BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) If Allen can audible he either can't read the defense or there isn't a scheme to beat it. How do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots? Either smash-mouth with dynamic run plays or developing hot reads to the blitz. The problem is either Daboll's schemes don't have an answer, Allen doesn't like doing audibles, or Allen can't mentally figure out when to call the right play. Even the smurf WRs are fine. Most of Manning's WRs through the years were 6' or shorter. As noted many times on the All-22 WRs were open but he wasn't going for the underneath stuff if he waited a bit, he wanted to throw it deeper. I still say we need a better TE and 1 bigger WR. Yes, a lot of plays fall on a QB. I don't think with modern offenses they can't or don't coach how to get out of situations after studying 1,000's of hours of tape. The adjustment comes from the QB. Edited January 23, 2020 by BigBillsFan
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Billl said: Yes. And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account. Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well. Really? Which ones, how are they weighted, and so on?
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Really? Which ones, how are they weighted, and so on? OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Billl said: OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point. Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever. Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity. 1
Kangaxx Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Billl said: Yes. And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account. Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well. QBR is a terrible stat. Nobody with actual knowledge takes it seriously. Edited January 23, 2020 by BillsFanForReal
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Billl said: OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula The same QBR formula that gave Allen a lower QBR for 2019 than 2018 despite him improving his numbers and performance in literally every possible category? 3
BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point. Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever. Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity. Drops can also be subjective. There is no objective criteria of what a drop is, it's done by someone guessing. The 4 pass thing that lacks statistical significance is also inaccurate. You can raise that to 9 completions for the season to get to 60% too. You started at 59.6% and you could also go to 60.4%. The point is he missed those throws. If they are easy to make then make them. Everyone can say "if they just X it would mean Y". Its the entire argument of Scooby Doo "If it wasn't for you meddling kids..." You either do it or you don't. The same can be said for drops. For every drop you have a circus catch. Duke dropped a super easy one in the playoffs but he had an amazing catch as well. Knox was a dropaholic but he also had 2 catches that were circus like. You don't factor in circus catches as "possible incompletions". I also agree QBR is horrible, it factors in running more than passing, that's why Josh's QBR is lower this year. It's a stat for running QBs.
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, oldmanfan said: A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point. Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever. Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity. So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Billl said: So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject. Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man. You left out that Allen was... 6th in total TDs by a QB 8th in completed air yards per completion 1st in 4th quarter comebacks 3rd in 4th quarter passer rating 1st in 3rd and long conversion rate 3rd in 3rd down passer rating So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses. 4
GoBills808 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Billl said: So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject. Since you used QBR I'm going to assume you don't know much about what you're trying to analyze...confirmed by using three different stats in passer rating/comp%/YPA that (surprise!) Allen fairs poorly in. Of course, if you knew how passer rating is calculated you'd know how disingenuous it is to refer to three statistics that depend to a large extent on completing a high amount of throws...in reference to a QB like Allen whose receivers dropped passes at an extremely high rate. 4
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Helmed a playoff bound Bills squad in just his second (first full starting) season, showing marked improvement along the way and primed to come back with a juiced roster and hopefully better weapons at WR. If you can’t see what we the homers see in the intangible department to go along with the above, then, well, continue torturing your numbers to admit to whatever floats your boat
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, Billl said: So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject. I'm not rejecting it, I'm saying without my knowing what the variables are and how they are weighted it's difficult for me to determine the validity of this particular measure. And it would appear I'm not alone from the article you posted. I review a lot of medical and scientific manuscripts submitted for publication and the primary reason they get rejected is because of improper study design and statistics. This thread is about completion percentage, and just in that alone there are a number of variables to consider. Is QB one of them? Absolutely. I have said more times than I can count since the end of the season that Allen needs to continue improving. I think there are two primary things that affect his completion rate. One is that he does not read defenses all that well yet, and as a result sometimes he throws too quickly off a bad platform or sometimes he doesn't make the correct read and take an easier throw over a harder one. That's on him. The second is on his WRs/TEs making catches and on the OC setting up plays where he has receivers open. Those can each be improved on as well. What I do know is that the continual moaning about a 60% pass completion rate being all on Allen, or in some way a testimony to inaccuracy is wrong. Accuracy does not equal completion percentage. I showed the math above where the difference between 58.8% and 60% completion rate is 4 passes over his past season. I just did a quick power analysis to see what the sample size would be to say that 58.8% is truly different than 60%, and you'd need over 35,000 passes to make that meaningful. Again Allen needs to continue improvement. But there's a lot of different things that go into that, some under his control and some not. I just think people need to quit attaching themselves to one number like a 60% completion rate or a 300 yard passing game (when it has been show repeatedly here that 300 yard passers have an equal chance of winning or losing games) as if it definitively means anything. it doesn't. it's a lot more complex. 1
BringBackOrton Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said: A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point. Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever. Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity. Bad throws causing a lower completion percentage being “irrelevant” is the cherry on top of this Looney Tunes sundae. 1
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man. You left out that Allen was... 6th in total TDs by a QB 8th in completed air yards per completion 1st in 4th quarter comebacks 3rd in 4th quarter passer rating 1st in 3rd and long conversion rate 3rd in 3rd down passer rating So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses. That’s certainly food for thought. Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG. I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be. 1
BringBackOrton Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man. You left out that Allen was... 6th in total TDs by a QB 8th in completed air yards per completion 1st in 4th quarter comebacks 3rd in 4th quarter passer rating 1st in 3rd and long conversion rate 3rd in 3rd down passer rating So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses. Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens. 1 1
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Billl said: That’s certainly food for thought. Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG. I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be. So you’re saying that context matters? Great. I agree. Put everything into context and we’ll analyze it. I’m on my way to Russell’s for dinner. 10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens. I actually don’t believe that a statistic can be flawed. A statistic is a number, an indicator; nothing more or less. A calculated and manipulated rating, on the other hand, can be flawed. Completion percentage is simply a number—how many passes a QB throws that are caught vs not caught. An analysis that conflates it with accuracy may be flawed (but isn’t necessarily if the correct context is applied). More to say about analysis, but steak awaits.
oldmanfan Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said: Bad throws causing a lower completion percentage being “irrelevant” is the cherry on top of this Looney Tunes sundae. To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate. The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw? Four. Four out over over 400. I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful. Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever. It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%. But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Author Posted January 24, 2020 10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about. But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC. I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should. Especially with his physical tools. Matt Ryan wasn't dominant. Josh Allen lifted Wyoming as a team more than Matt Ryan lifted Boston College. 2
BringBackOrton Posted January 24, 2020 Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate. The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw? Four. Four out over over 400. I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful. Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever. It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%. But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid. Was 60% even league average this year? Are we shooting for the lofty goal of 30th in the NFL in completion percentage? I suppose when you rank 32nd even 30th smells sweet. Edited January 24, 2020 by BringBackOrton 1 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Author Posted January 24, 2020 9 hours ago, jrober38 said: I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw. I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. This post tells me a lot about you. You don't watch the Bills much, do you? I got 4 deep passes off the top of my head: John Brown TD against Denver John Brown deep ball on Game Winning Drive in Pittsburgh Dawson Knox pass that was originally ruled a TD but moved to the 1 in NE John Brown TD in NE 9 hours ago, jrober38 said: I looked into it. Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs. Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%. Well this just isn't right at all. Can you do math? 31 drops 461 attempts 271 completions I don't know what you mean by "eliminating drops," but I would assume you mean counting those drops as catches since the throws were on target. 271 + 31 = 302 302 / 461 = 65.5% Don't know where the hell you came up with 62%
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