Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[JoPoy88]

13 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

 

 

What part don't you think would happen?  Bean offering to trade Allen or someone giving up 2 first round and 2 second round picks?  I think there is a zero chance Bean offers Allen up for trade.  But if he did I would be shocked if he didn't get a couple of 1st round picks for Allen. 

 

Allen is a top 10 pick who is on the cusp of being a top flight QB.  If Rosen was worth a 2nd Allen is worth two 1st round picks.

 

 

The bolded is where we disagree and probably why our opinions differ on the pick compensation. I am still unsure about how close to that cusp Allen is. But if you think he’s there on the brink that’s all good. I certainly hope you’re right.

[CincyBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

 

So you think Allen is worth about as much as Rosen?  I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

But when other GM's consider Allen they will start with the criteria they used in 2018 - awesome physical tools & HUGE upside but also very raw and needs a lot of work.  But they will then factor in the last 2 years where as a starting NFL QB Allen still has those awesome tools & HUGE upside but also demonstrated that his downside is nowhere near as low as they might have worried about in 2018.  This means that IMO they would be willing to part with two 1st round picks to get him today.

 

Let's look at this question another way. Given what we know TODAY, If the NFL had a do over for the 2018 draft I think the Browns & Jets take Allen over Mayfield & Darnold.  I think the Bills still draft Allen over Mayfield & Darnold even if all 3 were available to the Bills at #7.  The interesting question is where would Jackson be picked?

 

And it's not hyperbolic.  I'm stunned that folks think Allen, who was picked #7 in the 1st round of 2018 would FALL in value 2 years later after showing he was at a MINIMUM a starting caliber QB.  To me that's a case of NEGATIVE hyperbole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

Let's look at this question another way. Given what we know TODAY, If the NFL had a do over for the 2018 draft I think the Browns & Jets take Allen over Mayfield & Darnold.  I think the Bills still draft Allen over Mayfield & Darnold even if all 3 were available to the Bills at #7.  The interesting question is where would Jackson be picked?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think Allen and Jackson appear to be the best QB's in that class, but at this point, it's a poor barometer. It's starting to look like the class itself is more like 1999 than 1984. 99 was billed as a generation class. Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper. McNabb had a great deal of success and Culpepper had some, but none of them were "great." McNabb is close, but great? I don't think so.

 

There's no guarantee that ANY of the QB's will work out long term. I would say Allen and Jackson have the best shot, but they both have some red flags. Obviously Jackson has accomplished more and would garner more in a trade than Allen, but there are serious questions about his longevity.

 

I will say I'd rather have Allen than Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. 

 

[Billl]

If the draft was done again, Lamar would go first.  I don't think there would be any more of a consensus after that today than there was back then.  You can pick the other three out of a hat.

 

Allen would likely fetch a late first rounder or early second today, IMO.  Rosen might bring a half full bag of footballs.

[Billl]

48 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think Allen and Jackson appear to be the best QB's in that class, but at this point, it's a poor barometer. It's starting to look like the class itself is more like 1999 than 1984. 99 was billed as a generation class. Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper. McNabb had a great deal of success and Culpepper had some, but none of them were "great." McNabb is close, but great? I don't think so.

 

There's no guarantee that ANY of the QB's will work out long term. I would say Allen and Jackson have the best shot, but they both have some red flags. Obviously Jackson has accomplished more and would garner more in a trade than Allen, but there are serious questions about his longevity.

 

I will say I'd rather have Allen than Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. 

 

Why would Jackson have more longevity issues than Josh?  Allen has been injured constantly throughout his playing career.  He broke his collarbone in high school.  He broke his right clavicle in 7 places in his first college start.  He missed multiple games his last year in college due to a sprained shoulder.  He missed multiple games his rookie season, and he got knocked out of the Patriots game this year.

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Why would Jackson have more longevity issues than Josh?  Allen has been injured constantly throughout his playing career.  He broke his collarbone in high school.  He broke his right clavicle in 7 places in his first college start.  He missed multiple games his last year in college due to a sprained shoulder.  He missed multiple games his rookie season, and he got knocked out of the Patriots game this year.

I acknowledged that they BOTH have issues, and I would consider longevity one of them with Josh. He's got to get better as a passer because he takes too many shots when he takes off. The problem is that it's a major strength for Allen right now, so until his passing improves, he's gotta keep running. I'm really looking at year 3 as a big season for Allen. He took a big step in 2019. If he takes another big step, we're on to something. If he remains stagnant or only slightly improves, I'll be concerned.

 

Seems like you're nitpicking Bill.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

What's your purpose in asking this question?  It was asked in response to someone talking about this year's current top QB prospect, Joe Burrow, which might imply that you were trying to compare Allen to Burrow by asking what folks think Allen's current draft value would be?

 

I don't think that's a useful metric if that's what you're trying to get at.  Here's why: No team drafts a QB high in the 1st unless they feel he's got potential to become The Man, their franchise QB.  Therefore, if the drafting team gives up after only 2 years and makes him available in a trade, they've decided he's 100% not the guy they thought he was.  Simply the fact that the team that drafted him and works with him every day makes him available devalues him. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

(snippity)

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Well....I can't speak for chess masters, but the latest and greatest on neurological development now seems to have reached a consensus that the human brain isn't fully developed until the mid 20s, with developmental changes especially pronounced in the prefrontal cortex (governs judgement and decision making - AHEM Josh Lateral?).

 

Here's a popular piece I found on a quick search  that seems like a reasonable discussion of this.

 

Bottom line, I believe current neuroscience on human brain development would overall disagree.  But an additional factor is the individual.  Josh literally was still physically developing during college.  One article said he didn't have to shave until his Wyoming Sr year and his coaches and teammates gave him crap about it.  Does that mean his brain is still in the same stage of neuroelasticity as an 19 yr old who hit his growth spurt at age 16-17?   I don't think enough is known about this, but if the growth plates in the bones are still open I wouldn't bet against development in an organ, the brain, that's said to be still developing 6-10 yrs after the bone growth plates close.

[BigBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well....I can't speak for chess masters, but the latest and greatest on neurological development now seems to have reached a consensus that the human brain isn't fully developed until the mid 20s, with developmental changes especially pronounced in the prefrontal cortex (governs judgement and decision making - AHEM Josh Lateral?).

 

Here's a popular piece I found on a quick search  that seems like a reasonable discussion of this.

 

Bottom line, I believe current neuroscience on human brain development would overall disagree.  But an additional factor is the individual.  Josh literally was still physically developing during college.  One article said he didn't have to shave until his Wyoming Sr year and his coaches and teammates gave him crap about it.  Does that mean his brain is still in the same stage of neuroelasticity as an 19 yr old who hit his growth spurt at age 16-17?   I don't think enough is known about this, but if the growth plates in the bones are still open I wouldn't bet against development in an organ, the brain, that's said to be still developing 6-10 yrs after the bone growth plates close.

 

Neuroelasticity or neuroplasticity does show the brain doesn't fully form until you're about 25 yrs old.

 

The problem is hard-coding. Habits are harder to break when we get just a little older and done something for years. Leftwich couldn’t shake his motion, Tebow couldn’t change his when he got rushed. They were young, old habits came back under pressure. It's not like serving a tennis ball in a static environment, or pitching when you are running and men chasing you.

 

Most people who claim they can change mechanics so easily don’t realize it’s not just mechanics its pressure that causes reversions.

 

You could teach a bunch of 22 yr olds to play QB: mechanics, reading the field, etc.. If all they did was study some of the more erudite types could master plays with mechanics in probably under a year. Full mastery? No, but they would know all of their assignments and mechanics.

 

Then push them on a football field and all of that learning would borderline disappear. They wouldn’t need a year, they would need YEARS to take what they’ve learned and apply it in real time, and most would fail, and this is true of young men who were groomed for years from their youth.

 

It’s the difference between mechanical and natural. it’s the reason why you could teach me to play tennis like Federer but I couldn’t hit it like him, or teach me to hit a baseball like Mike Trout but I couldn’t hit like him in real time, and why the hardest position in the world in sports takes years to be a natural.

 

I have 100% knowledge knows the mechanics, that he knows the plays (all reports say he’s intelligent and hard working), but it’s doing it under pressure.

 

It’s why we celebrate when he throws a screen or swing pass accurately, because we realize he’s not that complete as a player. It’s not rawness alone, it’s bad habits that break down under pressure.

 

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, Billl said:

If the draft was done again, Lamar would go first.  I don't think there would be any more of a consensus after that today than there was back then.  You can pick the other three out of a hat.

 

Allen would likely fetch a late first rounder or early second today, IMO.  Rosen might bring a half full bag of footballs.

Disappointing slot corners fetch late firsts these days. ? A potential franchise QB that is a proven dual-threat that can score TDs from anywhere on the field probably nets a top 15 pick...I mean, Rosen brought a late 2nd in return and he showed absolutely nothing.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

Neuroelasticity or neuroplasticity does show the brain doesn't fully form until you're about 25 yrs old.

 

Good, point of agreement

 

Quote

The problem is hard-coding. Habits are harder to break when we get just a little older and done something for years. Leftwich couldn’t shake his motion, Tebow couldn’t change his when he got rushed. They were young, old habits came back under pressure. It's not like serving a tennis ball in a static environment, or pitching when you are running and men chasing you.

 

Even incorrect motions serving a tennis or volleyball in a controlled environment can be hard to break if they're firmly encoded in "muscle memory"

 

I think the point a bunch of people have made is to the "done something for years" bit.  Hopefully we can find a second point of agreement in that it's not the "years" that are the thing so much as the number of repetitions with an incorrect motion.  Example: If I go skiing twice a year with bad technique, my technique is likely not as engrained after 10 years as someone who skiis every weekend in winter for 3 years (it may be harder for me to change for another reason)

 

Athletic technique also naturally has to adjust as one's body grows.  Because Josh was a 3-sport athlete in HS who did not play football year round, travel to football camps, or utilize a QB coach until the draft, and because he didn't even finish growing until college, some people (including, I think, the Bills) believe that his throwing motion is able to be more plastic.  It is felt to be less hard coded because it had fewer repetitions with the poor technique. 

 

Quote

Most people who claim they can change mechanics so easily don’t realize it’s not just mechanics its pressure that causes reversions.

 

I think you'll find that most people here realize that, and many of us were highly skeptical that Josh could improve his technique for this reason - because we do realize this.  It's the reason so many of us were "Wrong Josh"ers

 

But the bottom line if you look at the passer rating grids on NextGen Stats, is that Josh did improve, specifically in the short and intermediate throws that were a problem to him last year. 

 

So now the question is can he take another step, or will he plateau? 

 

Quote

You could teach a bunch of 22 yr olds to play QB: mechanics, reading the field, etc.. If all they did was study some of the more erudite types could master plays with mechanics in probably under a year. Full mastery? No, but they would know all of their assignments and mechanics.

 

Then push them on a football field and all of that learning would borderline disappear. They wouldn’t need a year, they would need YEARS to take what they’ve learned and apply it in real time, and most would fail, and this is true of young men who were groomed for years from their youth.

 

But we agree this is NOT Josh's situation, right?  He has not been placed on a football field for the first time at age 23.  So why use an extreme and inapplicable analogy?

 

The bottom line is that Josh was able to make measurable, chartable improvements in completions between 1st and 2nd year.  The efforts to improve appear to have been focused on the "gimmees" - the short and intermediate throws that an NFL QB must make.  It remains to be seen whether he'll continue to improve as he improves his ability to read the defense, recognize the blitz and know what his "answers" are - something all young QB must work on.

 

Either he will or he won't, where Josh Allen is concerned I don't think it's any good making assumptions.

 

 

[Meatloaf63]

On 2/7/2020 at 10:48 AM, BigBillsFan said:

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

When did Brees’s great leap happen? In his first 3 years? Yeah I didn’t think so.... and Burrows has not proven how good he will be at reading an NFL defense that has game planned for him. We don’t even have a chance for him and he’s going to Cincinnati, who knows what will happen to him there...

[BigBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

When did Brees’s great leap happen? In his first 3 years? Yeah I didn’t think so.... and Burrows has not proven how good he will be at reading an NFL defense that has game planned for him. We don’t even have a chance for him and he’s going to Cincinnati, who knows what will happen to him there...

 

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.

 

Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.

 

How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

[thebandit27]

18 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.

 

Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.

 

How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

Brees didn’t have a mechanical issue?

 

Tell that to Tom House.

[YattaOkasan]

27 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.

 

Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.

 

How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

Not all of these are throwing mechanics but a lot are. 
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1254429-every-nfl-starting-quarterbacks-worst-habit#slide8

 

[oldmanfan]

Allen needs to work on pre-snap reads.  Quicker decisions will allow him that split second or so to set up and throw.  When he has time to set up his mechanics overall are fine.

[BigBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Brees didn’t have a mechanical issue?

 

Tell that to Tom House.

 

Yes Tom House had to completely remake Brees footwork, throwing habits, and shoulder angles. This is crazy.

 

This is getting funnier by the moment. Incremental improvements are not full scale mechanics right? I mean you do understand Brees had amazing mechanics coming out of college right? This is just crazy.

Edited February 9, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Yes Tom House had to completely remake Brees footwork, throwing habits, and shoulder angles. This is crazy.

 

This is getting funnier by the moment. Incremental improvements are not full scale mechanics right? I mean you do understand Brees had amazing mechanics coming out of college right? This is just crazy.

During the last 24 months, a lot of people have put a LOT of words in my mouth regarding Allen, but this post may be the absolute worst I’ve seen.

 

Crazy is when you go noodles and read waaaaaaaaasy too far into a post.

 

The reason for Brees’ METEORIC rise in accuracy from college to becoming the most accurate passer in NFL history was an overhaul of his mechanics between seasons 2 and 3. He’s talked about it at great length.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.

Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.

How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

Drew Brees completion percentage the second season he started was 57.6%, OK, so how about you get off your "better completion percentage than Josh ever had as a starter" high hoss.  Do you really think it's a big deal out of 60.8 (Brees 1st season starting, 2nd season in league) being so much better than 58.8% 2nd season in league? 

 

In that second season, Brees was generating a mighty 191.6 yds of passing offense per game.  That was his 3rd year in the league, and afterwards the Chargers drafted a QB because they were concerned that Brees wasn't going to develop as they had expected.

 

And yes, part of that development was mechanical:  Tom House is well known to have worked with Drew Brees in the 2004 off season (between Brees 2nd and 3rd seasons as a starter). Brees in the past has given that credit for his 3rd season improvement (in completion percentage, he was still averaging only 211 ypg): "For more than 20 years, House and his staff collected data on the throwing motion of elite quarterbacks such as Dan Marino and Joe Montana without knowing how to use it. Then in 2004, San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron recommended that Brees see his friend House to help with some struggles."

 

"Massive mechanical issues"?

 

This is getting a bit much.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Drew Brees completion percentage the second season he started was 57.6%, OK, so how about you get off your "better completion percentage than Josh ever had as a starter" high hoss.  Do you really think it's a big deal out of 60.8 (Brees 1st season starting, 2nd season in league) being so much better than 58.8% 2nd season in league? 

 

In that second season, Brees was generating a mighty 191.6 yds of passing offense per game.  That was his 3rd year in the league, and afterwards the Chargers drafted a QB because they were concerned that Brees wasn't going to develop as they had expected.

 

And yes, part of that development was mechanical:  Tom House is well known to have worked with Drew Brees in the 2004 off season (between Brees 2nd and 3rd seasons as a starter). Brees in the past has given that credit for his 3rd season improvement (in completion percentage, he was still averaging only 211 ypg): "For more than 20 years, House and his staff collected data on the throwing motion of elite quarterbacks such as Dan Marino and Joe Montana without knowing how to use it. Then in 2004, San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron recommended that Brees see his friend House to help with some struggles."

 

"Massive mechanical issues"?

 

This is getting a bit much.

Moreover, if Brees truly did have “amazing mechanics” coming out of Purdue, then why was he a career 61% passer in college?