Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Fitz just beat the Pats with objectively worse personnel. He also went 5-8 with the worst defense in the NFL. He also has one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL.

 

Fitz is having a good year.

 

That's why he's been on half the teams in the NFL. He's a journeyman backup that'll give you 2-3 great games each year. 

 

Not sure why anyone would say he's anything else 

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's why he's been on half the teams in the NFL. He's a journeyman backup that'll give you 2-3 great games each year. 

 

Not sure why anyone would say he's anything else 

Fitz winning 5 games with that personnel is great.

 

How many “great” games did Allen have this year?

[thebandit27]

Just now, BringBackOrton said:

Fitz winning 5 games with that personnel is great.

 

How many “great” games did Allen have this year?

 

Ok, so you'd rather have Fitz than Allen?

 

Well, I'm not going to call you an idiot, but I will definitely say that 32/32 NFL GMs would probably call that opinion idiotic.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Fitz winning 5 games with that personnel is great.

 

How many “great” games did Allen have this year?

 

How many years in his career is Fitz?

How many years in his career is Allen?

[transplantbillsfan]

Onto the playoffs baby!!!

 

Glad they sat Allen quickly!

 

This Buffalo team is a road team!!! Let's take it to Houston next week!!!

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, TuelTime said:

 

Tyrod took a worse team to the playoffs. In pretty much the same manner. Stout defense, strong run game, and conservative offensive play calling (less than 25 passes a game) with a QB who can pick up first downs with his legs. Don't get me wrong, I like Josh Allen, but so far I see an average QB. An average QB with potential, but I thought (and I wasn't alone) that Tyrod had potential as well.

 

My concern with Allen is that he is going to do just enough for the front office to keep him around like Tyrod and Fitz, while never taking the next step and becoming a true franchise QB. This team has the wins, but if we're being honest they are not because Allen has played "great". I want Allen to succeed, but I haven't seen anything that would stop me from drafting a mid-round QB this year.

 

This 100%...i always felt drafting a mid round QB was inevitable- but not because of Allen, but rather to groom as an eventual replacement for Barkley...

 

We all hope Josh can realize his full potential...next season (year 3) will be telling...he has to give everyone confidence he can finally carry the team imo...

[CoudyBills]

4 hours ago, TuelTime said:

 

Tyrod took a worse team to the playoffs. In pretty much the same manner. Stout defense, strong run game, and conservative offensive play calling (less than 25 passes a game) with a QB who can pick up first downs with his legs. Don't get me wrong, I like Josh Allen, but so far I see an average QB. An average QB with potential, but I thought (and I wasn't alone) that Tyrod had potential as well.

 

My concern with Allen is that he is going to do just enough for the front office to keep him around like Tyrod and Fitz, while never taking the next step and becoming a true franchise QB. This team has the wins, but if we're being honest they are not because Allen has played "great". I want Allen to succeed, but I haven't seen anything that would stop me from drafting a mid-round QB this year.

 

A mid-round quarterback?  Dude, don't hedge.  Pound the table for a top QB pick.  If you believe it just say it.  

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Ok, so you'd rather have Fitz than Allen?

 

Well, I'm not going to call you an idiot, but I will definitely say that 32/32 NFL GMs would probably call that opinion idiotic.

I definitely remember saying I’d rather have Fitz than Allen.

 

You've gotten very strawmanny in your old age bandito.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

I definitely remember saying I’d rather have Fitz than Allen.

 

You've gotten very strawmanny in your old age bandito.

 

Then what was the point?

 

That Fitz won against NE and therefore is superior to Allen?

 

If not, what was it?

 

Miami won because they got a timely defensive TD and NE's defense fell apart down the stretch. Good. And good for Fitz.

 

But if anyone thinks that either he or Tyrod are getting similar results to Allen with this scheme and this personnel group, well, I vehemently disagree.

[Tesla03]

Allens completion % is a direct result of our offense

 

he hardly gets easy passes to pad his stats. no screens, quick slants, RB dumpoffs that Brady thrives with. 

Edited December 30, 2019 by Tesla03

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Then what was the point?

 

That Fitz won against NE and therefore is superior to Allen?

 

If not, what was it?

 

Miami won because they got a timely defensive TD and NE's defense fell apart down the stretch. Good. And good for Fitz.

 

But if anyone thinks that either he or Tyrod are getting similar results to Allen with this scheme and this personnel group, well, I vehemently disagree.

Here you go my friend.

 

I think that Fitz COULD have taken this team to the postseason. I think Allen is a better offensive weapon in totality, he’s better at some things than Fitz as a passer and worse than Fitz at others IMO,  and I’d much rather have Allen going forward because these are all obvious things.

 

Imagine that. Two separate thoughts in a brain. And it doesn’t mean “hurr durr you’d trade Allen for Fitz?”

 

I will continue to claim that there’s a Josh Allen gas leak because it’s obvious to me. The people who cry about how Josh sucks every week are deranged, but that doesn’t mean you have to join them in the intellectual dumpster.

3 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

Allens completion % is a direct result of our offense

 

he hardly gets easy passes to pad his stats. no screens, quick slants, RB dumpoffs that Brady thrives with. 

Josh has been pretty hit or miss with the swing pass going back to last year. I’m not sure if the reason they don’t call it often because it doesn’t work that often. Similar to screens. 

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How many years in his career is Fitz?

How many years in his career is Allen?

I won’t join you on this strawman branch. You can read the above.

Edited December 30, 2019 by BringBackOrton

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Josh has been pretty hit or miss with the swing pass going back to last year. I’m not sure if the reason they don’t call it often because it doesn’t work that often. Similar to screens. 

 

Josh has improved his ability to hit the swing pass and the short/intermediate passes tremendously from last season.  They don't put up the numerical charts from Nextgenstats until the end of the season, maybe someone knows another source, but it should show marked improvement.

 

I do feel he is falling off on passes he was making more reliably earlier in the season though.   Maybe he got into some sloppy footwork habits after he injured his ankle against the Ravens.

 

Quote

I won’t join you on this strawman branch. You can read the above.

 

Snide.  You said "Fitz winning 5 games with that personnel is great.  How many “great” games did Allen have this year?"

I think the implication is clear.  Not much straw in asking you to pause your admiration and reflect how many seasons each of them have.

[VW82]

On 12/28/2019 at 1:19 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wow.  Just.....Wow.  Listen to you: "money quotes for those too lazy to click the link"

Money quotes.

Not for those who aren't interested in the guys take, or aren't motivated to read "yet another analytics dude thinks Allen sucks 'cuz Numbers"

"For those two lazy to click the link"

 

I don't say this often, and I don't say this lightly, but please: Get Over Yourself.

 

You sure are working hard at getting all bent out of shape over a pretty innocuous comment.

 

Quote

It may have good points, it may not have good points.  A bunch of its points seem strange to me - why are we concerned about fumbles in the last 10 weeks?  Why not 8 weeks?  Or 6 weeks? 

 

I suspect it's because many writers/fans have pointed to Allen's improved turnover numbers post NE/Tenn. He appears to be picking the time frame most favorable to Allen to better prove his point. 

 

Quote

But fundamentally, I'm at "Behold the field Wherein I Grow my ***** and Lo, how it is Barren" where the analytics crowd is concerned and have no interest in pursuing their takes at this point.

 

Josh Allen has always been a test case for the efficacy of eyeball, boots-on-the-ground scouting vs analytics.  That hasn't changed. 

 

I don't think anybody, including Josh Allen or Brian Daboll or Sean McDermott, think that he has arrived at an acceptable level of professional NFL QBing.

I think that the people who work with him, day in and day out, see marked improvement. 

 

Until we see if he takes a step (and it won't be until next season at this point, if we see it), everything else is just wasting electrons.

 

You responded to my post but don't appear to have even read the article, much of which was dedicated to a film breakdown of Josh's various bugaboos. I quoted some of the stats which were also used to support his arguments, but it would seem a stretch to just blanket write off this writer as "analytics crowd." I find it ironic that you lambasted my "too lazy to click" comment and yet it would appear you fall directly into that group. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

At this point I think it's hard to make an argument that Allen is one of the 10 best QBs in the NFL.

 

Obviously.

 

Stats and everything else supports that.

 

However, if you actually watch the games, it's also hard to make the argument that this kid is one of the 10 worst QBs in the NFL.

 

Trajectory is aimed solidly up.

 

I'm not really going to be shocked by anything in the upcoming playoff game(s) because anything is still possible with Allen.

 

This playoff road game will be his 29th NFL start.

 

Most surprising but not utterly shocking to me would be a 3+ turnover game. I think he's gotten those out of his system, but it's possible, though I think really unlikely.

 

More likely is Daboll and McDermott going conservative and handing the ball off 25+ times. If we do that and our defense plays well, I think that's the recipe for success.

 

Then again, on the opposite end of the spectrum, I wouldn't be surprised if this game against the Texans were a breakout game for Allen with the long awaited 300 yards and 3+ TDs.

 

I literally don't expect anything this weekend.

 

Truthfully, I'm more worried about our Defense than I am Allen. I think Allen is a gamer and is pretty likely going to show up to at least make a game of it.

 

Our defense needs to be as advertised... because it hasn't been that Elite Defense so many have claimed it to be for too many critical chunks of the season. Sorry Defense. Sucks to be you... but you came into the season screaming that you believed you could be the best Defense in the NFL...well, ya weren't.

 

Help your young 2nd year QB out and rise to the occasion please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and on a side note... put the useless, unproductive Foster on the bench and just activate Duke already to give Allen what he should have had all year: a big, hungry, generally reliable (yes I know he dropped a couple today... but he also gave Buffalo only it's 5th 100+ yard receiving day today) receiver who a young QB can throw it to and expect him to fight for the ball.

 

I don't think this last thing will happen, though. Daboll is stubborn.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

At this point I think it's hard to make an argument that Allen is one of the 10 best QBs in the NFL.

 

Obviously.

 

Stats and everything else supports that.

 

However, if you actually watch the games, it's also hard to make the argument that this kid is one of the 10 worst QBs in the NFL.

 

Trajectory is aimed solidly up.

 

I'm not really going to be shocked by anything in the upcoming playoff game(s) because anything is still possible with Allen.

 

This playoff road game will be his 29th NFL start.

 

Most surprising but not utterly shocking to me would be a 3+ turnover game. I think he's gotten those out of his system, but it's possible, though I think really unlikely.

 

More likely is Daboll and McDermott going conservative and handing the ball off 25+ times. If we do that and our defense plays well, I think that's the recipe for success.

 

Then again, on the opposite end of the spectrum, I wouldn't be surprised if this game against the Texans were a breakout game for Allen with the long awaited 300 yards and 3+ TDs.

 

I literally don't expect anything this weekend.

 

Truthfully, I'm more worried about our Defense than I am Allen. I think Allen is a gamer and is pretty likely going to show up to at least make a game of it.

 

Our defense needs to be as advertised... because it hasn't been that Elite Defense so many have claimed it to be for too many critical chunks of the season. Sorry Defense. Sucks to be you... but you came into the season screaming that you believed you could be the best Defense in the NFL...well, ya weren't.

 

Help your young 2nd year QB out and rise to the occasion please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and on a side note... put the useless, unproductive Foster on the bench and just activate Duke already to give Allen what he should have had all year: a big, hungry, generally reliable (yes I know he dropped a couple today... but he also gave Buffalo only it's 5th 100+ yard receiving day today) receiver who a young QB can throw it to and expect him to fight for the ball.

 

I don't think this last thing will happen, though. Daboll is stubborn.

Allen overthrows Knox just as much as anyone. Being big and physical only works if the QB gives you the opportunity to make a contested catch. So what Allen must do is trust his guy to make a play instead of trying to make the perfect throw or worrying about an INT. 

 

It's very hard for QBs to trust it though. Something Allen will hopefully learn to do.

[BringBackOrton]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Josh has improved his ability to hit the swing pass and the short/intermediate passes tremendously from last season.  They don't put up the numerical charts from Nextgenstats until the end of the season, maybe someone knows another source, but it should show marked improvement.

 

I do feel he is falling off on passes he was making more reliably earlier in the season though.   Maybe he got into some sloppy footwork habits after he injured his ankle against the Ravens.

 

 

Snide.  You said "Fitz winning 5 games with that personnel is great.  How many “great” games did Allen have this year?"

I think the implication is clear.  Not much straw in asking you to pause your admiration and reflect how many seasons each of them have.

Instead of answering the question, you posed another question for a different point than the one I was making. To pretend like I’m claiming that Allen is equally experienced to Fitz is asinine or disingenuous or both. I won’t bother responding to that level of discourse any more. If you’d like to have productive discussions, let’s elevate our game.

[GunnerBill]

So my pre-season barometer for us to feel we have seen sufficient progress from Josh was the year 2 of Mitch Trubisky (not saying that meeting those number proves anything - Trubisky's fall off in year 3 shows that). I just felt those were the sorts of numbers that would lead you to feel reasonably good about where Josh is at. 

 

Comparison (Mitch played 14 games in 2018, Josh basically 15 in 2019):

 

Attempts: Trubisky - 434; Allen - 456.

Completion: Trubisky - 66.6%; Allen - 58.8%

Passing Yards: Trubisky - 3,223; Allen - 3,084

Total Yards: Trubisky - 3,644; Allen - 3,594

Passing TDs: Trubisky - 24; Allen - 20

Total TDs: Trubisky - 27; Allen - 29

INTs: Trubisky - 12; Allen - 9

Total Turnovers: Trubisky - 15; Allen - 13

 

I think that provides reasonable grounds for optimism. Josh did, by and large, reach those sorts of levels. He remains a little more dependant on his running but part of the reason I thought Mitch was a decent barometer was that his running helps him out significantly too (and also that he had a great D and therefore wasn't in shootouts). I still think completion percentage ended a little below where it needs ultimately to be. That isn't all on Josh and the Bills still had some awful drops, but some of the more difficult drops are still on balls where Josh has no reason to miss and a more accurate ball is a completion. 

 

I don't think Josh Allen has proven himself a franchise Quarterback, yet. He has improved significantly, that is beyond question. But he needs to take another step in year 3. There is reason for optimism but Allen hasn't yet arrived. Finding his top level more consistently will be required in 2020.

[longtimebillsfan]

I am not sure why we keep debating this.  Allen is our future.  If you don't agree with that decision, fair enough.   But why not jump on the bandwagon and root for the best QB the Bills have had in the 21st century.  It will be much more enjoyable.

Edited December 30, 2019 by longtimebillsfan

[uticaclub]

7 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

Allens completion % is a direct result of our offense

 

he hardly gets easy passes to pad his stats. no screens, quick slants, RB dumpoffs that Brady thrives with. 

Allen might not be able to complete those passes

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I am not sure why we keep debating this.  Allen is our future.  If you don't agree with that decision, fair enough.   But why not jump on the bandwagon and root for the best QB the Bills have had in the 21st century.  It will be much more enjoyable.

 

Maybe for you it is and that is fine. I get why for some fans it is more fun that way. But that isn't everyone. I promise you I am rooting for Josh - I root for every player that wears the jersey - I want the Bills to win as much as anyone. But it is not more fun for me to just buy in without trying to analyse. It is just how I am wired. I am the guy who comes out of the movie theatre after watching a 3 hour blockbuster and has noticed the two continuity errors in the film. I am not good at switching off and just consuming entertainment - be it sport or cinema or tv or whatever. And I enjoy that side of it. We are all different and we all support in different ways.