C.Biscuit97 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago? He did and was off to the best passing season of his career before the injuries caught up. Newton also completed 66% of his passes in the SEC. with Allen, everything we want him to be is a projection. It’s like when high school kids were allowed to go straight to the pros.
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Yeah. Helped raise his career average to 59%. Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then. 5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: He did! And even with that 14 game season his career % is 59.8. Much like you believe (and I agree) that gross yards are largely a product of attempts, I see completion percentage as a function of the offensive system in place. In 2017, Mike Shula was the OC. In 2018, it was Norv Turner. It certainly is a component of it, yeah. The thing I’ve always said about Cam is that the ball goes where it needs to go when it needs to go there. So far, that’s what Allen looks like as well. I am really hopeful that another offseason in the same system will slow the game down further for Josh. The big leap in his game will come when he doesn’t have to rush a throw because he made a (relatively) late decision or got around to his read later than he needed to. Last offseason I asked for Josh to do the following things in 2019: get more comfortable in the pocket, take more of what the defense gives him, and don’t rush throws. He accomplished about 2.5 of those 3. This offseason is all about immersing himself in the scheme and getting inside the heads of his skill position players. If he can do that, the passing game will be markedly better. 1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said: He did and was off to the best passing season of his career before the injuries caught up. Newton also completed 66% of his passes in the SEC. with Allen, everything we want him to be is a projection. It’s like when high school kids were allowed to go straight to the pros. Everything? I don’t agree with that at all. 2
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 39 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Why assume he can’t get better? Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again. Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases. I refer you to the math I did above. People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something. For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season. It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained. I don't think I've ever really criticized Allen for completion %. I don't care about that stat at all. It's a pointless stat. A completed pass can still be a poorly thrown inaccurate pass. Many have already talked about drops. I never really cared much for the stat. I think the biggest simple stat I look at with QB's is TD:Turnover ratio. If Allen can give us 2:1 over his career i'de be very happy. 3:1 is elite territory. He gave us 29:13 in 2019. But he gave us 23:5 from week 5-17. He was 8:3 during that 5 game stretch vs good defense or playoff teams weeks 12-16. People should be optimistic. Forget about Josh Allen's completion %. Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Why assume he can’t get better? Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again. Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases. I refer you to the math I did above. People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something. For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season. It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained. He means something when he is the 32nd ranked passer in the nfl and has never been a really been a 60% passer on any level. that said, he can still be really effective if they cater to his strengths. I think there were some good moments this year when they did that. 8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then. It certainly is a component of it, yeah. The thing I’ve always said about Cam is that the ball goes where it needs to go when it needs to go there. So far, that’s what Allen looks like as well. I am really hopeful that another offseason in the same system will slow the game down further for Josh. The big leap in his game will come when he doesn’t have to rush a throw because he made a (relatively) late decision or got around to his read later than he needed to. Last offseason I asked for Josh to do the following things in 2019: get more comfortable in the pocket, take more of what the defense gives him, and don’t rush throws. He accomplished about 2.5 of those 3. This offseason is all about immersing himself in the scheme and getting inside the heads of his skill position players. If he can do that, the passing game will be markedly better. Everything? I don’t agree with that at all. Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about. But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC. I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should. Especially with his physical tools.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then. Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede
thebandit27 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: He means something when he is the 32nd ranked passer in the nfl and has never been a really been a 60% passer on any level. that said, he can still be really effective if they cater to his strengths. I think there were some good moments this year when they did that. Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about. But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC. I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should. Especially with his physical tools. He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point. 8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game. To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO. 1
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. Why? Because you are not Nostradamus. 2
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point. If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game. To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO. You make very valid points. I definitely did see improvement from Allen as a passer this year. He was a much better mid range passer than last year. It’s about consistency. and imo, yes, he’s less talented than Cam and I don’t really get anyone can say different. I think some people don’t like Cam’s attitude but his resume is super legit. Dominate the best conference in football, won a Heisman, set rookie NFL passing records, broke qb rushing records, won a MVP with Ted Ginn as his #1 wr. It’s not even knocking Allen but Cam, with his flaws, is one of the most physical talent qbs to enter the nfl in recent history. Allen certainly has a lot of similar skills but I just think Cam is a better player.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point. If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game. To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO. The 1 year outlier is what you look at? I've never said he can't have a single season over 60%. He improved his completion % so much because it was so low. Again it's a stat I really don't take anything from. Rob Johnson had a much higher completion % than Doug Flutie. Who cares.
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 35 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I don't think I've ever really criticized Allen for completion %. I don't care about that stat at all. It's a pointless stat. A completed pass can still be a poorly thrown inaccurate pass. Many have already talked about drops. I never really cared much for the stat. I think the biggest simple stat I look at with QB's is TD:Turnover ratio. If Allen can give us 2:1 over his career i'de be very happy. 3:1 is elite territory. He gave us 29:13 in 2019. But he gave us 23:5 from week 5-17. He was 8:3 during that 5 game stretch vs good defense or playoff teams weeks 12-16. People should be optimistic. Forget about Josh Allen's completion %. I agree on this.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Why? Because you are not Nostradamus. Why? I watch him. You're basically saying Allen will become something he isn't. The thing you have to remember is even if Allen's career average ends up only 59% when it's all over it doesn't mean Allen wasn't a good QB. Allen is just a different style QB. Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede
Foxx Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield. Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot. If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB? It's the QB, obviously. It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously. We need to upgrade our offensive weapons. Allen needs to work on his game. Both are true. i'm not so sure. first of all, your post has a typo, Prescott throwing to Prescott. i think the main reason for Brown and Beasers 'career' years were the result of being the the top two available guys more than anything else. 17 hours ago, BigBillsFan said: I can't stand we're asking a raw QB to pass 60-70% of the game and running the ball when it makes no sense and developing plays that take 3-4 seconds instead of teaching Allen to take shorter routes and let the game come to him. this times 1000. we need to establish the ground game, be able to run between the tackles. let the game come to Allen, it will serve him much better in any/all respects. Edited January 23, 2020 by Foxx
oldmanfan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 43 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Why? I watch him. You're basically saying Allen will become something he isn't. The thing you have to remember is even if Allen's career average ends up only 59% when it's all over it doesn't mean Allen wasn't a good QB. Allen is just a different style QB. But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league. Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others. 1
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: True. Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them. I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw. I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good. His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy. I'm just super-curious how you know Allen's career trajectory so very exactly. 1
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good. His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy. I looked into it. Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs. Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw. I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that while you think that, you actually didn't bother to dig up a source and verify one way or the other. Note that the below doesn't separate air yards from YAC but elsewhere I believe it is opined that Allen's throws are too poor to allow YAC so, Pick One or go look up the plays and determine how many of each for yourself. This is just PFR, there are better sources out there that break things down more (Bonus question: how many completions over 40 yds other QB have?) 6 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I looked into it. Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs. Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%. Care to share that source? Not that I doubt you or anything, but it's always good to have another source to look into.
Billl Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league. Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others. Brees isn't A classic example. He's THE example. Who are these many others?
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league. Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others. It's more about who the player is and style of play. Allen has never been a QB with good accuracy. It's unrealistic to expect a QB that struggled with accuracy in college to get much better with accuracy in the NFL. The guy you probably want to compare Allen to would be Matthew Stafford. A guy that struggled with accuracy in college and then early in the NFL. Stafford improved a lot and became consistent. So it can happen. It's just not something that happens often. I won't be surprised if Allen does become another Stafford though. The guy has changed the narrative on him. Maybe 10 years from now some college QB with accuracy issues looks to Allen as an example. 1
jrober38 Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that while you think that, you actually didn't bother to dig up a source and verify one way or the other. Note that the below doesn't separate air yards from YAC but elsewhere I believe it is opined that Allen's throws are too poor to allow YAC so, Pick One or go look up the plays and determine how many of each for yourself. This is just PFR, there are better sources out there that break things down more (Bonus question: how many completions over 40 yds other QB have?) Care to share that source? Not that I doubt you or anything, but it's always good to have another source to look into. That's how long the plays were. None of those passes went 40 yards or more in the air. I did math. I literally put the numbers into a calculator and that's what came out.
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