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Posted
20 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

Cian Fahey hates Josh Allen because he loved Tyrod. He is also probably the biggest joke in the football analyst business. 

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Posted
22 hours ago, pop gun said:

Cian is a hack, terrible at his job!

I agree with everything except the bolded, he is the franchise guy, it's really not debatable at this point. Beane and Mcd are not going to invest, 2 let alone 5 or 6 years on Allen if he isn't the franchise going forward.  

 

I'm pretty close to agreeing with you that Allen is the guy.  Let's just say if he fails to continue improving over the next couple of years I'll be very surprised. 

 

Bottom line is I think he's the guy but he still has to demonstrate it over the next 2 years.

 

 

Posted

This team is going to start dominating the league in the next year or two.  Allen is going to be at the forefront of that.  You guys are watching a dominating franchise QB grow right in front of your eyes.

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Posted
3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'm pretty close to agreeing with you that Allen is the guy.  Let's just say if he fails to continue improving over the next couple of years I'll be very surprised. 

 

Bottom line is I think he's the guy but he still has to demonstrate it over the next 2 years.

 

 

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

Posted
6 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

This is why I don't understand those that seem to be rooting against Allen.  At least it looks to me like that's what they're doing.

 

This is the dilemma facing every team with a young, potential franchise QB.  They have to make a bet early in their career whether they're the guy of not and then build an offense around them.  And I agree that the Bill's brain trust, which has seen Allen up close a lot more then we have, believe he is the guy.  And I also think that based on what I've seen he's the guy. But the risk is that if he isn't the Bills are SCREWED big time. 

 

As you note the last thing anybody wants to do is start over at QB.  That's why I struggle to wrap my head around some of the posters who are so damn negative.  They seem almost gleeful when Allen struggles.  Don't they understand what a disaster it would be if Allen stopped improving?

 

 

 

 

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Posted
11 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

Yeah...plenty of teams have shown that's not how the league works, not even close. And one of the top guys? He hasn't even proven to be a consistent starter, let alone a franchise guy. Not one true franchise QB consistently plays like he does. Find me the one other franchise QB that cannot throw for 300 yards even once. You'll say it's not important, but it's a result of being a successful QB more often than not, and it's a bar franchise QB's hit quite often (as opposed to absolutely never).

 

Franchise QB's also don't consistently disappear for large stretches of games, and just like last year, Allen holds onto the ball longer than any QB in the entire league, just as he has the worst accuracy when throwing the ball 20 yards+ in the air in the league for the 2nd straight season. He's still a sub-60% passer, and still takes too many sacks that are his fault. 

Franchise QB's need to be able to shoulder the offensive burden and for an entire game when the defense or run game isn't there. They need to be able to put fear into a team's defense, not inspire confidence in opposing defenses that they can play tight man to man and stack the box every game. If an opponent's biggest and only real worry is how to contain runs," that's not a great sign...especially since defenses have figured out how to contain him better (last year he ran for 120 more yards on 20 less carries & 3 less games while running for only 1 less TD.

What more does he have to demonstrate? Quite a lot actually. Being able to win games that the defense isn't completely dominating or overcompensating for your weaknesses would be one thing... Or being able to completely dominate the league's worst teams instead of barely skating by with come from behind victories? Hit wide open WR's more frequently... We would've won the Baltimore game if he didn't miss so many targets that had their man flat out beat in the 1st half. Those 2 nice passes he threw against the Pats last week? Yeah, he should've had several of those against Baltimore. 

And being able to identify open targets by progressing through his reads (which to be fair, he sometimes manages to do pretty well), hang on to the ball better (just because he only lost a handful of fumbles, we've been EXTREMELY fortunate considering the sheer volume of fumbles he's actually had!) and not stalling out drives the moment we stop rushing the ball. Also, being able to take advantage of the turnovers & great field position the defense constantly sets us up with would makes us 100x more dangerous. Instead, we frequently go 3 & out or barely manage field goals, rarely punishing opponents for turnovers. 

There's a LOT I'd like to still see, so hopefully I can be one of those fans that isn't biting my nails, heart racing every drive not sure if he's going to make some game killing mistake, waste a drive or barely avoid a sack & run for a 1st down. I want to sit down & know that whatever my team does, win or lose, the QB isn't dragging everybody else's great performance down. You never feel that way watching a Chiefs or Ravens game. If the games are close, you can almost feel that it's just a matter of time before their offenses figure it out & put up more points. The Bills on the other hand, you're more likely to see them do nothing right out of half time, and maybe at some point they'll wake up in the 4th, get a few drives extended by penalties & maybe make it interesting.

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Posted
12 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

 

Of course they might kick him to the curb in year five.

 

It really is simple. It'll depend on his play. There absolutely is two more years to prove himself with growth if they think he's got to show more. "What more does he have to demonstrate?" you ask. Jeez, everything, or at least the important things. Our offense has been poor and a lot of that rests on Allen. He's got to show he's a franchise QB and he hasn't done that yet.

 

He is improving, though. IMO the signs are good. But he is by no means a top QB at this time. He's a guy who's shown that he maybe has a possibility of being a top QB with time.

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Posted
5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Yeah...plenty of teams have shown that's not how the league works, not even close. And one of the top guys? He hasn't even proven to be a consistent starter, let alone a franchise guy. Not one true franchise QB consistently plays like he does. Find me the one other franchise QB that cannot throw for 300 yards even once. You'll say it's not important, but it's a result of being a successful QB more often than not, and it's a bar franchise QB's hit quite often (as opposed to absolutely never).

 

Franchise QB's also don't consistently disappear for large stretches of games, and just like last year, Allen holds onto the ball longer than any QB in the entire league, just as he has the worst accuracy when throwing the ball 20 yards+ in the air in the league for the 2nd straight season. He's still a sub-60% passer, and still takes too many sacks that are his fault. 

Franchise QB's need to be able to shoulder the offensive burden and for an entire game when the defense or run game isn't there. They need to be able to put fear into a team's defense, not inspire confidence in opposing defenses that they can play tight man to man and stack the box every game. If an opponent's biggest and only real worry is how to contain runs," that's not a great sign...especially since defenses have figured out how to contain him better (last year he ran for 120 more yards on 20 less carries & 3 less games while running for only 1 less TD.

What more does he have to demonstrate? Quite a lot actually. Being able to win games that the defense isn't completely dominating or overcompensating for your weaknesses would be one thing... Or being able to completely dominate the league's worst teams instead of barely skating by with come from behind victories? Hit wide open WR's more frequently... We would've won the Baltimore game if he didn't miss so many targets that had their man flat out beat in the 1st half. Those 2 nice passes he threw against the Pats last week? Yeah, he should've had several of those against Baltimore. 

And being able to identify open targets by progressing through his reads (which to be fair, he sometimes manages to do pretty well), hang on to the ball better (just because he only lost a handful of fumbles, we've been EXTREMELY fortunate considering the sheer volume of fumbles he's actually had!) and not stalling out drives the moment we stop rushing the ball. Also, being able to take advantage of the turnovers & great field position the defense constantly sets us up with would makes us 100x more dangerous. Instead, we frequently go 3 & out or barely manage field goals, rarely punishing opponents for turnovers. 

There's a LOT I'd like to still see, so hopefully I can be one of those fans that isn't biting my nails, heart racing every drive not sure if he's going to make some game killing mistake, waste a drive or barely avoid a sack & run for a 1st down. I want to sit down & know that whatever my team does, win or lose, the QB isn't dragging everybody else's great performance down. You never feel that way watching a Chiefs or Ravens game. If the games are close, you can almost feel that it's just a matter of time before their offenses figure it out & put up more points. The Bills on the other hand, you're more likely to see them do nothing right out of half time, and maybe at some point they'll wake up in the 4th, get a few drives extended by penalties & maybe make it interesting.

 

The QB, who has scored 29 of the team's 35 TDs this year, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, whose top 2 WRs are both having career seasons despite playing in the most complex offense they've ever seen, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, who has the most 4th quarter comebacks and is among the highest rated 4th quarter passers in the NFL, is dragging everybody else down?

 

I can't take the rest of this post even remotely serious in light of that one absurd statement.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The QB, who has scored 29 of the team's 35 TDs this year, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, whose top 2 WRs are both having career seasons despite playing in the most complex offense they've ever seen, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, who has the most 4th quarter comebacks and is among the highest rated 4th quarter passers in the NFL, is dragging everybody else down?

 

I can't take the rest of this post even remotely serious in light of that one absurd statement.

 

This is Dingus you're talking to. It's not like he's a prime example of logic and cogent thought.

 

 

Posted

There is a common misconception on this board that a second year QB should be done progressing and improving.  That's just misguided at best.  Having a young QB in year two be all that he will ever be is rare.  For every Mahomes you see, there are a dozen who have not reached full potential yet, or that catch fire the first year or two and then regress. 

 

If you are going to throw Allen out already, then you are going to throw out Mayfield and Darnold, because they struggle at times as well.  You would have thrown out a guy like Kelly back in the day.  Or Favre.  Or Aikman.  Or a whole lot of QB's that went on to become good to great. 

 

In evaluating Allen, what you want to ask is whether he is showing progression.  And he is; no objective appraisal of the kid would say otherwise.  His completion percentage is up over last year for those who obsess on that.  He is throwing a lot less picks than last year.  He is cutting own on the really stupid, throw back across the field throws (my personal issue I had with him; can't say how many times I screamed at the TV Don't throw that pass!!).   But he has improvements to make.  He needs to be more precise in throwing; get the ball to a precise spot that allows more YAC.  He still needs to improve on pre-snap recognition and getting the ball out quicker on hot reads (although some of that is designing plays to give him the hot read).  He needs to protect the ball more when he runs and cut down on fumbles.  He needs to continue improving reading coverages.  All things that one would expect in second year guys.

 

What the ongoing conversations on Allen reflect is the difference between eating at the McDonald's drive through, and eating at, say, Salvatore's.  Those who are more negative about Allen are the McDonald's types; they want their food, they want it right now, and if they have to wait more than 5 minutes in the drive through line they start honking and gesturing and show their impatience.  It has to be the way they want it right now!  Those who are more advocates of Allen (like me) are the Salvatore's type.  We recognize it takes time to make a truly good meal, and we're willing to wait longer for the chefs to take their time and create a masterpiece. 

 

Watching this kid, and the way he performs in the fourth quarter especially, makes me think we have our guy.  I expect we'll be rooting for Allen for the next decade or more.  Will he become and all time great?  Maybe not.  Will he fail miserably?  Probably not.  But this board honestly needs to get away from the constant crap about saying there are those who say Allen cannot do anything wrong, or those who say Allen is a guaranteed star.  Neither is correct, and both completely misstate what the vast majority of people around here feel:  that he is a young QB with a whole lot of potential that we're watching develop.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is Dingus you're talking to. It's not like he's a prime example of logic and cogent thought.

 

 

 

Dingus made sense on Tyrod and EJ, he sounds pretty lost on Allen 

Posted (edited)

Up the thread I posted Drew Brees' numbers in his first four seasons and the leap he took from year three to four after having a pedestrian second year as a starter, below is Alex Smith. First Overall pick and for 5 seasons didn't do much of anything and missed a season due to shoulder injury until Jim Harbaugh came to town. Alex Smith played for Harbaugh for two years and amassed the stats at age 27 and 28 after being left for NFL road-kill:

2011 27 SFO QB 11 16 16 13-3-0 273 445 61.3 3144 17 3.8 5 1.1 145 56 7.1 7.3 11.5 196.5 90.7 53.0 44 263 5.89 6.13 9.0 5 5 13
2012 28 SFO QB 11 10 9 6-2-1 153 218 70.2 1737 13 6.0 5 2.3 87 55 8.0 8.1 11.4 173.7 104.1 65.1 24 137 6.61 6.76 9.9     7
 
Before people talk about not improving accuracy, take a look at his 50.9, 58.1, and 48.7% completion rates, which average out to: 52.57%.
 
Smith's next four years are as follows: 60.5, 59.6, 61.3, and 70.2% completion rate, with an average of: 62.9%. The final two years of these stats are Harbaugh years which eventually netted them a 2nd Round pick from KC where his completion percentage remained well above 60% for most of those years except his first. Again, the point here is players DO improve and coaching makes a huge difference. This year is the first year Allen has had a veritable, bonda fide QB coach in Ken Dorsey. There are bones to pick with Josh Allen's QB play, but they are FARRRR less than when he came in as a Rookie and they are NOT founded in lack of development. You can argue he should do "better" in certain areas and I don't believe a reasoned person would disagree, but to say he hasn't make significant strides in development toward becoming a truly great QB is nonsense and myopic at best, and stubbornly biased at worst. 
 
Presuming he continues his trajectory toward improvement, Josh Allen will be in the top 5 of most major categories for a QB by this time next year and if he continues to work hard and the Bills put good receivers, blockers, and runners alongside him - he will go down as one of the greats of our generation. There are many "ifs" in those statements, but the prognosis is strongly positive - and that's something to be excited about.
Edited by BigBuff423
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Posted
8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Of course they might kick him to the curb in year five.

 

It really is simple. It'll depend on his play. There absolutely is two more years to prove himself with growth if they think he's got to show more. "What more does he have to demonstrate?" you ask. Jeez, everything, or at least the important things. Our offense has been poor and a lot of that rests on Allen. He's got to show he's a franchise QB and he hasn't done that yet.

 

He is improving, though. IMO the signs are good. But he is by no means a top QB at this time. He's a guy who's shown that he maybe has a possibility of being a top QB with time.

So which guys are you taking over Allen? I'll give you Mahomes, Watson, Wilson. You taking Wentz? Goff? Prescott? Garoppolo? Cousins? Ryan? Winston? ect or are you more inclined to take equally unproven Jackson, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Murray, Jones, or do you just like Duck Hodges better also! Brady is 42, Brees is 40, Rivers is 38 and Rodgers is 36. So if you're not taking half the QB (16) over Allen, tell me again how he is not a top QB!

 

Whether you like it or not Allen is a top QB and yes he does still have a lot to learn which is even more exciting for his future and the Bills next 15 years, Allen isn't going anywhere for a long time!

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Posted
4 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is Dingus you're talking to. It's not like he's a prime example of logic and cogent thought.

 

 

 

Every time he posts, keep this thread in mind:

Then ask yourself if this is someone worth discussing football with?

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Of course they might kick him to the curb in year five.

 

It really is simple. It'll depend on his play. There absolutely is two more years to prove himself with growth if they think he's got to show more. "What more does he have to demonstrate?" you ask. Jeez, everything, or at least the important things. Our offense has been poor and a lot of that rests on Allen. He's got to show he's a franchise QB and he hasn't done that yet.

 

He is improving, though. IMO the signs are good. But he is by no means a top QB at this time. He's a guy who's shown that he maybe has a possibility of being a top QB with time.

 

Allen by no means needs to be a top QB right now.

 

He's just finishing his 2nd year... and in his 2nd season he helped the Bills lock up a playoff spot in week 15... something this team hasn't 2 1/2 decades.

 

I find it hard to believe that it's not so completely obvious to everyone the pretty conservative approach this coaching staff is taking with Allen.

 

I didn't think they would be this conservative, but it seems it's paying off in terms of Allen's development and it hasn't been detrimental to the team so far.

 

Allen's pretty much done what he's been asked to do more often than not this year, including protecting the football and leading his team to victory late in games when needed.

 

I actually think it's pretty unlikely Allen is "kicked to the curb in year 5," unless you believe McDermott is no longer our Head Coach and Beane is no longer our GM.

 

Allen is their guy... pretty obviously.

 

And if our Defense remains Elite, I think this slow walk for Allen will probably continue... seems the McDermott way.

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Posted

Their conservative approach is probably the reason for the 10-5 record but might also be holding him back.  Feels like they put Josh into a lot of 3rd and long situations and 4th quarter pressure cookers with the approach they take.  Anytime we did have early success we go into some strange prevent mode offense  Its really weird trying to figure this teams identity on offense sometimes  I guess if nothing else they have coached the crazy turnovers out of him

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Posted
10 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Their conservative approach is probably the reason for the 10-5 record but might also be holding him back.  Feels like they put Josh into a lot of 3rd and long situations and 4th quarter pressure cookers with the approach they take.  Anytime we did have early success we go into some strange prevent mode offense  Its really weird trying to figure this teams identity on offense sometimes  I guess if nothing else they have coached the crazy turnovers out of him

Getting rid of the reckless without muting the necessary swagger and edge is a complicated pedagogy. You can't really argue with a 10 - 5 season and evident progress (though to the usual suspects, it isn't evident, alas). Regardless, I do think Allen would progress even more if there were less "prevent mode offense" (nice term.) Adding playmakers will certainly help and I expect that to be a significant focus of the draft and free agency.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every time he posts, keep this thread in mind:

Then ask yourself if this is someone worth discussing football with?

 

And, did you actually read the content of the thread? What was wrong with my questioning? Please, do explain. Why aren't you pulling up all the Bills fans who said AFTER they saw both Allen & Mahomes play full year that they'd still take Allen? Or the all the Allen is an MVP candidate threads? 

Oh that's right, because you obviously aren't interested in logical conversation, and want an echo chamber to regurgitate what you already want to hear. But then again, you were a huge Tyrod fan too, sooo....

Edited by BigDingus
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The QB, who has scored 29 of the team's 35 TDs this year, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, whose top 2 WRs are both having career seasons despite playing in the most complex offense they've ever seen, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, who has the most 4th quarter comebacks and is among the highest rated 4th quarter passers in the NFL, is dragging everybody else down?

 

I can't take the rest of this post even remotely serious in light of that one absurd statement.

 

I'm going to preface what I'm about to say as "I DO NOT HATE JOSH ALLEN." Also, THIS IS NOT A CRUSADE AGAINST ALLEN, nor do I hope Allen fails. I'm rebutting your points, because as they stand, they're not much of points at all if we're going off logic, context and a COMPLETE PICTURE. I WANT ALLEN TO SUCCEED, DESPERATELY

 

You do realize the position he plays right? Please, tell me the team with a QB who started all games this season who isn't responsible for the large majority of their team's TD's this year... And when you are at short & goal, gee, I wonder if a QB run is easier for a big dude like Josh than handing it off? 

You're right, what a juggernaut this 24th ranked offense is. We're the 5th ranked rushing offense, but only the 24th offense overall. Hmmm, that leaves one area, I forget what it is, that might be dragging us down..... Can't remember....Oh yeah, PASSING! And who passes the ball? The QB again! Crazy, I know. We're the 27th ranked passing offense... CAREER YEAR everyone, can't get much better than this!

 

Oh wait, Tyrod lead a similar ranked offense his first year....28th ranked passing offense, 1st ranked rushing offense, and 13th ranked offense overall.

 

You know who had career years that year? Sammy Watkins had 1000+ yards & 9 TD's, and Robert Woods, Chris Hogan & Charles Clay averaged 510 yards a piece & 3 TD's. Tyrod even had almost 600 yards rushing, more than Allen, though less TD's (because we had LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams & Mike Gillislee scoring plenty). Guess we had greatness back then too right? Tyrod NEVER stalled our offense.... Nope. 

 

Cherry Picking stats to fit your narrative is fun, but in reality you can't manifest a person into something greater just by wishing & hoping hard enough.

 

Imagine how great their years would be if they were hit on even a quarter of the wide open passes that were missed, or all those times the defense set us up in AMAZING field position only for us to come away with nothing passing the ball... Or they were even looked at on their route instead of the QB forcing it to the first read.

 

Weird, but it's possible this team could be WAAAAAY better. 

 

So what's his passer rating in quarters 1-3? I seem to remember there's 45 minutes outside of the 4th quarter that the team has to play which the defense is carrying and keeping it within range. How can you get a 4th quarter comeback unless you're LOSING in the 4th quarter?  Is that a good sign that we were losing so many games to bad teams all the way until the very end? And please, tell me which of those 4th quarter comebacks you were most impressed by:

 

Additionally, what other QB has to be graded by just a single quarter's stats in order to argue their value? How about the COMPLETE picture, where he's ranked 22nd out of 32 QB's in passer rating overall (just 2 spots ahead of Sam Darnold who apparently is garbage according to this board)?

 

Want to factor in QBR, which actually should help given his overall work including rushing & rushing TD's? Oh...he's actually ranked 24th out of 32 QB's in that category... Hmm, maybe there's a last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter QBR you can find to argue how great he is instead of giving the complete picture?

The amazing Jets (reminder, we were scoreless all game until then....but I guess that part of the game is forgotten), the 1-14 Bengals, the 4-11 Dolphins who were 0-6 at the time (and at home!)? Or is the the Steelers game, where we were down a whopping 7 to 10 against a 3rd string QB until the 4th quarter, than squeaked out a 17-10 victory? Again, seeing how we had a total of SEVEN POINTS and were still in the game shows that perhaps it was the defense, not the QB, that was responsible for even giving our sorry offense a chance to win at all!

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TL;DR - So go ahead, don't take it serious, but it's all serious issues that warrant concern. Go ahead & dismiss the facts, that's a symptom of 2019 logic right there anyway. Don't like the facts? Make up your own! Or just take offense to everything that doesn't lineup with the way you want things to be, all so your narrative can fit. 

Edited by BigDingus
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