Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I don't think I've ever really criticized Allen for completion %. I don't care about that stat at all. It's a pointless stat. A completed pass can still be a poorly thrown inaccurate pass. Many have already talked about drops. I never really cared much for the stat. I think the biggest simple stat I look at with QB's is TD:Turnover ratio. If Allen can give us 2:1 over his career i'de be very happy. 3:1 is elite territory. He gave us 29:13 in 2019. But he gave us 23:5 from week 5-17. He was 8:3 during that 5 game stretch vs good defense or playoff teams weeks 12-16. People should be optimistic. Forget about Josh Allen's completion %. It's actually one of the QB stats that is strongly correlated with success in the NFL ie winning TD/turnover ratio is also. 10 minutes ago, jrober38 said: That's how long the plays were. None of those passes went 40 yards or more in the air. I did math. I literally put the numbers into a calculator and that's what came out. Great, let's have the source for air yds vs yac on those passes? There's only 5, it's not an undue burden to request the numbers. [edit: I am mistaken. you're not talking "air yards" you're talking "40 yards or more in the air" IOW where the QB was when he threw, right?] Some of the stuff you toss out has been way off kilter (the number of rush attempts you say we should have vs historical average PPG) that I do think facts are a good thing Once we establish that you're using verified info, then we can move on to what it means - how does this compare to other QB and why do you think "completed passes over 40 air yds" means something significant
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: It's actually one of the QB stats that is strongly correlated with success in the NFL ie winning TD/turnover ratio is also. Great, let's have the source for air yds vs yac on those passes? There's only 5, it's not an undue burden to request the numbers. I just watched all 5 highlights. John Brown, Steelers - LOS = 30 yard line, ball caught Steelers' 35. Ball went 35 yards in the air. John Brown, Dolphins - LOS = Dol 40 yard line, ball caught 17 yard line. Ball went 23 yards in the air. John Brown, Patriots - LOS = Bills 47 yard line, ball caught Pats 20 yard line. Ball went 33 yards in the air. Dawson Knox, Bengals - LOS = Bills 29 yard line, ball caught Bills' 49 yard line. Ball went 20 yards in the air. Cole Beasley, Giants - LOS = Bills 35 yard line, ball caught Giants' 39 yard line. Ball went 26 yards in the air. The videos are easy to find. The longest pass Allen completed all year went 35 yards in the air. And the rush yards weren't intentionally off. When I checked mid season, the 49ers averaged 39 rush attempts per game. They ran the ball a LOT less down the stretch, which I wasn't aware of. Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that while you think that, you actually didn't bother to dig up a source and verify one way or the other. Note that the below doesn't separate air yards from YAC but elsewhere I believe it is opined that Allen's throws are too poor to allow YAC so, Pick One or go look up the plays and determine how many of each for yourself. This is just PFR, there are better sources out there that break things down more (Bonus question: how many completions over 40 yds other QB have?) Care to share that source? Not that I doubt you or anything, but it's always good to have another source to look into. None of those throws went 40 yards past the line. Beasley's was 25 yards. Knox's was 17. Brown's was 22 against Miami and nearly 40 against Pittsburg, but it was a poorly underthrown ball that Brown made a great play on. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: It's more about who the player is and style of play. Allen has never been a QB with good accuracy. It's unrealistic to expect a QB that struggled with accuracy in college to get much better with accuracy in the NFL. The guy you probably want to compare Allen to would be Matthew Stafford. A guy that struggled with accuracy in college and then early in the NFL. Stafford improved a lot and became consistent. So it can happen. It's just not something that happens often. I won't be surprised if Allen does become another Stafford though. The guy has changed the narrative on him. Maybe 10 years from now some college QB with accuracy issues looks to Allen as an example. I'll just point something out, then fair warning: I think I'll duck out of an exchange that seems more intent on being an echo chamber than a discussion "Accuracy" and "completion percentage" are not at all the same thing. The first is, does the ball get where the QB intends it to go, when it needs to get there? Now all QBs struggle with this, and Allen perhaps more than some, but he also has some QB abilities that other guys lack. "Completion percentage" depends upon all sorts of stuff: 1) What kind of plays are being called? Is it a vertical passing game? WCO? In between? 2) What reads in those plays is the QB taking? Lots of checkdowns or short over the middle passes? Lots of deep throws? 3) What kind of coverage are the receivers facing and what are their abilities? Are they wide open? Tightly covered? Able to make a contested catch? Able to adjust on the ball? 4) Are the WR and QB "on the same page" about route and ball placement? 5) The QB's actual throw - placement of ball, arc etc. 6) "Hands" of the WR The QB controls or has strong input into 3 of those 6 things. Before the draft, Beane and his merry men were well aware that Allen was by far the best player on his Wyo and Juco team, and that impacted completion percentage. They scrutinized every throw that Allen ever made and determined what factors went into its success or failure. And they came persuaded that Allen would be able to do his part to become a successful NFL QB. They didn't become persuaded of that because "Allen has never been a QB with good accuracy" is true as a blanket statement. "Allen has never been a QB with good completion percentage in college" is, of course, true, but the two aren't the same statement. 2
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'll just point something out, then fair warning: I think I'll duck out of an exchange that seems more intent on being an echo chamber than a discussion "Accuracy" and "completion percentage" are not at all the same thing. The first is, does the ball get where the QB intends it to go, when it needs to get there? Now all QBs struggle with this, and Allen perhaps more than some, but he also has some QB abilities that other guys lack. "Completion percentage" depends upon all sorts of stuff: 1) What kind of plays are being called? Is it a vertical passing game? WCO? In between? 2) What reads in those plays is the QB taking? Lots of checkdowns or short over the middle passes? Lots of deep throws? 3) What kind of coverage are the receivers facing and what are their abilities? Are they wide open? Tightly covered? Able to make a contested catch? Able to adjust on the ball? 4) Are the WR and QB "on the same page" about route and ball placement? 5) The QB's actual throw - placement of ball, arc etc. 6) "Hands" of the WR The QB controls or has strong input into 3 of those 6 things. Before the draft, Beane and his merry men were well aware that Allen was by far the best player on his Wyo and Juco team, and that impacted completion percentage. They scrutinized every throw that Allen ever made and determined what factors went into its success or failure. And they came persuaded that Allen would be able to do his part to become a successful NFL QB. They didn't become persuaded of that because "Allen has never been a QB with good accuracy" is true as a blanket statement. "Allen was never been a QB with good completion percentage in college" is, of course, true, but the two aren't the same statement. I recall before Allen was drafted reading a detailed report that charted every throw Allen made his last year in college, and they looked at accuracy and at ball placement. Instead of completion percentage, they looked at which passes were thrown on target and I think they even excluded throw away passes. Anyways, I'll try to find the link, but Allen was a far and away the least accurate QB in the 2018 draft based on the study, which factored in all of the things you're describing. Having watched him in a Bills uniform, I think it's fair to say he makes his receivers work more than he might have to. Balls aren't always thrown in the spot where the receiver can easily turn and run with it. His deep ball is incredibly inaccurate, with the ball often landing no where near its target. EDIT - I found the study, but the link is broken and the PDF is too big to post. Any solutions? Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 49 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw. I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. As is typical with regard to Allen, you’re incorrect because you shoot from the hip and don’t bother to verify if what you’re saying is factual. Per NextGen, Allen’s longest completed air distance was 50.1 yards. For reference, Lamar Jackson’s was 51.5; Mahomes was 54.9. Furthermore, Allen’s average completed air yards per pass was 6.2; same as Mahomes. Last but not least, John Brown had 3 receptions of over 40 yards and and average YAC of 2.8, so I seriously doubt that he was getting his receiving yardage on those big plays from anything besides a deep throw. This isn’t Hill-over-Brees territory, but it’s an awful post.
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: As is typical with regard to Allen, you’re incorrect because you shoot from the hip and don’t bother to verify if what you’re saying is factual. Per NextGen, Allen’s longest completed air distance was 50.1 yards. For reference, Lamar Jackson’s was 51.5; Mahomes was 54.9. Furthermore, Allen’s average completed air yards per pass was 6.2; same as Mahomes. Last but not least, John Brown had 3 receptions of over 40 yards and and average YAC of 2.8, so I seriously doubt that he was getting his receiving yardage on those big plays from anything besides a deep throw. This isn’t Hill-over-Brees territory, but it’s an awful post. Based on the video above none of this relating to Allen is true. The video evidence says your stats are completely wrong. Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, Billl said: None of those throws went 40 yards past the line. Beasley's was 25 yards. Knox's was 17. Brown's was 22 against Miami and nearly 40 against Pittsburg, but it was a poorly underthrown ball that Brown made a great play on. Horse ?. We've reached the point where a back shoulder throw is now a bad throw because Josh Allen. Have a look at this, and then try to tell me that deep ball receptions are always great throws: 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: Based on the video above none of this relating to Allen is true. The video evidence says your stats are completely wrong. Here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing Argue with the NFL, not me. At what point will you admit that your agenda is clouding your ability to be intellectually honest?
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Horse ?. We've reached the point where a back shoulder throw is now a bad throw because Josh Allen. Have a look at this, and then try to tell me that deep ball receptions are always great throws: Here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing Argue with the NFL, not me. At what point will you admit that your agenda is clouding your ability to be intellectually honest? The stats are wrong. Watch the videos I posted. They're all right there for you to click on. None of those stats are even remotely close to being true. Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38 1
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: The stats are wrong. Watch the videos I posted. They're all right there for you to click on. None of those stats are even remotely close to being true. Argue with the NFL. I’ll bet you didn’t even click the link ?
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Argue with the NFL. I’ll bet you didn’t even click the link ? Says the guy who didn't click on the obvious video evidence. Your bias is laughable. Allen can do no wrong. You'll believe fake facts even if they're easily disproven in about 30 seconds of video. Edited January 23, 2020 by jrober38
BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 The reason why I don't like the dismissal of completion percentage is it's one of the most essential metrics to use to measure QB success. (As well as YPA and TD/INT ratio) The reason is simple: for every "drop" there are circus catches caught. They basically negate each other. Receivers with their modern gloves can perform miracles with these gloves. I agree with Hapless that a big consideration to completion % is scheme. Mahomes will never have Brees completion % but his YPA cover this problem. I've seen Mahomes play games where he's 4/9 with 2 TDs throwing bombs and a YPA of 14. My other reason for liking this stat is confidence. By the 2nd quarter if you're 3/11 your confidence is shaken. Confidence is the hidden metric which makes marginal athletes into beasts. Physically speaking the 15th best WR and the 40th best WR isn't skill if they are about the same height and weight, it's their mental preparation and confidence. Take a guy like Allen who is still learning a lot on how to be a pro and I want him throwing dump-offs, slants, swings, and giving him confidence to know if he misses it's not a big deal. Conversely if we took this year to let Josh pass shorter passes does anyone think the magic number 17 points couldn't have also be achieved and a stat sheet of 17/24 and 190 yards wouldn't have done the same thing or better with a decent run game?
Stank_Nasty Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 38 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I just watched all 5 highlights. John Brown, Steelers - LOS = 30 yard line, ball caught Steelers' 35. Ball went 35 yards in the air. John Brown, Dolphins - LOS = Dol 40 yard line, ball caught 17 yard line. Ball went 23 yards in the air. John Brown, Patriots - LOS = Bills 47 yard line, ball caught Pats 20 yard line. Ball went 33 yards in the air. Dawson Knox, Bengals - LOS = Bills 29 yard line, ball caught Bills' 49 yard line. Ball went 20 yards in the air. Cole Beasley, Giants - LOS = Bills 35 yard line, ball caught Giants' 39 yard line. Ball went 26 yards in the air. The videos are easy to find. The longest pass Allen completed all year went 35 yards in the air. And the rush yards weren't intentionally off. When I checked mid season, the 49ers averaged 39 rush attempts per game. They ran the ball a LOT less down the stretch, which I wasn't aware of. in the broncos game he hit brown in a bucket 8 yds deep into the EZ where the LOS was the 34.... he threw it from the 40. 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 BTW the difference between jrober's stats and everyone else is because jrober is counting actual yards from the LOS, not from where threw it to a reception. In air yards isn't yards given to a QB, or rephrase it a QB who went back 40 yards thew it 10 yards past the LOS isn't a 50 yard pass.
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Horse ?. We've reached the point where a back shoulder throw is now a bad throw because Josh Allen. It wasn't a back shoulder throw. It was underthrown. There's a difference. Even the team site calls the catch "incredibly tough".
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: Says the guy who didn't click on the obvious video evidence. Your bias is laughable. Allen can do no wrong. You'll even believe fake facts even if they're easily disproven in about 30 seconds of video. Ah the old fallback of making ? up; if nothing else you’re consistent ? I’ve watched the plays; that’s how I know the difference between air yards and LOS to LOC distance unlike you. Air yards measures the distance from the location of the throw to the location of the catch. See, a deeper drop back and a throw across the field will have a greater air distance than a shallow drop throw to the middle of the field—even if the LOS and LOC are the same; math!! The difference between you and I is that I call it like I see it. I criticize the parts of Allen’s game that warrant it, and I applaud parts that warrant it. I don’t have a compulsory need to be “right” one way or another. You do...and it’s obvious to literally everyone on the board. And with each and every exchange in which you go to massive extremes and throw a hissy fit, making accusations about how anyone that sees your agenda thinks that Allen is perfect, you slide further into a credibility deficit. Get it together man. 1
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said: in the broncos game he hit brown in a bucket 8 yds deep into the EZ where the LOS was the 34.... he threw it from the 40. Good catch! I'm just going off the list of plays that were given to me. LOS is the 34, Brown catches the ball 4-5 yards into the end zone and dives to the ground to secure the ball. It's probably somewhere between a 40-41 yard pass, which would land in the club house as the new leader in the clubhouse for Allen's longest throw this year. 3 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: BTW the difference between jrober's stats and everyone else is because jrober is counting actual yards from the LOS, not from where threw it to a reception. In air yards isn't yards given to a QB, or rephrase it a QB who went back 40 yards thew it 10 yards past the LOS isn't a 50 yard pass. I don't think this is true. It makes things way too subjective. Every QB's air yards are calculated based off how far from the LOS the ball flies.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I recall before Allen was drafted reading a detailed report that charted every throw Allen made his last year in college, and they looked at accuracy and at ball placement. Instead of completion percentage, they looked at which passes were thrown on target and I think they even excluded throw away passes. Anyways, I'll try to find the link, but Allen was a far and away the least accurate QB in the 2018 draft based on the study, which factored in all of the things you're describing. Having watched him in a Bills uniform, I think it's fair to say he makes his receivers work more than he might have to. Balls aren't always thrown in the spot where the receiver can easily turn and run with it. His deep ball is incredibly inaccurate, with the ball often landing no where near its target. EDIT - I found the study, but the link is broken and the PDF is too big to post. Any solutions? Hmmm, according to @SDS there aren't size limits on attachments here. There might be a size limit on pasting in depending where you're posting from. I would say use a computer, save the file to your computer, and upload from the file. That would be one of the analytics guys, PFF or Football Outsiders. And that would be subject to the Achilles heal of analytics - they are making inferences about what they think the route is and etc. Which is how they come up with grades for OLmen that are often wildly out of sync with how the team grades them. What Beane and his crew were able to do is something very different - sit down with Allen and the coaches and the actual playsheets for the game and find out - what was the play call? What route were you expecting the WR to run? What happened? You can see a little example of this in The Wakeup Call with Kirk Cousins talking to Josh Allen. There is a checkdown throw to an RB that Allen makes that looks wildly inaccurate that they break down. It turns out the RB and Allen read the D differently, and the RB ran a route he should hve run for one coverage while Allen saw different coverage and threw accordingly.
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: Good catch! I'm just going off the list of plays that were given to me. LOS is the 34, Brown catches the ball 4-5 yards into the end zone and dives to the ground to secure the ball. It's probably somewhere between a 40-41 yard pass, which would land in the club house as the new leader in the clubhouse for Allen's longest throw this year. Math! Now do the rest of them and you’ll catch up to my first response ? 3 minutes ago, Billl said: It wasn't a back shoulder throw. It was underthrown. There's a difference. Even the team site calls the catch "incredibly tough". Hmmm...typically when the DB plays inside leverage and the WR hasn’t stacked him at the time of the throw, the QB is taught to throw back shoulder, which is usually why the WR knows when to break off and make the adjustment—otherwise a speedy guy like Smoke would waaaay overrun the throw and it’d be an easy pick.
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Ah the old fallback of making ? up; if nothing else you’re consistent ? I’ve watched the plays; that’s how I know the difference between air yards and LOS to LOC distance unlike you. Air yards measures the distance from the location of the throw to the location of the catch. See, a deeper drop back and a throw across the field will have a greater air distance than a shallow drop throw to the middle of the field—even if the LOS and LOC are the same; math!! The difference between you and I is that I call it like I see it. I criticize the parts of Allen’s game that warrant it, and I applaud parts that warrant it. I don’t have a compulsory need to be “right” one way or another. You do...and it’s obvious to literally everyone on the board. And with each and every exchange in which you go to massive extremes and throw a hissy fit, making accusations about how anyone that sees your agenda thinks that Allen is perfect, you slide further into a credibility deficit. Get it together man. You're living in a fantasy land. You're literally just saying things you want to be true. Straight from NextGen's Glossary: Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass. Give it up. Please stop making up blatant lies. 1 1
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