Dr. Who Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: That's all good and well, but the problem with this stat is that his YPA increased by a mere .1. As much progress as he made, he still only increased that number from 6.6 to 6.7. The key for Allen is not necessarily completion percentage, but yards per attempt. I don't care if his completion percentage remains stagnant if that YPA jumps into the 7.5 range. Air yards only matter if you're completing enough of the shots. Has to fix the long ball issue. That happens, the YPA problem goes away. Hoping an off-season where that is a focus and the addition of playmakers, especially WR1 does the trick. (Also really need to still improve the O-line, imo.) I think it's reasonable to be hopeful it will happen and until proven otherwise, I'm going to stick with that. Edited January 25, 2020 by Dr. Who 1
LSHMEAB Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Has to fix the long ball issue. That happens, the YPA problem goes away. Hoping an off-season where that is a focus and the addition of playmakers, especially WR1 does the trick. (Also really need to still improve the O-line, imo.) I think it's reasonable to be hopeful it will happen and until proven otherwise, I'm going to stick with that. That's exactly right. We keep focusing on completion percentage, but he's never going to be a 70 percent passer. What he does need to do to be that "gunslinger" is hit those deep shots. Start hitting those with regularity and it doesn't really matter if you're right around 60 percent. 1 1
Billl Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Mango said: I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000 Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. Name Number of Games Under 50% passing Tim Tebow 10 Eli Manning 9 Joey Harrington 8 Michael Vick 8 Vince Young 8 Josh Allen 7 David Carr 7 Joe Flacco 7 Blaine Gabbert 7 Andrew Luck 7 Mike McMahon 7 Kyle Orton 7 Patrick Ramsey 7 JaMarcus Russell 7 Mark Sanchez 7 DeShone Kizer 6 Colt McCoy 6 Christian Ponder 6 Geno Smith 6 Brandon Weeden 6 Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson in their entire careers combined: 1 1
Mango Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Billl said: Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson in their entire careers combined: 1 Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer)
Billl Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Mango said: Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer) The reality is that every question will be answered this time next year. As it currently stands, the Bills have the best roster in the East by a comfortable margin. If he’s legit, the division runs through Buffalo for the next few years. 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I was going to go into this bit by bit, but the board dumped my response - probably just as well. Let's just note that 4 of Allen's 7 games you list occurred his rookie season, when he was thrown into it halfway through Game 1 without the benefit of the 1st string reps (that's one of the games). In another, Allen's 4th game against GB, we rushed for 58 freakin' yards (of which 19 were Allen's) and asked him to pass 33 times against GB's confusing coverage and rush. We have the GM openly acknowledging "he didn't do enough" to put an OL and skill weapons around Allen that season. And you want to use that to make a case that it's 50% the QB's fault when he doesn't hit 50% completions, because you assert that it's so? What can I say. We must agree to disagree, and that's That. I note that there are 20 names on that list. 4 of them are QB with Superbowl wins, playoff appearances, probowl appearances, distinguished careers. Sorry but that's pretty far fetched. Playoffs appearances are meaningless to that list. Mark Sanchez didn't lead the Jets, the Jets led him to the AFC championship game. The only 2 QBs on that list that "won" with their talent was Flacco and Manning who are the definition of hot and cold QBs. They got super hot in the post-season. Flacco was truly a "meh" QB most of his career. Luck was a good talent certainly as well. Flacco I wouldn't consider good at all. What we're saying then is 2 out of 20 QBs had a decent career. Which means 9 out of 10 didn't. That puts the % of success at 10%. There is statistical relevancy. Edited January 25, 2020 by BigBillsFan 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:24 AM, Foxx said: i'm not so sure. first of all, your post has a typo, Prescott throwing to Prescott. i think the main reason for Brown and Beasers 'career' years were the result of being the the top two available guys more than anything else. In 2015 Brown was playing WR2 to Larry Fitzgerald who had 54 more receptions, 212 more yards and 2 more TDs. Fitz was still clearly still the #1. I mean I guess you can argue Beasley was the #1 WR in 2016 for the Cowgirls because he had the most targets and yards, but he was playing between Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Both still very effective WRs with Williams coming off his career year. 1
Real McClappy Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 amazing vid on Allen and how he got here! 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:27 AM, jrober38 said: I just watched all 5 highlights. John Brown, Steelers - LOS = 30 yard line, ball caught Steelers' 35. Ball went 35 yards in the air. John Brown, Dolphins - LOS = Dol 40 yard line, ball caught 17 yard line. Ball went 23 yards in the air. John Brown, Patriots - LOS = Bills 47 yard line, ball caught Pats 20 yard line. Ball went 33 yards in the air. Dawson Knox, Bengals - LOS = Bills 29 yard line, ball caught Bills' 49 yard line. Ball went 20 yards in the air. Cole Beasley, Giants - LOS = Bills 35 yard line, ball caught Giants' 39 yard line. Ball went 26 yards in the air. The videos are easy to find. The longest pass Allen completed all year went 35 yards in the air. Haven't looked through the rest of these pages, but I hope you've at least acknowledged that what you call "air yards" are not actually air yards... instead, they are yards from the LOS to the place the WR catches it. Air yards are just what they sound like... yards the ball travels in the air. So just as an example, when you see that pass to John Brown in the 2nd Patriots game, you can acknowledge that the pass actually travels from the 37 to the opposing 20, which is 43 air yards. And while he's being hit. And it's right on the money. And that that's damn impressive.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 20 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play. And what's your point? Were they universally condemned? One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury. Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 12 hours ago, jrober38 said: He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. Assume? One can never assume anything. But Allen is the rawest prospect of any of those other QBs you posted, has more physical prowess than literally every other QB you listed, and seems to have more the heart/dedication AND ability to continue improving his game than several of the guys you posted... JP Losman
BigBillsFan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 Accuracy for a QB cannot simply be measured as target X and throw to X. That's true if the object is static. This week's probowl QB competition, as well as years past, shows you QBs aren't that accurate with few exceptions. Watson was horrible, Jackson was horrible. Both have 66 & 69% completion rates. Completions and accuracy are mostly a dynamic component: WR is running and I throw it here it's enough to what's given by the coverage vs I need to throw it precisely in his arms when he's standing still Most completions are to moving people and now it's a question of dynamic prediction of where to throw it. If you throw it harder and flatter your margin of success goes down than with touch which allows adjustments by the QB. Montana, Young, and Rodgers are masters of these passes arching passes. If you like the NBA compare the 3 of Bill Lambeer vs Steph Curry. It also translates to the stiffness in the arm motion. Marino had a stiffer delivery than Montana because Marino had a bigger arm and threw flatter. Bledsoe and Farve had comparable arm strength (I wanted their long ball competition) but Bledsoe is relaxed and Farve thew the crap out of it. Allen has a combination of Zeus's arm strength with a Bledsoe like motion: compact and efficient. The problem is the type of receivers we have are quick and fast and not the perfect type for players who aren't accurate in tight windows for dynamic elasticity to make a completion. WRs who can use their body to shield areas, have high catch areas, etc.. On the other hand our WRs are quick enough to gain separation in smaller areas to let Allen throw it softer in a zone to allow adjustments. Our TEs are not competent IMO to help bail out the QB. I think we need both for Allen: both the tight window big body WRs who use their body and are large targets which allow him to throw his flatter ball, and hopefully give him targets like Jackson to throw those softer passes to allow adjustments where accuracy isn't the main concern, it's throwing it in a window to allow adjustments. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: Sorry but that's pretty far fetched. Playoffs appearances are meaningless to that list. Mark Sanchez didn't lead the Jets, the Jets led him to the AFC championship game. Mark Sanchez wasn't on my mind as one of the four. 31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: The only 2 QBs on that list that "won" with their talent was Flacco and Manning who are the definition of hot and cold QBs. You just pointed out that Luck was good. The other QB I had in mind was Vick. Whatever you think of him, he won with his talent and served as the template paving the way for guys like Jackson and Kyler Murray. Both before and after jail Vick saw probowls, took his team to playoffs - and his talent (including the passing he did) were an important part of getting them there. I think if you asked most people who know something about football and QBs, they would admit that a guy who did that with 2 teams had QB talent. Flacco's team went to playoffs 6 of his first 7 years in the league and it wasn't in spite of him - the Ravens had a better defense than offense, but with Flacco they managed a top-10-ish offense. I'd be happy for the Bills to manage a top-10-ish offense for 6 of the next 7 years, make it to 2 Division rounds, 2 conference championships, and win a Superbowl. I guess you'd shake your head and explain that it was no good to you, because the QB was "meh". 31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: What we're saying then is 2 out of 20 QBs had a decent career. Which means 9 out of 10 didn't. That puts the % of success at 10%. There is statistical relevancy. 4 out of 20 - even you mention Luck, then inexplicably omit him. 20% Overall, in the first round, the success rate of drafted QB is ~20%, and that's using a definition of success that some find overly generous. So I'm not quite sure of this list's significance or predictive power. This is the sort of stuff that drives me a little nutz here. People impose their own personal definition on something (like whether or not a guy is a talented QB), then making some pronouncement on the basis of that like it's some kind of ironclad canon. People generate a list and get all woo woo look at this? and it's basically not that different from saying "the guy was drafted in the first round and didn't look great right out of the gate". He'll develop, or he won't. 2
BigBillsFan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Assume? One can never assume anything. But Allen is the rawest prospect of any of those other QBs you posted, has more physical prowess than literally every other QB you listed, and seems to have more the heart/dedication AND ability to continue improving his game than several of the guys you posted... JP Losman What? Losman bought a house in Buffalo, cleaned the streets, and loved the city and had an amazing desire to be better. His heart/dedication/blah blah could not be understated. This is the Losman debates rehashed: he's a 1st rounder, he has heart, dedication, skill, and a nose ring. Back then everyone screamed how much he's trying/learning/progressing It's irrelevant, all that matters is that you can do it. Study 24/7, practice, but doing trumps learning. What gets me is he's a raw QB. He should not have been drafted in the 1st round. A raw QB learns on the bench and learns over 2 years. If he was drafted in round 3 or later people would be more objective. Mike Glennon was a project with far less athletic ability, but a better arm. Look at his rookie year, it looks like Josh's this year minus the running. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: What? Losman bought a house in Buffalo, cleaned the streets, and loved the city and had an amazing desire to be better. His heart/dedication/blah blah could not be understated. This is the Losman debates rehashed: he's a 1st rounder, he has heart, dedication, skill, and a nose ring. Back then everyone screamed how much he's trying/learning/progressing It's irrelevant, all that matters is that you can do it. Study 24/7, practice, but doing trumps learning. What gets me is he's a raw QB. He should not have been drafted in the 1st round. A raw QB learns on the bench and learns over 2 years. If he was drafted in round 3 or later people would be more objective. Mike Glennon was a project with far less athletic ability, but a better arm. Look at his rookie year, it looks like Josh's this year minus the running. Glennon's rookie year looks like Josh's this year you say. By what criteria? A better arm? Srsly? I don't want to be premature, but this sounds an awful lot like someone who's focused entirely on the stat sheet and isn't watching the play. You're quite correct on project QB not being drafted in the 1st round, but there was no way Allen was going to last into the 2nd or probably even into the 2nd half of the first. NFL GMs and coaches were too wrought up about what they saw at the Sr Bowl, at the Combine, at his pro day etc. combined with his whiteboard smarts and charisma. QB inflation is a Thing. 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Glennon's rookie year looks like Josh's this year you say. By what criteria? A better arm? Srsly? I don't want to be premature, but this sounds an awful lot like someone who's focused entirely on the stat sheet and isn't watching the play. You're quite correct on project QB not being drafted in the 1st round, but there was no way Allen was going to last into the 2nd or probably even into the 2nd half of the first. NFL GMs and coaches were too wrought up about what they saw at the Sr Bowl, at the Combine, at his pro day etc. combined with his whiteboard smarts and charisma. QB inflation is a Thing. I happen to watch a lot of football. It's the last sport I watch a lot of as I get older. Glennon had a better arm than Allen in terms of mechanics, accuracy and pedigree in college. He lacks Allen's Zeus gun, but Glennon is no slouch in arm strength and had a far better history in college with yards, TD, and experience. He threw for 200/yards a game with 19 TDs in 13 games as a rookie. In other words if you had 3 good WRs and you wanted to see who could hit them in stride as a rookie Glennon would win every day. The same could be said for Landry Jones. I agree with you QB inflation is real, but getting caught up into it is false. As QB inflation for the top prospects become more of a set standard, so do the amount that fall that aren't as prized: Prescott, Watson as examples. There might have been no way that Allen stayed on the board past the 1st but we've seen this before and it's hard to have a raw QB typically pan out. I can't think of the last raw QB that entered the NFL with the expectations of a 1st rounder and turned out ok. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm open to the contrary. 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 25, 2020 Posted January 25, 2020 Here's a list of other raw QBs drafted with more experience in college and all of them failed: Jake Locker Blaine Gabbert Christian Ponder Kyle Boller All of them were fast and raw. All of them would have done better if the team didn't have to rely on them. If all of them had a great defense, and a great running game they would have stayed around much longer. Having a defense like ours and the coaching we have on defense means we can develop Allen into an athletic game manager. Basically what I'm hoping for Allen's peak is the athletic version of a Brady in year 2002: nothing fancy but doesn't lose the game on hero ball and good is good enough. Even with stat creep I think we could win even with those stats. I don't expect that by year 3 either, maybe year 4 or 5. It doesn't take much to have a winner of a QB if you let them develop. Where most of them get exposed is their inability to adapt to blitzing and move the ball when the game is on the line. Allen is better than all of the above in his ability to run with the ball and he has Herculean abilities to extend plays with his feet. It will all come down to whether or not he can throw the ball when blitzed. The top QBs weren't all physically gifted, but all of them learned how to win more than lose against the blitz. That's what we need to see. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 11:19 AM, Billl said: OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula This post tells me a lot about you. On 1/23/2020 at 1:38 PM, BringBackOrton said: Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens. You should try it. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 19 hours ago, thebandit27 said: I think the more pertinent point is that claiming that Allen is “dead last” in terms of accuracy isn’t true. In fact he’s not even bottom 10. I’m not saying that we should be happy with 21st, but there’s a relative chasm between the claim and reality.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Author Posted January 25, 2020 8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: Where did Allen “not get much help?” Let’s do a deep dive on his receiver’s stats. His top two targets ranked 47th and 78th in drop rates this season. John Brown’s yards per target was higher than Kelce, Sanders, Julio, Kupp, Landry, Woods, Cooks, Allen, Tate, Adams, Hopkins, Odell. Oh no! Some one is bringing up stats that don’t make Allen look like he’s throwing to Wyoming level receivers! Maybe it's actually Allen who elevated Brown and Beasley more than the other way around. Maybe those guys were upgrades, but along with believing "Allen's not there yet," the more relevant discussion relative to a young raw QB who's still improving is that the team isn't there yet. And what's that old cliche...? A Tight End is a young QB's best friend? Who was Allen's #1 Tight End and where did he rank in terms of drop rates? 1
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