Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Maybe it's actually Allen who elevated Brown and Beasley more than the other way around.

 

Maybe those guys were upgrades, but along with believing "Allen's not there yet," the more relevant discussion relative to a young raw QB who's still improving is that the team isn't there yet.

 

And what's that old cliche...? A Tight End is a young QB's best friend?

 

Who was Allen's #1 Tight End and where did he rank in terms of drop rates?

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

you have to know trans, thats just who he is. i don't know if he is right or wrong this time but, lets hope he is right.

[BringBackOrton]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And what's your point?

 

Were they universally condemned?

 

One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury.

 

Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades.

Peyton Manning is an All Time Great, let’s compare his last season with Josh’s! Then we can say he’s better than Peyton AND Brady!

[thebandit27]

6 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

The interesting thing about your statement is that it’s actually exactly how the Rams and Chiefs approached things with their young QBs.

 

Now obviously the QB is going to have to be good regardless, but the fact that Mahomes has had an elite WR, RB, TE, and another very good WR is definitely a component of why he’s been so dominant. It’s even more evident with regard to Goff; McVay got that job and immediately brought in Cooks, Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, Reynolds, & Higbee.

 

I would love to see Buffalo make a similar effort with Allen. Make his targets so good that he has literally no excuse for not getting the job done.

Edited January 25, 2020 by thebandit27

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

 

I would settle for ONE elite WR, a solid TE and a second solid RB.  At present we have one good WR, a 2nd competent WR, a below average TE group & one good RB.

 

Now don't get me wrong I think Knox will develop into a solid TE.  But during the last season he was below average and had to many drops and ran some poor routes.  As for Kroft & Smith.................

 

Just look at the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs field an elite WR, an elite TE, very good 2nd & 3rd WR's and a solid RB.  The 49's feature an elite TE, an elite RB and a very good WR.

 

It's not being a fan boy to hope the Bills can have at least ONE elite skills player on the offense.  Or put another way I am 100% convinced that if the Bills had an elite TE Allen would have been well above 60% in completion % this season.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2020 by CincyBillsFan

[Zerovoltz]

On 1/22/2020 at 9:39 AM, pop gun said:

Who was Manning throwing to? Huge difference between Allens weapons and Mannings.

Manning also had some guy named Bruce Ariens as QB coach.

 

Marvin Harrison 115 rec on 184 targets

Edgerrin James 62 rec on 82 targets, oh and he rushed for 1553 yards

2 decent veteren TE Dilger/Pollard 74 rec on 92 targets 

 

Manning also had 72 more pass attempts than Allen. You can add about 500 more pass yards to Allens total if you extrapolate everything out. 

 

If you do add all the numbers up for Manning and add the 500 more passing yards to Allen their total numbers look quite similar despite the HUGE difference surrounding them in talent.

 

Manning      4135 pass yards 73 rush yards 28 total TDs 15 int GWD 7 

Allen             3600 pass yards 510 rush yards 29 total TDs 9 int GWD 5

 

Keep poopooing Allen and he will keep you haters looking like the fools you are!

 

The major flaw in this comparison is that Manning gets 500 more pass yards becasue the Colts were much more efficient on offense.  They converted that 3rd and 8 a couple times a game that kept a drive alive and led to more attempts and points.  This board has been breaking down "Completion PCT" since Allen was drafted.  He isn't efficient enough.  The Bills offense isn't efficient enough.  You get bigger and better stats when you move the chains consistantly due to more oppertunity.  As I pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills had the 8th highest number of possesions in the NFL this year.  They scored 1.66 points per possesion.  That is a poor number.  The Bills made plenty of big plays.  Allen had a good number of long passes and big runs.  He was however inefficient.  NFL football games are typically settled by margins less than 7 points most weeks.  The difference in winning more often than not, is being efficient.  Converting a few more third downs.  Executing in the red zone ONE more time than usual, keeps drives going...means a FG instead of punt and means TD instead of FG more often.  You can break down the numbers for Allen a million different ways, and compare him to every QB that played in the last 20 years and you can find numbers to make him look like he's on a path to the HOF, and you can find numbers that tell you JP Losman was better.  .....and it doesn't matter.  Doing the small things in a game, more often, is what needs to happen.  Allen needs to be better...he's the biggest part of the Bills being more efficient.....better players, play calls and all that are part of it too, but it's mostly Allen. 

 

On 1/22/2020 at 1:46 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

This is an overly simple way to look at it.  Brown had a very good season.....he was used to his AND his QB's strength....long routes, big arm QB....good combination.  Beasely had a statitstically good season, but he had more targets than he's ever had so even with a rather low catch %, his stats look good.  You say "it's the QB obviously"  .....that's a double edged sword isn't it?  Brown benefitted from Allen as QB....especially compared to noodle arm Flacco.  Allen maximizes what Brown does best.  Beasly's stats are target driven...his catch PCT was way low....he runs mostly short routes...Allen isn't "ACCURATE".....alot of his throws are not right on the numbers short...meaning Beasley had alot of tough balls to catch, thrown his way and thus they didn't make the connections at a very high rate...especially for a guy who is your short route/slant guy.  .....(PS, Beasley is a very good slot WR...his catch PCT is very good through his career....higher than Edelmans even.  IF he were in NE, he'd be a media darling)  You can argue both of these guys are very good pieces for Allen to have around......your weapons, especially Beasley, probalby made Allen look better than he might have otherwise.  You need better TE and probably a big post up type WR that presents allen a big tall target....again, the help maximize what Allen does best. 

 

 

On 1/22/2020 at 6:54 PM, oldmanfan said:

If we assume that 60% is the magic, holy grail of completion percentage that Allen must hit, here’s some math:

 

Number of attempts:  461

Number of completions:  271

Number if additional completions needed for 60%:  4 (rounds off to 60%)

 

So this entire obsession with his completion percentage comes down to 4 plays over the season.  So 4 better passes, 4 less drops, 4 less throwaways.  However, this angst comes down to 4 plays, or 0.25 plays a game.

 

Just food for thought.

 

See my first comment in this post.  Your offense has to be more efficient.  Trying to pin this on .25 plays a game is being way too selective and ignoring the problem.  Offense, including, the QB, must become more efficient....I'm probalby giving what would be considered and overly simple response here....but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

The major flaw in this comparison is that Manning gets 500 more pass yards becasue the Colts were much more efficient on offense.  They converted that 3rd and 8 a couple times a game that kept a drive alive and led to more attempts and points.  This board has been breaking down "Completion PCT" since Allen was drafted.  He isn't efficient enough.  The Bills offense isn't efficient enough.  You get bigger and better stats when you move the chains consistantly due to more oppertunity.  As I pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills had the 8th highest number of possesions in the NFL this year.  They scored 1.66 points per possesion.  That is a poor number.  The Bills made plenty of big plays.  Allen had a good number of long passes and big runs.  He was however inefficient.  NFL football games are typically settled by margins less than 7 points most weeks.  The difference in winning more often than not, is being efficient.  Converting a few more third downs.  Executing in the red zone ONE more time than usual, keeps drives going...means a FG instead of punt and means TD instead of FG more often.  You can break down the numbers for Allen a million different ways, and compare him to every QB that played in the last 20 years and you can find numbers to make him look like he's on a path to the HOF, and you can find numbers that tell you JP Losman was better.  .....and it doesn't matter.  Doing the small things in a game, more often, is what needs to happen.  Allen needs to be better...he's the biggest part of the Bills being more efficient.....better players, play calls and all that are part of it too, but it's mostly Allen. 

 

 

This is an overly simple way to look at it.  Brown had a very good season.....he was used to his AND his QB's strength....long routes, big arm QB....good combination.  Beasely had a statitstically good season, but he had more targets than he's ever had so even with a rather low catch %, his stats look good.  You say "it's the QB obviously"  .....that's a double edged sword isn't it?  Brown benefitted from Allen as QB....especially compared to noodle arm Flacco.  Allen maximizes what Brown does best.  Beasly's stats are target driven...his catch PCT was way low....he runs mostly short routes...Allen isn't "ACCURATE".....alot of his throws are not right on the numbers short...meaning Beasley had alot of tough balls to catch, thrown his way and thus they didn't make the connections at a very high rate...especially for a guy who is your short route/slant guy.  .....(PS, Beasley is a very good slot WR...his catch PCT is very good through his career....higher than Edelmans even.  IF he were in NE, he'd be a media darling)  You can argue both of these guys are very good pieces for Allen to have around......your weapons, especially Beasley, probalby made Allen look better than he might have otherwise.  You need better TE and probably a big post up type WR that presents allen a big tall target....again, the help maximize what Allen does best. 

 

 

 

See my first comment in this post.  Your offense has to be more efficient.  Trying to pin this on .25 plays a game is being way too selective and ignoring the problem.  Offense, including, the QB, must become more efficient....I'm probalby giving what would be considered and overly simple response here....but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

I really don’t care what a Chiefs fan has to say, but my comment was directed towards those who obsess over the 60% completion number.  It is statistically meaningless vs. 58.8%.

 

And the entire offense needs to continue improving.  Everyone gets that.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

..but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

I’m on board with most of what you’re saying but 6-10 is a huge amount. That would probably be >100 more yards per game on the season. I think it’s actually more like 1-2 more plays a game. 1 more FG per game is ~0.25 more points per drive by my calculations. That probably puts us in the average average range

[DuckyBoys]

He needs to continue to get better vs the blitz and learning to take the easier third down completion to extend drives vs always taking the big play.  There needs to be better options around him.  The completion % obsession is nuts.  Carolina turned Cam Newton into a near 70% passer   Cam didnt get any better with accuracy and ball placement  They simply changed the focus of the passing game to throwing to backs and te.  Do the Bills really want to coach their qb into being Capt Checkdown?  Its a fine line .  I'd prefer they get better talent to allow him to throw vertically even more .  None of these players ever carried their team offensively

Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Kyle Boller

 

 

Allen is the whole offense right now

[Billl]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And what's your point?

 

Were they universally condemned?

 

One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury.

 

Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades.

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

[Coach Tuesday]

<ignores 100+ page TSW thread for weeks>
 

<decides to check in on it, sees someone comparing Josh Allen to Mike Glennon>
 

<closes web browser>

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I happen to watch a lot of football. It's the last sport I watch a lot of as I get older. Glennon had a better arm than Allen in terms of mechanics, accuracy and pedigree in college.

 

Ok, Whoa.  Mechanics and accuracy I get.  I in fact agree with this, since Allen is widely acknowledged to need work on his mechanics and that affects his accuracy at times.

 

But "pedigree in college"?  Since when is that an appropriate metric for QB arm quality?  There's too much impact from the quality of the other players, the quality of the competition, etc.

 

8 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I agree with you QB inflation is real, but getting caught up into it is false. As QB inflation for the top prospects become more of a set standard, so do the amount that fall that aren't as prized: Prescott, Watson as examples.

 

There might have been no way that Allen stayed on the board past the 1st but we've seen this before and it's hard to have a raw QB typically pan out. I can't think of the last raw QB that entered the NFL with the expectations of a 1st rounder and turned out ok. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm open to the contrary.

 

Let's get the elephant in the room out of the way first:  Allen was a very raw prospect and he may not pan out.  We both agree there.

 

I don't want to get drawn into the QB comparison game.   It's a wrong road IMO; for every genuine top-notch NFL starter I could point out as a possible comparator, there are in fact 4 who had similar metrics by some criterion and who flamed out, for various reasons.

 

The thing is, that's even true of guys who "check all the boxes" in college - have great "pedigrees", great mechanics and accuracy.  Overall, even in the first round, something like 4 out of 5 QB drafted do not succeed, and that's using a pretty low-bar definition of success.  Rosen is kind of a case in point.  He was supposed to be the most "NFL ready" of the bunch with superior accuracy and the ability to make all the throws, smart guy, etc etc.  And he may yet succeed but the Magic 8 Ball isn't high on his odds right now.

 

The promising thing to me about Allen is that the Bills did what they had to do to trade up and draft him.  They decided who they wanted and they pulled the trigger.  The problem with the Bills approach to QB, historically, has been that they too seldom pulled the trigger and never made the sort of "neutral thinking, here we are, what do we need to do?" pre-draft moves that Beane put together.  Instead we had whining from Nix about how "if you need to take a QB, you need to draft him earlier than his value" (presumably after he tried to wait until that QB hit the value he had on him and got burned) and from Whaley about how the Bills were "stuck in QB purgatory" (drafting too low to get a good one, but too bad at the position to contend)

 

I can't tell if Allen will be our guy, but I can tell you that if the Bills stay with the same approach of "evaluate, decide who you want, and do what you need to to get him", the odds are much better that the Bills will get that guy than they were previously.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end.

 

Well, that does seem to be the Houston/KC/SF approach and since two of those teams are in the Superbowl while our GM acknowledges he "didn't do enough" and "even with the cap limitations, I could have done more and it hurt Allen" with regard to our 2018 offense.....I'm not saying that'd turn Allen into Mahomes or Watson, but I'd kind of like to see us do the experiment.

 

Does that make me the finest fanboy here?

 

[Billl]

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

Oh you “came across” that huh? While looking for what just out of curiosity? ? 

 

I can’t claim to be an apologist, but there’s definitely parts of that I disagree with; namely the idea that he can’t throw touch passes and needs to speed up his drops. He’s also improved areas such as coming off his first read too early and failing to set his feet.

 

I suppose I’m more curious as to what the point of posting a pre-draft evaluation is? I mean, the implication appears to be that he’s no better now than he was then, but that would be a ridiculous assertion to even to biggest of anti-Allen folks.

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Oh you “came across” that huh? While looking for what just out of curiosity? ? 

 

I can’t claim to be an apologist, but there’s definitely parts of that I disagree with; namely the idea that he can’t throw touch passes and needs to speed up his drops. He’s also improved areas such as coming off his first read too early and failing to set his feet.

 

I suppose I’m more curious as to what the point of posting a pre-draft evaluation is? I mean, the implication appears to be that he’s no better now than he was then, but that would be a ridiculous assertion to even to biggest of anti-Allen folks.

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

56% completion:  True

Scattershot passer:  True

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Here's another pre-draft evaluation I found:

 

"Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm."

 

The trick is that this isn't about Josh Allen. Do you know who this is describing?

Edited January 25, 2020 by HappyDays

[oldmanfan]

33 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

First drop the apologies horsecrap.  Second, I think the above description fit his first year better but he improved in all these areas his second year.

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's another pre-draft evaluation I found:

 

"Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm."

 

The trick is that this isn't about Josh Allen. Do you know who this is describing?

My guess would be Mahomes.  If so, it’s safe to assume that he overcame them all pretty much immediately (other than his tendency to sail the deep ball on occasion).

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

56% completion:  True

Scattershot passer:  True

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

Except for the parts that aren’t true like the ones that I pointed out. And he wasn’t a 56% passer last year.

 

And he doesn’t miss on checkdowns and screens. His problem is that he doesn’t take his check down often enough.

But once again, it’s clear that you’re really only interested in talking about what he does poorly, and completely ignore anything that resembles a sign of improvement.

 

I don’t know why, and frankly I’m more or less done trying to figure it out.