JaCrispy Posted January 19, 2020 Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said: High school results mean zero, zip, nada when it comes to the NFL. I can't believe anyone would post them in order to make a point. Your right, it means nothing when compared to the NFL...however, it DOES mean that on every level Josh has played he has NEVER been an efficient passer...
transplantbillsfan Posted January 19, 2020 Author Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said: High School 2011 2012- 59% 2012-2013 - 50% 2013-2014 - 57% Junior College 2015 - 49% College 2016 - 56% 2017 - 56.3% NFL 2018 - 52.8% 2019 - 58.8% The next time Josh is over 60% will be the first time. okay to be fair he DID throw 6 passes in his first season with Wyoming and completed 4 of them for a 66.7%. ???? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm 31 drops 3rd most in the NFL 7.2% drop percentage Highest in the NFL by 1%... which is significant If the Bills were just middle of the pack in the NFL in drop %, Allen's completion percentage is 60.3%. Last season there are no individual QB stats I can find, just team stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/advanced.htm As a team last year the Bills were middle of the pack in drop percentage with 24 drops. STATS!!! Allen's accuracy and decision making improved pretty drastically in just one season. Let's hope his offensive weapons become a little more reliable catching the ball, Knox and Beasley in particular. 1 hour ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said: there’s no point. no agenda. just stats. I’ll leave it up to everyone to interpret what they mean or don’t. i didn’t create these stats, I didn’t make up these stats. i simply posted these stats. That is all. 1 hour ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said: No argument. Only stats. Edited January 19, 2020 by transplantbillsfan 1
Chicken Boo Posted January 19, 2020 Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said: Great improvement in % completion indicating that next year we should expect Allen to complete somewhere between 60 - 65% of his passes. And if he's still in the 50s, then what? He isn't as accurate as he needs to be. That's a fact!
CincyBillsFan Posted January 19, 2020 Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: And if he's still in the 50s, then what? He isn't as accurate as he needs to be. That's a fact! So we have Bills fans obsessing over the PAST because we didn't draft Mahomes three years ago and we also have Bills fans obsessing over Allen's FUTURE accuracy. Funny what Bills fans worry about isn't it? Here's the bottom line: * We can't do anything to change the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes. NOTHING. So at what point do folks move on? * It seems stupid to worry about Allen's accuracy NEXT SEASON. I mean it still hasn't happened yet right? * Allen improved his completion percentage from 53% to 59%. It was OBVIOUS to anyone who watched the last 2 seasons that Allen's accuracy improved considerably. * Given the CAP room and the fact that under Bean/McD the Bills have drafted well it's reasonable to assume that they will further upgrade their offensive skill positions. Add in another year for Allen to develop and for an offense with NINE NEW players to better gel it's likely that Allen's accuracy will further improve. Edited January 19, 2020 by CincyBillsFan
Stank_Nasty Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: So we have Bills fans obsessing over the PAST because we didn't draft Mahomes three years ago and we also have Bills fans obsessing over Allen's FUTURE accuracy. Funny what Bills fans worry about isn't it? Here's the bottom line: * We can't do anything to change the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes. NOTHING. So at what point do folks move on? * It seems stupid to worry about Allen's accuracy NEXT SEASON. I mean it still hasn't happened yet right? * Allen improved his completion percentage from 53% to 59%. It was OBVIOUS to anyone who watched the last 2 seasons that Allen's accuracy improved considerably. * Given the CAP room and the fact that under Bean/McD the Bills have drafted well it's reasonable to assume that they will further upgrade their offensive skill positions. Add in another year for Allen to develop and for an offense with NINE NEW players to better gel it's likely that Allen's accuracy will further improve. Knock it off. Way too much commonsense here. 1
White Linen Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 4 hours ago, JaCrispy said: This is sad...fingers crossed that Daboll can create an offense that will help Josh become a more efficient passer...there is no reason that, in today’s game, that any QB should be under 60% completions imo... ... when the team can't figure out the simple screen pass to easily get him over 60%. Finished the thought for you. 1
BigBillsFan Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 The point we all have to realize is the value of Allen to the Bills. Everything else is irrelevant. Is this team better with Allen than Gardner Minshew? In other words if that argument could be made, and I believe it can, than we have to ask if it's worth investing $30-40 mil a year when his contract is ready. How many players are we willing to lose for his replacement value? That's how he has to be seen. I'm hoping he can do it and we get off the carousel. I'm hoping he's worth it but bear in mind other than the Patriots* most teams that go QB heavy in investment struggle for a while until they have a team that can survive the big salary. Look at Russell Wilson who after he got his 1st big salary the Seahawks struggled defensively. 1 1
JaCrispy Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said: The point we all have to realize is the value of Allen to the Bills. Everything else is irrelevant. Is this team better with Allen than Gardner Minshew? In other words if that argument could be made, and I believe it can, than we have to ask if it's worth investing $30-40 mil a year when his contract is ready. How many players are we willing to lose for his replacement value? That's how he has to be seen. I'm hoping he can do it and we get off the carousel. I'm hoping he's worth it but bear in mind other than the Patriots* most teams that go QB heavy in investment struggle for a while until they have a team that can survive the big salary. Look at Russell Wilson who after he got his 1st big salary the Seahawks struggled defensively. At this point I would have to agree and say he is not worth it...fortunately, for his sake, we don’t have to make that decision yet... 1
Mike in Horseheads Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, JaCrispy said: At this point I would have to agree and say he is not worth it...fortunately, for his sake, we don’t have to make that decision yet... Go with God Crispy! 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 20, 2020 Author Posted January 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said: And if he's still in the 50s, then what? He isn't as accurate as he needs to be. That's a fact! Depends on if our receivers are still hanging him out to dry with the worst drop percentage in the NFL by a lot. Isn't as accurate as he needs to be for what? This team just had it's best season in 2 1/2 decades. Allen should work hard in the offseason on his mechanics and passing in general, but the Bills lost 5 of their 6 games by 1 score or less. 7 more catches on the season takes the Bills from worst in the NFL to middle of the pack in the NFL in drop percentage. Conservatively, I think that gives us one or two more wins, which potentially even leads to a 1st round bye... and then who knows???? The fact is that there were at least 31 passes, according to PFR, that were drops. 31 more catches and Allen's completion percentage is 65.5%. I can tell you from cross referencing that these are passes that SHOULD have been caught, not simply all passes that COULD have been caught. Imagine if we could start catching those, too? Now obviously all QBs get dropped passes... but I challenge you to find teams that have had drop percentages above 7% like Buffalo in 2019. Now, if our receivers are still dropping a ton of balls next season and Allen is in the upper 50% range like he was this past year, this argument goes forth. Allen improved his completion percentage significantly from rookie year to his 2nd year. Next thing is YPA. If Allen has the same completion percentage he has now next year but his YPA is 8 or above, that will be another pretty significant improvement. Josh Allen was such a truly raw prospect coming out of College and he's really exceeded the expectations of anyone reasonable already in his first 2 years as a pro. I suspect you see him take another step forward next season. 2 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 20, 2020 Author Posted January 20, 2020 4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said: The point we all have to realize is the value of Allen to the Bills. Everything else is irrelevant. Is this team better with Allen than Gardner Minshew? In other words if that argument could be made, and I believe it can, than we have to ask if it's worth investing $30-40 mil a year when his contract is ready. How many players are we willing to lose for his replacement value? That's how he has to be seen. I'm hoping he can do it and we get off the carousel. I'm hoping he's worth it but bear in mind other than the Patriots* most teams that go QB heavy in investment struggle for a while until they have a team that can survive the big salary. Look at Russell Wilson who after he got his 1st big salary the Seahawks struggled defensively. Bro... Bills have Allen locked up for at least 2 more seasons... 3 more if they pick up his 5th year option. waaaaaAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaayyyyy to early to have that discussion
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Depends on if our receivers are still hanging him out to dry with the worst drop percentage in the NFL by a lot. Isn't as accurate as he needs to be for what? This team just had it's best season in 2 1/2 decades. Allen should work hard in the offseason on his mechanics and passing in general, but the Bills lost 5 of their 6 games by 1 score or less. 7 more catches on the season takes the Bills from worst in the NFL to middle of the pack in the NFL in drop percentage. Conservatively, I think that gives us one or two more wins, which potentially even leads to a 1st round bye... and then who knows???? The fact is that there were at least 31 passes, according to PFR, that were drops. 31 more catches and Allen's completion percentage is 65.5%. I can tell you from cross referencing that these are passes that SHOULD have been caught, not simply all passes that COULD have been caught. Imagine if we could start catching those, too? Now obviously all QBs get dropped passes... but I challenge you to find teams that have had drop percentages above 7% like Buffalo in 2019. Now, if our receivers are still dropping a ton of balls next season and Allen is in the upper 50% range like he was this past year, this argument goes forth. Allen improved his completion percentage significantly from rookie year to his 2nd year. Next thing is YPA. If Allen has the same completion percentage he has now next year but his YPA is 8 or above, that will be another pretty significant improvement. Josh Allen was such a truly raw prospect coming out of College and he's really exceeded the expectations of anyone reasonable already in his first 2 years as a pro. I suspect you see him take another step forward next season. So many leaps here. 7 more catches over the course of 6 losses equals “conservatively” 1 or 2 more wins? 65.5% sounds pretty until you pair it with the context of the rest of the NFL. Josh had 3 more drops than Jimmy G and Jimmy G is in the Super Bowl. But Josh had 24 more bad throws than Jimmy G. Maybe that’s contributing to the drop rate a tiny bit? Josh Allen is 21st in the NFL for on target throw percentage. Calling him the 21st most accurate QB sounds about right. If he gets up to 16 or higher next year, that would be great. And we can talk OL, but Josh was the 5th most blitzed QB in the NFL, but the 21st most hurried QB in the NFL last year. In summary, drops suck. I want less of them. But pointing at them like this great big offensive flaw just does not hold up to scrutiny.
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: So many leaps here. 7 more catches over the course of 6 losses equals “conservatively” 1 or 2 more wins? 65.5% sounds pretty until you pair it with the context of the rest of the NFL. Josh had 3 more drops than Jimmy G and Jimmy G is in the Super Bowl. But Josh had 24 more bad throws than Jimmy G. Maybe that’s contributing to the drop rate a tiny bit? Josh Allen is 21st in the NFL for on target throw percentage. Calling him the 21st most accurate QB sounds about right. If he gets up to 16 or higher next year, that would be great. And we can talk OL, but Josh was the 5th most blitzed QB in the NFL, but the 21st most hurried QB in the NFL last year. In summary, drops suck. I want less of them. But pointing at them like this great big offensive flaw just does not hold up to scrutiny. It is part of the overall problem, along with lack of talent at the skill positions around Josh. You see WRs week in and week out bail their QBs out when they have an off the mark throw with great catches, there's no one on this team doing that. Our backfield & TEs didn't scare any opponents this year either. After Brown, Beasley & Singletary, who are all either #2s or #3s, there's was nothing to speak of. Brown was able to squeeze out his best year in his career and Beasley missed his by 55 yards, even with both sitting out week 17. That's got to tell you something about the QB. But in the end Brown, Beasley & Singletary alone, aren't enough for a good sustained offense week in and week out. An OC who was all over the place, some games were called well others seems to have no flow, no rhyme or reason(The Texans game). QB, young and in his first playoff game ever(On the road no less), up 16-0 and for the final 34:08 the OC only calls for 2 handoffs? That's unheard of, you don't ask a young QB in that situation to do almost everything. The o-line graded out average at best and had a ton of crucial penalties(Look no further than the Texans game & many others) putting the offense in 1st or 2nd & long. Also seem to have far too many whiffs on defenders and missed blocking assignments. It's also true Josh needs to continue to show improvement as next year plays out. He's a work in progress, there's no doubt, but this team needs to do a much better job, all the way around, to give him the best chance to improve as possible. During the last 2 drives of the Texans game I saw a young QB complete passes & convert 3rd & 9+ plays 4 times. Missing twice, one being an overthrow to Duke in the endzone to waste a few seconds before kicking a game tying FG and a drop on 3rd & 25 after Ford's penalty in OT. That's stepping up to the occasion, not "cowering away or shrinking". He still has flaws, it's the OC's job to minimize those and exposure to them. 3
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: It is part of the overall problem, along with lack of talent at the skill positions around Josh. You see WRs week in and week out bail their QBs out when they have an off the mark throw with great catches, there's no one on this team doing that. Our backfield & TEs didn't scare any opponents this year either. After Brown, Beasley & Singletary, who are all either #2s or #3s, there's was nothing to speak of. Brown was able to squeeze out his best year in his career and Beasley missed his by 55 yards, even with both sitting out week 17. That's got to tell you something about the QB. But in the end Brown, Beasley & Singletary alone, aren't enough for a good sustained offense week in and week out. An OC who was all over the place, some games were called well others seems to have no flow, no rhyme or reason(The Texans game). QB, young and in his first playoff game ever(On the road no less), up 16-0 and for the final 34:08 the OC only calls for 2 handoffs? That's unheard of, you don't ask a young QB in that situation to do almost everything. The o-line graded out average at best and had a ton of crucial penalties(Look no further than the Texans game & many others) putting the offense in 1st or 2nd & long. Also seem to have far too many whiffs on defenders and missed blocking assignments. It's also true Josh needs to continue to show improvement as next year plays out. He's a work in progress, there's no doubt, but this team needs to do a much better job, all the way around, to give him the best chance to improve as possible. During the last 2 drives of the Texans game I saw a young QB complete passes & convert 3rd & 9+ plays 4 times. Missing twice, one being an overthrow to Duke in the endzone to waste a few seconds before kicking a game tying FG and a drop on 3rd & 25 after Ford's penalty in OT. That's stepping up to the occasion, not "cowering away or shrinking". He still has flaws, it's the OC's job to minimize those and exposure to them. Our QB didn’t scare opponents much either. I get it. We need more offensive weapons. I don’t disagree. But even good offensive weapons and a good OC and a good OL don’t hide a deficient QB forever. Your QB has to get better too. Allen, John Brown and Beasley had career years, that says something about the OC as well. Having great weapons would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great OC would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great QB would be great and would make this offense look better. But out of those three, the one with the biggest impact is QB. If you could choose between prime Andy Reid, prime Deandre Hopkins and prime Peyton Manning, you’d take Manning. Everyone would. Josh is our guy now and he’s our guy going forward but for sustained success we need a great QB. Andy Reid has had bad offenses. Deandre Hopkins has had bad offenses. Peyton Manning never did. I hope Josh gets on that level one day. 1
John from Riverside Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Our QB didn’t scare opponents much either. I get it. We need more offensive weapons. I don’t disagree. But even good offensive weapons and a good OC and a good OL don’t hide a deficient QB forever. Your QB has to get better too. Allen, John Brown and Beasley had career years, that says something about the OC as well. Having great weapons would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great OC would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great QB would be great and would make this offense look better. But out of those three, the one with the biggest impact is QB. If you could choose between prime Andy Reid, prime Deandre Hopkins and prime Peyton Manning, you’d take Manning. Everyone would. Josh is our guy now and he’s our guy going forward but for sustained success we need a great QB. Andy Reid has had bad offenses. Deandre Hopkins has had bad offenses. Peyton Manning never did. I hope Josh gets on that level one day. Your points dont hold water...they really dont Year one.....total rebiuld.....WR's not making plays right and left.....Josh Allen rookie season but you can tell is a gamer Year two...in comes Smoke and Bease.....both have one of the best years of their careers.....they were not doing THAT great before him....who was throwing them those passes Josh Allen is one of the players on our offense that actually DOES scare opposing defenses.....he extends plays....he is a duel threat....his game goes up when its crunchtime Stop bitching about our QB and acting like he is a weakness on our offense.....he isnt 6
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 46 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Our QB didn’t scare opponents much either. I get it. We need more offensive weapons. I don’t disagree. But even good offensive weapons and a good OC and a good OL don’t hide a deficient QB forever. Your QB has to get better too. Allen, John Brown and Beasley had career years, that says something about the OC as well. Having great weapons would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great OC would be great and would make this offense look better. Having a great QB would be great and would make this offense look better. But out of those three, the one with the biggest impact is QB. If you could choose between prime Andy Reid, prime Deandre Hopkins and prime Peyton Manning, you’d take Manning. Everyone would. Josh is our guy now and he’s our guy going forward but for sustained success we need a great QB. Andy Reid has had bad offenses. Deandre Hopkins has had bad offenses. Peyton Manning never did. I hope Josh gets on that level one day. Out of all our offensive players, Josh easily sparks the most fear into our opponents. A young QB, needs weapons, heck it's been shown through the years Tom Brady needs weapons, Peyton Manning needed weapons, Mahomes needs weapons. Every QB needs them, we have none. 3
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 43 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Your points dont hold water...they really dont Year one.....total rebiuld.....WR's not making plays right and left.....Josh Allen rookie season but you can tell is a gamer Year two...in comes Smoke and Bease.....both have one of the best years of their careers.....they were not doing THAT great before him....who was throwing them those passes Josh Allen is one of the players on our offense that actually DOES scare opposing defenses.....he extends plays....he is a duel threat....his game goes up when its crunchtime Stop bitching about our QB and acting like he is a weakness on our offense.....he isnt If you’re going to say that Josh scares defenses, then so do his weapons. John Brown was the 21st reciever in the NFL. He has deep speed and can burn over the top. Singletary was fifth in the NFL in YPA, and 24th in rushing yards, in 8 starts. He had nearly as many yards as Alvin Kamari and Leveon Bell rushing. 29 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said: Out of all our offensive players, Josh easily sparks the most fear into our opponents. A young QB, needs weapons, heck it's been shown through the years Tom Brady needs weapons, Peyton Manning needed weapons, Mahomes needs weapons. Every QB needs them, we have none. We have none? Oh come on. If we had none then what did we have in 2018? Negative weapons? Let’s play in reality. Josh HAS weapons. John Brown is a top 20ish WR in the NFL. He isn’t throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones anymore. That stuff doesn’t hold water. 1
John from Riverside Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: If you’re going to say that Josh scares defenses, then so do his weapons. John Brown was the 21st reciever in the NFL. He has deep speed and can burn over the top. Singletary was fifth in the NFL in YPA, and 24th in rushing yards, in 8 starts. He had nearly as many yards as Alvin Kamari and Leveon Bell rushing. We have none? Oh come on. If we had none then what did we have in 2018? Negative weapons? Let’s play in reality. Josh HAS weapons. John Brown is a top 20ish WR in the NFL. He isn’t throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones anymore. That stuff doesn’t hold water. I like Smoke and Bease....the fact is there are not ENOUGH playmakers on the offense
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: I like Smoke and Bease....the fact is there are not ENOUGH playmakers on the offense I agree completely. We need better playmakers or better play at QB, WR and RB.
John from Riverside Posted January 20, 2020 Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: I agree completely. We need better playmakers or better play at QB, WR and RB. The better qb play will happen as better players start doing something with the balls being thrown to them we literally do not win 50 50 balls because of lack of players that can fight for them 1
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