Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Big Buff]

Pass accuracy was a problem when we were looking to draft him...... still cant throw 20 yards down field. Who cares if he can throw 80..... Bills fan to Bills fans. Time to move on.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Big Buff

[Meatloaf63]

19 minutes ago, Big Buff said:

Pass accuracy was a problem when we were looking to draft him...... still cant throw 20 yards down field. Who cares if he can throw 80..... Bills fan to Bills fans. Time to move on.

Ok what was your last name you posted under?

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/26/2020 at 8:03 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen was raw because he didn't attend those elite QB camps and he didn't benefit from top notch QB coaching until he was preparing to be drafted.  I bet that between the age of 12 - 22 Allen threw a lot fewer passes, in any capacity (games, drills, practice, 7 on 7's, camps) then Jackson or Mahomes did.  Allen is a true rarity among young QB's today - he's still learning how to play the position.

 

I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).

 

I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.

 

Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.

 

What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.

 

Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.

[CincyBillsFan]

56 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).

 

I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.

 

Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.

 

What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.

 

Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.

 

I disagree completely with this.  It used to be the norm in the NFL for QB's not to reach their full capabilities until their late 20's. In fact the vast majority of QB's had their greatest improvement AFTER they turned 23 as a consequence of their receiving proper coaching combined with increased reps & game experience. 

 

What has changed in the last decade is that the advance training available to some QB's in their youth enables them to hit the ground running in the NFL.  Good for them. But this in no way precludes those QB's who for whatever reason didn't benefit from advanced training in their early years from learning how to play QB at an elite level.  Allen is a THROWBACK an old school young QB who will follow a conventional path that was common in the 1970's & 1980's.

 

Just this year you saw Joe Burrow do exactly this going from being an average QB at 22 to being a QB that had the single greatest season in the history of college football at 23. 

 

If you look at Allen's improvement vector from his start as an unrecruited HS QB who spent a year in Jr College to a stint at Wyoming then a top 10 pick of the Bills, you can see that he's more then able to get better as he's exposed to better coaching & experiences.  This is a guy who as a rookie in the NFL was thrown to the wolves on a horrendous offense yet has by EVERY measure significantly improved his QB skills from those first few games to now.  The trajectory in his improvement from 18 to 23 had been robustly UP.  And there is no rational reason to believe that it doesn't continue for the next few years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by CincyBillsFan

[BigBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I disagree completely with this....

 

If you look at Allen's improvement vector from his start as an unrecruited HS QB who spent a year in Jr College to a stint at Wyoming then a top 10 pick of the Bills, you can see that he's more then able to get better as he's exposed to better coaching & experiences.  This is a guy who as a rookie in the NFL was thrown to the wolves on a horrendous offense yet has by EVERY measure significantly improved his QB skills from those first few games to now.  The trajectory in his improvement from 18 to 23 had been robustly UP.  And there is no rational reason to believe that it doesn't continue for the next few years.

 

 

You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.

Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.

 

It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.

 

It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.

 

The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.

 

Put it another way, if you could draft Burrow or Allen in 2020 who do you think GMs would pick 1st and why? It's Burrow all day long because he has a history of playing the position with better mechanics longer, even if he didn't shine until his senior year but when he did he lit the place up.

 

Yes Allen's trajectory is up, but going from the bottom to the bottom 1/3rd isn't a vast difference just yet. Honestly I'll be happy if he's 15th in the league with his ability to run and improvise.

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.

Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.

 

It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.

 

It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.

 

The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.

 

Put it another way, if you could draft Burrow or Allen in 2020 who do you think GMs would pick 1st and why? It's Burrow all day long because he has a history of playing the position with better mechanics longer, even if he didn't shine until his senior year but when he did he lit the place up.

 

Yes Allen's trajectory is up, but going from the bottom to the bottom 1/3rd isn't a vast difference just yet. Honestly I'll be happy if he's 15th in the league with his ability to run and improvise.

 

I'm an Ohio State fan and Burrow only played in mop up time in 2016.  Those stats are irrelevant.  The bottom line is that he couldn't win the OSU job, was average his first year at LSU and then blossomed into one of the best QB prospects to come out of college in the last 20 years.  And he did this AFTER the age of 21.

 

And for the record Allen's path to being an NFL QB was NOT "bad".  He went from unrecruited HS player to a starter at Wyoming. He then went from Wyoming to being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft.  He then became a starting NFL QB in week 2 as a rookie.  He then improved his game significantly since becoming a starting NFL QB.  THERE'S NOTHING BAD ABOUT THIS!

 

My point was that Allen didn't enjoy the advantages of a lot of young QB's with respect to high level coaching during his early years of football.  And as long as you have the mental & physical tools - which Allen has in abundance - all you need to overcome this is a couple of years of high level coaching & experiences.  He's getting that and he's improving by leaps & bounds. 

 

My point is also that he's following a more traditional path for QB development.  This is a path that was the norm for the majority of young NFL QB's from the 1960's - 1990's. 

 

As for your hypothetical question, if I didn't know what I know now - that Allen has demonstrated that he can be an NFL QB - and I was asked to choose between Allen coming out of college in 2018 and Burrow today I would pick Burrow.  Who wouldn't. 

 

The real question is which of these 2 QB's do you think is more likely to be a top 5 NFL QB 5 years from now?  My answer would be Allen because he's already PROVEN he can play at an NFL level. Burrow still has to prove this.  And for the record I think Burrow is a fantastic QB prospect and will thrive in the NFL.

 

Bottom line is your pessimism about Allen is unwarranted.  Your declaration that Allen can't get better is flat out wrong and has been disproved by Allen's performance to date. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'm an Ohio State fan and Burrow only played in mop up time in 2016.  Those stats are irrelevant.  The bottom line is that he couldn't win the OSU job, was average his first year at LSU and then blossomed into one of the best QB prospects to come out of college in the last 20 years.  And he did this AFTER the age of 21....

 

The real question is which of these 2 QB's do you think is more likely to be a top 5 NFL QB 5 years from now?  My answer would be Allen because he's already PROVEN he can play at an NFL level. Burrow still has to prove this.  And for the record I think Burrow is a fantastic QB prospect and will thrive in the NFL.

 

Bottom line is your pessimism about Allen is unwarranted.  Your declaration that Allen can't get better is flat out wrong and has been disproved by Allen's performance to date.

 

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

[Bsblguy]

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

[Billl]

4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

 

Burrow to me has a high floor. I think he could come in and play as well as the guy he is replacing - Dalton - immediately. Where his ceiling is would be a fair question though in my book. Think it is probably a top 10 QB but not a top 5 guy. 

[K-9]

4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

Neuroelasticity.    Well done. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

You will be amazed by his video. 

 

You will be even more amazed at the total lack of diversity in the coverage schemes his offense played against. 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.

[oldmanfan]

If we take coaching as comparable to teaching, it’s interesting that someone above has claimed you can’t learn much between ages 18 and the early/mid 20’s.  Guess we might as well close all the colleges, grad schools, medical schools, etc., etc.

 

Allen progressed this past year.  There is no neuroelastic reason to assume he won’t continue to learn and progress.  We’ll see how he does.

 

And I teach both neuroanatomy and physiology by the way.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

[LSHMEAB]

23 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second. POSSIBLY a first.

Edited February 8, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second.

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

 

Just now, JoPoy88 said:

not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

 

What part don't you think would happen?  Bean offering to trade Allen or someone giving up 2 first round and 2 second round picks?  I think there is a zero chance Bean offers Allen up for trade.  But if he did I would be shocked if he didn't get a couple of 1st round picks for Allen. 

 

Allen is a top 10 pick who is on the cusp of being a top flight QB.  If Rosen was worth a 2nd Allen is worth two 1st round picks.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

[Trogdor]

6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

Mayfield definitely had an off year, but he looked pretty good against the Bills. I'm not sure how much of his struggles were him and how much was Kitchens.