Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[thebandit27]

18 hours ago, TuelTime said:

 

Tyrod took a worse team to the playoffs. In pretty much the same manner. Stout defense, strong run game, and conservative offensive play calling (less than 25 passes a game) with a QB who can pick up first downs with his legs. Don't get me wrong, I like Josh Allen, but so far I see an average QB. An average QB with potential, but I thought (and I wasn't alone) that Tyrod had potential as well.

 

My concern with Allen is that he is going to do just enough for the front office to keep him around like Tyrod and Fitz, while never taking the next step and becoming a true franchise QB. This team has the wins, but if we're being honest they are not because Allen has played "great". I want Allen to succeed, but I haven't seen anything that would stop me from drafting a mid-round QB this year.

 

 

The 2017 offense featured a 1,100 yard back that scored 6 rushing TDs. The team also got scores from the defense in key wins against Oakland and Atlanta. In a support role, Taylor produced 18 total TDs and 8 total TOs. He produced 3,200 yards of total offense. 

 

This year, no Bills RB eclipsed 800 yards. The entire team scored only 6 TDs that didn't involve Allen. Despite a relative lack of support offensively, he produced 3,600 yards of total offense with 29 TDs and 13 TOs. He also lead 4 4th quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives. In 2017, Taylor lead 1 and 2, respectively.

 

If we're looking at this team, with this staff and this support group operating this offense, then I would call it the height of insanity to claim that either Tyrod or Fitz would've done the same, let alone to say they'd have done it easily.

 

No offense.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The 2017 offense featured a 1,100 yard back that scored 6 rushing TDs. The team also got scores from the defense in key wins against Oakland and Atlanta. In a support role, Taylor produced 18 total TDs and 8 total TOs. He produced 3,200 yards of total offense. 

 

This year, no Bills RB eclipsed 800 yards. The entire team scored only 6 TDs that didn't involve Allen. Despite a relative lack of support offensively, he produced 3,600 yards of total offense with 29 TDs and 13 TOs. He also lead 4 4th quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives. In 2017, Taylor lead 1 and 2, respectively.

 

If we're looking at this team, with this staff and this support group operating this offense, then I would call it the height of insanity to claim that either Tyrod or Fitz would've done the same, let alone to say they'd have done it easily.

 

No offense.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The 2017 offense featured a 1,100 yard back that scored 6 rushing TDs. The team also got scores from the defense in key wins against Oakland and Atlanta. In a support role, Taylor produced 18 total TDs and 8 total TOs. He produced 3,200 yards of total offense. 

 

This year, no Bills RB eclipsed 800 yards. The entire team scored only 6 TDs that didn't involve Allen. Despite a relative lack of support offensively, he produced 3,600 yards of total offense with 29 TDs and 13 TOs. He also lead 4 4th quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives. In 2017, Taylor lead 1 and 2, respectively.

 

If we're looking at this team, with this staff and this support group operating this offense, then I would call it the height of insanity to claim that either Tyrod or Fitz would've done the same, let alone to say they'd have done it easily.

 

No offense.

 

I'm still not quite as sold on Allen as you but all the above is correct. Fitz coulda put up the yards but would have made more killer mistakes and was anti-clutch (though not yesterday haha) and I wouldn't take Tyrod Taylor back on this team if you paid me $1million of his salary. Tyrod would have taken this team to 8-8 and probably every other Bills team for all eternity. Allen is already better than him and he has a ceiling Tyrod couldn't dream of.

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm still not quite as sold on Allen as you but all the above is correct. Fitz coulda put up the yards but would have made more killer mistakes and was anti-clutch (though not yesterday haha) and I wouldn't take Tyrod Taylor back on this team if you paid me $1million of his salary. Tyrod would have taken this team to 8-8 and probably every other Bills team for all eternity. Allen is already better than him and he has a ceiling Tyrod couldn't dream of.

 

Agreed.

 

And for those of you looking for an impartial view, keep in mind that Gunner was a just-say-no-to-Allen guy leading up to the 2018 draft.

[BringBackOrton]

51 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The 2017 offense featured a 1,100 yard back that scored 6 rushing TDs. The team also got scores from the defense in key wins against Oakland and Atlanta. In a support role, Taylor produced 18 total TDs and 8 total TOs. He produced 3,200 yards of total offense. 

 

This year, no Bills RB eclipsed 800 yards. The entire team scored only 6 TDs that didn't involve Allen. Despite a relative lack of support offensively, he produced 3,600 yards of total offense with 29 TDs and 13 TOs. He also lead 4 4th quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives. In 2017, Taylor lead 1 and 2, respectively.

 

If we're looking at this team, with this staff and this support group operating this offense, then I would call it the height of insanity to claim that either Tyrod or Fitz would've done the same, let alone to say they'd have done it easily.

 

No offense.

A lack of support offensively for Allen, and not TT who was throwing to big fat, Zay Jones, the corpse of Charles Clay and Andre Holmes?

 

TT also dealt with a far worse defense week in and week out, “key scores” aside.

 

Also fun fact, the 2019 Bills had more team rushing yards than the 2017 Bills did. I know I know, no one hit >800, but that’s hard to do when carries are basically split between two guys. And also that’s not a metric that matters.

 

Tyrod sucks but you’re being disingenuous.

Edited December 30, 2019 by BringBackOrton

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The 2017 offense featured a 1,100 yard back that scored 6 rushing TDs. The team also got scores from the defense in key wins against Oakland and Atlanta. In a support role, Taylor produced 18 total TDs and 8 total TOs. He produced 3,200 yards of total offense. 

 

This year, no Bills RB eclipsed 800 yards. The entire team scored only 6 TDs that didn't involve Allen. Despite a relative lack of support offensively, he produced 3,600 yards of total offense with 29 TDs and 13 TOs. He also lead 4 4th quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives. In 2017, Taylor lead 1 and 2, respectively.

 

If we're looking at this team, with this staff and this support group operating this offense, then I would call it the height of insanity to claim that either Tyrod or Fitz would've done the same, let alone to say they'd have done it easily.

 

No offense.

 

Great post.

 

Also it's flat out wrong for people to claim that "Tyrod took the bills to the playoffs" in 2017.  The Bills backed in.  It took a miracle Cincinnati effort in the last game to get the Bills into the playoffs.  Then the following week Tyrod led the Bills to one of the weakest offensive showings I've ever seen in a modern NFL playoff game.

 

Now this season you can say that "Allen took the Bills to the playoffs" or that the Defense "took the Bills to the playoffs" or that it was a total Team Effort that took the Bills to the playoffs.  But wherever you give credit, this year the Bills EARNED their way into the playoffs.

 

 

[Billy Claude]

I think the main distinction is Tyrod got worse each year and Allen has gotten better each year, at least for his first two years.

 

I would argue that first year Tyrod was better than second year Allen but third year Tyrod was worse than second year Allen. 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Allen overthrows Knox just as much as anyone. Being big and physical only works if the QB gives you the opportunity to make a contested catch. So what Allen must do is trust his guy to make a play instead of trying to make the perfect throw or worrying about an INT. 

 

It's very hard for QBs to trust it though. Something Allen will hopefully learn to do.

 

Knox???

 

Allen overthrows Knox just as much as anyone?

 

You sure about that... or are you just honing in on the 2 EZ misses vs the Patriots?

 

Remember, you're referring to the Dawson Knox who I'm pretty sure leads the NFL in drops.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Knox???

 

Allen overthrows Knox just as much as anyone?

 

You sure about that... or are you just honing in on the 2 EZ misses vs the Patriots?

 

Remember, you're referring to the Dawson Knox who I'm pretty sure leads the NFL in drops.

Knox drops a lot of passes and Allen overthrows WR's. Nothing is incorrect.

[thebandit27]

29 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

A lack of support offensively for Allen, and not TT who was throwing to big fat, Zay Jones, the corpse of Charles Clay and Andre Holmes?

 

TT also dealt with a far worse defense week in and week out, “key scores” aside.

 

Also fun fact, the 2019 Bills had more team rushing yards than the 2017 Bills did. I know I know, no one hit >800, but that’s hard to do when carries are basically split between two guys. And also that’s not a metric that matters.

 

Tyrod sucks but you’re being disingenuous.

 

Hardly.

 

The design of the 2017 offense was entirely different and really didn't ask the QB to make plays. Allen has more or less been the entire offense.

 

By the way, that "much worse" defense actually forced 5 more turnovers and scored 3 more TDs than this year's.

 

You can keep trying to parse through minutiae if you'd like; the point here is pretty simple: in this offense, with this design and approach, with this group of personnel, saying that either Taylor or Fitz would've easily gotten this team to the playoffs is bonkers.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

Allen showed clear improvement in 2019 vs 2018 in almost all areas - and the stats reflect that. As the season went on, he improved in terms of ball security, but did not improve enough in decision making and passing accuracy to spark the offense and rise to the "top 10" level. His overall completion percentage is near the bottom of the league, but you can argue that his TD to INT ratio, plus his running ability, puts him well above QBs with a higher comp % in terms of effectiveness. Still - he (and the offense) needs to improve further if the Bills are going to reach the Super Bowl or even remain consistent playoff contenders throughout his career. 58.8% is not good enough to win consistently in today's NFL, despite the playoff berth this season. 

[JaCrispy]

11 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Here you go my friend.

 

I think that Fitz COULD have taken this team to the postseason. I think Allen is a better offensive weapon in totality, he’s better at some things than Fitz as a passer and worse than Fitz at others IMO,  and I’d much rather have Allen going forward because these are all obvious things.

 

Imagine that. Two separate thoughts in a brain. And it doesn’t mean “hurr durr you’d trade Allen for Fitz?”

 

I will continue to claim that there’s a Josh Allen gas leak because it’s obvious to me. The people who cry about how Josh sucks every week are deranged, but that doesn’t mean you have to join them in the intellectual dumpster.

Josh has been pretty hit or miss with the swing pass going back to last year. I’m not sure if the reason they don’t call it often because it doesn’t work that often. Similar to screens. 

I won’t join you on this strawman branch. You can read the above.

Hey, you know you’re not allowed to have nuanced thinking around here...in the words of Greta, “How dare you?!?!” ?

Edited December 30, 2019 by JaCrispy

[BringBackOrton]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hardly.

 

The design of the 2017 offense was entirely different and really didn't ask the QB to make plays. Allen has more or less been the entire offense.

 

By the way, that "much worse" defense actually forced 5 more turnovers and scored 3 more TDs than this year's.

 

You can keep trying to parse through minutiae if you'd like; the point here is pretty simple: in this offense, with this design and approach, with this group of personnel, saying that either Taylor or Fitz would've easily gotten this team to the playoffs is bonkers.

That much worse defense allowed um 6 more points per game. Kind of a meaningful difference in the NFL.

 

Your saying the offense “didn’t ask the QB to make plays” in 2017? And you’re basing that off what, exactly?

 

 

[jletha]

17 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Allen showed clear improvement in 2019 vs 2018 in almost all areas - and the stats reflect that. As the season went on, he improved in terms of ball security, but did not improve enough in decision making and passing accuracy to spark the offense and rise to the "top 10" level. His overall completion percentage is near the bottom of the league, but you can argue that his TD to INT ratio, plus his running ability, puts him well above QBs with a higher comp % in terms of effectiveness. Still - he (and the offense) needs to improve further if the Bills are going to reach the Super Bowl or even remain consistent playoff contenders throughout his career. 58.8% is not good enough to win consistently in today's NFL, despite the playoff berth this season. 

This is pretty spot on. completion % isnt the best stat to look at a QB but no matter what the circumstances its gotta be higher. Certainly Josh dealt with some drops but so does every QB. I do think his adjusted completion % will be better in terms of league ranking than his raw completion % though, which is more important. Onward and Upward.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That much worse defense allowed um 6 more points per game. Kind of a meaningful difference in the NFL.

 

Your saying the offense “didn’t ask the QB to make plays” in 2017? And you’re basing that off what, exactly?

 

 

 

Well, for one, I watched the games.

 

For another, the QB attempted 420 passes in 14 games despite playing from behind an appreciable amount of time. 

 

Allen had roughly the same number of attempts per game despite that the Bills were rarely trailing. And when they were, he usually lead them back to the lead.

 

But if you feel that strongly that Taylor would've easily replicated Allen's production, despite there being zero supporting evidence, then I'll leave you to that.

[Big Gun]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So my pre-season barometer for us to feel we have seen sufficient progress from Josh was the year 2 of Mitch Trubisky (not saying that meeting those number proves anything - Trubisky's fall off in year 3 shows that). I just felt those were the sorts of numbers that would lead you to feel reasonably good about where Josh is at. 

 

Comparison (Mitch played 14 games in 2018, Josh basically 15 in 2019):

 

Attempts: Trubisky - 434; Allen - 456.

Completion: Trubisky - 66.6%; Allen - 58.8%

Passing Yards: Trubisky - 3,223; Allen - 3,084

Total Yards: Trubisky - 3,644; Allen - 3,594

Passing TDs: Trubisky - 24; Allen - 20

Total TDs: Trubisky - 27; Allen - 29

INTs: Trubisky - 12; Allen - 9

Total Turnovers: Trubisky - 15; Allen - 13

 

I think that provides reasonable grounds for optimism. Josh did, by and large, reach those sorts of levels. He remains a little more dependant on his running but part of the reason I thought Mitch was a decent barometer was that his running helps him out significantly too (and also that he had a great D and therefore wasn't in shootouts). I still think completion percentage ended a little below where it needs ultimately to be. That isn't all on Josh and the Bills still had some awful drops, but some of the more difficult drops are still on balls where Josh has no reason to miss and a more accurate ball is a completion. 

 

I don't think Josh Allen has proven himself a franchise Quarterback, yet. He has improved significantly, that is beyond question. But he needs to take another step in year 3. There is reason for optimism but Allen hasn't yet arrived. Finding his top level more consistently will be required in 2020.

I would like to know what your definition of "franchise quarterback" is, because Josh Allen is going to be the Bills QB for at least the next 10-12 years.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, pop gun said:

I would like to know what your definition of "franchise quarterback" is, because Josh Allen is going to be the Bills QB for at least the next 10-12 years.

 

Well I am not quite there yet. I hope so. But he still has to keep improving for that to happen. All I am saying is he is pretty much on track at this stage but I am not ready to go to "he is definitely the guy for 10 plus years". 

[Mango]

15 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

Allens completion % is a direct result of our offense

 

he hardly gets easy passes to pad his stats. no screens, quick slants, RB dumpoffs that Brady thrives with. 

 

His completion percentage is about the same as his college average and the college game is full of easy throws. 

 

Daboll has been frustrating, yes, but Allen isn't exaclty performing "out of character" either. 

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

His completion percentage is about the same as his college average and the college game is full of easy throws. 

 

Daboll has been frustrating, yes, but Allen isn't exaclty performing "out of character" either. 

 

The proverbial college game is, yes. Dave Bohl's system at Wyoming, however, was not.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Knox drops a lot of passes and Allen overthrows WR's. Nothing is incorrect.

 

6 tracked dropped passes right now for Knox.

 

Remember that dropped passes as a stat are the blatant, obvious ones. They don't include all passes that were catchable in some way.

 

I said in that post Allen needs a big, reliable receiver. I assume you brought up Knox as a counter to that--I guess you're somehow trying to argue that Knox is that guy?

 

If Knox were that guy and Knox alone didn't drop any passes (but everyone else on the Bills still did), Allen's completion percentage right now would be 60.1%.

 

And then just imagine if Bills WRs could actually come down with some of those acrobatic catchable passes you see consistently across the NFL...

 

You're right that Allen could improve his accuracy. Absolutely. But the approach of leaving him without some big bodied reliable WRs in favor of all smurfs is a disservice to a young, raw QB.