transplantbillsfan Posted January 21, 2020 Author Posted January 21, 2020 10 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: All of that was said 50 pages ago and two dozen times over.
BringBackOrton Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: And our young QB did get better in his 2nd year. Significantly better. Peyton Manning threw 43 Interceptions in his first 2 years. In his rookie year the Colts were in the bottom 1/3rd in the NFL in total offense. They won 3 games his rookie year. This is Peyton freaking Manning, the best prospect to join the NFL since John Elway before him. Maybe you're expectations on improvement incrementally are just ridiculous. I know he did. He needs to continue to get better.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 21, 2020 Author Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said: I know he did. He needs to continue to get better. And soooooo????? WTF is up with you and your incessant need to bicker with everyone.
BringBackOrton Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: And soooooo????? WTF is up with you and your incessant need to bicker with everyone. Because you can Josh Allen has shown good signs without being dishonest about it?
reddogblitz Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: But even that one was an alternate, so didn't matter in the end. he got in the same way Tyrod did.
BigBillsFan Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 19 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Ah yes, the “pass happy” NFL. In which a team whose QB attempted 29 total passes in 2 games toppled the AFC’s 1 and 3 seeds. A league in which the NFC champions attempted a total of 8 passes on a 65 degree day. A league in which the best team in the regular season broke the all-time rushing yardage record. I don’t care if you want to make a point about completion percentage (though I suspect if “he’s 31st!!2!1!!!1!2!” is what you’ve got, then you probably don’t look all too closely at things), but don’t say blatantly false things. You might be surprised to learn you can't just run the ball without throwing it. The odds of you running the ball every play predictably looks like where the team tries to run out the game where they are usually 3 or 6 and out. What he said about passing was true and is true. The 8 passing a game by Tannehill won 2 games and SF won with 8 times. This is an anomaly. Look at the last 15 SB champions and every one of those teams were QB strong teams. It's not blatantly false, you're cherry picking
BigBillsFan Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Peyton Manning threw 43 Interceptions in his first 2 years. In his rookie year the Colts were in the bottom 1/3rd in the NFL in total offense. They won 3 games his rookie year. This is Peyton freaking Manning, the best prospect to join the NFL since John Elway before him. Maybe you're expectations on improvement incrementally are just ridiculous. The difference was Manning looked like an amazing QB growing into his skin. He threw for 3700 yards in year 1 and 4135 in year 2 when QBs rarely ever threw for 4,000 yards a game. His 1st game he threw for 302 yards. He did have 3 INTs but you knew he could throw. His 4th game he threw for another 300 yards, but another 3 INTs. Look if Josh did any of those things we would be calm. Manning's rookie season is like Jameis Winston in his 5th year with adjustments to the stats as 4,000 yards then is 5,000 now. Year 2 his team is 13-3 and threw for 4,135 yards. With stat inflation to today's game that would be like throwing 4,800-4,900 yards in today's game. I'm not comparing him to Peyton Manning, you did, I'm just pointing out that analogy is insane. I still think our best bet is to take the Big Ben approach and focus 100% of our attention on letting Josh throw 20-25 times a game and running it like crazy. The question that has to be asked is can we pay Josh a game manager salary or will he want the big bucks. Ben's contract was a 10% to salary cap. If Josh progresses the same way 10% is about right.
Foxx Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: But even that one was an alternate, so didn't matter in the end. just saw a ripe opportunity to ***** with you, couldn't let it by. it's all good. let's hope that at this time next year, Josh (our) Allen will have had to recuse himself from the Pro Bowl because he will be preparing for Tampa. 1
Zerovoltz Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 This whole thing isn't all that complicated. Allen and the Bills weren't efficient on offense in 2018. In 2019 there was improvement. They still aren't efficient enough. They need to continue to improve to be considered legitamate contenders. They have a lot of cap space. The draft is coming. The QB will be in his third year. Tom Brady is pretty much done. That is alot to be optimistic about. There are certainly legit reasons to be concerned, but 2020 is going to be an Allen led team with more seasoning and more parts added. If that doesn't translate to substantial improvements in offensive efficiency again in 2020, THEN you can start discussing how to move forward. You drafted a raw QB who was supposed to take YEARS to develop. He's developing....and its taking years. The roster needed alot of fixing and turnover. That also takes time. Many good moves to that end so far. You all are ON TRACK...you are on schedule. 7
thebandit27 Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said: You might be surprised to learn you can't just run the ball without throwing it. The odds of you running the ball every play predictably looks like where the team tries to run out the game where they are usually 3 or 6 and out. What he said about passing was true and is true. The 8 passing a game by Tannehill won 2 games and SF won with 8 times. This is an anomaly. Look at the last 15 SB champions and every one of those teams were QB strong teams. It's not blatantly false, you're cherry picking Oh really? Cherry picking huh? The best 2 teams in the NFL this season were Baltimore and SF. What do they have in common? Each lead their respective conference in rushing attempts. Moreover, if you look at the NFL landscape, you notice that 10 of the top 13 teams in total rushing attempts made the playoffs. The anomalies are the pass-happy teams; only 2 of the top 10 teams in pass attempts made the playoffs. What you believe to be a pass-happy league is merely an overreaction to the relative success of teams like KC and LAR. And even then, that overreaction ignores the fact that the Rams ranked 8th in rushing attempts in 2018. If you look at even the last 10 seasons, the teams that run the ball the most tend to make the playoffs quite reliably. Nobody said that a team doesn’t need a “strong QB” to win a Super Bowl. But you’re kidding yourself if you believe that pass-pass-pass is somehow the new model for sustained success. Though I suppose it’s possible that KC will pull a rabbit and beat SF throwing the ball all over the field...looking at the matchup, however, I doubt it. 1
thebandit27 Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, ScottLaw said: Along with the fact that SF's defense is much better. I expect a SF win despite how good Mahomes has been/is. I have no idea how KC plans to stop that running attack. Maybe they get lucky and Coleman can’t go, which takes another speed back out of the rotation and leaves SF relying heavily on Mostert with Brieda/Wilson spelling him. Maybe Reggie Ragland ends up playing more snaps and Clark/Jones/Nnadi show that their more than just good pass rushers. Even if that happens, can KC pass protect against a SF front that’s 5 first-round picks deep and backed by 3 speedy LBs and a secondary that features Sherman/Ward/Tartt? That’s a darn tall order. To say that I’m a Mahomes guy is an all-time understatement; in fact I might be known as The Mahomes Guy ‘round these parts. But man, he’s going to have to be heroic to pull this off.
teef Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Along with the fact that SF's defense is much better. I expect a SF win despite how good Mahomes has been/is. i kinda do too. i'm more excited for this superbowl than most i can remember. 1
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Oh really? Cherry picking huh? The best 2 teams in the NFL this season were Baltimore and SF. What do they have in common? Each lead their respective conference in rushing attempts. Moreover, if you look at the NFL landscape, you notice that 10 of the top 13 teams in total rushing attempts made the playoffs. The anomalies are the pass-happy teams; only 2 of the top 10 teams in pass attempts made the playoffs. What you believe to be a pass-happy league is merely an overreaction to the relative success of teams like KC and LAR. And even then, that overreaction ignores the fact that the Rams ranked 8th in rushing attempts in 2018. If you look at even the last 10 seasons, the teams that run the ball the most tend to make the playoffs quite reliably. Nobody said that a team doesn’t need a “strong QB” to win a Super Bowl. But you’re kidding yourself if you believe that pass-pass-pass is somehow the new model for sustained success. Though I suppose it’s possible that KC will pull a rabbit and beat SF throwing the ball all over the field...looking at the matchup, however, I doubt it. Interesting that you're using passing and rushing ATTEMPTS in your argument. I suspect your argument weakens quite a bit when you look at more sophisticated numbers. Obviously teams that can score quickly and efficiently will often be up big resulting in more rushing attempts to run out the clock. Also, if a team has a higher YPA while passing, in theory, they would have less pass attempts since less attempts are needed to score.
thebandit27 Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Chemical said: Interesting that you're using passing and rushing ATTEMPTS in your argument. I suspect your argument weakens quite a bit when you look at more sophisticated numbers. Obviously teams that can score quickly and efficiently will often be up big resulting in more rushing attempts to run out the clock. Also, if a team has a higher YPA while passing, in theory, they would have less pass attempts since less attempts are needed to score. Um, yes, what better indicator is there of a “pass happy” league than pass attempts? Also, it appears that you’re saying that it’s about efficiency and not going all pass-happy? Then I guess we’re in agreement.
YattaOkasan Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: This isn't the goddamn Olympics bro. Rankings in accuracy just don't matter if you fall in a window. You're right. Allen's on target percentage was 21st this season. I suspect last season it was dead last. Major improvement. I think the idea of Top 4 > 4-8 > Middle (9-23) > 24-28 > Bottom 4 is useful. Basically 9-23 is all the same and there isnt much difference between them. Its only when you get near the edges that you see an appreciable difference. So from this regards Josh is what I though which is average, and I agree thats a big improvement from last year. 4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said: The difference was Manning looked like an amazing QB growing into his skin. He threw for 3700 yards in year 1 and 4135 in year 2 when QBs rarely ever threw for 4,000 yards a game. His 1st game he threw for 302 yards. He did have 3 INTs but you knew he could throw. His 4th game he threw for another 300 yards, but another 3 INTs. Look if Josh did any of those things we would be calm. HAHAHAHA. This place would explode if josh had that many interceptions. everyone would say his 300 yards were in garbage time when the game was out of hand already. We've been winning and in tight games so he hasnt had to throw for a ton of yards yet. The few times they have asked a lot of the passing game (and offense generally) it hasnt really delivered. Some of that is on Josh some of it is on others. I am happy with Josh's progression while we win and Mannings stat line for QB growth has got to be a statistical outlier. 1
Zerovoltz Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 Buffalo had 183 Drives/offensive possesions in 2019. They only scored 1.66 points per drive. This tells you a couple things. 1. That many drives is a pretty high number. That's top 10 in the NFL. It means either the other team scored quickly and you had a high number of possesions, or your D was stout, got turnovers and got your O the ball alot. It would seem the latter to be the case here. This would be where the little things that a Comp% number being lower than average, would show up. ....and what I mean is, if you miss a couple of completions in a game that might have put your in field goal range, or converted a third down to keep a drive alive that might have ended up getting points....then you accumulate these over a season....it's a huge difference. Most NFL games are pretty close. You can usually point to a few big plays here or there that make a difference, but often, there are 2 or 3 little things that happen...drop, bad pass, bad route....whatever the case may be....where it doesn't seem big at the time, but what if you converted that 3rd down? What if you got into FG range instead of punting there? You have to make these little plays alot more often than not. And it's easier said than done......but this is where Allen and the offense have got to be better....squeezing more points out of each possesion, and you do that over a season by making a few more 3rd downs...kicking a few more FG's because you got in range...and finishing off 1 or 2 more drives a game with a 7 because you converted and kept a drive going instead of punting or taking the FG. I've heard a TON of arguments about Alex Smith being a good QB for KC, surrounded by weapons and good coaching. ...and for the most part that was true. But Alex Smith was NOT efficient at this stuff very often. He'd throw short on 3rd down or run short of the sticks....he'd not make the conversion in the red zone and we'd settle for 3 instead of finishing off with 7. It shows up in these drive numbers. KC has had FEWER drives each year since 2017, but have longer drives, each year, with more points per drive since going with Mahomes. Hill, Kelce, ...Hunt in 2017, but committee in 2018 and 2019. the Bills were 3rd in the NFL in 2018 with 193 drives. Good D giving the O the ball. The O was horribly inefficient. 1.39 points per drive...3rd worst. There was improvement in 2019. 183 drives, still very high, but 1.66 points per drive and 2:34 of possesion per drive. Those are still bottom 1/3 numbers for offenses. For the Bills to be an actual threat on offense....it's going to take a pretty big leap in EFFICIENCY. A big part of that is the passing game....not big plays so much as making the little ones way more frequently. Buffalo had plenty of big plays. It can happen. Need to keep trending upward...need Allen to make another good leap forward. Add another good weapon or 2. 4 1
JaCrispy Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said: I think the idea of Top 4 > 4-8 > Middle (9-23) > 24-28 > Bottom 4 is useful. Basically 9-23 is all the same and there isnt much difference between them. Its only when you get near the edges that you see an appreciable difference. So from this regards Josh is what I though which is average, and I agree thats a big improvement from last year. HAHAHAHA. This place would explode if josh had that many interceptions. everyone would say his 300 yards were in garbage time when the game was out of hand already. We've been winning and in tight games so he hasnt had to throw for a ton of yards yet. The few times they have asked a lot of the passing game (and offense generally) it hasnt really delivered. Some of that is on Josh some of it is on others. I am happy with Josh's progression while we win and Mannings stat line for QB growth has got to be a statistical outlier. You laugh but the sad part is Josh can’t even get 300 yards in garbage time... BigBillsFan makes the point that even though rookie and 2nd year QBs make mistakes, you still see glimpses of greatness as passers (300 yard games, 3500 yds+ per season, 4/5 TD games)...you don’t see that with Josh... Josh’s best is still “scraping the bottom of the barrel“ of the league...people say he is raw yet he’s been playing his whole life... even in the over time game, Josh wasn’t close to 300 even when they tried passing on almost every play in the extra quarter... To say it’s a little concerning 2 seasons in is an understatement... Edited January 21, 2020 by JaCrispy 1
Big Gun Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: You laugh but the sad part is Josh can’t even get 300 yards in garbage time... BigBillsFan makes the point that even though rookie and 2nd year QBs make mistakes, you still see glimpses of greatness as passers (300 yard games, 3500 yds+ per season, 4/5 TD games)...you don’t see that with Josh... Josh’s best is still “scraping the bottom of the barrel“ of the league...people say he is raw yet he’s been playing his whole life... even in the over time game, Josh wasn’t close to 300 even when they tried passing on almost every play in the extra quarter... To say it’s a little concerning 2 seasons in is an understatement... When were the Bills in garbage time? 4
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 16 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The defensive end or the quarterback? DE natch. @Foxx be trollin' us 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, pop gun said: When were the Bills in garbage time? Don't confuse him with the facts, man. I think you could make an argument for 4Q vs the Eagles. We had scored to make it 13-17 in the 3rd, then our D promptly gave up another TD and it was pretty clear the Bills D had no answer for "inside zone left" Only time we weren't in it with a real chance to at least tie late in the game.
Recommended Posts