Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[BigBillsFan]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Drew Brees completion percentage the second season he started was 57.6%, OK, so how about you get off your "better completion percentage than Josh ever had as a starter" high hoss.  Do you really think it's a big deal out of 60.8 (Brees 1st season starting, 2nd season in league) being so much better than 58.8% 2nd season in league?

 

Because it’s accurate. 60% is higher than Josh’s 1st 2 seasons. I never said it was "so much better" but it was "better". If you read what I wrote I never used hyperbole like "so much better".

 

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is getting a bit much.

 

Yes because it's assumed that House did the change = Brees becoming better. That's not established. Improvement? Sure, but all improvements were from coaching? Yes, it's getting a bit too much if you think so.

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Moreover, if Brees truly did have “amazing mechanics” coming out of Purdue, then why was he a career 61% passer in college?

 

Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2001/passing.htm

 

When Brees was drafted only 2 players over 4k yards, and at 62% completions which is now the norm for over 2/3rds of QBs today only 6 in the league could pull it off.

 

61% was great in college when he was drafted.

[thebandit27]

25 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Because it’s accurate. 60% is higher than Josh’s 1st 2 seasons. I never said it was "so much better" but it was "better". If you read what I wrote I never used hyperbole like "so much better".

 

 

Yes because it's assumed that House did the change = Brees becoming better. That's not established. Improvement? Sure, but all improvements were from coaching? Yes, it's getting a bit too much if you think so.

 

Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2001/passing.htm

 

When Brees was drafted only 2 players over 4k yards, and at 62% completions which is now the norm for over 2/3rds of QBs today only 6 in the league could pull it off.

 

61% was great in college when he was drafted.

Wait, wait, are you seriously saying that 60% in college is somehow similar to 75% in the pros? For the same player?
 

That’s definitely the worst argument I’ve read on this subject.

 

For reference, Chris Freakin’ Weinke—who went 70+ picks after Brees—had a better completion percentage than Brees in both their Junior and Senior seasons.

 

Now I know that Chris Weinke is an all-time great precision passer and everything, but I don’t know that he’d be completing 75% of his throws if he were still in the league.

 

Same goes for that HOFer in waiting Josh Heupel, who was picked 140+ picks after Brees. He was 2% better than Brees in both 1999 and 2000–their final 2 college seasons. 
 

Maybe it’s just easier to say that this position of yours is indefensible and leave it at that.

[oldmanfan]

36 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Because it’s accurate. 60% is higher than Josh’s 1st 2 seasons. I never said it was "so much better" but it was "better". If you read what I wrote I never used hyperbole like "so much better".

 

 

Yes because it's assumed that House did the change = Brees becoming better. That's not established. Improvement? Sure, but all improvements were from coaching? Yes, it's getting a bit too much if you think so.

 

Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2001/passing.htm

 

When Brees was drafted only 2 players over 4k yards, and at 62% completions which is now the norm for over 2/3rds of QBs today only 6 in the league could pull it off.

 

61% was great in college when he was drafted.

I’ve covered this before.  There is no statistical difference between 58.6% and 60% given the sample size of passes thrown.  You have no understanding of statistics it would appear.  Similar to your throwing around neuroplasticity and intimating folks can’t learn after a certain age (and as I said above I teach neuroanatomy and physiology).    Throw in your ignoring actual written material about the example you gave (Brees) and your ignorance in equating accuracy and completion percentage even though that has been debunked time and time again and let’s just say your opinions don’t carry much weight.

 

Oh, and your arbitrarily setting new standards for completion percentages?  Get over yourself.

[Meatloaf63]

4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.

 

Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.

 

How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

He doesn’t have massive mechanical issues, not true just because you are here spouting your BS, you’ve been shown to be wrong, might as well cut your losses quit and re join again for god only knows how many times. Just another fool to be ignored...

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/6/2020 at 2:27 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).

 

What????

 

Dude, it's only probably in the last 15-20 years that young QBs have specialized in one sport and gone to all these QB camps.

 

It's only recently that these rookies are coming into the NFL really good out the gate. Like QBs of previous generations, Allen just needs time... and even so, he's ahead of most objective expectations.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 2:27 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.

 

 

So you believe the example of yourself proves your point?

 

I really really don't mean this as an insult mods, but maybe you just weren't good enough. 

 

And there's not anything wrong with that. It's just a very small percentage of people who have the combined emotional, mental and physical (especially) aptitude to play a professional sport, especially QB, which requires more of the emotional and mental than most other positions.

 

On 2/6/2020 at 2:27 PM, BigBillsFan said:

Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.

 

What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.

 

Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.

 

Allen stated himself that his injury in his rookie year was a blessing in disguise. He came back after that injury looking noticeably better than he did before it.

 

And then with a full offseason under his belt, he improved again and looked even better than he did in the 2nd half of his rookie season.

 

I don't understand why you believe he's hit some sort of wall.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/6/2020 at 3:51 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.

Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.

 

It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.

 

It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.

 

Yeah the Burrow to Allen comparison in terms of level of play might be apples to oranges... but the very fact that you acknowledge that a Joe Burrow can "click" proves the point.

 

What is it about Allen that you don't think he could do the same?

 

On 2/6/2020 at 3:51 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.

 

Allen's situation is extremely unique historically.

 

That's the point.

 

It seems like you're trying to use analytics to prove Allen will fail.

 

The problem is that analytics require multiple data points. With the uniqueness of Allen's situation, those aren't there.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/7/2020 at 12:02 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.

 

You're delusional.

 

The Bills got the 1st pick of the 3rd round for Tyrod and Allen would be coveted more than Taylor.

 

You have a very jaded perspective on Allen.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/7/2020 at 3:10 PM, LSHMEAB said:

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

 

The Bills would obviously be able to get at least one 1st round pick for Allen if the Cardinals got a 2nd and a 5th for Josh Rosen.

 

2 1sts and 2 2nds is a stretch. One 1st and one 2nd is possible.

 

Still can't believe someone said he'd only fetch a 3rd 

[Mango]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah the Burrow to Allen comparison in terms of level of play might be apples to oranges... but the very fact that you acknowledge that a Joe Burrow can "click" proves the point.

 

What is it about Allen that you don't think he could do the same?

 

 

Allen's situation is extremely unique historically.

 

That's the point.

 

It seems like you're trying to use analytics to prove Allen will fail.

 

The problem is that analytics require multiple data points. With the uniqueness of Allen's situation, those aren't there.

 

 

 

It’s not though. He was an unrecruited HS QB. Who went to play in JUCO. Then transferred to the Mountain West where he wasn’t dominant and couldn’t complete 60% of his passes. Now he is in the bottom 3rd of the league in most QB metrics. 

 

The only thing unique is that he was drafted in the top 10. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Mango

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/7/2020 at 11:57 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

Neuroelasticity or neuroplasticity does show the brain doesn't fully form until you're about 25 yrs old.

 

The problem is hard-coding. Habits are harder to break when we get just a little older and done something for years. Leftwich couldn’t shake his motion, Tebow couldn’t change his when he got rushed. They were young, old habits came back under pressure. It's not like serving a tennis ball in a static environment, or pitching when you are running and men chasing you.

 

Most people who claim they can change mechanics so easily don’t realize it’s not just mechanics its pressure that causes reversions.

 

You could teach a bunch of 22 yr olds to play QB: mechanics, reading the field, etc.. If all they did was study some of the more erudite types could master plays with mechanics in probably under a year. Full mastery? No, but they would know all of their assignments and mechanics.

 

Then push them on a football field and all of that learning would borderline disappear. They wouldn’t need a year, they would need YEARS to take what they’ve learned and apply it in real time, and most would fail, and this is true of young men who were groomed for years from their youth.

 

It’s the difference between mechanical and natural. it’s the reason why you could teach me to play tennis like Federer but I couldn’t hit it like him, or teach me to hit a baseball like Mike Trout but I couldn’t hit like him in real time, and why the hardest position in the world in sports takes years to be a natural.

 

I have 100% knowledge knows the mechanics, that he knows the plays (all reports say he’s intelligent and hard working), but it’s doing it under pressure.

 

It’s why we celebrate when he throws a screen or swing pass accurately, because we realize he’s not that complete as a player. It’s not rawness alone, it’s bad habits that break down under pressure.

 

 

I don't think you know what you're talking about.

 

Allen's best throws have come under pressure

 

 

Honestly, as much as we want to talk about Allen fixing his mechanics... I don't think mechanics matter at all if you're throwing accurately. Allen has the arm strength to get the ball where he wants it to go regardless of platform. He just needs another offseason and more muscle memory. And yes, he should work on mechanics, too.

[transplantbillsfan]

16 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

It’s not though. He was an unrecruited HS QB. Who went to play in JUCO. Then transferred to the Mountain West where he wasn’t dominant and couldn’t complete 60% of his passes. Now he is in the bottom 3rd of the league in most QB metrics. 

 

The only thing unique is that he was drafted in the top 10. 

 

And that's exactly the point.

 

Before we continue, can we all acknowledge that Allen was going to be drafted in the 1st round regardless of whether the Bills drafted him or not?

 

The truth is, it's highly highly likely he would have been taken by Arizona at 10 because he was reportedly the QB they wanted and they were "heartbroken" they couldn't land him

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/heat-index/2018/05/02/arizona-cardinals-nfl-draft-quarterback-josh-allen-josh-rosen-z/574999002/

If you can acknowledge that, then this is no longer similar to the blunder of drafting EJ Manuel in the 1st round. It will also be an acknowledgement that MULTIPLE scouts and GMs across the NFL scouted Josh Allen, did thorough enough background checks into his history, and viewed him as a 1st round QB prospect.

 

That's something you're clearly dismissive of, but it matters.

 

So, why did multiple GMs and scouts covet a guy hated by the analytics crowd? The answer seems to be exactly what we've been talking about.

 

Can you please find other QBs in the last, I don't know, 30 years similar to him in terms of background and personal history (from unrecruited to JuCo to small D1 school with relatively mediocre stats) who was drafted in the 1st round?

 

While you look and struggle to find those examples, I also challenge you to go back and research Allen's personal history to further help you find those numerous QBs you seem to believe parallel Allen.

 

I hated the Allen pick when we drafted him because of pretty much exactly what you're arguing. No QB like Allen in college has ever gone onto a successful NFL career at QB.

 

That's the analytics argument.

 

As others have said, Josh Allen is the true test of scouting vs analytics.

[BigBillsFan]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're delusional.

 

The Bills got the 1st pick of the 3rd round for Tyrod and Allen would be coveted more than Taylor.

 

You have a very jaded perspective on Allen.

 

Says the guy who predicted he would be the MVP in 2019 when he was ranked 26th out of all QBs.

 

Which is closer to delusion: someone who points out he's 26th or the guy who thinks he's 1st out of 32? And the winner is...

 

Next you told @Mango he was going to be drafted in the top 10. Says who? He was already at #7 and guys slip all of the time. The only guarantee in the draft is that there aren't any guarantees.

 

Your argument, even if valid, is like listing a house 3 bed 2 bath house in rural Buffalo for $5 million dollars and then when someone comes to see it you tell them "Well it was $5 million, we've really dropped the price".

 

Big arm QBs without accuracy have been the disaster of the NFL drafts for decades. It's like a who's who of busts.

 

Last, you showed me some of his best throws under pressure. Sure, they exist, but that's not what neuroplasticity is. It's the reason why Allen is blitzed so frequently by teams like the Ravens and Pats*. He's the 30th worst QB under blitz pressure:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/11/2/20943679/who-should-you-not-blitz

He's 30th against the blitz. 30th. Stats aren't anecdotal videos. Stats show what happens under normative circumstances. He completed 7 of 24 against the blitz against the Ravens.

[Mango]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And that's exactly the point.

 

Before we continue, can we all acknowledge that Allen was going to be drafted in the 1st round regardless of whether the Bills drafted him or not?

 

The truth is, it's highly highly likely he would have been taken by Arizona at 10 because he was reportedly the QB they wanted and they were "heartbroken" they couldn't land him

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/heat-index/2018/05/02/arizona-cardinals-nfl-draft-quarterback-josh-allen-josh-rosen-z/574999002/

If you can acknowledge that, then this is no longer similar to the blunder of drafting EJ Manuel in the 1st round. It will also be an acknowledgement that MULTIPLE scouts and GMs across the NFL scouted Josh Allen, did thorough enough background checks into his history, and viewed him as a 1st round QB prospect.

 

That's something you're clearly dismissive of, but it matters.

 

So, why did multiple GMs and scouts covet a guy hated by the analytics crowd? The answer seems to be exactly what we've been talking about.

 

Can you please find other QBs in the last, I don't know, 30 years similar to him in terms of background and personal history (from unrecruited to JuCo to small D1 school with relatively mediocre stats) who was drafted in the 1st round?

 

While you look and struggle to find those examples, I also challenge you to go back and research Allen's personal history to further help you find those numerous QBs you seem to believe parallel Allen.

 

I hated the Allen pick when we drafted him because of pretty much exactly what you're arguing. No QB like Allen in college has ever gone onto a successful NFL career at QB.

 

That's the analytics argument.

 

As others have said, Josh Allen is the true test of scouting vs analytics.

I am sure there are only a few of top 10 drafted QB’s without any sort of major star on his resume. That was sort of my point. There has been tons of QB’s who have Josh’s resume outside of his draft place. This far in his career his performance has been pretty similar to his journey. 
 

I like Josh. He’s an electric player. He hasn’t been a terribly good (consistent might be a better word) passer and really never has been. He could become one. To this point, given the QB market, he hasn’t earned a 35-40M mil new contract. 

[Meatloaf63]

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

I am sure there are only a few of top 10 drafted QB’s without any sort of major star on his resume. That was sort of my point. There has been tons of QB’s who have Josh’s resume outside of his draft place. This far in his career his performance has been pretty similar to his journey. 
 

I like Josh. He’s an electric player. He hasn’t been a terribly good (consistent might be a better word) passer and really never has been. He could become one. To this point, given the QB market, he hasn’t earned a 35-40M mil new contract. 

Neither has Dak, Wentz, or Goff, but two of those three have got those contracts and the third is about to, and they had much better situations to thrive in yet they all have there flaws. Allen was seen as a project from day one, to ignore the obvious improvements made in the environment he has played in is ridiculous. Terrible offensive line to start with little or no weapons, improved but still substandard o line and weapons second year and Gee what happens with this and experience he improves. Still has receivers who can’t consistently catch, and still has an o line that lets jail break pressure more often than not. Still an inconsistent running game that often put him in a hole. None of the three previously mentioned qbs operate under those conditions. If your eyes can’t tell you what is going on, it must be the neuroplasticity of your brain doesn’t allow it. The real science is people who form bad opinions especially based on statistics  will go to the end of the earth to protect those poor opinions even if their eyes tell them differently....

[BigBillsFan]

On 2/8/2020 at 2:40 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good, point of agreement

 

Even incorrect motions serving a tennis or volleyball in a controlled environment can be hard to break if they're firmly encoded in "muscle memory"

 

I think the point a bunch of people have made is to the "done something for years" bit.  Hopefully we can find a second point of agreement in that it's not the "years" that are the thing so much as the number of repetitions with an incorrect motion.  Example: If I go skiing twice a year with bad technique, my technique is likely not as engrained after 10 years as someone who skiis every weekend in winter for 3 years (it may be harder for me to change for another reason)

 

Athletic technique also naturally has to adjust as one's body grows. 

...

 

Either he will or he won't, where Josh Allen is concerned I don't think it's any good making assumptions.

 

 

 

 

First of all I agree with everything you wrote. I think Allen will improve. I used the extreme example of newbs learning football to show it's not coaching that's 100% the solution, but the person as well.

 

I once helped coach a kid to have Division I technique in 6 months in tennis, he had borderline pro technique instantly. Great athlete, fast learning, incredible hand-eye coordination, etc.. Once it was a match with pressure he couldn't be consistent to save his life. He was overthinking everything. I'm sure he made a great college player by his 3rd year, but that's as far as it could go. Pressure destroys coaching all the time without the pressure cooker of time to solidify it. There has to be time applied to the learning where it feel natural.

 

Every sport requires massive nuance that just can't be coached, it must be done over and over again. It's called the "feel" for the game. I know you know this, but people think if the player gets X coaching they get a Y solution. It's freaking hard to play sports at the highest level.

 

I 100% believe Josh will be better next year. That same confidence does not mean he'll be a $35 million QB or a starter in the NFL. I hope he does. But the mere belief I think he may not makes people go insane. To say he's inaccurate right now does not mean he can't improve.

 

Is that so unreasonable as to say he may not pan out in this system/staff? That he needs a strong run game and patience to see if he's capable? That other players may in fact be better than he is currently? That he didn't "lead" the team to 10-6 but he was basically along for the ride of a great defense? That a 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals isn't really an accomplishment and more of an indictment we had no offense the whole game?

 

All of those questions are objectively true or could reasonably be argued.

 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Says the guy who predicted he would be the MVP in 2019 when he was ranked 26th out of all QBs.

 

Which is closer to delusion: someone who points out he's 26th or the guy who thinks he's 1st out of 32? And the winner is...

 

Next you told @Mango he was going to be drafted in the top 10. Says who? He was already at #7 and guys slip all of the time. The only guarantee in the draft is that there aren't any guarantees.

 

Your argument, even if valid, is like listing a house 3 bed 2 bath house in rural Buffalo for $5 million dollars and then when someone comes to see it you tell them "Well it was $5 million, we've really dropped the price".

 

Big arm QBs without accuracy have been the disaster of the NFL drafts for decades. It's like a who's who of busts.

 

Last, you showed me some of his best throws under pressure. Sure, they exist, but that's not what neuroplasticity is. It's the reason why Allen is blitzed so frequently by teams like the Ravens and Pats*. He's the 30th worst QB under blitz pressure:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/11/2/20943679/who-should-you-not-blitz

He's 30th against the blitz. 30th. Stats aren't anecdotal videos. Stats show what happens under normative circumstances. He completed 7 of 24 against the blitz against the Ravens.

What does “ranked 26th” mean? In what metric? 
 

Also, you’re using old numbers for the rating vs blitz.  Not sure where Allen ended up, but it sure wasn’t in the bottom 5:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NFLMatchup/status/1201530533492199424?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-14770795051179077695.ampproject.net%2F2001281851410%2Fframe.html

 

By the way, the rankings of guys like Tannehill and Brady in the above link should tell you an awful lot about whether or not the ability to play vs a blitz is fluid.

 

For a guy that likes to talk down to others and cite fancy theories like neuroplasticity, you seem to have a LOT of confusion regarding QB development. For example, you want to claim that accuracy (via completion percentage) improves when the game slows down (but not due to mechanics being overhauled), whole simultaneously claiming that passer rating vs the blitz is a trait we should be judging young QBs by.

Have you considered why Buffalo wasn’t good against the blitz? Could it have anything to do with the fact that our best WR in terms of creating separation (Beasley) needs 3+ seconds in a pattern to separate?

 

I really wish there was a NextGen stat that showed “Time to Separate”. I can almost promise that Buffalo’s WR group would rank low. Very low.

 

That said, it remains the QB’s job to beat the blitz. Yes, an OC can do a lot to help them out—run RPOs and zone reads to significantly slow pursuit like Roman does with Jackson, run a TON of PA like SF and LAR—but eventually the DC can send more people than the offense can block. At that point the QB needs to make a play. It’s one of the reasons that Brady was always so good—he could beat the blitz.
 

But this year, Brady was a bottom-5 QB against the blitz; what happened? Two things: he’s getting older, and his WRs aren’t as good anymore. Teams figured out that if you take away Edelman and White early in the route, they don’t have a player that can win one-on-one matchups like Gronk and Amendola used to.

 

It’s nice to know things about training athletes, but it’s equally important to know the game.

[JaCrispy]

I don’t even know what we’re debating anymore...?

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I don’t even know what we’re debating anymore...?

I’m not entirely certain that there’s a central debate. For me, I tend to only chime in when someone says something that’s objectively false—which happens about 2/3 of the time in Allen discussions ? 

[BigBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

What does “ranked 26th” mean? In what metric? 
 

Also, you’re using old numbers for the rating vs blitz.  Not sure where Allen ended up, but it sure wasn’t in the bottom 5:

 

Have you considered why Buffalo wasn’t good against the blitz? Could it have anything to do with the fact that our best WR in terms of creating separation (Beasley) needs 3+ seconds in a pattern to separate?

 

I really wish there was a NextGen stat that showed “Time to Separate”. I can almost promise that Buffalo’s WR group would rank low. Very low.

 

That said, it remains the QB’s job to beat the blitz. Yes, an OC can do a lot to help them out—run RPOs and zone reads to significantly slow pursuit like Roman does with Jackson, run a TON of PA like SF and LAR—but eventually the DC can send more people than the offense can block. At that point the QB needs to make a play. It’s one of the reasons that Brady was always so good—he could beat the blitz.
 

But this year, Brady was a bottom-5 QB against the blitz; what happened? Two things: he’s getting older, and his WRs aren’t as good anymore. Teams figured out that if you take away Edelman and White early in the route, they don’t have a player that can win one-on-one matchups like Gronk and Amendola used to.

 

It’s nice to know things about training athletes, but it’s equally important to know the game.

 

Our stat differential was 2 weeks. Factor in the Ravens game he was in the bottom tier.

 

Why were we so bad on the blitz? OC calls and time of the hand of Allen. Allen ranked 1st for holding the ball longest.

 

There are countless All-22s that show Allen had time to throw on plays with an open player but couldn’t find his receiver. There are also some All-22s that show he had no time to throw. The “no-time” to throw happens to every QB: throwing it away, etc..

 

Last I don’t think our WRs ranked last on time of separation. I think Allen likes more time to process the field and try to create longer throws.

 

Also Brady’s blitz metrics went down not because of Pedelman or White and the lack of Gronk, but he clearly regressed mentally and physically. When he was young his receivers weren’t great and he did just fine against the blitz.

 

I find comical that people can insult me and if I use their same language I’m talking down to them. Like you saying I don’t know the game. When did I accuse anyone of not knowing the game? Your hypocrisy is a bit silly. I used the argument of neuroplasticity not to talk down to people but to point out an element in learning. Did I ever say “if you hillbillies knew about X then talk to me?” Who am I except for another fan, I don't think anyone is more worthy of their own views or opinions. Share yours, I'd love to hear them, I've learned a lot here and other places. I'm just a dad and fan of the Bills. I'm a nobody.

 

Maybe use arguments and you’ll find I’m very polite. If I cite stats and proof I like friendly debate. I’m not threatened by discussion, even disagreement.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Our stat differential was 2 weeks. Factor in the Ravens game he was in the bottom tier.

 

Why were we so bad on the blitz? OC calls and time of the hand of Allen. Allen ranked 1st for holding the ball longest.

 

There are countless All-22s that show Allen had time to throw on plays with an open player but couldn’t find his receiver. There are also some All-22s that show he had no time to throw. The “no-time” to throw happens to every QB: throwing it away, etc..

 

Last I don’t think our WRs ranked last on time of separation. I think Allen likes more time to process the field and try to create longer throws.

 

Also Brady’s blitz metrics went down not because of Pedelman or White and the lack of Gronk, but he clearly regressed mentally and physically. When he was young his receivers weren’t great and he did just fine against the blitz.

 

I find comical that people can insult me and if I use their same language I’m talking down to them. Like you saying I don’t know the game. When did I accuse anyone of not knowing the game? Your hypocrisy is a bit silly. I used the argument of neuroplasticity not to talk down to people but to point out an element in learning. Did I ever say “if you hillbillies knew about X then talk to me?” Who am I except for another fan, I don't think anyone is more worthy of their own views or opinions. Share yours, I'd love to hear them, I've learned a lot here and other places. I'm just a dad and fan of the Bills. I'm a nobody.

 

Maybe use arguments and you’ll find I’m very polite. If I cite stats and proof I like friendly debate. I’m not threatened by discussion, even disagreement.

Allen did not rank 1st for holding the ball longest. His average TT was 2.85–less than the averages of guys like Lamar, Tannehill, Rodgers, Dak, and Cousins:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw
 

And purely looking at time to throw is not a full analysis. You need to look at the causative factor. Was Allen holding the ball too long, or was he scrambling under pressure? If you look at PFR, they answer this question. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

Allen actually had the lowest average pocket time in the entire NFL. Pocket time is defined by PFR as the time between the snap and either the release or the breakdown of the pocket. So no, it’s not Allen just holding the ball. For comparison sake, the others I mentioned above with longer TT’s than Allen all ranked in the top 5 in terms of having the most pocket time. Gigantic difference.

 

And for the record I didn’t insult you. I said that there were things about the game that you didn’t understand. That’s no big deal. There are things about the game that I don’t understand either.

 

Now I did call you out for talking down to others about neuroplasticity as though we don’t know that technique and habit take time to refine. That doesn’t need to be a big thing either, so if you were offended by that then I apologize.

 

And yes, the bigger issues are that the offense hasn’t made it easy on Allen. Look no further than Lamar: he had a league-high 173 called RPOs, and the 3rd most pass attempts out of PA. Allen was 11th and 19th, respectively. Guys like Murray, Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, and evening Wentz had similar high percentages of plays that are designed to give them time and matchup advantages. Why isn’t Allen being given the same opportunity?