Meatloaf63 Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 15 hours ago, reddogblitz said: While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses. The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs. Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3. Excuse or the truth, have to consider the environment it’s all happening in. Time will tell... 14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Wow. This thread has turned into a crazy analytics argument. Some very simple facts: 1) Josh Allen's upgraded OL still needs to improve because Allen was tied for having the least amount of pocket time in the NFL at 2.3 seconds per dropback. His legs keep him (and the team) alive, but our OL (particularly RG and G) needs to give him a clean pocket to throw from... because in general when he has a clean pocket, he's accurate. 2) If all our WRs actually caught the balls the NFL tracked as drops (these are not passes that you can put on Allen) his completion percentage would be 65.5%. 3) If you also discount Allen's spikes (these are counted as incomplete passes but obviously aren't and are typically good or at least neutral plays by the QB) his completion percentage would be 66.2%. 4) If you also discount throwaways, for which Allen got a lot of heat for NOT doing in his rookie year, his completion percentage would be 71.6%. 5) If you want to keep spikes and throwaways and drops because all QBs have them, fine. What if we made his drop percentage equal to the WRs in Atlanta, who were the best in the NFL at not dropping the football? Now Allen's completion percentage is 64.9%. Would that be considered "good" for our 2nd year still-raw QB? 6) "Giving us the most surehanded WRs in the NFL is unfair!" you say... Fine, how about our WRs are as capable of catching as Lamar Jackson's were in Baltimore, who had the 7th lowest drop percentage in the NFL. If that were the case, Allen's completion percentage would be 62%. Is that a promising improvement for him? 7) Or what if we were just in the middle of the pack... like let's say our drop percentage was Washington Redskin level, instead. Okay, now his completion percentage is 60.7%. Would those so critical of Allen here view that with optimistic eyes? Surrounding Allen with talent is very simply the first and most obvious answer. It started last offseason but the OL clearly needs time to gel, Dawson Knox needs time with a jugs machine, and Allen needs another #1 WR. And yes, Allen needs to work on his game this offseason. But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute. Man, just a fantastic post? Thank you for taking the time for this....
reddogblitz Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, Mango said: I am guessing he meant his fumbles, many of which we dodged a bullet on. Many of which we didn't like in the Houston and Eagles games.
Stank_Nasty Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: I saw this yesterday on nfl.com and was just to lazy to paste it over here. Pretty fair ranking I’d say. Those guys from 14-19 are all pretty interchangeable on any given gameday depending on who’s feeling it. a panel that actually looks at the whole picture for their rankings. What novel idea. Haha.
Stank_Nasty Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me. Seems a bit high. His raw stat line is quite impressive and I don’t think he had a ton of help out there. Regardless I think this is one of the most reasonable and level headed QB lists I’ve seen so far after the season. as far as Allen goes I think they get it pretty good. Right on that line of average to below average with that clutch gene and occasional wow play. I think next year that 10-14 range is a reasonable progression. 1
thebandit27 Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: Seems a bit high. His raw stat line is quite impressive and I don’t think he had a ton of help out there. Regardless I think this is one of the most reasonable and level headed QB lists I’ve seen so far after the season. as far as Allen goes I think they get it pretty good. Right on that line of average to below average with that clutch gene and occasional wow play. I think next year that 10-14 range is a reasonable progression. No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef. He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC.
Gugny Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 Anyone catch Golic/Wingo yesterday morning? They did a segment on who could/would be a breakout QB next season. They brought up every single young QB, including Lock and Jones, and Josh's name never even came up. I was perplexed.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me. I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work. They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements. Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15. There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right? Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment.
Stank_Nasty Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef. He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause. 56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work. They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements. Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15. There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right? Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment. actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20. Edited February 13, 2020 by Stank_Nasty 1
thebandit27 Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause. Yeah, Edmunds and Drake were outstanding for them.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com, man. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20. Well, we'll have to disagree. Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week. Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much. They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play. They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill).
Stank_Nasty Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Well, we'll have to disagree. Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week. Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much. They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play. They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill). he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said: he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree. Ha! Well, you got me there....it can be both, "about as fair a list I've seen on a weekly basis" AND kind of arbitrary and "I've heard of him" based ?. Peace out.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 Tannehill at 7th, I'll wait to see him repeat this year. I'm dubious.
Stank_Nasty Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: Tannehill at 7th, I'll wait to see him repeat this year. I'm dubious. they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. It's not how I'd do it, to each their own. 1
H2o Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Gugny said: Anyone catch Golic/Wingo yesterday morning? They did a segment on who could/would be a breakout QB next season. They brought up every single young QB, including Lock and Jones, and Josh's name never even came up. I was perplexed. You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming.
Gugny Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, H2o said: You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming. Allen's name came up frequently during the season. Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him. I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up.
H2o Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Gugny said: Allen's name came up frequently during the season. Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him. I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up. Did they mention any of the other QB's going into their 3rd year like Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen?
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