Jrb1979 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Got it, see above Please quit obsessing over this. There is no statistical difference between his percentage last year and 60%, yet you treat it like it’s the Holy Grail. No there isn't much difference between his percentage last year and 60%. If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%. Yes Allen was better this season but still not good enough to be the " franchise" as many of you call him. I understand a lot of you are afraid that if Allen isn't the answer of starting over again.
GoBills808 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The team had 31 drops. They dropped 7.3 percent of passes that weren’t spiked or thrown away. That’s absolutely atrocious. If they were even average (5.5%) his completion percentage would rise to above 63%. No offense, but posts like the above are why this discussion drags on and on. If sub 60 isn’t acceptable, then get some WRs and TEs that catch the ***** ball. And then factor in how dependent stats like passer rating and the like are upon comp% This is why I can safely disregard people who harp on statistics because they don't seem to understand the simple facts of what you posted. I have written these exact words several times. It's also why when Booger McFarlane and Joe Tessitore are in the booth and seeing Allen play for what I have to imagine is the first time vs the Texans they sound incredulous that he isn't falling to pieces...because they don't watch Bills games and are viewing him based purely on statistics that were influenced to an outsized degree on the offensive talent around him. The point being as per usual: if you don't understand statistical analysis or how certain 'ratings' are calculated you are going to have a very hard time grading Allen last season. 1
Mango Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Got it, see above Please quit obsessing over this. There is no statistical difference between his percentage last year and 60%, yet you treat it like it’s the Holy Grail. But I think there is a difference between him and his peers. I think what @C.Biscuit97 is eluding to, is that it seems to be a pattern of Josh's to trend on the low end of this metric over his career. Not necessarily that 60% is the absolute marker. 2
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%. Can you expand on this? At its face it seems completely false, so I'd like to know exactly what you intended as criteria. Brady was 60.8% this year, for instance. Rodgers was 62%. Wentz was 60.2% a couple years ago before getting hurt. Cam was 59.8% his MVP season. 1
GoBills808 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Can you expand on this? At its face it seems completely false, so I'd like to know exactly what you intended as criteria. Brady was 60.8% this year, for instance. Rodgers was 62%. Wentz was 60.2% a couple years ago before getting hurt. Cam was 59.8% his MVP season. Not to mention, um, Allen this year lmao
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Mango said: But I think there is a difference between him and his peers. I think what @C.Biscuit97 is eluding to, is that it seems to be a pattern of Josh's to trend on the low end of this metric over his career. Not necessarily that 60% is the absolute marker. And some of that is him, some of it is drops, some of it is offensive philosophies where he throws downfield more in college and the pros. I have no problem saying Allen needs to continue to improve. Why can’t some just say they understand that statistics can be misleading? 29 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: No there isn't much difference between his percentage last year and 60%. If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%. Yes Allen was better this season but still not good enough to be the " franchise" as many of you call him. I understand a lot of you are afraid that if Allen isn't the answer of starting over again. No. There is no difference period. Given the number of passes he threw there is no difference between 58.8% and 60%.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: And some of that is him, some of it is drops, some of it is offensive philosophies where he throws downfield more in college and the pros. I have no problem saying Allen needs to continue to improve. Why can’t some just say they understand that statistics can be misleading? No. There is no difference period. Given the number of passes he threw there is no difference between 58.8% and 60%. I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine. But 60% is like .500 for a qb. He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach. It’s not true. You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield? He is 26th in yards per attempt. again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year. But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this. I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer.
Meatloaf63 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine. But 60% is like .500 for a qb. He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach. It’s not true. You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield? He is 26th in yards per attempt. again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year. But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this. I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer. No 58.9 is well above 500 no matter how you slice it that’s just you being negative. It’s not even comparable you’re just making things up. We’re all glad your fine with another year?Hate to tell you he’s getting at least two more whether you like it or not unless something catastrophic happens next year that would totally be out of his character. Why? Because for what he’s been working with he has earned it whether your biased eyes let you see it or not. If the bills fix their oline issues and add some weapons and he does not improve then the talk will begin. I have a feeling that the Bill brass would have quite a chuckle on your take.., 2
reddogblitz Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 4:36 AM, Meatloaf63 said: Neither has Dak, Wentz, or Goff, but two of those three have got those contracts and the third is about to, and they had much better situations to thrive in yet they all have there flaws. Allen was seen as a project from day one, to ignore the obvious improvements made in the environment he has played in is ridiculous. Terrible offensive line to start with little or no weapons, improved but still substandard o line and weapons second year and Gee what happens with this and experience he improves. Still has receivers who can’t consistently catch, and still has an o line that lets jail break pressure more often than not. Still an inconsistent running game that often put him in a hole. None of the three previously mentioned qbs operate under those conditions. If your eyes can’t tell you what is going on, it must be the neuroplasticity of your brain doesn’t allow it. The real science is people who form bad opinions especially based on statistics will go to the end of the earth to protect those poor opinions even if their eyes tell them differently.... While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses. The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs. Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3. 2
K-9 Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses. The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs. Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3. Was the coaching and talent around him enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs with Matt Barkley at the helm? You make it sound like Allen was just along for the ride. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2020 Author Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 2:40 AM, BigBillsFan said: First of all I agree with everything you wrote. I think Allen will improve. I used the extreme example of newbs learning football to show it's not coaching that's 100% the solution, but the person as well. I once helped coach a kid to have Division I technique in 6 months in tennis, he had borderline pro technique instantly. Great athlete, fast learning, incredible hand-eye coordination, etc.. Once it was a match with pressure he couldn't be consistent to save his life. He was overthinking everything. I'm sure he made a great college player by his 3rd year, but that's as far as it could go. Pressure destroys coaching all the time without the pressure cooker of time to solidify it. There has to be time applied to the learning where it feel natural. Every sport requires massive nuance that just can't be coached, it must be done over and over again. It's called the "feel" for the game. I know you know this, but people think if the player gets X coaching they get a Y solution. It's freaking hard to play sports at the highest level. I 100% believe Josh will be better next year. That same confidence does not mean he'll be a $35 million QB or a starter in the NFL. I hope he does. But the mere belief I think he may not makes people go insane. To say he's inaccurate right now does not mean he can't improve. Is that so unreasonable as to say he may not pan out in this system/staff? That he needs a strong run game and patience to see if he's capable? That other players may in fact be better than he is currently? That he didn't "lead" the team to 10-6 but he was basically along for the ride of a great defense? That a 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals isn't really an accomplishment and more of an indictment we had no offense the whole game? All of those questions are objectively true or could reasonably be argued. You 100% believe Josh will be better next season but although he'll 100% better you don't know if he's an NFL starter????
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2020 Author Posted February 12, 2020 Wow. This thread has turned into a crazy analytics argument. Some very simple facts: 1) Josh Allen's upgraded OL still needs to improve because Allen was tied for having the least amount of pocket time in the NFL at 2.3 seconds per dropback. His legs keep him (and the team) alive, but our OL (particularly RG and G) needs to give him a clean pocket to throw from... because in general when he has a clean pocket, he's accurate. 2) If all our WRs actually caught the balls the NFL tracked as drops (these are not passes that you can put on Allen) his completion percentage would be 65.5%. 3) If you also discount Allen's spikes (these are counted as incomplete passes but obviously aren't and are typically good or at least neutral plays by the QB) his completion percentage would be 66.2%. 4) If you also discount throwaways, for which Allen got a lot of heat for NOT doing in his rookie year, his completion percentage would be 71.6%. 5) If you want to keep spikes and throwaways and drops because all QBs have them, fine. What if we made his drop percentage equal to the WRs in Atlanta, who were the best in the NFL at not dropping the football? Now Allen's completion percentage is 64.9%. Would that be considered "good" for our 2nd year still-raw QB? 6) "Giving us the most surehanded WRs in the NFL is unfair!" you say... Fine, how about our WRs are as capable of catching as Lamar Jackson's were in Baltimore, who had the 7th lowest drop percentage in the NFL. If that were the case, Allen's completion percentage would be 62%. Is that a promising improvement for him? 7) Or what if we were just in the middle of the pack... like let's say our drop percentage was Washington Redskin level, instead. Okay, now his completion percentage is 60.7%. Would those so critical of Allen here view that with optimistic eyes? Surrounding Allen with talent is very simply the first and most obvious answer. It started last offseason but the OL clearly needs time to gel, Dawson Knox needs time with a jugs machine, and Allen needs another #1 WR. And yes, Allen needs to work on his game this offseason. But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute. 1 1 1
GoBills808 Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine. But 60% is like .500 for a qb. He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach. It’s not true. You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield? He is 26th in yards per attempt. again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year. But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this. I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer. Do you realize how off base it is to compare the difference between 58.8% and 60% over 461 attempts to .500 and .4375 over 16 games? Edited February 12, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan inappropriate language - italicized replacement 1
GunnerBill Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute. I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record.
Buffalo716 Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine. But 60% is like .500 for a qb. He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach. It’s not true. You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield? He is 26th in yards per attempt. again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year. But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this. I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer. You do realize that he was top 5 in drops and top 5 in throwaways Yea he has alot to improve but he is definitely not in as scheme friendly system as Lamar and has had to make alot happen 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record. Damn do you have a soul Gunner? 1
GunnerBill Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said: Damn do you have a soul Gunner? Can't stand cats. I am not a big pet person. I had a goldfish once when I was a kid. Does that count?
Buffalo716 Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: Can't stand cats. I am not a big pet person. I had a goldfish once when I was a kid. Does that count? Not a huge cat fan but I still think a kitten is cute lol And yes, only if you flushed him down the toilet
Stank_Nasty Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 9 hours ago, reddogblitz said: While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses. The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs. Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3. 13 total TO’s doesn’t really seem like a huge issue to me going forward. And 8 of those came in the first 4 games.... In fact I’d actually be ok with a couple of more picks if it meant we were being even mode aggressive and saw more yds and points come with it 2 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2020 Author Posted February 12, 2020 10 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record.
Mango Posted February 12, 2020 Posted February 12, 2020 5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said: 13 total TO’s doesn’t really seem like a huge issue to me going forward. And 8 of those came in the first 4 games.... In fact I’d actually be ok with a couple of more picks if it meant we were being even mode aggressive and saw more yds and points come with it I am guessing he meant his fumbles, many of which we dodged a bullet on. 1
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