BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I don't think this is true. It makes things way too subjective. Every QB's air yards are calculated based off how far from the LOS the ball flies. I was agreeing with you, I think I worded it imprecisely. Sorry
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 The Bills were 9-1 in games when completing at least 60% of the pass attempts. They were 0-5 in the others. 2
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Hmmm, according to @SDS there aren't size limits on attachments here. There might be a size limit on pasting in depending where you're posting from. I would say use a computer, save the file to your computer, and upload from the file. That would be one of the analytics guys, PFF or Football Outsiders. And that would be subject to the Achilles heal of analytics - they are making inferences about what they think the route is and etc. Which is how they come up with grades for OLmen that are often wildly out of sync with how the team grades them. What Beane and his crew were able to do is something very different - sit down with Allen and the coaches and the actual playsheets for the game and find out - what was the play call? What route were you expecting the WR to run? What happened? You can see a little example of this in The Wakeup Call with Kirk Cousins talking to Josh Allen. There is a checkdown throw to an RB that Allen makes that looks wildly inaccurate that they break down. It turns out the RB and Allen read the D differently, and the RB ran a route he should hve run for one coverage while Allen saw different coverage and threw accordingly. It says the largest file I can upload is 0.2 MB, which is tiny. I just found a link though. It's a very long read but very interesting if you find the time to read the whole thing. https://www.scribd.com/document/385295150/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking2-pdf 1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said: I was agreeing with you, I think I worded it imprecisely. Sorry My bad. It's tough having to respond when a poster is blatantly lying (that other guy). He's literally ignoring basic video evidence to try and prove his extremely misguided point. 1 minute ago, Billl said: The Bills were 9-1 in games when completing at least 60% of the pass attempts. They were 0-5 in the others. But Completion Percentage doesn't matter!!! Rabble, Rabble, Rabble!!! 1 1
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You're living in a fantasy land. You're literally just saying things you want to be true. Straight from NextGen's Glossary: Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass. Give it up. Please stop making up blatant lies. Then feel free to explain why the VERY SANE site lists his LCAY as 50.1. I’ll wait.
BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 We should be careful to call each other liars. A liar is when someone willfully and knowingly tells something they know to be false. I should know, my wife calls me a liar all the time. 2
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Then feel free to explain why the VERY SANE site lists his LCAY as 50.1. I’ll wait. Maybe their data is wrong. Maybe the guy who recorded the data was drunk. Who freaking knows. Maybe spend 2 minutes watching the 5 videos I just posted and just take your medicine. They're right there, and they blatantly show that nothing you've said over the past 20 minutes is even remotely true. You've misrepresented what air yards are, and you're ignoring clear video evidence. If you're not trying to mislead people I don't know what you're trying to do. You're wrong. Totally, utterly, wrong. Own it. Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38 1
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: Maybe their data is wrong. Maybe the guy who recorded the data was drunk. Who freaking knows. Maybe spend 2 minutes watching the 5 videos I just posted and just take your medicine. They're right there, and they blatantly show that nothing you've said over the past 20 minutes is even remotely true. You're wrong. Totally, utterly, wrong. Own it. Ah, so “the data guy is drunk”? I love it.
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, thebandit27 said: Ah, so “the data guy is drunk”? I love it. Have you watched the videos? Obviously not. The videos show the data is clearly incorrect. If you're going to call other people biased, maybe try not being completely biased yourself. This is beyond sad at this point. The video is clear. They obviously don't support your bogus stats which have nothing on tape to support them.
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Points scored when the Bills complete 60%: 23.5 per game. When they don't: 15.4 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: I just watched all 5 highlights. John Brown, Steelers - LOS = 30 yard line, ball caught Steelers' 35. Ball went 35 yards in the air. John Brown, Dolphins - LOS = Dol 40 yard line, ball caught 17 yard line. Ball went 23 yards in the air. John Brown, Patriots - LOS = Bills 47 yard line, ball caught Pats 20 yard line. Ball went 33 yards in the air. Dawson Knox, Bengals - LOS = Bills 29 yard line, ball caught Bills' 49 yard line. Ball went 20 yards in the air. Cole Beasley, Giants - LOS = Bills 35 yard line, ball caught Giants' 39 yard line. Ball went 26 yards in the air. The videos are easy to find. The longest pass Allen completed all year went 35 yards in the air. And the rush yards weren't intentionally off. When I checked mid season, the 49ers averaged 39 rush attempts per game. They ran the ball a LOT less down the stretch, which I wasn't aware of. OK, I see part of the confusion. There's a terminology thing here. You are saying "yards in the air" But then you are looking at distance from the LOS. You actually mean "yards from the LOS" If you mean "from the LOS", say so! But that's not "yards in the air". A 3-step drop for a QB can be 8-9 yds behind the LOS. Ditto after play-action. Shotgun can start 6 yards behind the LOS and the QB's drop adds from there. So the pass to John Brown in the Patriots game, Allen was ~13 yds behind the LOS, the ball went ~46 yds in the air. Pass to John Brown in the Steelers game, Allen was ~8 yds behind the LOS when he threw, ball went ~43 yds in the air. You can see this in the Nextgen Stats charts, when the little blue arrow showing the initiation on TD passes is usually 6-12 yds behind the LOS Truth: I'm kind of being a bit of a jackass harping on this because I dislike it when people pontificate without getting their facts or terminology down. But the truth is, while I know durn well that Allen has completed several passes this season that went more than 41 yds in the air, it really doesn't matter whether they went 30 35 or 41 or 55 yds in the air. Those were significant passes in those games, but they aren't actually the passes that matter too much to a careful assessment of whether or not Josh Allen can succeed as an NFL QB. They're the "oooohs" and "aaaaahs" moments. 9 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Have you watched the videos? Obviously not. The videos show the data is clearly incorrect. If you're going to call other people biased, maybe try not being completely biased yourself. This is beyond sad at this point. The video is clear. They obviously don't support your bogus stats which have nothing on tape to support them. Dude, you need to back it down. You're using words imprecisely, talking about "yards in the air" when you mean "LOS" Own your own part and don't go after other people as putting out "bogus stats which have nothing on tape to support them" when you're creating part of the confusion yourself.
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Have you watched the videos? Obviously not. The videos show the data is clearly incorrect. If you're going to call other people biased, maybe try not being completely biased yourself. This is beyond sad at this point. The video is clear. They obviously don't support your bogus stats which have nothing on tape to support them. OR perhaps the definition that you’ve posted isn’t the way that they calculate it, since if you watch the video and apply just a bit of math, you can quite easily see where the 50.1 number comes from (hint: watch the Denver throw to Smoke again). See this is what I mean: if you’re actually looking for the answer as to why the definition and number don’t seem to line up, then you’d watch the videos analytically, not looking to justify some agenda. But you didn’t. You just picked them out in order to support a statement that you didn’t research and now are forced to defend because owning a mistake just isn’t your style. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Says the guy who didn't click on the obvious video evidence. Your bias is laughable. Allen can do no wrong. You'll believe fake facts even if they're easily disproven in about 30 seconds of video. Again - you need to back it down. The NFL doesn't purvey "fake facts" on its stat sites. You need to look at yourself and how you're contributing to this. You're saying "yards in the air" but you mean "yards from the LOS". The stat in the link Bandit gave is for yards in the air, which is what you said you were looking at. 1
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks. The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't. The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards. Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win. 1
Stank_Nasty Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Again - you need to back it down. The NFL doesn't purvey "fake facts" on its stat sites. You need to look at yourself and how you're contributing to this. You're saying "yards in the air" but you mean "yards from the LOS". The stat in the link Bandit gave is for yards in the air, which is what you said you were looking at. its a clear difference that I caught onto immediately. I don't get why anyone would have a hard time understanding it. 1
Commish Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2450 posts, 100 pages! How long is this thread going to be when JA retires from the Bills in 15 years?
Augie Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Roch-A-Bill said: 2450 posts, 100 pages! How long is this thread going to be when JA retires from the Bills in 15 years? I hope we are arguing over whether he really deserved all seven of those Super Bowl MVPs! 2
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Billl said: The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks. The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't. The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards. Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win. And as a rookie he was 3-5 in games where he started & finished and completed <60%. Perhaps how well the QB plays contributes to whether or not the team wins, but W-L isn’t directly correlated with completion percentage?
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Billl said: The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks. The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't. The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards. Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win. That’s different than using the mythical 60% to define accuracy.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Horse ?. We've reached the point where a back shoulder throw is now a bad throw because Josh Allen. To this point, if anyone cares to look at Brett Kollman's The Film Room piece "Unfair Criticism" on Josh Allen's performance in the Ravens game (it's EXCELLENT), when Kollman critiques a throw Josh Allen missed to Foster early in the Ravens game - he points out and diagrams [4:49 in video] in that it should have instead been thrown EXACTLY as the ball was thrown to Brown, so that Foster could adjust on it (as Brown did on the correct throw placement in the Steelers game). [Shout out here to my man @Scorp83 who turned me on to Kollman; Brett is NOT a Buffalo fanboy and he has a ton of good stuff in his other vids on other QBs that aid fan understanding of blitz0, etc etc - strongly recommend him] Even Collinsworth in the Steelers game was praising that particular Allen pass to Brown, pointing out that it was a win-win - Allen put the ball where Brown could adjust and fight for the catch, and if he didn't get the catch he'd get the PI (he got both). IMO, part of the reason Allen placed the throw to Foster as he did is that he doesn't trust Foster to adjust on the ball and come back for it through coverage, defending if necessary to prevent the pick. But that's just an opinion. 1 1
eball Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Augie said: I hope we are arguing over whether he really deserved all seven of those Super Bowl MVPs! Yeah...I mean, after getting five of them it's just greedy.
Recommended Posts