Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: 6 tracked dropped passes right now for Knox. Remember that dropped passes as a stat are the blatant, obvious ones. They don't include all passes that were catchable in some way. I said in that post Allen needs a big, reliable receiver. I assume you brought up Knox as a counter to that--I guess you're somehow trying to argue that Knox is that guy? If Knox were that guy and Knox alone didn't drop any passes (but everyone else on the Bills still did), Allen's completion percentage right now would be 60.1%. And then just imagine if Bills WRs could actually come down with some of those acrobatic catchable passes you see consistently across the NFL... You're right that Allen could improve his accuracy. Absolutely. But the approach of leaving him without some big bodied reliable WRs in favor of all smurfs is a disservice to a young, raw QB. From your mouth to Beane's ears, @transplantbillsfan. I'm unpersuaded that Duke is "that guy" as of yet. If he works hard on his route running and his release, sets the Juggs on high in the offseason and conditions for speed and cutting ability, it's possible. 1
BringBackOrton Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Well, for one, I watched the games. For another, the QB attempted 420 passes in 14 games despite playing from behind an appreciable amount of time. Allen had roughly the same number of attempts per game despite that the Bills were rarely trailing. And when they were, he usually lead them back to the lead. But if you feel that strongly that Taylor would've easily replicated Allen's production, despite there being zero supporting evidence, then I'll leave you to that. That’s odd. Are you implying that Taylor passed as much as Josh because the 2017 Bills trailed in more games? Let’s go through that math together. Jets, Bengals, Pats, Dolphins, Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Pats were all games we trailed at some point this year. If we count games where the score was tied, that list grows even larger. Is 10 games where we trailed at some point really “rarely” trailing? It looks like an appreciable amount of games to me. Maybe you didnt watch those games though.
thebandit27 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: That’s odd. Are you implying that Taylor passed as much as Josh because the 2017 Bills trailed in more games? Let’s go through that math together. Jets, Bengals, Pats, Dolphins, Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Pats were all games we trailed at some point this year. If we count games where the score was tied, that list grows even larger. Is 10 games where we trailed at some point really “rarely” trailing? It looks like an appreciable amount of games to me. Maybe you didnt watch those games though. Oh I watched, which is how I was able to estimate the result of the search that I just did before I actually did it. The 2019 Bills ranked 8th in the NFL in average scoring lead per drive at 0.72 points ahead per drive (according to Football Outsiders). The 2017 Bills ranked 19th in the NFL in that stat; they were BEHIND by an average of 2.72 points per drive. So yeah, I'm sure of what I said. 2019 Bills: Rarely trailed. 2017 Bills: seldomly ahead. 2 2
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Oh I watched, which is how I was able to estimate the result of the search that I just did before I actually did it. The 2019 Bills ranked 8th in the NFL in average scoring lead per drive at 0.72 points ahead per drive (according to Football Outsiders). The 2017 Bills ranked 19th in the NFL in that stat; they were BEHIND by an average of 2.72 points per drive. So yeah, I'm sure of what I said. 2019 Bills: Rarely trailed. 2017 Bills: seldomly ahead. 1
BringBackOrton Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Well I am not quite there yet. I hope so. But he still has to keep improving for that to happen. All I am saying is he is pretty much on track at this stage but I am not ready to go to "he is definitely the guy for 10 plus years". Josh is ahead of schedule IMO. I said last year if he had a Trubisky type jump or put up a year like Baker’s rookie season, we’d be in great shape. 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: You don't often see such a devastating takedown, but here we are. Btw, where do people even come up with these stats? That seems so specific.
Jrb1979 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, pop gun said: I would like to know what your definition of "franchise quarterback" is, because Josh Allen is going to be the Bills QB for at least the next 10-12 years. He may be the starting QB for that long but IMO that doesn't equal franchise QB. IMO examples of franchise QB's are Brady, Brees, Rogers and Mahomes is starting to belong in that category. Guys that are top 10 in passing, TDs and completion %. I see Allen more in the tier below. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted December 30, 2019 Author Posted December 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: From your mouth to Beane's ears, @transplantbillsfan. I'm unpersuaded that Duke is "that guy" as of yet. If he works hard on his route running and his release, sets the Juggs on high in the offseason and conditions for speed and cutting ability, it's possible. The thing is... I really don't think and never did think that Duke is that guy for the team long term, though it's possible. But he could have served as a stopgap for at least this year. Other than the Eagles loss, every single one of our losses was a one score game where a play of two might have changed the outcome of an L to a W. Duke ran 2 deep routes yesterday and he had more of an impact on those 2 deep routes for the team than Foster did all season. Notice that he came close to catching that first one from Allen? It just boggles my mind at this point that Daboll can't find some use in the offense for the guy at this point. I watched him on multiple running plays just mauling defenders, too. Draft a guy in the offseason and let Duke fight for a roster spot next year, but the Robert Foster decoy strategy is simply not working and not helping Allen out at all considering he seems to feel an urge to throw it to him on those deep routes even when he isn't open.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: He may be the starting QB for that long but IMO that doesn't equal franchise QB. IMO examples of franchise QB's are Brady, Brees, Rogers and Mahomes is starting to belong in that category. Guys that are top 10 in passing, TDs and completion %. I see Allen more in the tier below. So "franchise QB" = first ballot HOFer to you? 2
Jrb1979 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So "franchise QB" = first ballot HOFer to you? Close. IMO franchise QBs are the top 5 QBs in the league. I don't consider a QB that starts multiple seasons a franchise QB. Tannehill has been been a starter for multiple seasons and no one considers him a franchise QB.
TuelTime Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: He may be the starting QB for that long but IMO that doesn't equal franchise QB. IMO examples of franchise QB's are Brady, Brees, Rogers and Mahomes is starting to belong in that category. Guys that are top 10 in passing, TDs and completion %. I see Allen more in the tier below. 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So "franchise QB" = first ballot HOFer to you? I don't think you need to be a first ballot HOFer to be 10 top in passing.. Guys like Newton, Dalton, Ryan, Rivers, Goff, Wilson, Garoppolo, and even Carr and Cousins are all capable of leading the league in either of those metrics, and could be considered "franchise" QBs. Throw in guys like Wentz, Prescott, and Watson, and you'll realize about 15 teams are poised to sink or swim depending on how well their QB plays. The other teams are building strong defenses and run games in order to accumulate wins while trying to find their guy. If Josh can win a playoff game or two (or Super Bowl), and improve next year, I'd be ready to anoint him as the "franchise" QB. The reality is he went from below average QB with potential to average QB with potential. Lets hope that he doesn't regress next year and leaves the Bills in QB limbo for another decade (or two).
thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said: Close. IMO franchise QBs are the top 5 QBs in the league. I don't consider a QB that starts multiple seasons a franchise QB. Tannehill has been been a starter for multiple seasons and no one considers him a franchise QB. I've always interpreted the term "franchise QB" to mean "a guy you can win a Super Bowl with even if everything else isn't excellent around him". The top group are what I term "elite". Right now, for me, that's a very small group that consists of Mahomes, Wilson, Lamar, Brees, and probably Rodgers (though he's in decline). Then there's the rest of the franchise guys, which include (again IMO): Watson Garoppolo Goff Stafford Cousins Ryan Dak Wentz Then you've got your promising-but-not-yet-there types: Allen Darnold Murray Jones Everyone else, IMO, is probably looking over their shoulder at this point. 1 1
transplantbillsfan Posted December 31, 2019 Author Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: Close. IMO franchise QBs are the top 5 QBs in the league. I don't consider a QB that starts multiple seasons a franchise QB. Tannehill has been been a starter for multiple seasons and no one considers him a franchise QB. What about Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers and Derek Carr?
Jrb1979 Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: What about Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers and Derek Carr? I consider them a tier below the top QBs. That's where I think Allen will most likely end up. They are good but most likely not going to carry their offense like Brees, Rogers and Mahomes do.
Scott7975 Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: From your mouth to Beane's ears, @transplantbillsfan. I'm unpersuaded that Duke is "that guy" as of yet. If he works hard on his route running and his release, sets the Juggs on high in the offseason and conditions for speed and cutting ability, it's possible. I've argued for Duke all season. It's not that I necessarily think he is that guy... its more so I think he is that guy this year. The closest thing we have to it. I go back to what if it was him going for that ball to Beasley end of Pats game. What if it were Duke going for that ball end of Ravens game. Do things work out different? I'm not sure but I think Duke would have a better chance. He is good in his hands. He is good and making contested catches. He is a bigger target. He is better and boxing out the defender. That's the guy this offense needed all season. 8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: That’s odd. Are you implying that Taylor passed as much as Josh because the 2017 Bills trailed in more games? Let’s go through that math together. Jets, Bengals, Pats, Dolphins, Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Pats were all games we trailed at some point this year. If we count games where the score was tied, that list grows even larger. Is 10 games where we trailed at some point really “rarely” trailing? It looks like an appreciable amount of games to me. Maybe you didnt watch those games though. I'll throw one in the ringer. Josh is way better at picking up third and longs. One of the best in the league in fact. Taylor was check down king on third and long. I'm a guy that loved Taylor his first couple years. I seen a mile away he wasn't fit for Dennison offense. I also felt it was finally time to move on. I don't think Taylor has us where we are right now.
transplantbillsfan Posted December 31, 2019 Author Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: I consider them a tier below the top QBs. That's where I think Allen will most likely end up. They are good but most likely not going to carry their offense like Brees, Rogers and Mahomes do. Okay then. So your standard for Franchise QB truly is HOF QB. What about Eli? You can't possibly think he was a Franchise QB and not think Ryan is. Flacco? Cam? None of those 3, I suspect, you would qualify as Franchise QBs by your definition, but they have 4 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Lombardis, and one NFL MVP between them. Ryan was also an NFL MVP and had a Super Bowl appearance. Matthew Stafford has played for a pretty dysfunctional organization his entire career, yet he has as many 4th Quarter comebacks in his 10 seasons in the NFL as Favre did in his entire career. I think your standard for Franchise QB is silly. Edited December 31, 2019 by transplantbillsfan 1
DuckyBoys Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Scott7975 said: I've argued for Duke all season. It's not that I necessarily think he is that guy... its more so I think he is that guy this year. The closest thing we have to it. I go back to what if it was him going for that ball to Beasley end of Pats game. What if it were Duke going for that ball end of Ravens game. Do things work out different? I'm not sure but I think Duke would have a better chance. He is good in his hands. He is good and making contested catches. He is a bigger target. He is better and boxing out the defender. That's the guy this offense needed all season. I'll throw one in the ringer. Josh is way better at picking up third and longs. One of the best in the league in fact. Taylor was check down king on third and long. I'm a guy that loved Taylor his first couple years. I seen a mile away he wasn't fit for Dennison offense. I also felt it was finally time to move on. I don't think Taylor has us where we are right now. 3rd and long was a automatic punt with Tyrod 1
BananaB Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, DuckyBoys said: 3rd and long was a automatic punt with Tyrod And in 4th quarter, down by a score it was a guaranteed loss. That’s why I’m happy with what Josh is doing. He’s played his best ball in the 4th and that’s where games are decided. Edited December 31, 2019 by BananaB 1
Jrb1979 Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Okay then. So your standard for Franchise QB truly is HOF QB. What about Eli? You can't possibly think he was a Franchise QB and not think Ryan is. Flacco? Cam? None of those 3, I suspect, you would qualify as Franchise QBs by your definition, but they have 4 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Lombardis, and one NFL MVP between them. Ryan was also an NFL MVP and had a Super Bowl appearance. Matthew Stafford has played for a pretty dysfunctional organization his entire career, yet he has as many 4th Quarter comebacks in his 10 seasons in the NFL as Favre did in his entire career. I think your standard for Franchise QB is silly. If you read what thebandit27 posted a few posts above yours that is what a franchise QB is. They are the guys that don't always need everything to go right for them to win. All those QBs you mentioned had everything go right for them to win. Yes they are elite QBs but not franchise ones.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 31, 2019 Posted December 31, 2019 18 hours ago, thebandit27 said: I've always interpreted the term "franchise QB" to mean "a guy you can win a Super Bowl with even if everything else isn't excellent around him". The top group are what I term "elite". Right now, for me, that's a very small group that consists of Mahomes, Wilson, Lamar, Brees, and probably Rodgers (though he's in decline). Then there's the rest of the franchise guys, which include (again IMO): Watson Garoppolo Goff Stafford Cousins Ryan Dak Wentz Then you've got your promising-but-not-yet-there types: Allen Darnold Murray Jones Everyone else, IMO, is probably looking over their shoulder at this point. I'd take Wentz, Goff and depending on the day Watson off that list.
Recommended Posts