Mango Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 53 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: You have gone off the reservation now. What I said very directly is that trends are not definitive proof. Anyone with a single functioning neuron in their skull would rather see positive vs. negative trends in data. For example, Allen's completion percentage went up several percentage points year one to year two. That's a nice trend, but hardly conclusive. I'd like to see it continue to go up next year and not fall back. His interception rate went down, that's always a nice thing to see. But not definitive. Where you continually miss the point is that you and others take a single data point and try and make it into something meaningful, when it is not. The 60% completion rate is a perfect example. People go on and on about that as if it the Holy Grail of QB play. But there is little data to prove that, and Allen is not statistically different from that number anyway. And here is what you and others who don't seem to like the guy do: you just then arbitrarily move the goalpost. So if he hits 60%? it will become that 62% is the Holy Grail, or 65% when he hits 62%, and so on. Let's take the quote from you on this magical 62% number; I'll copy it again here: "Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college" So there's your quote, and you are saying now that you did not say you need to have 62% accuracy to be successful? Excuse my bluntness, but then what the hell do you mean with this quote? Do you have to be accurate to be successful? Or not? Or what? As for Allen and that he cannot improve, your rather strong implication based on your erroneous understanding of neuroplasticity is that he won't. Can't was perhaps too strong an interpretation on my behalf. But, again, that is where your background matters. I have a background in anatomy and physiology. If you have a background in medicine or psychology or physiology where you have studied this we could have an very insightful discussion. Do you? I am an admitted skeptic on most football ratings for QB play (or other positions for that matter) because, by and large, they do not take into the multivariate nature of the game. Take a single stat like completion percentage. The number of variables that go into whether a single pass is completed (effect of the pass rush, defense, QB's ability to throw, WRs ability to catch ) are many, then multiply those over X passes per game, and then X passes per season, and I contend the variables are not well accounted for. QBR tries to take variables into account, but their approach is proprietary and even QB's in the league (I have seen quotes from guys like Rivers) do not understand what the QBR is calculated and what it really means. Let's take a QB go 20/25 for 2 TDs and no picks and a win vs. a guy that goes 30/62 for more yards, 1 TD, 2 picks, and a loss. The former probably has a better QBR, but does it mean he's a better QB? The former implies the QB took what was there, had a stronger running game, and a better defense. The latter probably had a worse running game, and a D that gave up points and forced him into throwing more to try and catch up. The latter may be a HOFer, and just hit the wrong team on the wrong day. I prefer the Potter Stewart method of evaluating QBs myself. Potter Stewart was a Supreme Court justice who in a famous trial on pornography said: "I know it when I see it". I've been watching football since the Bills started in 1960. Haven't seen enough to know it yet with Allen. But I've seen enough to know I want to see more. Honest questions. What is the standard deviation for statistical significance during an NFL season. Just curious, would Allen have to jump to 65, 70, 75% or down to 50% for the year? Additionally in regards to the OL- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) In regards to actual accuracy would having the 5th highest bad throw % while having the 21st lowest on target % indicate any sort of trend?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: Wow this thread That's a strangely disturbing visual. I may need my TBD Mod Emotional Support Animal to handle this. 5
Reed83HOF Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: That's a strangely disturbing visual. I may need my TBD Mod Emotional Support Animal to handle this. a simple search for what the hell is going on here gif and I find this one on giphy
oldmanfan Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Mango said: Honest questions. What is the standard deviation for statistical significance during an NFL season. Just curious, would Allen have to jump to 65, 70, 75% or down to 50% for the year? Additionally in regards to the OL- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) In regards to actual accuracy would having the 5th highest bad throw % while having the 21st lowest on target % indicate any sort of trend? As far as standard deviation you would have to give me the specific variable, but as a general rule the more measurements you take the more normal the data distribution and the smaller the deviation. As far as measuring accuracy, truly the only way to measure that is to throw at a fixed target. I have mentioned the dartboard analogy here before, and it has generated a lot of comment! Accuracy is how close you come to a specific point, and precision is how repeatable to hit the same point. So if you surrounded a bulls eye, but you make a ring an inch away from the bulls eye, you’re accurate but not precise. Conversely, you can hit the same exact point time after time, but if that point is two inches to the right of the bullseye you’re precise but not accurate. So, taking that to your comment on the on target percentage, I would first ask how you define your target. I have seen pff define it as right between the numbers. That to me requires not only high accuracy, but really high precision. The great QBs (and the great dart throwers) are both highly accurate AND highly precise. Allen is pretty accurate; I have graded several of his games and defined accuracy by a throw in the receiver’s catch radius. But he can improve precision, throwing it to a tighter spot where say a receiver makes a catch more in stride. He is both when he has time to set up and use good mechanics like most QBs. And to me his ability to process and make quicker decisions where to go with the ball is the key for that. Protection can help there as well, but overall I want to see him make quicker decisions. His bad throw stuff I think is affected by him tending to throw downfield farther. He has to learn to take the check down (funny how many want to see that now we’re the same folks screaming about Trent Edwards). Take the dart board guy again. If he’s throwing at a dart board 40 feet away vs. 10 feet he’ll probably have more bad throws at 40. I think Allen has it physically. His challenge is the decision making. He was better this past year than his rookie year. He should continue that trend next year; I see no reason to think he won’t.
Mango Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: As far as standard deviation you would have to give me the specific variable, but as a general rule the more measurements you take the more normal the data distribution and the smaller the deviation. As far as measuring accuracy, truly the only way to measure that is to throw at a fixed target. I have mentioned the dartboard analogy here before, and it has generated a lot of comment! Accuracy is how close you come to a specific point, and precision is how repeatable to hit the same point. So if you surrounded a bulls eye, but you make a ring an inch away from the bulls eye, you’re accurate but not precise. Conversely, you can hit the same exact point time after time, but if that point is two inches to the right of the bullseye you’re precise but not accurate. So, taking that to your comment on the on target percentage, I would first ask how you define your target. I have seen pff define it as right between the numbers. That to me requires not only high accuracy, but really high precision. The great QBs (and the great dart throwers) are both highly accurate AND highly precise. Allen is pretty accurate; I have graded several of his games and defined accuracy by a throw in the receiver’s catch radius. But he can improve precision, throwing it to a tighter spot where say a receiver makes a catch more in stride. He is both when he has time to set up and use good mechanics like most QBs. And to me his ability to process and make quicker decisions where to go with the ball is the key for that. Protection can help there as well, but overall I want to see him make quicker decisions. His bad throw stuff I think is affected by him tending to throw downfield farther. He has to learn to take the check down (funny how many want to see that now we’re the same folks screaming about Trent Edwards). Take the dart board guy again. If he’s throwing at a dart board 40 feet away vs. 10 feet he’ll probably have more bad throws at 40. I think Allen has it physically. His challenge is the decision making. He was better this past year than his rookie year. He should continue that trend next year; I see no reason to think he won’t. In regard to standard deviation- The median pass attempts among the top 32 this year was 317. You didn't touch on the OL performance- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) I understand where you are coming from with accuracy vs. on target. Based on the data available from this source, would you say it is statistically indicative of anything or should it just be tossed out? Per PFR, where I grabbed the on target and bad throw numbers, they define them as: Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort On-Target Throws*: By QBs - throws that would have hit the intended receiving target I am curious of the actual break down and trends from somebody who spends more time with it. 1
oldmanfan Posted February 10, 2020 Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Mango said: In regard to standard deviation- The median pass attempts among the top 32 this year was 317. You didn't touch on the OL performance- Allen is the 6th most blitzed passer in the league, but only the 21st most hurried. According to PFR (defined as a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure). Would that be trending towards the offensive line takes a lot of blitz's but does an "OK" job picking them up? (We seem to have an issue with stunts) I understand where you are coming from with accuracy vs. on target. Based on the data available from this source, would you say it is statistically indicative of anything or should it just be tossed out? Per PFR, where I grabbed the on target and bad throw numbers, they define them as: Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort On-Target Throws*: By QBs - throws that would have hit the intended receiving target I am curious of the actual break down and trends from somebody who spends more time with it. I’m afraid I’m not much of an expert on breaking down O line play. My uneducated mind agrees we tend to not do well with stunts. I’m not sure how to reconcile the blitz vs. hurried data; you’d have to know how many hurries come from non-blitz rushes vs. blitz. As for the median of 317 passes this season you’d want to know the range for that data.
BigBillsFan Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 5 hours ago, oldmanfan said: You have gone off the reservation now. What I said very directly is that trends are not definitive proof. Anyone with a single functioning neuron in their skull would rather see positive vs. negative trends in data. For example, Allen's completion percentage went up several percentage points year one to year two. That's a nice trend, but hardly conclusive. I'd like to see it continue to go up next year and not fall back. His interception rate went down, that's always a nice thing to see. But not definitive. Where you continually miss the point is that you and others take a single data point and try and make it into something meaningful, when it is not. The 60% completion rate is a perfect example. People go on and on about that as if it the Holy Grail of QB play. But there is little data to prove that, and Allen is not statistically different from that number anyway. And here is what you and others who don't seem to like the guy do: you just then arbitrarily move the goalpost. So if he hits 60%? it will become that 62% is the Holy Grail, or 65% when he hits 62%, and so on. Let's take the quote from you on this magical 62% number; I'll copy it again here: "Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college" So there's your quote, and you are saying now that you did not say you need to have 62% accuracy to be successful? Excuse my bluntness, but then what the hell do you mean with this quote? Do you have to be accurate to be successful? Or not? Or what? As for Allen and that he cannot improve, your rather strong implication based on your erroneous understanding of neuroplasticity is that he won't. Can't was perhaps too strong an interpretation on my behalf. But, again, that is where your background matters. I have a background in anatomy and physiology. If you have a background in medicine or psychology or physiology where you have studied this we could have an very insightful discussion. Do you? I am an admitted skeptic on most football ratings for QB play (or other positions for that matter) because, by and large, they do not take into the multivariate nature of the game. Take a single stat like completion percentage. The number of variables that go into whether a single pass is completed (effect of the pass rush, defense, QB's ability to throw, WRs ability to catch ) are many, then multiply those over X passes per game, and then X passes per season, and I contend the variables are not well accounted for. QBR tries to take variables into account, but their approach is proprietary and even QB's in the league (I have seen quotes from guys like Rivers) do not understand what the QBR is calculated and what it really means. Let's take a QB go 20/25 for 2 TDs and no picks and a win vs. a guy that goes 30/62 for more yards, 1 TD, 2 picks, and a loss. The former probably has a better QBR, but does it mean he's a better QB? The former implies the QB took what was there, had a stronger running game, and a better defense. The latter probably had a worse running game, and a D that gave up points and forced him into throwing more to try and catch up. The latter may be a HOFer, and just hit the wrong team on the wrong day. I prefer the Potter Stewart method of evaluating QBs myself. Potter Stewart was a Supreme Court justice who in a famous trial on pornography said: "I know it when I see it". I've been watching football since the Bills started in 1960. Haven't seen enough to know it yet with Allen. But I've seen enough to know I want to see more. I never said it was definitive proof, but that using your own standards all the trends you see are from your perspective statistically meaningless. I'm not trying to be a jerk about it, but that's the standard that was set about completion %. Sorry if I upset you. My point about completion % is more nuanced. There were always 2 kids of QBs in the pros. The big armed guys who went deep (Elway) and the guys who did the WC offense (Montana). Some guys went more high % in their throws and some guys were big play makers. Montana threw around 64% in the 49ers peak in the 80's and Elway around 55%. Montana hit stride at 66% one year and 70% 2 years later. Elway started to hit 62%. The numbers started to go up. By the late 90's the idea of the accurate QB started to become more of a phenomenon and the deep ballers started to fade. By 2001, when Brees left college, hitting 62% in completions made you extremely accurate. Only guys like Kurt Warner and Manning were exceptions of being accurate with a lot of yards. Jeff Garcia was a small baller. Pro Bowlers were still passing for 58% and throwing for 3800 yards. My point was not success = accuracy, but it was a different kind of QB. Brees came from a different age. He was considered an accurate, short-distance QB. I still believe that in today's game if you cannot hit 62% accuracy it's hard to be successful with the exception being Cam Newton. Now as to my view on neuroplasticity I stand by what I said and you haven't disproven it. All I said is that it's harder to change as you get older and the habits needed to have mechanical success are best attained before the age of 20-21 and harder to break later. I never said it "cannot" be done. Because this debate has become uncivil (which I too am included and I apologize) I'm bowing out. I wish you well on this thread. I don't believe in circular firing squads among fans with the same allegiance. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 LMAO...this is at 111 pages now? Hahaha crazy, its gonna hit 200 and be all the same arguments over and over. Its pretty simple and doesn't need 111 pages. Did Allen improve in just about every measurable statistic this year? Yes Does Allen still have areas he needs to keep improving? Yes Is he a finished product or peaked? No Is there a reason to be excited for next year? Yes There was that so hard? NOTE: Allen has had no high level coaching until he got to the Bills. Under that coaching, in the highest level of football in the world, he has continued to improve in every major category, including accuracy. For anyone to argue he cant get better, especially on accuracy, is just being foolish. He made a significant jump in accuracy this year, DESPITE: An underwhelming receiving core that included a raw rookie TE, top 3 WRs second half of the year averaging 5'10" in height, and seeing the Bills lead the league in dropped passes. Lets not forget the travesty that was Zay Jones and Robert Foster this year either. Bottom line, a heck of a lot more to be optimistic about than pessimistic right now. He isn't a finished product, but he is certainly a guy who is trending in the right directions with intangibles and gifts you cant teach. 5
GoBills808 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said: I never said it was definitive proof, but that using your own standards all the trends you see are from your perspective statistically meaningless. I'm not trying to be a jerk about it, but that's the standard that was set about completion %. Sorry if I upset you. My point about completion % is more nuanced. There were always 2 kids of QBs in the pros. The big armed guys who went deep (Elway) and the guys who did the WC offense (Montana). Some guys went more high % in their throws and some guys were big play makers. Montana threw around 64% in the 49ers peak in the 80's and Elway around 55%. Montana hit stride at 66% one year and 70% 2 years later. Elway started to hit 62%. The numbers started to go up. By the late 90's the idea of the accurate QB started to become more of a phenomenon and the deep ballers started to fade. By 2001, when Brees left college, hitting 62% in completions made you extremely accurate. Only guys like Kurt Warner and Manning were exceptions of being accurate with a lot of yards. Jeff Garcia was a small baller. Pro Bowlers were still passing for 58% and throwing for 3800 yards. My point was not success = accuracy, but it was a different kind of QB. Brees came from a different age. He was considered an accurate, short-distance QB. I still believe that in today's game if you cannot hit 62% accuracy it's hard to be successful with the exception being Cam Newton. Now as to my view on neuroplasticity I stand by what I said and you haven't disproven it. All I said is that it's harder to change as you get older and the habits needed to have mechanical success are best attained before the age of 20-21 and harder to break later. I never said it "cannot" be done. Because this debate has become uncivil (which I too am included and I apologize) I'm bowing out. I wish you well on this thread. I don't believe in circular firing squads among fans with the same allegiance.
Nihilarian Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Brian Daboll ...high level coaching? The guy calls plays at times like he has Tom Brady at QB, and even then this season he would have lasting less than one game under Belichick. You don't see Josh McDaniel's putting Brady under the gun like Daboll does with Allen. Meaning if Brady is having a bad game the Patriots work that run game like no other team...usually. Well, that last sentence is not totally true as that first game against the Patriots in week four, Tom Brady went 18 of 39 for 150 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT. A 45.9 QB rating! This against that #3 overall Buffalo Bills defense. OMG, how very un-Brady like! OMG... how every Josh Allen like! This simply shows that putting the game on the QB shoulders against a top defense gives even the GOAT fits. This season Brady had a limited receiver corps in WR Julian Edelman, RB James White to throw to too. Daboll did this same thing against a few teams, the Patriots with their #1 defense 2x, The Ravens with their #4 defense and even against teams with bad defenses like the Browns and Texans. The Bills lost because they asked the QB to carry the game by throwing while almost ignoring utilizing their best weapon other than Allen in RB Devin Singletary. Let's not forget that Josh Allen led the team in rushing TD's with 9. Gore had 2 TD's, Singletary also had only 2 rushing TD's. Think about that for a min and ask why is that with that supposed improved offensive line. Green bay with Aaron Rodgers has been asking Rodgers to carry the team with his arm the last few seasons up until 2019. 2017, 7-9. 2018 6-9-1. This with arguably one of the very best QB's in the league. In 2019 Green Bay under a new HC ran the ball more often with RB Aaron Jones 1084 rushing yards 16 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TD's. This took a lot of the game off Rodgers shoulders and the Packers went 13-3 in 2019. Simply saying that Allen's completion percentage could have been so much better had the play calling stayed more consistent all season. Like it was against the Cowboys 34 rushes vs 25 passes. the Steelers 38 rushes vs 25 passes. Against Denver and at that time #4 defense against the run 47 rushes vs 25 passes. Just like the Bills did against the Texans in that WC game, with a 16 point lead the Bills blew that lead by asking the QB to keep throwing instead of pounding the rock to play keep away. The Bills weren't the only ones to do that as the 49ers seemed to do the exact same thing in the SB against the Chiefs. With a lead the 49ers asked Jimmy G to keep throwing when the teams forte was the run game. The result, a loss.
Mango Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 (edited) 17 hours ago, oldmanfan said: I’m afraid I’m not much of an expert on breaking down O line play. My uneducated mind agrees we tend to not do well with stunts. I’m not sure how to reconcile the blitz vs. hurried data; you’d have to know how many hurries come from non-blitz rushes vs. blitz. As for the median of 317 passes this season you’d want to know the range for that data. I am going to harness my college stats classes for a minute. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. The data is super easy to grab and sort on PFR. So just to put Allen in relation to his peers. I calculated the SD (using N, no need for N-1 because we know the sample size) for both 2018 and 2019 for QB's with 11+ starts (because Allen's rookie year was only 11 starts). The SD for 2018 was 4.55 and 2019 3.69. In 2018 Allen was nearly 3 SD back (2.75) and in 2019 1.44 SD's. So the data would suggest that both 1. Allen made huge individual strides in regards to completion percentage. and 2. He is still very close to the bottom of the league in relation to his peers performance. Edited February 11, 2020 by Mango
thebandit27 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Mango said: I am going to harness my college stats classes for a minute. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. The data is super easy to grab and sort on PFR. So just to put Allen in relation to his peers. I calculated the SD (using N, no need for N-1 because we know the sample size) for both 2018 and 2019 for QB's with 11+ starts (because Allen's rookie year was only 11 starts). The SD for 2018 was 4.55 and 2019 3.69. In 2018 Allen was nearly 3 SD back (2.75) and in 2019 1.44 SD's. So the data would suggest that both 1. Allen made huge individual strides in regards to completion percentage. and 2. He is still very close to the bottom of the league in relation to his peers performance. If you do the same exercise for On-Target throw percentage—which is objectively a better indicator of accuracy—you get a mean of 75.14 and a SD of 3.57. Since Allen’s figure was 73.2, that puts him a little more than half a SD behind the mean. 2
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 I just want this to keep going. We can make a million posts and counter points. But anyway you slice it, it hitting 60% in the nfl isn’t good enough. Not hitting 60% in the SEC isn’t good enough, much less the MWC. But it is also not fair to say there wasn’t progress. As a critic of the pick, I think people are too easy to dismiss this number and find other things to blame instead of Allen. But he’s definitely earn another full year of starting. however if we are asking the same questions next offseason, it’s problem time to move on. 2 1 1
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mango said: I am going to harness my college stats classes for a minute. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. The data is super easy to grab and sort on PFR. So just to put Allen in relation to his peers. I calculated the SD (using N, no need for N-1 because we know the sample size) for both 2018 and 2019 for QB's with 11+ starts (because Allen's rookie year was only 11 starts). The SD for 2018 was 4.55 and 2019 3.69. In 2018 Allen was nearly 3 SD back (2.75) and in 2019 1.44 SD's. So the data would suggest that both 1. Allen made huge individual strides in regards to completion percentage. and 2. He is still very close to the bottom of the league in relation to his peers performance. Can you clarify the data set? Is this completion percentage? Never mind, I see that it is now. I think we’d all like to see a higher completion percentage because it would basically just look better. But when I said above that just focusing on a number can be short sighted, this is an example. You have to take all the confounding variables into account that could affect completion percentage. The throwing ability of a QB us one of those of course. But drops are another one. Throwaways another. Play calls - how many throws are more downfield vs. quick checkdowns. Allen to me needs to improve on reading defenses. That would let him throw more often to the hot open guy, make the quicker checkdown throw. That will improve his percentage more than anything. i see the 60% thing has reared its ugly head again. I’ve done this before but the difference between 58.6% and 60% adds up to less than one completion per game Edited February 11, 2020 by oldmanfan
thebandit27 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 54 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I just want this to keep going. We can make a million posts and counter points. But anyway you slice it, it hitting 60% in the nfl isn’t good enough. Not hitting 60% in the SEC isn’t good enough, much less the MWC. But it is also not fair to say there wasn’t progress. As a critic of the pick, I think people are too easy to dismiss this number and find other things to blame instead of Allen. But he’s definitely earn another full year of starting. however if we are asking the same questions next offseason, it’s problem time to move on. The team had 31 drops. They dropped 7.3 percent of passes that weren’t spiked or thrown away. That’s absolutely atrocious. If they were even average (5.5%) his completion percentage would rise to above 63%. No offense, but posts like the above are why this discussion drags on and on. If sub 60 isn’t acceptable, then get some WRs and TEs that catch the ***** ball. 2 1
Mango Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Can you clarify the data set? Is this completion percentage? That is completion percentage, for QB's with 11 or more starts in each of 2018 and 2019. Just to normalize the data between both. That does also mean that Brees, Bridgewater, Tannehill, etc. do not make the cut in 2019.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, thebandit27 said: The team had 31 drops. They dropped 7.3 percent of passes that weren’t spiked or thrown away. That’s absolutely atrocious. If they were even average (5.5%) his completion percentage would rise to above 63%. No offense, but posts like the above are why this discussion drags on and on. If sub 60 isn’t acceptable, then get some WRs and TEs that catch the ***** ball. So what’s the reasons in college, Juco, and high school? Are there videos of every drop because not all drops are the same. For instance, I remember a crossing route with Brown against CLE where it is completely thrown behind but he gets his hands on it? Is that considered a drop (honestly asking)? Did you believe some qbs throw a more catchable football? if Allen hit 60% once on any level of football, it’s easier to find reasons why. But when he never has, it definitely seems like a serious issue for him. good news is they should add some wrs (though they have been really bad at drafting them) and he has next year to prove it. But to ignore it is putting your head in the sand imo. 1
thebandit27 Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: So what’s the reasons in college, Juco, and high school? Are there videos of every drop because not all drops are the same. For instance, I remember a crossing route with Brown against CLE where it is completely thrown behind but he gets his hands on it? Is that considered a drop (honestly asking)? Did you believe some qbs throw a more catchable football? if Allen hit 60% once on any level of football, it’s easier to find reasons why. But when he never has, it definitely seems like a serious issue for him. good news is they should add some wrs (though they have been really bad at drafting them) and he has next year to prove it. But to ignore it is putting your head in the sand imo. In order: He wasn’t as good then Probably No, not a drop per the definition on PFR Yes And like I’ve said, the key number to me is On-Target percentage, which was 73.2 (21st). Not good enough, but hardly terrible. 1
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2020 Posted February 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, Mango said: That is completion percentage, for QB's with 11 or more starts in each of 2018 and 2019. Just to normalize the data between both. That does also mean that Brees, Bridgewater, Tannehill, etc. do not make the cut in 2019. Got it, see above 15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: So what’s the reasons in college, Juco, and high school? Are there videos of every drop because not all drops are the same. For instance, I remember a crossing route with Brown against CLE where it is completely thrown behind but he gets his hands on it? Is that considered a drop (honestly asking)? Did you believe some qbs throw a more catchable football? if Allen hit 60% once on any level of football, it’s easier to find reasons why. But when he never has, it definitely seems like a serious issue for him. good news is they should add some wrs (though they have been really bad at drafting them) and he has next year to prove it. But to ignore it is putting your head in the sand imo. Please quit obsessing over this. There is no statistical difference between his percentage last year and 60%, yet you treat it like it’s the Holy Grail.
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