BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: The better qb play will happen as better players start doing something with the balls being thrown to them we literally do not win 50 50 balls because of lack of players that can fight for them The better QB play will happen with better QB play. Whether that’s from Josh or another player remains to be seen.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 20, 2020 Author Posted January 20, 2020 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: So many leaps here. 7 more catches over the course of 6 losses equals “conservatively” 1 or 2 more wins? When 5 losses were 1 score or less? Yes. I'd bank on at least one. 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: 65.5% sounds pretty until you pair it with the context of the rest of the NFL. Josh had 3 more drops than Jimmy G and Jimmy G is in the Super Bowl. But Josh had 24 more bad throws than Jimmy G. Maybe that’s contributing to the drop rate a tiny bit? No. It's not. Bad throws are bad throws that couldn't possibly be dropped. Do you not understand how strictly these drops are tracked? Bad throws wouldn't even factor into them. At all. Yes. Allen has too many bad throws. Yes. Our receivers dropped more passes than any team in the NFL. These 2 things aren't mutually exclusive. 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: Josh Allen is 21st in the NFL for on target throw percentage. Calling him the 21st most accurate QB sounds about right. Great. That's a significant improvement over dead last in 2018. 21st in completion percentage this year was 62%. Those equating accuracy with completion percentage can pretend that was the actual number. Not good enough. But not bad. That's exactly how I think his accuracy in 2019 should be described. 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: If he gets up to 16 or higher next year, that would be great. Agreed. But are you talking about on target % or completion percentage? Not the same thing. Considering the jump he made from year 1 to year 2, I feel good about that jump. 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: And we can talk OL, but Josh was the 5th most blitzed QB in the NFL, but the 21st most hurried QB in the NFL last year. And soooo???? 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: In summary, drops suck. I want less of them. But pointing at them like this great big offensive flaw just does not hold up to scrutiny. It doesn't? You're gonna have to explain how Allen having by far the highest drop percentage in the NFL shouldn't be considered when talking about his accuracy.
John from Riverside Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 Sorry Orton....that is not really true There are literally like 2 to 3 plays a game right now that are separating Josh Allen from being a "B" level qb and a "A" level qb. Those 3 plays are decided by a playmaker actually catching a ball that is thrown to them/Not thrown perfectly to them and a play being made. Case in point....in this year's wild card game Josh Allen threw two passes that absolutely should have been caught by a quality WR for touchdowns.....they were not.....if they are caught we WIN that game and who knows what happens next. Josh Allen needs more playmakers 6
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: When 5 losses were 1 score or less? Yes. I'd bank on at least one. No. It's not. Bad throws are bad throws that couldn't possibly be dropped. Do you not understand how strictly these drops are tracked? Bad throws wouldn't even factor into them. At all. Yes. Allen has too many bad throws. Yes. Our receivers dropped more passes than any team in the NFL. These 2 things aren't mutually exclusive. Great. That's a significant improvement over dead last in 2018. 21st in completion percentage this year was 62%. Those equating accuracy with completion percentage can pretend that was the actual number. Not good enough. But not bad. That's exactly how I think his accuracy in 2019 should be described. Agreed. But are you talking about on target % or completion percentage? Not the same thing. Considering the jump he made from year 1 to year 2, I feel good about that jump. And soooo???? It doesn't? You're gonna have to explain how Allen having by far the highest drop percentage in the NFL shouldn't be considered when talking about his accuracy. That’s still a leap. 5 losses one score or less. Seeing as Josh had 461 attempts, and threw TD’s at a 4.3% rate, that means that 20 of those attempts ended in TD’s. So out of those 7 drops, you’d “bank” that one of those 7 would have resulted in a score? The math doesn’t hold up. It’s not even close really. Even if you’d argue they’d extend a drive and possibly lead to a score (again, not likely), the math works against you. Bad throws don’t factor into drops? I’d like to hear how you came up with that assertion. If a ball is thrown behind or low or high to a target, and he gets hands on it but doesn’t reel it in, you’re sure it doesn’t count as a drop? Yes Allen improved over dead last. That’s nice. I care about on target percentage. Because that factor doesn’t get altered by drops, which you LOVE to point to. It’s a pure accuracy number. Allen is 21st. He is in the bottom half of the league in accuracy. That’s not good. I don’t care about completion percentage, I care about accuracy. Edited January 20, 2020 by BringBackOrton
Billy Claude Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 (edited) To improve from last to 21st in accuracy in one year is pretty impressive and is not too bad for a second year qb (assuming you are not Mahomes). Its better than I thought he did. I would be pretty happy if Allen can get into the top 15 in accuracy next year. I don't think he will ever get into the top 10 in accuracy but with his other skill set (running etc.) and keeping turnovers to a minimum, Allen can be a pretty effective QB. On how the drops effect the games: Obviously the extra drops don't affect the outcome of the games they won and they won 60% so out of those 7 drops you would only expect 2 or 3 in the 6 games the Bills lost. So basically, you have to assume 1 extra drop would have effected the outcome of the game. Its certainly possible but to me, it is unlikely. Certainly I don't see how you can have confidence that one drop would have swung the game. Finally on counting drops. -- I believe that the "official" drops are only counted for balls that are easily catchable without a defender in the immediate vicinity, i.e., something you would expect an NFL WR to catch 90% of the time. Bad throws are not counted as drops -- its not like the discussion on the board last summer where someone said basically anything reachable was a drop. Edited January 20, 2020 by Billy Claude 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 3 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Sorry Orton....that is not really true There are literally like 2 to 3 plays a game right now that are separating Josh Allen from being a "B" level qb and a "A" level qb. Those 3 plays are decided by a playmaker actually catching a ball that is thrown to them/Not thrown perfectly to them and a play being made. Case in point....in this year's wild card game Josh Allen threw two passes that absolutely should have been caught by a quality WR for touchdowns.....they were not.....if they are caught we WIN that game and who knows what happens next. Josh Allen needs more playmakers That's not true either. He's a "D-" QB as a passer, and if he makes it to C I'm happy. A "C" is Andy Dalton 5 years ago. If you have a "C" passer with an "A" athlete that would make him borderline elite with a 220-240 yards passing, 60-63% completion, and 30 yards rushing as it would benefit the running game to keep a linebacker honest. The 2-3 pass per game = elite is not an argument. Mahomes had a ton of drops yesterday and a bunch more against the Texans. He had 5 before the half with the Texans, and he still turned it around with more drops during the comeback with 28 points in a quarter. Mahomes has more playmakers, but he has drops. Elite WRs are insanely rare, you just want good ones. Will Fuller isn't elite, but he's big enough to be open and have a ton of receptions. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 4 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Sorry Orton....that is not really true There are literally like 2 to 3 plays a game right now that are separating Josh Allen from being a "B" level qb and a "A" level qb. Those 3 plays are decided by a playmaker actually catching a ball that is thrown to them/Not thrown perfectly to them and a play being made. Case in point....in this year's wild card game Josh Allen threw two passes that absolutely should have been caught by a quality WR for touchdowns.....they were not.....if they are caught we WIN that game and who knows what happens next. Josh Allen needs more playmakers This is probably true. I just want to put up two caveats: 1) On the flip side, there may be 2-3 plays a game that the other team ISN"T making on Josh that would sink him from B- level to C- or D level (potential INTs that were dropped, fumbles where he was ruled down or we recovered 2) I once made your argument about Fitz - that he was a handful of catches per game away from being The Man for us. A few catches his WRs dropped or didn't haul in; a few misfires that needed to be more accurate. He never got there and I was proven wrong. The point being, it's genuinely hard for a QB in the NFL to up his game those few catches. I think we need to give Allen more playmakers and level-up the OL, but there's going to be a big part of this that's on him, between his ears and in how much attention to detail he's willing to put on his own technique and how hard he's willing to buckle down and drill. 3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: Bad throws don’t factor into drops? I’d like to hear how you came up with that assertion. If a ball is thrown behind or low or high to a target, and he gets hands on it but doesn’t reel it in, you’re sure it doesn’t count as a drop? Yes. 2 1
thebandit27 Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: Our QB didn’t scare opponents much either. I get it. We need more offensive weapons. I don’t disagree. But even good offensive weapons and a good OC and a good OL don’t hide a deficient QB forever. Your QB has to get better too. Allen, John Brown and Beasley had career years, that says something about the OC as well. Having great weapons would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great OC would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great QB would be great and would make this offense look better. But out of those three, the one with the biggest impact is QB. If you could choose between prime Andy Reid, prime Deandre Hopkins and prime Peyton Manning, you’d take Manning. Everyone would. Josh is our guy now and he’s our guy going forward but for sustained success we need a great QB. Andy Reid has had bad offenses. Deandre Hopkins has had bad offenses. Peyton Manning never did. I hope Josh gets on that level one day. 21st sounds right, and while a big step, he still needs to improve. As for the scare factor, I think I know what you’re trying to say, but I disagree with the premise. I think you’re implying that opposing coaches don’t think Allen can beat them, and therefore don’t necessarily worry about game planning to stop him in specific ways. When I look at it, I see opposing coaches having to implement very specific game plans to stop Josh. And this is the problem: who else on this roster do you need to game plan in order to stop? We all know the answer to that: nobody. That’s the #1 reason that Mahomes is so dangerous; while you’re figuring out how to limit him, you also have to control Hill, Williams, Kelce, Watkins, Hardman, etc. That’s an offense that keeps people awake. If I’m an opposing DC thinking about the Bills, I’m saying “well, I can run man coverage all day and not worry about getting beat for chunk plays more than a handful of times. If I can keep this QB from burning me with his arm and legs I can basically guarantee no more than 17 points allowed.” And that’s pretty much what we saw. 4
papazoid Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 2019 @ 58.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....32nd best.....NOT GOOD !! 2018 @ 52.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....33rd best only in blind fandom do people sell this as a great improvement it's a pass happy league where everyone's stats are on the rise.
thebandit27 Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, papazoid said: 2019 @ 58.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....32nd best.....NOT GOOD !! 2018 @ 52.8% completion percentage ranked Josh....33rd best only in blind fandom do people sell this as a great improvement it's a pass happy league where everyone's stats are on the rise. Ah yes, the “pass happy” NFL. In which a team whose QB attempted 29 total passes in 2 games toppled the AFC’s 1 and 3 seeds. A league in which the NFC champions attempted a total of 8 passes on a 65 degree day. A league in which the best team in the regular season broke the all-time rushing yardage record. I don’t care if you want to make a point about completion percentage (though I suspect if “he’s 31st!!2!1!!!1!2!” is what you’ve got, then you probably don’t look all too closely at things), but don’t say blatantly false things. Edited January 20, 2020 by thebandit27 6
Big Gun Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: 21st sounds right, and while a big step, he still needs to improve. As for the scare factor, I think I know what you’re trying to say, but I disagree with the premise. I think you’re implying that opposing coaches don’t think Allen can beat them, and therefore don’t necessarily worry about game planning to stop him in specific ways. When I look at it, I see opposing coaches having to implement very specific game plans to stop Josh. And this is the problem: who else on this roster do you need to game plan in order to stop? We all know the answer to that: nobody. That’s the #1 reason that Mahomes is so dangerous; while you’re figuring out how to limit him, you also have to control Hill, Williams, Kelce, Watkins, Hardman, etc. That’s an offense that keeps people awake. If I’m an opposing DC thinking about the Bills, I’m saying “well, I can run man coverage all day and not worry about getting beat for chunk plays more than a handful of times. If I can keep this QB from burning me with his arm and legs I can basically guarantee no more than 17 points allowed.” And that’s pretty much what we saw. This^^^^^
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 9 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: If you’re going to say that Josh scares defenses, then so do his weapons. John Brown was the 21st reciever in the NFL. He has deep speed and can burn over the top. Singletary was fifth in the NFL in YPA, and 24th in rushing yards, in 8 starts. He had nearly as many yards as Alvin Kamari and Leveon Bell rushing. We have none? Oh come on. If we had none then what did we have in 2018? Negative weapons? Let’s play in reality. Josh HAS weapons. John Brown is a top 20ish WR in the NFL. He isn’t throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones anymore. That stuff doesn’t hold water. You're fooling yourself if you think he has weapons that the other good QBs have. Brown would be considered the best skill player we have on offense and in his 6 year career he's finished 65th, 26th, 96th, 146th, 49th & 21st in yards receiving. He's averaged 67th in the league for receiving yards in his career and less than 5 TDs a year. No way he's considered a top 20ish WR in the NFL, one year doesn't discount the other 5 years. Once again, seems Josh did well with of what he had to work with. 2
Rc2catch Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 I didn’t read 90+ pages of this, but his completion % means squat. Josh could easily bump that up 5% or higher by simply using his check downs. He almost never does. His love of the big play, and arm talent keeps him focused beyond 20 yards. This is why he’s a league leader in time spent holding the ball, why he takes more sacks and pressures. Sometimes you just have to settle. Same philosophy we were always mad at McCoy. Don’t dance and lose 2 just go forward and get the 2 yards and move to the next play. I can’t even tell you how many times I rewinded to see singletary and yes Gore wide open in the flat on a check down without a defender in sight. Maybe some of those are 3-4 yards and maybe some break for 20+ but it’s better than a 12 yard laser bouncing off someone’s hands or two feet above their head. I really believe this is the entire key for Allen to make the next step. I agree with a lot of people on here we need some of our guys to step up and make some of these plays. We see tons of other teams and nobody name guys making really hard catches look routine. Sometimes we can’t even catch the wide open pass let alone a pass with any kind of traffic around. All of these things play major roles. Keeping momentum on offense, Allen keeping a rhythm as a passer, and keeping the defense fresh on the sidelines. Allen can boost his % and also keep the offense in a flow by making these short check downs sometimes. I love the big play, love the mentality he has that he can make any throw and get chunk yards, but the entire offense is better off taking the easy yards sometimes. I hope it’s a big point of emphasis for them this season. Much easier to have great footwork on short fast routes when you do the same thing and the drop back is almost always the same than when you’re moving constantly and have to position your feet from lots of different angles. 1 1
CEN-CAL17 Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 I’m expecting closer to 65% next year.... Gotta strengthen the OL, get another solid RB2 (Jordan Howard FA). Establish our identity as a running team. Sets up PA for Josh and keeps teams from blitzing as much. Brown, Beasley, Knox, Kroft all in their 2nd year in the system. Hopefully draft a WR that can produce in rounds 2 & 3 like Deebo Samuel, Terry McClaurin, AJ Brown, Metcalf etc.... WR class is deep this year. But the identity should be run the ball!!! 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 3 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Ah yes, the “pass happy” NFL. In which a team whose QB attempted 29 total passes in 2 games toppled the AFC’s 1 and 3 seeds. A league in which the NFC champions attempted a total of 8 passes on a 65 degree day. A league in which the best team in the regular season broke the all-time rushing yardage record. I don’t care if you want to make a point about completion percentage (though I suspect if “he’s 31st!!2!1!!!1!2!” is what you’ve got, then you probably don’t look all too closely at things), but don’t say blatantly false things. 48 minutes ago, pop gun said: This^^^^^ All of that was said 50 pages ago and two dozen times over.
Big Gun Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: All of that was said 50 pages ago and two dozen times over. So
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: All of that was said 50 pages ago and two dozen times over. Well not all of it. Otherwise Bandit is from the future already knowing that Jimmy G. would only throw 8 times.?
YattaOkasan Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: Well not all of it. Otherwise Bandit is from the future already knowing that Jimmy G. would only throw 8 times.? Time bandit! 3
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is probably true. I just want to put up two caveats: 1) On the flip side, there may be 2-3 plays a game that the other team ISN"T making on Josh that would sink him from B- level to C- or D level (potential INTs that were dropped, fumbles where he was ruled down or we recovered 2) I once made your argument about Fitz - that he was a handful of catches per game away from being The Man for us. A few catches his WRs dropped or didn't haul in; a few misfires that needed to be more accurate. He never got there and I was proven wrong. The point being, it's genuinely hard for a QB in the NFL to up his game those few catches. I think we need to give Allen more playmakers and level-up the OL, but there's going to be a big part of this that's on him, between his ears and in how much attention to detail he's willing to put on his own technique and how hard he's willing to buckle down and drill. Yes. I’d like to see proof of that please. 5 hours ago, thebandit27 said: 21st sounds right, and while a big step, he still needs to improve. As for the scare factor, I think I know what you’re trying to say, but I disagree with the premise. I think you’re implying that opposing coaches don’t think Allen can beat them, and therefore don’t necessarily worry about game planning to stop him in specific ways. When I look at it, I see opposing coaches having to implement very specific game plans to stop Josh. And this is the problem: who else on this roster do you need to game plan in order to stop? We all know the answer to that: nobody. That’s the #1 reason that Mahomes is so dangerous; while you’re figuring out how to limit him, you also have to control Hill, Williams, Kelce, Watkins, Hardman, etc. That’s an offense that keeps people awake. If I’m an opposing DC thinking about the Bills, I’m saying “well, I can run man coverage all day and not worry about getting beat for chunk plays more than a handful of times. If I can keep this QB from burning me with his arm and legs I can basically guarantee no more than 17 points allowed.” And that’s pretty much what we saw. Oh really? So teams don’t gameplan against John Brown? He was the leading AFC reciever for 3/4ths of the year and they just don’t bring him up in the film room? They just talk about Josh, and when the DB coach is like “what about his receivers?” they laugh and all go get ice cream instead? Teams gameplan against everybody. Yes, teams worry more about Deandre Hopkins than they do against John Brown. I’d like another weapon or two on offense myself. But John Brown is a player teams account for.
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: You're fooling yourself if you think he has weapons that the other good QBs have. Brown would be considered the best skill player we have on offense and in his 6 year career he's finished 65th, 26th, 96th, 146th, 49th & 21st in yards receiving. He's averaged 67th in the league for receiving yards in his career and less than 5 TDs a year. No way he's considered a top 20ish WR in the NFL, one year doesn't discount the other 5 years. Once again, seems Josh did well with of what he had to work with. Yeah man, John Brown was never the #1 option on those teams. Last year he was a top 20ish reciever in the NFL when he was given his shot. Thems the breaks. If Josh “has no weapons,” we should just cut him and Beasley and start over I guess.
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