thebandit27 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: "For me this checks all the boxes for a hot party dip. It's relatively cheap and easy to make, but maybe more importantly, it's great hot, warm, or room temp. And it's also incredibly versatile." now THAT... looks like damn good dip! cheap and easy. versatile.... all the reasons I married my wife really. i'm gonna have to give it a go. Slap it on some lightly toasted Hawaiian rolls; delicious and simple. Oh, and shell out for some really good ground. I get mine from a farm nearby; the top quality beef really makes it.
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: And when 3 rushers can generate that much pressure that quickly it's a disaster considering that the Texans had EIGHT men in coverage as a result of only rushing 3. As an aside, I listen to Cowherd a lot and over the last month he frequently calls out Allen as an example of the next wave of super QB's. This is a distinct change from when he was calling Allen a bust. My guess is that Cowherd has watched some tape and talked to some QB experts who studied Allen and he's changed his mind about him as a result. From what I've seen Allen does more with less then almost any other QB in the NFL. It's that simple. I predict that when the Bills surround Allen with players that lift the Bills into the top half of NFL offenses, Allen will perform as a top 10 QB. If we ever get the talent on offense to reach the top quarter, Allen will be a top 3 QB. Cowherd is awful. So punchable. his daughter though. Edited January 24, 2020 by C.Biscuit97
jrober38 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I referred to Pro.football.reference not PFF Free Sorry about not providing a link, my mobile device isn’t being friendly about letting me paste in links Gotcha. I'll check it out next time.
jrober38 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm 5 drops for Barkley 31 drops for Allen They did. 5 of them. Not good enough long term. But considering where he was last year, it's big progress. And there would be absolutely no reason to believe he couldn't make another big step with a full offseason the way he did year 1 to year 2. He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. Edited January 24, 2020 by jrober38 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Mango said: Which we know not to be true because that is basically the entire idea behind the Erhardt-Perkins. Run 100 different plays out of one formation based on what the defense is showing you. That does not mean, i do not get frustrated with BD's play calling. I do. I have spend many a Sunday pulling out my hair. I don't know what to think. You say stuff that shows you really know your football. And then there's stuff like this and the "50% on Allen" arbitrary bullgaffle. TL;DR to beat Blitz0, 100 different plays out of one formation won't help you, and that's not really what EP is all about anyway. Screens; Throw Hot into the Blitzer; Deep Post. Daboll seems to love to try the deep throw, but not necessarily the post and not from max protect (which is too often ineffective for us); the Deep Post is a clear gap in Allen's game right now; we don't seem to Do screens; and teams have figured out they can disguise the blitzer and we don't have enough guys who can get open quickly on those hot routes to make it "no matter, someone will be". The Erhard Perkins started out as an offense focused on the run and short passing game in the '70s using multiple formations and personnel to disguise the same series of simple plays - it's far more about "100 different formations running 10 plays" than "100 different plays out of one formation" at its root. It evolved under Belicheck to be an offensive system. Today a number of teams run it, and their offenses are all somewhat different - it's become more of a system of offensive terminology than a single offensive philosophy. Chan Gailey's EP system looks different and relies on a somewhat different approach from Belichecks. Today, pretty much all NFL offensive systems to my understanding have some variation of the same plays and concepts. All that said, when we're talking about a question like "how do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots run?" running 100 different plays doesn't help you. The fundamental problem is that in leaving no safety deep, there are extra guys to cover short "hot routes" and blitz and the challenge is to decode who is covering and who is blitzing. It's not a finesse move at heart; it's about "I don't GAF which of 100 plays you're running from that formation, we're gonna KILL IT BEFORE IT GROWS". Probably about the best explanation I've found of Cover0 as the Patriots run it is Brett Kollman's "Kids See Ghosts" (I know I'm gonna sound like a shill for the guy, but honest I'm not, I just find him that good). He explains that at least as the Patriots run Cover0, the OFFENSE essentially drives who rushes and who doesn't, because they will 1) only rush enough guys to get one guy free 2) they won't leave a receiver uncovered 3) the minute a defender is blocked, he will stop rushing and drop back into coverage, clogging up the middle of the field and taking away the short routes there. Meanwhile (something Baltimore did, and it seemed like Houston did though I haven't had the stomach to go back and watch it all yet), while blocked defenders may drop back into coverage, defenders who initially looked like they were dropping into coverage will leverage gaps that develop and become blitzers. It's a total PITA to defend, blocking-wise. It's not a secret how you beat it, but again, running 100 different plays that scheme WR open in different ways won't help because of the above. You need specific plays that exploit the openings it inevitably leaves. As Kollman notes (about 3:50 in if you watch), probably the most reliable way to get cheap yards against Blitz0 is to throw screens. Do we have a good screen game? MMMmmmmm not so much that I've seen, and I'm not sure why. Fitz had wheels enough that Ds needed to keep an eye on him, yet Gailey was the ScreenMeister. I wish Daboll would sit down with a bottle of his favorite brew and a clip-up of 2010-12 Bills screen plays, see if there isn't something there he can use. (Invite Frazier to watch, because the smart money says he'll be seeing those same damn screens 2x/season next year. Oh, make that 4x - Guess what vulnerability the Pats found in our D.) Blitz0 beater #2: throw hot into the extra blitzer. This is the quintessential Patriots solution, and when they had Gronk and Edelman Brady almost always had a short-area solution that was nearly guaranteed to make a clean catch in traffic and get 3-10 yds. Here the Bills have two problems: 1) a sure-handed guy other than Singletary who can get open quickly and become a reliable hot read. If the focus is on Singletary, they can just key off and nail him for too short yards 2) the way Ds seem to be running zero blitz against us, figuring out where the extra blitzer is coming from. OK, maybe they have 3 problems: Allen seems to have "Momma didn't raise no B" tattoo'ed on his hypothalamus, leading to a reluctance to take the checkdown. Which leads us to.... Blitz0 beater #3: the Deep Post. Max protect with 7, Hit it and Win. This is the solution (or a variation thereof) that Daboll tried to implement vs. Baltimore. So what's our problem there? Well, first of all, when we keep in 7, we don't necessarily get clean max protect. Our OL can't always hold its blocks; our TE and RB get beat like drums; late blitzers exploit gaps. Second of all, especially under pressure, Allen has struggled with the deep throw and especially with the deep post. It's easily seen on the NextGenStats, Allen has improved his passer rating significantly all over (the short red thing is throw aways) EXCEPT the deep center of the field. So #3 is on Allen but also on the OL (max protect not good enough), #2 may be partly on Beane - I think Kroft was supposed to be That Guy but he didn't work out, and #1 seems to be on Daboll that the screen play isn't in our offensive vocabulary enough. It's all overall IMO also on Daboll since he seemed in the Ravens game at least, to be counting on #3 to work and to have no Plan B or C behind it. I can hear it now, "Allen homer" "Allen excuse maker" blah blah which is partly my point in bringing up the Kollman video which features Mahomes and Darnold - these aren't Bills specific problems, they're problems other young QBs have faced and were poorly prepared for in part because of scheme and play calling choices. 3 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. Yup. This is all a giant guessing game. He was a game manager carried by a really good defense who is capable of making big plays. So either he takes the next step like Brady, Big Ben, Or Wilson or he is Sanchez (Sanchez really sucked though), Bortles, or Mitchell. It’s anyone’s guess at this point. the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year. I think while he certainly improved, there are some big areas that concern me. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, jrober38 said: It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. To the contrary, you seem to make (and to pound the drum repeatedly) in the opposite direction, that "as Allen is now so shall he always be", to the extent of conflating below average completion % with "below average passer" and so forth. The truth is, he may develop either way, we just don't know yet. 2 1
oldmanfan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, jrober38 said: He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. Who is saying it's a sure thing? What people are saying is the kid is improving and we'll see how he continues to develop. It is not the folks who are more on the pro side that are having any trouble with that, it is those like you that think you know exactly what he is and what he'll become that have the problem. Of course by your standard we can only hope he'll be Jameis Winston. 3
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, jrober38 said: He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season. Yeah it's all about certainty isn't it. He might get better, he might not George. Thanks I never would have guessed it's difficult to find a franchise QB. Absurd 2
thebandit27 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 50 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year. I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve. For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better. Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy. A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why. 2 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve. For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better. Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy. A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why. I mean the same thing is happening in the Lamar Jackson pro bowl thread. Fans are laughing at the MVP because of a pro bowl competition. and my main point of why I wasn’t a big fan of the Allen pick is because 1) a top 10 qb should dominate the MWC and I hate excuse why he didn’t 2) I didn’t trust the Bills to develop a qb. I think Daboll is the definition of settling for average at best but the team has done some nice things for him. They have invested in the oline and he has 2 nfl starting caliber wrs while he gets to play with a defense that rarely allows 20+ points i just pray we add a receiver and can know for sure one way or the other is he is the answer. I don’t want to be stuck in Tannehill land. 2 2
thebandit27 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I mean the same thing is happening in the Lamar Jackson pro bowl thread. Fans are laughing at the MVP because of a pro bowl competition. and my main point of why I wasn’t a big fan of the Allen pick is because 1) a top 10 qb should dominate the MWC and I hate excuse why he didn’t 2) I didn’t trust the Bills to develop a qb. I think Daboll is the definition of settling for average at best but the team has done some nice things for him. They have invested in the oline and he has 2 nfl starting caliber wrs while he gets to play with a defense that rarely allows 20+ points i just pray we add a receiver and can know for sure one way or the other is he is the answer. I don’t want to be stuck in Tannehill land. I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind. And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good. 1 1 2
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind. And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good. Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve. For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better. Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy. A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why. Great post. I have the same observation (and as a mod, I probably spend more time in the "weeds" of the board (the extremes) than most. It frustrates me no end how one can not point out problems with the OL, the WR getting open, the playcalling etc without someone beating the "just Allen excusemaking" drum. I think the extremes stem from two things: 1) the polarization pre-draft: Allen is essentially positioned as a litmus test for modern analytics scouting vs. old-fashioned eyeballs and shoesoles stuff which is where we had analytics guys looking at their numbers and saying extreme stuff like "joke of a first round pick" and "mathematics prove less than zero chance to succeed" or stuff like that vs. the eyeball scouts who watched his Senior Bowl stuff in 2018, for example, and said OMG! OMG! OMG! *swoon* 2) country is generally pretty damn polarized these days where everyone is termed a "lover" or a "hater". Beane and co. use analytics, but they are also very much eyeballs and shoesoles scouts and willing to pull the trigger and take a shot at the high-ceiling/low floor guys. Analytics is not as much an exact science in football as it thinks it is. 11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns. I share those concerns. I will say this: I was much more favorably impressed by this offseason's acquisitions on offense. Either there was some turn-over on college and pro personnel scouting on Beane's staff, or there was a shift in priorities and assignments. I sort of had the impression that in 2018, they were "all-in" with scouting QB and defense, and gave the "bum's rush" to scouting OL or WR. 3
Mango Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know what to think. You say stuff that shows you really know your football. And then there's stuff like this and the "50% on Allen" arbitrary bullgaffle. TL;DR to beat Blitz0, 100 different plays out of one formation won't help you, and that's not really what EP is all about anyway. Screens; Throw Hot into the Blitzer; Deep Post. Daboll seems to love to try the deep throw, but not necessarily the post and not from max protect (which is too often ineffective for us); the Deep Post is a clear gap in Allen's game right now; we don't seem to Do screens; and teams have figured out they can disguise the blitzer and we don't have enough guys who can get open quickly on those hot routes to make it "no matter, someone will be". The Erhard Perkins started out as an offense focused on the run and short passing game in the '70s using multiple formations and personnel to disguise the same series of simple plays - it's far more about "100 different formations running 10 plays" than "100 different plays out of one formation" at its root. It evolved under Belicheck to be an offensive system. Today a number of teams run it, and their offenses are all somewhat different - it's become more of a system of offensive terminology than a single offensive philosophy. Chan Gailey's EP system looks different and relies on a somewhat different approach from Belichecks. Today, pretty much all NFL offensive systems to my understanding have some variation of the same plays and concepts. All that said, when we're talking about a question like "how do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots run?" running 100 different plays doesn't help you. The fundamental problem is that in leaving no safety deep, there are extra guys to cover short "hot routes" and blitz and the challenge is to decode who is covering and who is blitzing. It's not a finesse move at heart; it's about "I don't GAF which of 100 plays you're running from that formation, we're gonna KILL IT BEFORE IT GROWS". Probably about the best explanation I've found of Cover0 as the Patriots run it is Brett Kollman's "Kids See Ghosts" (I know I'm gonna sound like a shill for the guy, but honest I'm not, I just find him that good). He explains that at least as the Patriots run Cover0, the OFFENSE essentially drives who rushes and who doesn't, because they will 1) only rush enough guys to get one guy free 2) they won't leave a receiver uncovered 3) the minute a defender is blocked, he will stop rushing and drop back into coverage, clogging up the middle of the field and taking away the short routes there. Meanwhile (something Baltimore did, and it seemed like Houston did though I haven't had the stomach to go back and watch it all yet), while blocked defenders may drop back into coverage, defenders who initially looked like they were dropping into coverage will leverage gaps that develop and become blitzers. It's a total PITA to defend, blocking-wise. It's not a secret how you beat it, but again, running 100 different plays that scheme WR open in different ways won't help because of the above. You need specific plays that exploit the openings it inevitably leaves. As Kollman notes (about 3:50 in if you watch), probably the most reliable way to get cheap yards against Blitz0 is to throw screens. Do we have a good screen game? MMMmmmmm not so much that I've seen, and I'm not sure why. Fitz had wheels enough that Ds needed to keep an eye on him, yet Gailey was the ScreenMeister. I wish Daboll would sit down with a bottle of his favorite brew and a clip-up of 2010-12 Bills screen plays, see if there isn't something there he can use. (Invite Frazier to watch, because the smart money says he'll be seeing those same damn screens next year. Guess what vulnerability the Pats found in our D.) Blitz0 beater #2: throw hot into the extra blitzer. This is the quintessential Patriots solution, and when they had Gronk and Edelman Brady almost always had a short-area solution that was nearly guaranteed to make a clean catch in traffic and get 3-10 yds. Here the Bills have two problems: 1) a sure-handed guy other than Singletary who can get open quickly and become a reliable hot read. If the focus is on Singletary, they can just key off and nail him for too short yards 2) the way Ds seem to be running zero blitz against us, figuring out where the extra blitzer is coming from. OK, maybe they have 3 problems: Allen seems to have "Momma didn't raise no B" tattoo'ed on his hypothalamus, leading to a reluctance to take the checkdown. Which leads us to.... Blitz0 beater #3: the Deep Post. Max protect with 7, Hit it and Win. This is the solution (or a variation thereof) that Daboll tried to implement vs. Baltimore. So what's our problem there? Well, first of all, when we keep in 7, we don't necessarily get clean max protect. Our OL can't always hold its blocks; our TE and RB get beat like drums; late blitzers exploit gaps. Second of all, especially under pressure, Allen has struggled with the deep throw and especially with the deep post. It's easily seen on the NextGenStats, Allen has improved his passer rating significantly all over (the short red thing is throw aways) EXCEPT the deep center of the field. So #3 is on Allen but also on the OL (max protect not good enough), #2 may be partly on Beane - I think Kroft was supposed to be That Guy but he didn't work out, and #1 seems to be on Daboll that the screen play isn't in our offensive vocabulary enough. It's all overall IMO also on Daboll since he seemed in the Ravens game at least, to be counting on #3 to work and to have no Plan B or C behind it. I can hear it now, "Allen homer" "Allen excuse maker" blah blah which is partly my point in bringing up the Kollman video which features Mahomes and Darnold - these aren't Bills specific problems, they're problems other young QBs have faced and were poorly prepared for in part because of scheme and play calling choices. Just to clarify- I wasn't talking about putting up 400 yards, throwing 6 TD's, and being productive, I was talking about how much blame should the QB harbor for not completing 50% of his passes in 3 football games. At least half the blame falls on the QB for not completing 50 percent of his passes for 3 ENTIRE NFL games. 50% is obviously an arbitrary number, but the conversation was trending towards identifying how much of the blame is on Allen. The answer- at least half. It isn't really a quantifiable question- but at least half is my answer to that question. And I stand by the idea that Allen takes a MAJORITY of the blame for failing to complete 50% of his passes on multiple ocassions. My response for EP is wrong and right. Yes it runs the same play from a number of formations, but that also means you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, because a huge portion of the playbook is on the table. At the end of the day EP is heavily reliant on the QB to accurately and quickly diagnose and label.
thebandit27 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns. Split. I think that they have some good ideas in that the archetypes they’ve brought in have been good fits for what they want to do offensively. I also think that they’ve found great value in guys like Nsekhe and Mongo. On the other hand, they’ve put a number of eggs in some questionable baskets like Gore, the WR3 spot, Kroft, and (even though it goes under the radar) Barkley. I believe this offseason will tell us a lot about whether or not they’re bound and determined to give Allen the best chance to succeed. And if I can be so bold, it will determine their long-term fate in Buffalo. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Mango said: Just to clarify- I wasn't talking about putting up 400 yards, throwing 6 TD's, and being productive, I was talking about how much blame should the QB harbor for not completing 50% of his passes in 3 football games. At least half the blame falls on the QB for not completing 50 percent of his passes for 3 ENTIRE NFL games. 50% is obviously an arbitrary number, but the conversation was trending towards identifying how much of the blame is on Allen. The answer- at least half. It isn't really a quantifiable question- but at least half is my answer to that question. And I stand by the idea that Allen takes a MAJORITY of the blame for failing to complete 50% of his passes on multiple ocassions. My response for EP is wrong and right. Yes it runs the same play from a number of formations, but that also means you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, because a huge portion of the playbook is on the table. At the end of the day EP is heavily reliant on the QB to accurately and quickly diagnose and label. I understood your point, I'm saying that I think assigning 50% of that to the QB is totally arbitrary and capricious. It totally is a quantifiable question how much of the blame goes to the QB on each play, but to quantify that requires information none of us have, but the team does. You can stand by your idea all you like, but it's 1) way too simplistic and 2) probably wrong. The point about your characterization of EP offensive system is that it's fairly meaningless whether or not you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, or the same play from a number of formations, with regard to the ability to beat Blitz0. What matters is can you effectively execute THE CORRECT PLAY CHOICES TO BEAT BLITZ ZERO? Can you run screen plays successfully? Do you have more than one guy who can get open quickly on hot reads and are the plays designed to get them open fast? Do you have guys on the OL, TE and RB who can block and hold their blocks effectively while the deep route develops? Can your QB hit that deep post? (Allen is responsible for that last, and this past season the answer was "no" more often than not) If you don't, you're like the Devil's Dictionary definition of Consultant: "Guy who knows 500 ways to Make Love, and doesn't have a Girlfriend"
jrober38 Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Yup. This is all a giant guessing game. He was a game manager carried by a really good defense who is capable of making big plays. So either he takes the next step like Brady, Big Ben, Or Wilson or he is Sanchez (Sanchez really sucked though), Bortles, or Mitchell. It’s anyone’s guess at this point. the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year. I think while he certainly improved, there are some big areas that concern me. Agreed. People grossly underestimate how valuable a defense that allows 16.5 points per game is to any QB. People love to talk about his weapons, which seems like a serious cop out to me given how little scoring we needed on offense to win games. Allen does some things well, and he does some things really poorly. The things he does poorly, like throw the ball down the field, drastically need to improve. The fumbles need to improve. The history of taking sacks that knock us out of field goal range needs to improve. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen next year. If he's not compiling a QB rating in the mid 90s, and in the top half of the league in most categories, it's unlikely to ever happen. 1 1
ColoradoBills Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve. For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better. Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy. A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why. Good post. I haven't been a part of this thread but I will "piggyback" on your post to give my two cents. Josh Allen AND the Bills offense need to improve. Everyone knows that. It's a team sport and every aspect of the offense needs to improve to get more points scored. Allen needs a better deep ball. Allen can improve on ball placement. Allen HAS to learn to keep the ball secured. OL/TE/RBs have to improve in pass protection. Offense needs a lot more practice on their screen plays. Pass "drops" (I got eyes and there are too many of them) need to get better. Receivers need better separation. Offensive playcalling/schemes needs improvement. etc. etc. etc. Not every one of these HAS to be improved but most of these bullet points need improvement. I'm certain the Bills staff know this. The question is will they be able to do it? I expect the majority (60% or a little more) of this years "treasure" of $s and picks go to the offense. If it doesn't I will be sad. Josh Allen looked better this year to me but still has a lot to get done this off season to continue his development. I know he will put in the effort along with the rest of the O. The extremists on both sides will probably not care about this post. I for one am looking forward to September. 2
YattaOkasan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I understood your point, I'm saying that I think assigning 50% of that to the QB is totally arbitrary and capricious. It totally is a quantifiable question how much of the blame goes to the QB on each play, but to quantify that requires information none of us have, but the team does. I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make. I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information. But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump. Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps. I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go. However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week? How does he read the defense and audible? We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL. I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.
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