Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Zerovoltz]

6 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

 

....If you only read Josh Allen posts, you might think that's all I do here...and somehow, when I have postive things to say about Allen...no one remembers because those get lost among all the many other similar posts.....I've posted in several other topics here about football in general, or about stadiums, draft stuff...ETC. 

 

Someone mentioned in a post that i didn't need to have gone to the trouble of posting all that crap I posted, and just say what I really think of Allen.  I've said it before....here it is again.

 

1.  I thought Allen wouldn't work out in the NFL based on his college career and numbers. 

2.  I noted at the time, as many others have, that Allen would be the ultimate test case of analytics VS. old school scouting.

3.  I stated more than once here, that I wanted Allen to prove the analytics people wrong because that pendulum has swung too far toward the data, and forgets we are dealing with humans, and you can't put a metric on certain human qualities.

4. Even as I have thought he wouldn't succeed...I have rooted for him.  I like him.  He is fun to watch play.  I like the Bills.  I spent time with Poncho Villa at the 2018 draft, posted pictures of that, bought my kid a Bills jersey.  

5.  While still enjoying Allen play, and marvelling at his athleticism, charisma and arm....I still remain concerned and skeptical of the passing overall.  

6.  I completely agree 100% Allen is your franchise QB.  He's well established and entrenched as the man, as he should be.  The debate now isn't if Allen is going to be a successful NFL starter.  He is that right now today.  The debate is will he continue to improve and become that guy that carries a team to a championship...

 

I remain skeptical that unless he becomes a more efficient passer (note, I didn't use Comp%) then I am not sure that Allen, can carry a team to a championship.  I don't think my skepticism is unfounded...many others here are as well....I do think it's highly unappreciated because I am an "outsider".  I do understand that it's like when someone beats up your brother, you want to go kick their ass.  But....you can beat up on your brother because he's family.  .......noted......   

 

Fortunatly for everyone...we get to watch and see what happens.   

[Gugny]

17 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

....If you only read Josh Allen posts, you might think that's all I do here...and somehow, when I have postive things to say about Allen...no one remembers because those get lost among all the many other similar posts.....I've posted in several other topics here about football in general, or about stadiums, draft stuff...ETC. 

 

Someone mentioned in a post that i didn't need to have gone to the trouble of posting all that crap I posted, and just say what I really think of Allen.  I've said it before....here it is again.

 

1.  I thought Allen wouldn't work out in the NFL based on his college career and numbers. 

2.  I noted at the time, as many others have, that Allen would be the ultimate test case of analytics VS. old school scouting.

3.  I stated more than once here, that I wanted Allen to prove the analytics people wrong because that pendulum has swung too far toward the data, and forgets we are dealing with humans, and you can't put a metric on certain human qualities.

4. Even as I have thought he wouldn't succeed...I have rooted for him.  I like him.  He is fun to watch play.  I like the Bills.  I spent time with Poncho Villa at the 2018 draft, posted pictures of that, bought my kid a Bills jersey.  

5.  While still enjoying Allen play, and marvelling at his athleticism, charisma and arm....I still remain concerned and skeptical of the passing overall.  

6.  I completely agree 100% Allen is your franchise QB.  He's well established and entrenched as the man, as he should be.  The debate now isn't if Allen is going to be a successful NFL starter.  He is that right now today.  The debate is will he continue to improve and become that guy that carries a team to a championship...

 

I remain skeptical that unless he becomes a more efficient passer (note, I didn't use Comp%) then I am not sure that Allen, can carry a team to a championship.  I don't think my skepticism is unfounded...many others here are as well....I do think it's highly unappreciated because I am an "outsider".  I do understand that it's like when someone beats up your brother, you want to go kick their ass.  But....you can beat up on your brother because he's family.  .......noted......   

 

Fortunatly for everyone...we get to watch and see what happens.   

 

You should just consider stopping.  Seriously.

 

[Zerovoltz]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

You should just consider stopping.  Seriously.

 

 

Good advice....I'm going to take a seat on the bench on this one.  out.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

....If you only read Josh Allen posts, you might think that's all I do here...and somehow, when I have postive things to say about Allen...no one remembers because those get lost among all the many other similar posts.....I've posted in several other topics here about football in general, or about stadiums, draft stuff...ETC. 

 

Someone mentioned in a post that i didn't need to have gone to the trouble of posting all that crap I posted, and just say what I really think of Allen.  I've said it before....here it is again.

 

1.  I thought Allen wouldn't work out in the NFL based on his college career and numbers. 

2.  I noted at the time, as many others have, that Allen would be the ultimate test case of analytics VS. old school scouting.

3.  I stated more than once here, that I wanted Allen to prove the analytics people wrong because that pendulum has swung too far toward the data, and forgets we are dealing with humans, and you can't put a metric on certain human qualities.

4. Even as I have thought he wouldn't succeed...I have rooted for him.  I like him.  He is fun to watch play.  I like the Bills.  I spent time with Poncho Villa at the 2018 draft, posted pictures of that, bought my kid a Bills jersey.  

5.  While still enjoying Allen play, and marvelling at his athleticism, charisma and arm....I still remain concerned and skeptical of the passing overall.  

6.  I completely agree 100% Allen is your franchise QB.  He's well established and entrenched as the man, as he should be.  The debate now isn't if Allen is going to be a successful NFL starter.  He is that right now today.  The debate is will he continue to improve and become that guy that carries a team to a championship...

 

I remain skeptical that unless he becomes a more efficient passer (note, I didn't use Comp%) then I am not sure that Allen, can carry a team to a championship.  I don't think my skepticism is unfounded...many others here are as well....I do think it's highly unappreciated because I am an "outsider".  I do understand that it's like when someone beats up your brother, you want to go kick their ass.  But....you can beat up on your brother because he's family.  .......noted......   

 

Fortunatly for everyone...we get to watch and see what happens.   

 

So now Allen is a successful NFL starter???

 

Bruh... talk about backtracking

[TuelTime]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So now Allen is a successful NFL starter???

 

Bruh... talk about backtracking

 

He has played well enough to be the starting QB for the Buffalo Bills next year. But...

 

I'd be hard pressed to call him a "successful" NFL starter. Why? Because he is on a team with a dominate defense and is just barely doing enough to get into the playoffs with a pretty favorable schedule. Tyrod or Fitz could've easily led this team to the playoffs this year and they're only considered "successful" backups.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 minutes ago, TuelTime said:

 

He has played well enough to be the starting QB for the Buffalo Bills next year. But...

 

I'd be hard pressed to call him a "successful" NFL starter. Why? Because he is on a team with a dominate defense and is just barely doing enough to get into the playoffs with a pretty favorable schedule. Tyrod or Fitz could've easily led this team to the playoffs this year and they're only considered "successful" backups.

 

Your name says it all.

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, TuelTime said:

. Tyrod or Fitz could've easily led this team to the playoffs this year and they're only considered "successful" backups.

 

???????????

 

I would LOVE to hear the justification for the idea that Tyrod or Fitz could easily have taken this team, with this OC and personnel, to the playoffs.

 

Honestly I can't wait to read that.

[thebandit27]

12 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Maybe but I thought that was what Beasley I'd good at.

 

Beasley is good at creating separation resulting from start-stop/COD once he's set up his route. It takes him a relative while with regard to play timing. He's not generally open in the first 3 steps of a route.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Beasley is good at creating separation resulting from start-stop/COD once he's set up his route. It takes him a relative while with regard to play timing. He's not generally open in the first 3 steps of a route.

 

Right, and, as a team, Allen's top receivers are 22nd in the NFL in distance of separation at the time of the catch.

[aristocrat]

87 pages holy you know what.   not sure if it's been brought up here but look at cam's comp percentage last season when they started running the offense through mcaff.  from 59 percent to 67 percent cause they ran 10 screens a game to mcaff who catches like 90 percent of them.  we need to to get a rb with that ability and scheme more of those and you'll see allen's numbers look better.  rb is right up there with wr as far as need in the draft or free agency for me.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

???????????

 

I would LOVE to hear the justification for the idea that Tyrod or Fitz could easily have taken this team, with this OC and personnel, to the playoffs.

 

Honestly I can't wait to read that.

 

Well, Tyrod did take us to the playoffs in a WCO that didn't really suit him 2 years ago.....I suppose the thinking is he contributes about as much with his legs as Allen did, and that for the intermediate, anticipation, into coverage throws he would not make, he would hit some deep shots accurately to compensate?  I don't think our run game is as good now as it was then.  I think it unlikely - Tyrod would have had a hella steep learning curve with the EP offense, defenses would play him like the anti-Allen - play to take away the deep ball and dare him to make the reads, decipher the coverage, and pull the trigger.  And I don't think Daboll would be any more willing to tailor the offense to Taylor than to Allen.

 

Fitz, of course, is a master at the EP offense, but I think his brain would write too many checks that his body can't cash resulting in Picksomatic Playtastrophe.  Which I do hope we do NOT see in Foxboro today (correction: unless it's from a Patriots QB, in which case, pray continue....)

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Tyrod have THE best 4th qtr comp EVER!!!

 

 

 

 

(with a lead)

 

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Well, Tyrod did take us to the playoffs in a WCO that didn't really suit him 2 years ago..

eh hem. That was Andy Dalton  

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, Tyrod did take us to the playoffs in a WCO that didn't really suit him 2 years ago.....I suppose the thinking is he contributes about as much with his legs as Allen did, and that for the intermediate, anticipation, into coverage throws he would not make, he would hit some deep shots accurately to compensate?  I don't think our run game is as good now as it was then.  I think it unlikely - Tyrod would have had a hella steep learning curve with the EP offense, defenses would play him like the anti-Allen - play to take away the deep ball and dare him to make the reads, decipher the coverage, and pull the trigger.  And I don't think Daboll would be any more willing to tailor the offense to Taylor than to Allen.

 

Fitz, of course, is a master at the EP offense, but I think his brain would write too many checks that his body can't cash resulting in Picksomatic Playtastrophe.  Which I do hope we do NOT see in Foxboro today.

 

 

Not to mention that Tyrod wasn't anywhere near the red zone QB that Allen is, and that Fitz has absolutely zero interest or ability to protect the football.

[Foxx]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, Tyrod did take us to the playoffs in a WCO that didn't really suit him 2 years ago.....I suppose the thinking is he contributes about as much with his legs as Allen did, and that for the intermediate, anticipation, into coverage throws he would not make, he would hit some deep shots accurately to compensate?  I don't think our run game is as good now as it was then.  I think it unlikely - Tyrod would have had a hella steep learning curve with the EP offense, defenses would play him like the anti-Allen - play to take away the deep ball and dare him to make the reads, decipher the coverage, and pull the trigger.  And I don't think Daboll would be any more willing to tailor the offense to Taylor than to Allen.

 

Fitz, of course, is a master at the EP offense, but I think his brain would write too many checks that his body can't cash resulting in Picksomatic Playtastrophe.  Which I do hope we do NOT see in Foxboro today.

 

i remember that at the time, it was stated that we were going to run the WCO. i also remember back then stating that there was no way in hell Tyrod could run the WCO. it turned out he couldn't and we didn't. i'm not sure exactly what we ran but it sure wasn't a WCO. 

Edited December 29, 2019 by Foxx

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Tyrod have THE best 4th qtr comp EVER!!!

(with a lead)

eh hem. That was Andy Dalton

 

We don't win 9 games, we don't get in. 

Why is it so hard for peoples to give TT his propers?  I love me some Josh and 100% "in" that we moved on, but Taylor played a significant role in those wins.

 

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

i remember that at the time, it was stated that we were going to run the WCO. i also remember back then stating that there was no way in hell Tyrod could run the WCO. it turned out he couldn't and we didn't. i'm not sure what exactly we ran but it sure wasn't a WCO. 

 

I think what we ran was what a WCO looks like when you don't have the QB or the precise route-running to run it

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

... I think what we ran was what a WCO looks like when you don't have the QB or the precise route-running to run it

or the ability to release the damn ball at the top of your drop. 

 

those people in the stands are very grateful they no longer have to hear me yell, " throw the ***** ball!!!!!".

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

87 pages holy you know what.   not sure if it's been brought up here but look at cam's comp percentage last season when they started running the offense through mcaff.  from 59 percent to 67 percent cause they ran 10 screens a game to mcaff who catches like 90 percent of them.  we need to to get a rb with that ability and scheme more of those and you'll see allen's numbers look better.  rb is right up there with wr as far as need in the draft or free agency for me.

 

There are a lot of factors that go into completion % and shorter throws (screens, dump offs, etc.) is certainly one. Allen is currently 5th in intended air yards per attempt (AY/A), whereas Newton was 28th in AY/A last season.

 

Allen has certainly been inaccurate at times, missing on what should have been an easy completions. However, some other factors contributing to his inaccuracy include (but not all inclusive):

 

Percentage of plays in which the ball is thrown away (Allen is 3rd)
Percentage of plays in which the ball is spiked (Allen is 6th)
Percentage of plays in which the pass is dropped by a receiver (Allen is 1st)
Percentage of plays in which the ball is tipped/ batted (Allen is 15th)
Distance of throw per attempt (Allen is 5th)
Percentage of passing plays blitzed/pressured (Allen is 2nd)

Amount of time between snap and pressure on passing downs (Allen is tied for 1st)
Small amount of separation by receivers at catch (Allen is 10th in least amount of sep by rec at catch)

 

Allen's average ranking in just those 8 areas is 5.88

 

Just as a reference, here are the other QB average rankings across those 8 areas:

 

 

Allen certainly has a lot of room for improvement; however, there are other areas of the team's play where improvement would help him as well.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

We don't win 9 games, we don't get in. 

Why is it so hard for peoples to give TT his propers?  I love me some Josh and 100% "in" that we moved on, but Taylor played a significant role in those wins.

Tyrod has his moments 

 

the playoff fiasco proved that he didn’t earn much.
 JMO

[TuelTime]

7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

???????????

 

I would LOVE to hear the justification for the idea that Tyrod or Fitz could easily have taken this team, with this OC and personnel, to the playoffs.

 

Honestly I can't wait to read that.

 

Tyrod took a worse team to the playoffs. In pretty much the same manner. Stout defense, strong run game, and conservative offensive play calling (less than 25 passes a game) with a QB who can pick up first downs with his legs. Don't get me wrong, I like Josh Allen, but so far I see an average QB. An average QB with potential, but I thought (and I wasn't alone) that Tyrod had potential as well.

 

My concern with Allen is that he is going to do just enough for the front office to keep him around like Tyrod and Fitz, while never taking the next step and becoming a true franchise QB. This team has the wins, but if we're being honest they are not because Allen has played "great". I want Allen to succeed, but I haven't seen anything that would stop me from drafting a mid-round QB this year.

 

Edited December 29, 2019 by TuelTime

[BringBackOrton]

9 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

???????????

 

I would LOVE to hear the justification for the idea that Tyrod or Fitz could easily have taken this team, with this OC and personnel, to the playoffs.

 

Honestly I can't wait to read that.

Fitz just beat the Pats with objectively worse personnel. He also went 5-8 with the worst defense in the NFL. He also has one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL.

 

Fitz is having a good year.