Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Counter point:

 

Allen vultures TD’s from our RBs which is why his TD% contribution to the offense is so high. Bills RB’s tie for 58th in the NFL in rushing TD’s. 

 

Worth discussing. My take on that is simply to look at why he ends up getting those goal line touches.

 

Examples like the repeated stuffing of RBs against NE, Washington, and Cleveland in goal line scenarios are a big part of it. The ease with which Allen tends to walk in against even tough defenses is another.

[CincyBillsFan]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Counter point:

 

Allen vultures TD’s from our RBs which is why his TD% contribution to the offense is so high. Bills RB’s tie for 58th in the NFL in rushing TD’s. 

 

I believe the only 1st down TD run at the goal line by Allen was against the Steelers.  I do recall handing off to a RB 3 straight times against NE in game 1 only to get stuffed.  Allen then scored on a 4th down sneak.  I don't know about you but when we end up inside the 5 yard line I figure Allen is our best bet to score. 

 

Your point is good but IMO you're coming to the wrong conclusion.  It seems to me that our RB's aren't very good close to the end zone.  We don't have big RB's and Singleterry is not a thumper between the tackles.  Gore is a savvy runner and if there's a hole he'll find it but he's past the point in his career where he creates the hole.

 

I could also throw out that I don't hear folks questioning all those Lamer Jackson TD runs near the goal line.  Nor do I hear folks question all those short Jackson TD passes near the goal line in spite of having a stud a RB#1 and a very good RB#2?

 

Sure Allen's ridiculously high % of TD's scored in the Bills offense is an artifact of where the offense is today.  But that shows me that Allen elevates this offense and that we need more pieces around him before the Bills can be more productive on offense.

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

 

Fair points.  My response:

 

*  Some teams on the rise do follow your path (good - poor - good) but many don't.  For all we know this year was the slump year.  Each team & set of circumstances is different.

 

*  I don't follow the Bears like I follow the Bills so I can't say why they regressed this year.  But it seemed odd that folks were putting it all on Turbisky.  Then I watch the KC/Bears game the other day and find out that the Bears lost all 3 of their TE's from the previous season.  No wonder their QB has struggled.  I also wasn't overwhelmed by the Bears D in the games I saw this year.  Seems to me that this may be a better explanation of the slide then Turbisky sucks.

 

*  You may be right about Allen having plateaued.  But that's not what I'm seeing.  Allen's history at QB is different then most other NFL players and he truly is a project.  His development will also be different.  So far he seems ahead of schedule to me.

 

*  Looking at Allen's first 16 games as a starter which would include 11 games from last season & the first 5 games from this season and comparing them to his last 10 games he's shown significant improvement. There is ZERO evidence that he's anywhere near a plateau.

 

*  Since the BIlls are going on the road for their playoff game they could very well lose it.  IMO the Bill's are underdogs to whoever they play in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

 

The Bills will beat the Chiefs, at Arrowhead, if the two meet in January.

[Gugny]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

........something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Let's see your data to back this up.  I call complete and absolute BS and I refuse to do your homework for you.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Worth discussing. My take on that is simply to look at why he ends up getting those goal line touches.

 

Examples like the repeated stuffing of RBs against NE, Washington, and Cleveland in goal line scenarios are a big part of it. The ease with which Allen tends to walk in against even tough defenses is another.

exactly. he's the best short yardage runner we have... if anything it should go in the "plus" column for Allen.

[Stank_Nasty]

11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

Translation.... I was really wrong about the bills(and a ton of other stuff). so now i'm gonna try and maneuver away from being dead wrong by moving the goal posts and explain it all away.

 

and the bills defensive metrics have been sustained now for 2 seasons. there's nothing flukey about it. the only difference is the offense isn't top 5 in giveaways this year and so our defensive points allowed isn't completely skewed(like last year) by dealing 30+ turnovers. 

[Logic]

11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

You really are a piece of work. 

You pretty much ONLY ever show up to talk about Josh Allen, and it is ALWAYS a negative slant. To wit: Your post begins with the words "some unpleasant things to consider"...

You then attempt to make your point about Allen by discussing opposing QUARTERBACKS the Bills have faced, as if that has ANYTHING to do with Josh Allen. Wouldn't it be 1000% more meaningful and logical to discuss the DEFENSES Josh Allen has faced? To point out that he has faced six top 12 defenses this season? To discuss the progress he's made, like, oh I dunno....improvements in: 

 

Comp%

Passer rtg

Pass yards p/g

Pass TDs p/g

Total yards p/g

Total TDs p/g

Yards p/att

On target%

Throwaway%

Adj comp%

xComp%

DYAR

DVOA

Or how about his having 6 TDs and  6 INTs / 2 fum in his first four games, and then scoring 23 TDs and having just 3 INTs / 2 fum lost in his next ELEVEN games?!

 

But nahhhh, you'd rather talk about the opposing QUARTERBACKS he's faced?  Garbage. Useless nonsense.

To top it all off, you end with "the Bills are likely to lose a playoff game and regress next year". REALLY, bro?

As always, you present yourself as a friendly, harmless guy who "just wants to talk ball". As always, you only show up when the discussion turns to Josh Allen, and you only offer negativity. You offer no compelling discussion or analysis, just new ways to trot out the same doubt and pessimism when it comes to the Bills' QB. Your obsession with tracking his career and making sure he's no good just so that you can continue to puff your chest over the fact that the Bills traded the Mahomes pick to the Chiefs is borderline bizarre. We get it: the Bills could've had Mahomes, but your Chiefs got him instead. Get over it, move on, live your life. Enjoy your OWN team's success instead of constantly coming to a Bills forum to find new and subtle ways to point to the fact that your Chiefs are brilliant and the Bills are fools.

Seriously, though: You're the worst.

By the way, how'd that 16-0 prediction turn out, bud?

Edited December 27, 2019 by Logic

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

You really are a piece of work. 

You pretty much ONLY ever show up to talk about Josh Allen, and it is ALWAYS a negative slant. To wit: Your post begins with the words "some unpleasant things to consider"...

You then attempt to make your point about Allen by discussing opposing QUARTERBACKS the Bills have faced, as if that has ANYTHING to do with Josh Allen. Wouldn't it be 1000% more meaningful and logical to discuss the DEFENSES Josh Allen has faced? To point out that he has faced six top 12 defenses this season? To discuss the progress he's made, like, oh I dunno....improvements in: 

 

Comp%

Passer rtg

Pass yards p/g

Pass TDs p/g

Total yards p/g

Total TDs p/g

Yards p/att

On target%

Throwaway%

Adj comp%

xComp%

DYAR

DVOA

Or how about his having 6 TDs and  6 INTs / 2 fum in his first four games, and then scoring 23 TDs and having just 3 INTs / 2 fum lost in his next ELEVEN games?!

 

But nahhhh, you'd rather talk about the opposing QUARTERBACKS he's faced?  Garbage. Useless nonsense.

To top it all off, you end with "the Bills are likely to lose a playoff game and regress next year". REALLY, bro?

As always, you present yourself as a friendly, harmless guy who "just wants to talk ball". As always, you only show up when the discussion turns to Josh Allen, and you only offer negativity. You offer no compelling discussion or analysis, just new ways to trot out the same doubt and pessimism when it comes to the Bills' QB. Your obsession with tracking his career and making sure he's no good just so that you can continue to puff your chest over the fact that the Bills traded the Mahomes pick to the Chiefs is borderline bizarre. We get it: the Bills could've had Mahomes, but your Chiefs got him instead. Get over it, move on, live your life. Enjoy your OWN team's success instead of constantly coming to a Bills forum to find new and subtle ways to point to the fact that your Chiefs are brilliant and the Bills are fools.

Seriously, though: You're the worst.

By the way, how'd that 16-0 prediction turn out, bud?

Insecure Chefs fans. It’s a real thing. Word is they were more interested in lighting up the Bears over of the Trubisky/Mahomes thing than anything else. 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Insecure Chefs fans. It’s a real thing. Word is they were more interested in lighting up the Bears over of the Trubisky/Mahomes thing than anything else. 

Mahomes is the real deal.  But it doesn't matter, because Andy Reid will figure out yet another way to mess his team up so they don't win in the playoffs.

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Insecure Chefs fans. It’s a real thing. Word is they were more interested in lighting up the Bears over of the Trubisky/Mahomes thing than anything else. 

You don't say? Zero should probably just change the below picture to his avatar for this message board, since it's his only reason for coming here.

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

You don't say? Zero should probably just change the below picture to his avatar for this message board, since it's his only reason for coming here.

This pic is as much a slap in the face to Bills fans as it is Bears fans imo...

Edited December 27, 2019 by JaCrispy

[atlbillsfan1975]

Anyone who mentions Tyrod and his career year should look at what that says about Greg Roman, not Tyrod. 
Let’s see how Allen looks after 4 years in the league. 

[Mango]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Counter point:

 

Allen vultures TD’s from our RBs which is why his TD% contribution to the offense is so high. Bills RB’s tie for 58th in the NFL in rushing TD’s. 

 

 I wouldn't say vultures or snipes. 

 

Rather Allen leads a team in scoring that doesn't score enough points. We rank 19th in Rushing TD's and 18th in Passing TD's. We need to do better at scoring TD's both through the air and on the ground. A lot of that needs to come from better play from Allen, especially with his arm. 

[JaCrispy]

Madly Glab has the sexiest voice on radio...just throwing it out there...?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Counter point:

 

Allen vultures TD’s from our RBs which is why his TD% contribution to the offense is so high. Bills RB’s tie for 58th in the NFL in rushing TD’s. 

 

Because of course, Gore has been just fantastic at punching it in from the goal line?  ?

Oh, wait.....

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

First off he's 1-4. The other loss was to Baker who does not have a higher QB rating. Baker does have a higher QBR than Allen, but then so does Fitzpatrick which would mean the Bills and Allen have 3 wins against teams with a QB with a higher QBR instead of 1. Not sure which metric you are going by. 

 

I do think you bring up some things to consider but overall I am not worried that we have a Mitch Turbitzky or Mark Sanchez situation on our hands. I am encouraged by what I have seen from Allen and yeah, he's not even lighting it up statistically so it's not a huge leap of faith to think he can't duplicate a 85 QB rating season next year or even better it with an 88 or 90. I'm not sure what his actual splits are but I would venture to guess that in his last 9 games he has a 90 something QB rating which is just another measure of consistent improvement out of Allen that we have seen since his rookie year. And that's against some of the better defenses and on the road during that 9 game stretch. 

 

The Bills defense is playing well but in terms of metrics that can often not be sustainable from season to season, they are only 9th overall with 22 Takeaways. They are not at an unsustainable pace like the Patriots or Steelers this year each tied for first with 36 takeaways. The Bears led the league last year with 36. As you mentioned not sustainable. They haven't scored a single defensive TD this year. And only one lone special teams TD when the game was all but over against Miami. Bills do have a top 3 defensive unit overall but that is for two years running now. It's a more sustainable metric than leading the league in takeaways or turnover differential. Not unreasonable to think they will have a top 8-10 unit next season.

 

 

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Mahomes is the real deal.  But it doesn't matter, because Andy Reid will figure out yet another way to mess his team up so they don't win in the playoffs.

 

That's what I'm wondering too. Mahomes might be Marino. And Allen will be Kelly. Or maybe Mahomes is Peyton and Allen is Brady if we want to give each player some super bowl success.

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

 

But in Josh Allen's first 16 games he averaged 186 YPG. 

 

In his last 11 he's averaged 198.

 

In his first 16 games he threw 13 TDs to 18 INTs.

 

In his last 11 he threw 17 TDs to 3 INTs.

 

In his first 16 games he had a passer rating of 68.4.

 

In his last 11 he has a passer rating of 92.1.

 

And do I need to bring up AGAIN the defenses the Bills have faced in the last 11 games? 

 

Look it up... not hard to see...

 

poor argument with regards to Allen.

[LSHMEAB]

10 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Worth discussing. My take on that is simply to look at why he ends up getting those goal line touches.

 

Examples like the repeated stuffing of RBs against NE, Washington, and Cleveland in goal line scenarios are a big part of it. The ease with which Allen tends to walk in against even tough defenses is another.

The OL has not demonstrated the ability to move the LOS and that is apparent. While the stat that he's scored X percentage of the teams TD's is skewed by his rushing TD's, it also reveals the problem the run game has in gaining short yardage. Not sure about the solution, but the OL needs to be reshuffled a bit and also needs a mauler at one of the G spots whether that be Ford or an additional player. They also need to add a back capable of gaining a couple yards when there's "nothing there."

[FireChans]

9 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I believe the only 1st down TD run at the goal line by Allen was against the Steelers.  I do recall handing off to a RB 3 straight times against NE in game 1 only to get stuffed.  Allen then scored on a 4th down sneak.  I don't know about you but when we end up inside the 5 yard line I figure Allen is our best bet to score. 

 

Your point is good but IMO you're coming to the wrong conclusion.  It seems to me that our RB's aren't very good close to the end zone.  We don't have big RB's and Singleterry is not a thumper between the tackles.  Gore is a savvy runner and if there's a hole he'll find it but he's past the point in his career where he creates the hole.

 

I could also throw out that I don't hear folks questioning all those Lamer Jackson TD runs near the goal line.  Nor do I hear folks question all those short Jackson TD passes near the goal line in spite of having a stud a RB#1 and a very good RB#2?

 

Sure Allen's ridiculously high % of TD's scored in the Bills offense is an artifact of where the offense is today.  But that shows me that Allen elevates this offense and that we need more pieces around him before the Bills can be more productive on offense.

 

 

 

 

They don’t question LJ’s runs and short passes because Mark Ingram has 10 rushing TD’s.