen's Red Zone rankings he's top 10.  For a team with an elite D that's a much more important stat then say passing yardage by the QB.

 

We all agree that Allen has much to improve in his game.  Anyone with a lick of sense also would agree that he gets 4 - 5 years to fully reach his potential.  And only someone with a weak understanding of football would label Allen as a bottom tier NFL QB.  He's middle of the pack with a solid upward trajectory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TH3]

12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

How about this stat - scoring TD's"

 

Lamar - #1 40

JA #6  27

 

Or...yards per game: 

 

Lamar #19

JA #20

 

Which stat more important? 

 

[oldmanfan]

13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

So you're actually showing up after a win?  You have written in the past you only show up after losses, so I'm surprised, although you of course only show up to bash the QB.  This from the guy who would have traded an entire draft for Winston.

Allen is an unfinished product.  it doesn't mater what he would or wouldn't do with a worse defense etc. because football is a team sport.  And Allen leads the lead in fourth quarter comebacks.  Funny you don't seem to consider that when considering stats.  Or maybe not really funny, just typical.

[C.Biscuit97]

Still want to see Allen win a game where the defense isn’t able to keep the opponent under 20 points, but while it wasn’t pretty at times, he made big plays at clutch times.  I think if the offense was more consistent we won’t need the comebacks in the first place but he has shown a knack for it so I tip my hat to him.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I'm not sure why people make excuses for Josh Allen. Allen's problem isn't accuracy, play calling, or players around him. He just processes the game a step behind where we need him to be. With experience hopefully he can process faster and faster.  He is developing. He does some things at a top 10 level. He's already one of the best in the redzone, more so inside the 10. He's learned to limit turnovers. Big test this week vs NE. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

18 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

 

Number 1 in the NFL with 5 game winning drives. If being a winner is a bottom tier attribute, I’ll take it. 

 

 

[jrober38]

23 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

He's already taken a big step and he's likely to develop much more. He's demonstrated he has the character and work ethic to improve. He is not a bottom tier NFL qb. You have always been a fella who can't see holistically. You're too obsessed with stats. The clutch gene and leadership don't show up in stats. Allen's numbers would be better with greater playmaking talent on the team, a big wr who could track the long ball, etc., but as is, Allen is a fit for what this team is trying to do. But you do you.

 

Again, he's been able to do these things because our defense allows 15.9 points a game.

 

What would he look like if he played on a team that allowed 24 points per game?

Edited December 17, 2019 by jrober38

[thebandit27]

25 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Allen is a bottom tier NFL QB. The stats agree. 

 

Just just happens to play on an elite football team (think Mitch Trubisky last year). 

 

Hopefully he takes a big step forward next year. 

 

Well, 18 months ago you said he was a terrible college QB, so here's to you being massively wrong again!

?

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Still want to see Allen win a game where the defense isn’t able to keep the opponent under 20 points, but while it wasn’t pretty at times, he made big plays at clutch times.  I think if the offense was more consistent we won’t need the comebacks in the first place but he has shown a knack for it so I tip my hat to him.

 

Not for nothing, but that happened in the first Miami game.

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I'm not sure why people make excuses for Josh Allen. Allen's problem isn't accuracy, play calling, or players around him. He just processes the game a step behind where we need him to be. With experience hopefully he can process faster and faster.  He is developing. He does some things at a top 10 level. He's already one of the best in the redzone, more so inside the 10. He's learned to limit turnovers. Big test this week vs NE. 

 

I wouldn't say we're making excuses for Allen as much as we're reacting to unfair and ignorant criticism of the guy. 

 

Most of us would agree with your description of where Allen is as he approaches the end of his 2nd season.  We agree that there is much he needs to improve in his game but the future looks bright.  But when someone claims Allen is a "bottom tier QB" there's going to be push back.  Because claiming Allen is "bottom tier" is dumber then saying he's elite. 

[thebandit27]

 

Biggest encouraging sign is that Allen thrives when the staff lets him play the game. It's when they try to protect him from being an NFL QB that he struggles. 

 

Let. Him. Play.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Again, he's been able to do these things because our defense allows 14 points a game.

 

What would he look like if he played on a team that allowed 24 points per game?

 

Our offense already struggles to score points. 

 

Well if our defense sucked Allen might have a whole bunch of 300 yard games as he threw against prevent defenses every week!  I guess that would make some of you happy now wouldn't it?

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by CincyBillsFan