Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’d like to see proof of that please.

 

Of what?  That I made the argument about Fitz once?  It's in the archives. 

 

That it's genuinely hard for a QB in the NFL to up his game by changing just a few plays?  I think that's pretty evident.  If it were so easy, a gaggle of meh QB would level up.

 

That in every game where there are a few catches a Bills player didn't make that would raise his level, there are 2-3 plays a game the other team ISN'T making that would ?  Just look at Houston - there were 2 picks dropped and a fumble where he was ruled down.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’d like to see proof of that please.

Oh really? So teams don’t gameplan against John Brown? He was the leading AFC reciever for 3/4ths of the year and they just don’t bring him up in the film room? They just talk about Josh, and when the DB coach is like “what about his receivers?” they laugh and all go get ice cream instead?

 

Teams gameplan against everybody. Yes, teams worry more about Deandre Hopkins than they do against John Brown. I’d like another weapon or two on offense myself. But John Brown is a player teams account for.

I’m pretty sure that you know exactly what I meant.

 

Let me ask it this way: when was the last time you saw John Brown facing any coverage that wasn’t straight man?

 

When teams game plan against Buffalo, they’re game planning to not get beat by Josh Allen. They aren’t in their film room worried that John Brown is going to tear them apart. 
 

Case in point: tell me your game plan to stop the Chiefs. Or the Rams. Or the Saints.

Edited January 20, 2020 by thebandit27

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Of what?  That I made the argument about Fitz once?  It's in the archives. 

 

That it's genuinely hard for a QB in the NFL to up his game by changing just a few plays?  I think that's pretty evident.  If it were so easy, a gaggle of meh QB would level up.

 

That in every game where there are a few catches a Bills player didn't make that would raise his level, there are 2-3 plays a game the other team ISN'T making that would ?  Just look at Houston - there were 2 picks dropped and a fumble where he was ruled down.

The drops stat.

Just now, thebandit27 said:

I’m pretty sure that you know exactly what I meant.

 

Let me ask it this way: when was the last time you saw John Brown facing any coverage that wasn’t straight man?

I know exactly what you meant. When’s the last time Josh faced much coverage that wasn’t straight man? 

 

It’s total hyperbole to pretend like Josh is still throwing to Zay and KB and to treat this offense accordingly. No, Josh isn’t throwing to the greatest offensive weapons. But he’s not throwing to dudes who don’t belong in the league. You don’t have to pretend John Brown and Cole Beasley are garbage to prop up Josh. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

The drops stat.

 

I didn't mention a drops stat?

 

 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

The drops stat.

I know exactly what you meant. When’s the last time Josh faced much coverage that wasn’t straight man? 

 

It’s total hyperbole to pretend like Josh is still throwing to Zay and KB and to treat this offense accordingly. No, Josh isn’t throwing to the greatest offensive weapons. But he’s not throwing to dudes who don’t belong in the league. You don’t have to pretend John Brown and Cole Beasley are garbage to prop up Josh. 

Who did that?

 

It’s pretty obvious that Allen is the closest thing on this offense to a “key” that defenses need to stop. It’s also plainly obvious that that has to change in order to take a big step in scoring.

 

Add AJ Green (even if he’s 80% of what he used to be), Austin Hooper, and Carlos Hyde to the skill positions and I’ll guarantee you that opposing DCs have to change their game plan.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Along with another high draft pick at WR and I'd love it. 

Yes. Get me Green and Ruggs and watch Belichick ? himself trying to defend a quartet of those two plus Smoke and Beasley.

 

Wanna go small and fast against me? Fine. I’ll put Hooper and Knox out there with Green and knock your block off.

 

Wanna go big? Great. I’m lining up with Smoke, Ruggs, Beasley, and McKenzie.

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Yes. Get me Green and Ruggs and watch Belichick ? himself trying to defend a quartet of those two plus Smoke and Beasley.

 

Wanna go small and fast against me? Fine. I’ll put Hooper and Knox out there with Green and knock your block off.

 

Wanna go big? Great. I’m lining up with Smoke, Ruggs, Beasley, and McKenzie.

That’s Belichick’s own playbook from when they had two good TEs along with an elite slot receiver and decent wideouts and would play a tempo game when he caught you in unfavorable sub packages. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

That’s Belichick’s own playbook from when they had two good TEs along with an elite slot receiver and decent wideouts and would play a tempo game when he caught you in unfavorable sub packages. 

Hmmm...if only we had one of his former offensive coaches that knew how to take advantage of such a situation and a QB that can run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense

?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yeah man, John Brown was never the #1 option on those teams. Last year he was a top 20ish reciever in the NFL when he was given his shot. Thems the breaks.

 

If Josh “has no weapons,” we should just cut him and Beasley and start over I guess.

 

He was the 39th ranked WR in yards and 49th in yards per game.?

 

Going to extremes(We should just cut Brown and Beasley) doesn't add any value to your argument, it does the exact opposite.

 

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Yes. Get me Green and Ruggs and watch Belichick ? himself trying to defend a quartet of those two plus Smoke and Beasley.

 

Wanna go small and fast against me? Fine. I’ll put Hooper and Knox out there with Green and knock your block off.

 

Wanna go big? Great. I’m lining up with Smoke, Ruggs, Beasley, and McKenzie.

 

Or, just run Gore between the tackles.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Or, just run Gore between the tackles.

 

You're a Bad Man, Gugny.  A Very Bad Man.

[Foxx]

@transplantbillsfan

 

Josh Allen was just added to the Pro Bowl.

[JoPoy88]

18 minutes ago, Foxx said:

@transplantbillsfan

 

Josh Allen was just added to the Pro Bowl.

The defensive end or the quarterback?

[Foxx]

3 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

The defensive end or the quarterback?

shhhhhhh..... you'll ruin trans' day/night/week.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Foxx

[John from Riverside]

The DE

 

Our Josh Allen's time will come

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

@transplantbillsfan

 

Josh Allen was just added to the Pro Bowl.

 

But even that one was an alternate, so didn't matter in the end.

[BringBackOrton]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I didn't mention a drops stat?

 

 

You commented on my post about it.

17 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

That’s still a leap. 5 losses one score or less. Seeing as Josh had 461 attempts, and threw TD’s at a 4.3% rate, that means that 20 of those attempts ended in TD’s. So out of those 7 drops, you’d “bank” that one of those 7 would have resulted in a score? The math doesn’t hold up. It’s not even close really. Even if you’d argue they’d extend a drive and possibly lead to a score (again, not likely), the math works against you.

 

Bad throws don’t factor into drops? I’d like to hear how you came up with that assertion. If a ball is thrown behind or low or high to a target, and he gets hands on it but doesn’t reel it in, you’re sure it doesn’t count as a drop? 

 

Yes Allen improved over dead last. That’s nice.

 

I care about on target percentage. Because that factor doesn’t get altered by drops, which you LOVE to point to. It’s a pure accuracy number. Allen is 21st. He is in the bottom half of the league in accuracy. That’s not good. I don’t care about completion percentage, I care about accuracy.

 

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is probably true. 

 

I just want to put up two caveats:

1) On the flip side, there may be 2-3 plays a game that the other team ISN"T making on Josh that would sink him from B- level to C- or D level (potential INTs that were dropped, fumbles where he was ruled down or we recovered

2) I once made your argument about Fitz - that he was a handful of catches per game away from being The Man for us.  A few catches his WRs dropped or didn't haul in; a few misfires that needed to be more accurate.  He never got there and I was proven wrong.

 

The point being, it's genuinely hard for a QB in the NFL to up his game those few catches.  I think we need to give Allen more playmakers and level-up the OL, but there's going to be a big part of this that's on him, between his ears and in how much attention to detail he's willing to put on his own technique and how hard he's willing to buckle down and drill.

 

 

 

Yes.

 

7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Who did that?

 

It’s pretty obvious that Allen is the closest thing on this offense to a “key” that defenses need to stop. It’s also plainly obvious that that has to change in order to take a big step in scoring.

 

Add AJ Green (even if he’s 80% of what he used to be), Austin Hooper, and Carlos Hyde to the skill positions and I’ll guarantee you that opposing DCs have to change their game plan.

The dude who said Josh has no weapons?

6 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

He was the 39th ranked WR in yards and 49th in yards per game.?

 

Going to extremes(We should just cut Brown and Beasley) doesn't add any value to your argument, it does the exact opposite.

 

John Brown was 21st in recieving yards last year. Per PFR. That’s on 15 games played too. I’d like to see what stat you’re referencing.

 

You’re the one who said we had “no weapons.” Sounds like we need to replace them if that’s the case. Or maybe we do have weapons?

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Our QB didn’t scare opponents much either.

 

I get it. We need more offensive weapons. I don’t disagree. But even good offensive weapons and a good OC and a good OL don’t hide a deficient QB forever. Your QB has to get better too. Allen, John Brown and Beasley had career years, that says something about the OC as well.

 

And our young QB did get better in his 2nd year.

 

Significantly better.

 

22 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

 

Having great weapons would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great OC would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great QB would be great and would make this offense look better. But out of those three, the one with the biggest impact is QB. If you could choose between prime Andy Reid, prime Deandre Hopkins and prime Peyton Manning, you’d take Manning. Everyone would. Josh is our guy now and he’s our guy going forward but for sustained success we need a great QB. Andy Reid has had bad offenses. Deandre Hopkins has had bad offenses. Peyton Manning never did. I hope Josh gets on that level one day. 

 

Peyton Manning threw 43 Interceptions in his first 2 years.

 

In his rookie year the Colts were in the bottom 1/3rd in the NFL in total offense.

 

They won 3 games his rookie year.

 

This is Peyton freaking Manning, the best prospect to join the NFL since John Elway before him.

 

Maybe you're expectations on improvement incrementally are just ridiculous.

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Sorry Orton....that is not really true

 

There are literally like 2 to 3 plays a game right now that are separating Josh Allen from being a "B" level qb and a "A" level qb. 

 

Those 3 plays are decided by a playmaker actually catching a ball that is thrown to them/Not thrown perfectly to them and a play being made.

 

Case in point....in this year's wild card game Josh Allen threw two passes that absolutely should have been caught by a quality WR for touchdowns.....they were not.....if they are caught we WIN that game and who knows what happens next.

 

Josh Allen needs more playmakers

 

Yep. Duke and Isaiah catch those very catchable TDs--and unbelievable throws on Josh's part, particularly with the Duke pass--and Brown is able to do the routine WR toe drag--there's an entire friggin segment Nate Burleson does on GMFB dedicated solely to that very act--and the WC game flips from disaster for Josh to clutch road playoff win.

 

Better weapons or at least more chemistry with the ones we have. Pretty simple.

 

I'm honestly very excited about Dawson Knox. I believe he can be a dominant TE if he can catch the damn ball.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

That’s still a leap. 5 losses one score or less. Seeing as Josh had 461 attempts, and threw TD’s at a 4.3% rate, that means that 20 of those attempts ended in TD’s. So out of those 7 drops, you’d “bank” that one of those 7 would have resulted in a score? The math doesn’t hold up. It’s not even close really. Even if you’d argue they’d extend a drive and possibly lead to a score (again, not likely), the math works against you.

 

No of course I'm not saying one of those 7 would be a TD... stop being so obstinate.

 

18 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

 

Bad throws don’t factor into drops? I’d like to hear how you came up with that assertion. If a ball is thrown behind or low or high to a target, and he gets hands on it but doesn’t reel it in, you’re sure it doesn’t count as a drop? 

 

Sheesh. So you believe they factor a single throw into 2 categories? You believe a throw by a QB is factored as both drop AND bad throw?

 

Let me help you. It's not.

 

18 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

 

Yes Allen improved over dead last. That’s nice.

 

I care about on target percentage. Because that factor doesn’t get altered by drops, which you LOVE to point to. It’s a pure accuracy number. Allen is 21st. He is in the bottom half of the league in accuracy. That’s not good. I don’t care about completion percentage, I care about accuracy.

 

This isn't the goddamn Olympics bro. Rankings in accuracy just don't matter if you fall in a window.

 

You're right. Allen's on target percentage was 21st this season. I suspect last season it was dead last.

 

Major improvement.

 

Plus, this year his on target percentage was better than Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and Carson Wentz.

 

He was 0.2% less accurate (because now I'm just assuming you're using that as a gauge for accuracy) than Kyler Murray. That number equates to LESS THAN one throw on Allen's entire season.

 

He was 1.5% less accurate than Aaron Rodgers. 

 

Yeah. Allen can obviously get better. That's been acknowledged by everyone including him.

 

But that doesn't mean we can't also acknowledge the significant improvement we saw from him in 2019.

14 hours ago, papazoid said:

2019 @ 58.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....32nd best.....NOT  GOOD  !!

 

2018 @ 52.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....33rd best

 

only in blind fandom do people sell this as a great improvement

 

it's a pass happy league where everyone's stats are on the rise.

 

6% improvement is significant improvement.

 

Not blind fandom... this is a simple truth.