Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Having receivers definitely helps.

 

Not missing deep balls by 5 yards also helps.

 

Better receivers won't help the thing Allen needs the most help with, which is his erratic deep ball accuracy. 

 

True.

 

Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

DATED DEC 20, 2010

 

The NFL's average completion percent seems to be leveling out right around 60 percent in recent years. For that reason, we're going to set the historical "average" completion percentage at 58 percent. The best seasonal completion percentage of all time is shared by two men.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/553290-passer-score-a-new-and-improved-statistic-for-measuring-quarterback-play

 

going to set the historical "average" completion percentage at 58 percent.

a decade and not much has changed 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.

Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins

 

The 13% was the QB, not the WR.

3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB

 

I think targets vs drops might be being conflated here.

 

There are a lot of things that go into completion percentage for a receiver - what kind of routes is he being asked to run, for example?  Are there route options and if so, to what degree are the QB and receiver on the same page about what option he’ll run/what pass the QB will throw?

 

It’s kind of notable that Hopkins catch # was about the same Watson’s first year and with Watson throwing to him, then skyrocketed.  That’s either the offense fine-tuning what works well between them, or Watson and Hopkins getting in sync on their route options.  

 

A couple of the QB throwing to Hopkins during his first seasons had higher completion % overall than to Hopkins; it’s far too simple to just say “it’s the QB”

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.

Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins

 

The 13% was the QB, not the WR.

3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

True.

 

Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them.

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't understand what all these comparisons to today's or yesterday's proven elite QB are supposed to accomplish.  Yeah you can find similar stats if you look selectively.  You can also find similar stats in QBs who failed to develop and were out of the league (or holding clipboards) after 3-4 years.

 

Allen needs to improve to be our long term QB.  He left makeable plays on the field and some of them would have won games.  He knows this.  We all know this.  He'll either take that step and improve, or he won't.  Only time will tell, time and how badly he wants it/how hard he is willing to work.

He improved as a passer between his rookie season (in which the GM admits his surrounding cast was far from good enough) and his 2nd season.  His completion % improved, his passing TD/INT improved, his YPG, TD% and INT% all improved.  The passer rating grid on NFL next gen stats shows improvement to most areas of the field.  AY/A and ANY/A improved.  Passer rating improved.  These are all things I know from research to be linked to QB performance a team can win with.  He's not quite there, but he's very close.

 

Some people don't know this, but they're just weird, or maybe selective about where they look and in the benchmarks they apply, or they place their trust in secret special sauce statistics, I don't know. 

 

Allen is an outlier as a QB prospect, a "sport" in the genetic sense.  He didn't follow anything close to the usual path for a QB prospect, as far as youth camps and coaches, college recruitment, level of talent around him, level of competition around him.  So various statistical comparisons or formulas developed from years of experience with prospects drawn from those paths probably don't mean too much when applied to him.

 

Even QB from those paths, improve on their own timeline.  Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers - yeah, what'd HE Look like after his first 3 seasons?.  There are two errors that get made with QB.  One is to hang on for too long to a QB who doesn't really have it.  The other is to move on too soon from a QB who really does. 

I agree but the argument seemed to boil down to a bizarre exercise in comparing Manning and Allen's first two seasons as evidence Allen will greatly improve which seemed odd to me.  So why not play along?  Simply pointing out that Manning's passing yards were higher didn't complete the whole picture because they're different prospects in different offenses.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Doc Brown

[2003Contenders]

56 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

Bingo!

 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

Oh absolutely I 100% agree with you. To dismiss WR talent is silly.

I just don't like the argument (which you didn't make) that Allen needs insane tools to make the game work. That's true of any QB that if they had world-class weapons it would benefit them.

 

I'm still of the opinion we need to draft a RT in the 1st 2 rounds, a real RT, or pay for one in FA and get a decent RB in the 2-4th rounds and get a dang coach who isn't afraid to run the ball even when they know you're going to run it because you have the scheme, and personnel to take pressure off of Allen and let him grow.

 

I hate the view a QB has to be Manning, or Elway. I think there is more value in having a less heroic QB and a better team. I can't stand we're asking a raw QB to pass 60-70% of the game and running the ball when it makes no sense and developing plays that take 3-4 seconds instead of teaching Allen to take shorter routes and let the game come to him.

 

The Philly game was an abomination, the playoffs were more of the same. I don't like clever ideas, I like intelligent. You don't have to out-smart someone, you just need to out-execute them.

 

If Allen just did dump offs, slants, screens and roll-outs with the occasional bomb I'd be HAPPY with that if we had an identity on offense with this defense. Want to improve accuracy? Make the targets bigger (closer) and then use his athleticism to keep teams honest. Reduce the amount of blitzes and let his mind adjust.

 

I want to see him succeed. I think he can, but he won't be like Montana, he'll be a better version of McNair if he blossoms and I'm more than happy with that and a strong identity on offense.

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

[Billl]

Dropped passes is a meaningless stat anyway.  23 players dropped 7 or more on the season.  Julian Edelman led league with 13. Others with 7+ include Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Davanta Adams, DK Metcalf, and Todd Gurley.

 

They aren't meaningless in terms of winning games, but they are statistically irrelevant.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

[reddogblitz]

16 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

 

I remember last year we had the 2:00 drop video that ticked us off.  Does anyone know if there is a similar one for this year?  How long is it?

 

One thing that concerns me is we greatly upgraded our talent at WR.  Yet the drops continue and are still an excuse.

 

I'm starting to wonder what part Josh plays in this if any?  Maybe he throws it too hard?  Not a good spiral?  Throws so many off target that when one hits a WR in the hands they don't know how to react?

 

Some of the other guys with a lot of drops this year were Mike Evans and Kelce.  I have noticed Kelce drops some footballs when watching their games.  Kelce however, has Patrick so if he drops one, Patrick will put the next one on him.  With Josh, said WR or TE may not get another chance with a decent pass.  That could be the difference.

 

If a guy gets a drop, the QB needs to be able to put another good pass in there.  Then he gets the same number of drops, but also more completions.

[dave mcbride]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

The announcers, if I recall correctly, said that there were gusts of up to 30 mph during the game. That said, I take your point and thanks for the clarification. Regardless, it was windy. The Broncos kicker said it was the hardest environment he has kicked in. https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/24/brandon-mcmanus-wind-kicking-broncos-bills/

 

Re getting hit, he didn't get hit AFTER he threw it; he was being hit pretty much WHILE he threw it:

.

Edited January 22, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Augie]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

 

I was told there would be no math! I hope there is no quiz coming!

 

.

40 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

 

One drop can decide a game, and in fact may have on some occasions. We’ll never know. I hope Josh plays better, and we learn to look the ball in and hold onto it. 

[BringBackOrton]

29 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I was told there would be no math! I hope there is no quiz coming!

 

.

 

One drop can decide a game, and in fact may have on some occasions. We’ll never know. I hope Josh plays better, and we learn to look the ball in and hold onto it. 

Oh come on. 

 

The Bills WR’s looked in a couple hundred balls this year. This is the nonsense I’m talking about. 

[Augie]

36 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Oh come on. 

 

The Bills WR’s looked in a couple hundred balls this year. This is the nonsense I’m talking about. 

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

His receivers do tend to drop a lot of passes.  Beasley, for example dropped 6 passes this season after dropping only 1 last year.  He also had a catch rate of 63% this season after having a rate of 75% last season.  Did he just forget how to catch, or do some QBs just throw better balls than others?

 

Drew Brees throws accurate passes.  He also throws them with touch and perfect spirals.  His receivers don't drop many balls.

 

Allen throws less accurate passes.  He hasn't mastered touch, and he throws a lot of wobblers.  His receivers drop more balls than other teams.

 

Is there a connection?  I don't know, but it would mane sense that a player catching passes that are consistently perfectly thrown is less likely to drop a ball than a player who is routinely forced to adjust.

 

Again.  Blaming Allen for the actual passes that were tracked as "drops" by the NFL is sheer stupidity.

 

Those are balls that SHOULD have been caught, no matter who is throwing it or how they're throwing it.

 

Allen can be blamed for his bad pass %, not for the balls his WRs drop.

 

Unreal 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I remember last year we had the 2:00 drop video that ticked us off.  Does anyone know if there is a similar one for this year?  How long is it?

One thing that concerns me is we greatly upgraded our talent at WR.  Yet the drops continue and are still an excuse.

 

Many of the excess drops this year trace to Dawson Knox.  I love the man, but 10 drops on 50 targets is just unacceptable.  Most of his drops were easy catches where he looked upfield before he finished looking the ball in.   That's like 7-8 drops more than league average.

 

That's the majority of the 10.8 "excess drops over league average"  right there.  Zay Jones had 1 drop of 18 targets, Duke Williams had 2 drops on 19.

 

John Brown had an average or expected number of drops on 115 targets and the 2nd best catch % of his career (best was with Carson Palmer), and 2% lower drops than last year with Lamar Jackson/Flacco.

 

Beasley had 1-2 drops over average on his 106 targets (0.8% more than average of 4.9%) which may have to do with expanding his role as a route runner - he was noticeably less comfortable with certain types of throws as opposed to the typical slot-receiver "put it on the numbers or put it in front of me right at the numbers" throws.  And yes, Allen does throw it with more "pepper" than he's used to and since he was rehabbing surgery and only started running routes in training camp, he had less time with Allen to adjust.

 

Quote

I'm starting to wonder what part Josh plays in this if any?  Maybe he throws it too hard?  Not a good spiral?  Throws so many off target that when one hits a WR in the hands they don't know how to react?

 

Frankly this sounds like a bit of agenda, especially this last.  In case you don't listen to Daboll and etc press conference, there's a lot of need for the WR/QB being on the same page in his offense - the WR decides what route variation to run based upon how he reads the DB, and the QB has to read both the DB and the WR's body language.  Even so a certain number of throws will be in a different place than the WR expects and he has to adjust.   That's just being a pro WR.

 

Beasley and Brown are experienced NFL WR who have had several NFL QB throwing to them, and that last is just bonkers.