Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[JoPoy88]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

If you turn out to be wrong? You already are wrong based on your first 16 games to next 16 games theory. Allen has improved in his 11 starts after his first 16 starts already. And if Allen never improves another iota beyond his current 11, while somewhat disappointing, he's still reached that low level franchise QB benchmark like a Eli Manning, Stafford or Newton. But if he improves just a bit, which I guess you think he might, then he's definitely a legitimate franchise QB.

Zero also thought the Chiefs were going to go perfect 19-0 this year so I wouldn’t take him so seriously. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

Whether they quit is on them, but their success or lack impacts whether we take raincoats or make investments, ie their cred.  So your cred is low, based on recent predictions.

 

Quote

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....

 

Zerovoltz and again, not liking to throw terms like "troll" around, but this is highly disingenuous of you. 

 

You said:

"...some unpleasant things to consider....The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year......The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list..............something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on."

 

You said straight out you considered it highly probable that Josh Allen will be who he is now as a QB with just minor improvement for the rest of his career.

 

To caveat that with "it's not certain, but probable" is sophistry.  We all know the saw "nothing is certain but death and taxes", nevertheless when a man says "it is probable", he is generally (and rightly) held to be saying what he believes.

 

Just Own It.  That's what you believe.  Don't come here, say it, then when called on it, Backtrack and Weasel Word.  If you want respect here, Own Your Words.

 

You also said: "The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020."  We all know that as Allen goes, so go the Bills...and I also believe that's where you were going with your "list of QB's that the Bills have defeated is a really bad list".  You're strongly implying that when the Bills play a stronger schedule with better QBs next year, the Bills offense and Allen won't have the firepower to keep up.  Again, just Own Your Words and the meaning behind them. 

 

Don't Post and Weasel.

 

Quote

I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen? 

 

See above.  Again, if you want respect here, Earn it - own what you said and what you strongly implied.  You acknowledged the possibility that Allen may continue to develop by saying "it's not certain" he won't develop, but you framed it as "it is probable" that he won't. 

 

[LSHMEAB]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Don't Post and Weasel.

 

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

[Patrick Duffy]

38 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

 

It always has been from the start IMO.

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Direct quote from you...

 

8 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

......I did not say ALL QB.....are done....I then brought up examples of guys...who like Allen....made dramatic improvements after their first 16.  I didn't say he was done developing....I said he could be an exception....Not sure what you think I should have said?  That it's a foregone conclusion that given his current trajectory, Allen will be the ulitmate QB ever in 5 more starts?  That he's already the best?  What am I missing here?

 

Your statement was that most QBs are what they were for their first 16 games.

 

Allen's already pretty clearly improved immensely from his first 16 games.

 

Are you implying where he is right now is the outlier and he's going to regress back to what he was for his first 16 games?

 

Or that his significant improvement after the first 16 games is the most he will likely improve?

 

The 2nd here seems to be what you're saying based off the quote above... even though Allen's already proven the outlier of your study. Both of those arguments seem ridiculous. Maybe you did a comprehensive study of all QBs and those were your findings, but even if you did, Allen is already proving to be an exception to your rule with the amount he's improved after 16 games, so bringing up that analysis serves no purpose whatsoever in the context of discussing Allen unless your purpose is to troll the fans of a rival team.

Edited December 28, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen?  I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here...

 

No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history.  If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything.  

 

You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

 

Again... even here you're acknowledging Allen has been an outlier much of his life and practically admitting (begrudgingly it seems) that he's pretty likely an outlier in the case of your study--which he already pretty much is given his significant improvement after your benchmark of his first 16 games--so why even bother bringing the study up at all if it's irrelevant to Allen, the subject of this thread?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

And the wheels on the bus go round and round round and round 

 

or

 

this is the song that never ends 

 

 

just a thought ? 

 

who was the guy who said threads over 50 pages were too long to read?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

 

TBH all the stuff where people make sweeping pronouncements, good and bad, kind of grates on me - whether it's "Baby Superman" or "Allen sucks"

 

I'm not even Hopeful again yet (joke), but the thing that encourages me most is what people around him say.  Yeah, yeah, I know, no one is gonna throw their teammate under the bus.  It just sounds different from these guys sometimes.  Example.  17 Weeks Uninterrupted with Cole Beasley. They're talking about resting vs playing for the playoffs and Cole is talking back and forth about each way (about 20 min in)....then he says kind of quietly "If Josh is out there, I want to be out there with him". 

 

That just sounded as though it came from the heart. 

 

And yeah, I know that good teammates aren't going to throw their QB under the bus, but these guys just seem to offer up too much when they don't have to for it not to be genuine.

[LB3]

On 12/27/2019 at 12:05 AM, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

You're literally a clickbait poster. Your predictions are shitey and you're way too full of yourself. You're essentially Max Kellerman. 

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH all the stuff where people make sweeping pronouncements, good and bad, kind of grates on me - whether it's "Baby Superman" or "Allen sucks"

 

I'm not even Hopeful again yet (joke), but the thing that encourages me most is what people around him say.  Yeah, yeah, I know, no one is gonna throw their teammate under the bus.  It just sounds different from these guys sometimes.  Example.  17 Weeks Uninterrupted with Cole Beasley. They're talking about resting vs playing for the playoffs and Cole is talking back and forth about each way (about 20 min in)....then he says "If Josh is out there, I want to be out there with him". 

 

That just sounded as though it came from the heart. 

 

And yeah, I know that good teammates aren't going to throw their QB under the bus, but these guys just seem to offer up too much when they don't have to for it not to be genuine.

I fully believe his teammates love him. The comments always come across as genuine. Beasley said something along the lines of going to war with Allen, etc after the Dallas game. He's a football player to quote Romo. Nothing a team respects more than a QB willing to put himself on the line for the team. And there doesn't appear to be anything to dislike personally.(As well as we can know a guy we've never spent time with.)

 

Not sure what it means in the grand scheme of things, but there's zero doubt in my mind the team is 100% on board. I'm sure the receivers get frustrated on occasion by some of the errant throws, but it's minor.

 

We'll see what happens long term, but it's certainly a good sign. NOW; all that goodwill won't mean much if he doesn't progress, but he's got a locker room full of guys in his corner.

[VW82]

On 12/26/2019 at 7:16 PM, K-Apps said:

I tend to agree with this take, Allen’s footwork and lack of quickly progressing coverage and manipulating matchups will be things to watch if can take that next jump as a QB.

 

This article is somewhat concerning to say the least. Lots of criticism of Josh's footwork and poor anticipation with accompanying video evidence but here are some of the other money quotes for those too lazy to click the link.

 

On taking too many sacks:

 

Quote

The Bills rank 24th in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders, while the offensive line ranks fifth in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric. The offensive line is doing its job, but you wouldn’t know by looking at Allen’s sack totals.

 

On accuracy:

 

Quote

But the most concerning issue for Allen is, of course, his accuracy. He ranks dead last in completion percentage. Now, completion percentage isn’t the best measure for accuracy as it doesn’t account for drops (the Bills receivers have dropped more passes than all but two teams) or how far downfield a quarterback is throwing, but Allen also ranks poorly in the accuracy metrics that do. He ranks 32nd in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. Only four quarterbacks have a lower “completion percentage over expectation” — David Blough, Dwayne Haskins, Gardner Minshew and Jared Goff — per Next Gen Stats.

 

Quote

Allen has, however, improved in the intermediate range, where he’s completing passes at a rate higher than the league average...But everywhere else on the field, Allen’s accuracy has been scattershot. His deep-ball accuracy has been particularly bad and has cost the Bills some big plays in recent weeks. Allen ranks 27th on throws over 10 yards, per Sports Info Solutions.

 

On Allen's improvement in the turnover department:

 

Quote

Even Allen’s improvement in the turnover department appears to be flukey. Yes, Allen has turned the ball over only four times (two interceptions and two fumbles lost) in the last 10 weeks, but only two players in the entire NFL have fumbled more often over that time — Buffalo has just recovered seven of his nine fumbles. And, according to Sports Info Solutions, defenders have dropped five would-be interceptions thrown by Allen since Week 10 alone. Allen hasn’t really protected the ball any better. He’s just been luckier.

 

On the validity of the game winning drives stat:

 

Quote

How about that game-winning drive stat I cited earlier? Well, that’s not nearly as impressive as you probably think. Here are some other notable quarterbacks who have led the league in game-winning drives in recent years: Geno Smith (2013), Blake Bortles (2015), Marcus Mariota (2017). It’s a fun stat, but it means very little.

 

There's much more in the link. The article reads like it was from someone responding to all the pro Allen comments on TBD. It's a bit of a one-sided hit job but the writer makes a lot of good points (unfortunately for us). 

[LB3]

16 hours ago, Augie said:

Who, exactly,  do you expect is going to make it that far?  We are a bunch of pudgy couch potatoes, not a bunch of marathon runners from Ethiopia! 

This is just a great post. From its accuracy to its humor. I got to point 5 and saw a wall of text and scrolled to this gem. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

And the wheels on the bus go round and round round and round 

 

or

 

this is the song that never ends 

 

 

just a thought ? 

 

who was the guy who said threads over 50 pages were too long to read?

 

 

You are always welcome to ignore threads or choose to not post in them. 

 

just a thought 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, VW82 said:

This article is somewhat concerning to say the least. Lots of criticism of Josh's footwork and poor anticipation with accompanying video evidence but here are some of the other money quotes for those too lazy to click the link.

 

Wow.  Just.....Wow.  Listen to you: "money quotes for those too lazy to click the link"

Money quotes.

Not for those who aren't interested in the guys take, or aren't motivated to read "yet another analytics dude thinks Allen sucks 'cuz Numbers"

"For those two lazy to click the link"

 

I don't say this often, and I don't say this lightly, but please: Get Over Yourself.

 

25 minutes ago, VW82 said:

(.....)

There's much more in the link. The article reads like it was from someone responding to all the pro Allen comments on TBD. It's a bit of a one-sided hit job but the writer makes a lot of good points (unfortunately for us). 

 

It may have good points, it may not have good points.  A bunch of its points seem strange to me - why are we concerned about fumbles in the last 10 weeks?  Why not 8 weeks?  Or 6 weeks? 

 

But fundamentally, I'm at "Behold the field Wherein I Grow my ***** and Lo, how it is Barren" where the analytics crowd is concerned and have no interest in pursuing their takes at this point.

 

Josh Allen has always been a test case for the efficacy of eyeball, boots-on-the-ground scouting vs analytics.  That hasn't changed. 

 

I don't think anybody, including Josh Allen or Brian Daboll or Sean McDermott, think that he has arrived at an acceptable level of professional NFL QBing.

I think that the people who work with him, day in and day out, see marked improvement. 

 

Until we see if he takes a step (and it won't be until next season at this point, if we see it), everything else is just wasting electrons.

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

This article is somewhat concerning to say the least. Lots of criticism of Josh's footwork and poor anticipation with accompanying video evidence but here are some of the other money quotes for those too lazy to click the link.

 

There's much more in the link. The article reads like it was from someone responding to all the pro Allen comments on TBD. It's a bit of a one-sided hit job but the writer makes a lot of good points (unfortunately for us). 

 

This article is full of cherry picked stats and superficial analyses.

 

Let's just take the accuracy issue. He states completion % isn’t the best measure for accuracy; however, it was the very first thing he used anyway (and continued to use). He then goes on to say Allen also ranks poorly in the accuracy metrics that measure accuracy and only lists one: On target %, which he simply states, "Allen ranks poorly." Allen ranks 22nd (19th for QBs with at least 200 attempts for the season) in on target %.

 

Clearly there are throws that Allen has missed. But, here are some stats he failed to mention that also might affect Allen' accuracy:

 

#1 in percentage of plays in which the ball is thrown away, spiked, dropped by a receiver, or tipped/ batted at 15.7%

#5 in distance of throw per attempt

#1 in percentage of passes dropped at 7.2%

#2 in being blitzed (43% of pass plays)

#1 (tied) for the smallest amount of time, when blitzed, between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds

 

There are more; but, I think the point is made. 

 

Allen certainly has a lot of room to grow; however, this article felt like someone who made up his mind about Allen and went looking for evidence to support it.

Edited December 28, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Billy Claude]

The #1 in being blitz means that the league does not believe Allen makes decisions quickly enough and would support the negative tone of the original article.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

41 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

The #1 in being blitz means that the league does not believe Allen makes decisions quickly enough and would support the negative tone of the original article.

 

 

 

Actually I was wrong. Allen is #2 in being blitzed. I corrected my post. Russell Wilson is #1 in being blitzed, so, I guess the league doesn't believe he can make decisions quickly enough either....

[Billy Claude]

I do find the league blitzing Russell Wilson surprising but there is no doubt that you blitz qbs that you don`t think can beat the blitz.  That`s why the standard thing one does against rookies is to blitz them and I am pretty sure that's why they blitz Allen.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

I do find the league blitzing Russell Wilson surprising but there is no doubt that you blitz qbs that you don`t think can beat the blitz.  That`s why the standard thing one does against rookies is to blitz them and I am pretty sure that's why they blitz Allen.

 

You also blitz teams when you don't believe that their WRs can gain separation within 2-3 seconds.

[Billy Claude]

Maybe but I thought that was what Beasley I'd good at.