Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[london_bills]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This can be said of EVERY NFL QB. 

 

Yesterday for example the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson, disappeared for the first quarter and most of the 2nd quarter.  He had less then 20 yards passing and had hit on only 25% of his passes.  He also lost a fumble.  His team was down 6 - 0 and the Ravens had not even sniffed the red zone.  Then Jackson caught fire late in the 2nd period.  Sound familiar? 

 

 

Do you know what I am referencing in regards to Allen? You know, when he looks intimidated? 

No cincy fan, I AM NOT JERRY SULLIVAN IN DISGUISE ???????

Edited December 24, 2019 by london_bills

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/22/2019 at 2:08 PM, BringBackOrton said:

It was Patty Mahomes’ 28th start two weeks ago against the Pats.

 

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually.

 

He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays.

 

The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG.

 

Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

[nedboy7]

Here is what the team thinks of Allen. People need to calm down. 
 

"I would say that every week, Josh's captain's 'C' just gets darker and darker -- as in bolder and bolder for people to see it," Dawkins said. "Josh continues to put the team on his back and you guys see it. [In the] fourth quarter, Josh does what Josh does. We love him and we're thankful for him. That's our quarterback and that's my 17."

"He's a dog, man. He's a gamer," Beasley said. "When the game's on the line, he's going to do everything he has to do and put his body on the line for his team. When you've got a guy like that, good things are going to happen."

 

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Here is what the team thinks of Allen. People need to calm down. 
 

"I would say that every week, Josh's captain's 'C' just gets darker and darker -- as in bolder and bolder for people to see it," Dawkins said. "Josh continues to put the team on his back and you guys see it. [In the] fourth quarter, Josh does what Josh does. We love him and we're thankful for him. That's our quarterback and that's my 17."

"He's a dog, man. He's a gamer," Beasley said. "When the game's on the line, he's going to do everything he has to do and put his body on the line for his team. When you've got a guy like that, good things are going to happen."

 

 

Heard Micah Hyde on the radio earlier...and I quote: "the QB position in Buffalo is solved".

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/22/2019 at 5:38 PM, GoBills808 said:

^someone explain to this guy how drops effect an offense that has a lower amount of attempts on average (like ours) than one like the Patriots who throw the ball at a high rate 

 

Patriots and Bills are tied for 2nd in total drops, but the Bills drop rate is 4.7% vs the Patriots drop rate of 3.7%.

 

If the Bills had the same drop rate as the Patriots, Allen would have 5 more completions, bringing his completion percentage up to 59.9%.

Edited December 24, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, K-Apps said:

I know it’s Cian, but man Allen’s footwork and pocket presence is downright horrific at times. I definitely think he needs to play a half on Sunday:

 

 

 

 

 

Ah yes. Incompetent.

 

That's definitely how I'd describe the guy with the highest passer rating among visiting QBs at Gillette this year.

 

He'd have more credibility if he'd dial down the hyperbole.

 

Missed throws are real, and they're going to be a topic of discussion until they become more of a rarity. But good grief, incompetence? That's an utter joke.

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, klos63 said:

why does an incompletion need to be compared to an interception- he missed 2 open receivers for touchdowns. He needs to make those passes. I'm not discounting the good things he does, as I mentioned in my post, but we likely win the game if he hits those 2, and those were very makeable passes.

 

Allen attributed his inaccuracy especially early in the game to nerves and he's come out and said the 1st Patriots game this year changed his perspective on a lot of things, particularly as it has to do with protecting the football.

 

Personally, I think some of these overthrows (both Knox misses in the EZ) might be connected to that mindset... one of slight overcompensation in order to not risk the pick.

[london_bills]

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

This misrepresents the situation and suggests that Allen routinely misses the easy throws.  He doesn't.  In fact this year he's been making almost all of the "easy throws".  Yes, he does miss an easy throw once & a while.  But to suggest it's a problem at this point is just not correct.

 

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

As for Allen being 13/26 indicating that he's missing "easy throws" I say BS.  He had to throw at least 3 balls away due to the pass rush; he had to throw a ball at the RB's feet on a screen because the Pats had blown it up;  and he threw a desperation hail Mary pass on the last play of the game.  That means Allen was 13/21 or hitting on 62% in his other passes.  And I didn't include a couple of deep shots and a dropped pass.

 

 

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

Just thinking about this part of your text and about this one play. Been listening to the billievers talk podcast, never tuned into that before.. His opinion of the knox endzone throw was that he was 'open, not just nfl open'. I disagree about you saying it looks open.  There's a short window there that is open but not for long, I remember thinking this when watching the game. You are saying at some times in your other posts than Allen lazers it into small windows which you find impressive, then acknowledge perhaps that it would of been nice him doing that here on a big play? If I'm not mistaken the announcer said something eluding to him being open on that play aswell. 

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by london_bills

[transplantbillsfan]

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games

 

Allen has now played in 27 games:

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating 

[transplantbillsfan]

And in the last 7 games the Bills have played the #2, #5, #6, #7, #9, #11 and #28 pass defenses by traditional yards.

 

If you wanna go Defensive DVOA, we've played the #1, #4, #5, #13, #14, #23 and #32 pass defenses according to that metric.

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/1483422/2019/12/23/sandos-pick-six-are-the-seahawks-super-bowl-chances-doomed?source=shared-article

purely from an offensive EPA standpoint, the Bills outperformed all but two New England opponents this season (Baltimore, Houston).

[Zerovoltz]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually.

 

He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays.

 

The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG.

 

Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

 

??? Mahomes put up 40 points in that game and NE had the ball last, kicking the go ahead field goal with no time left to win 43-40.....Mahomes didn't carry his team that day?  He was the only reason the team was in it.

Sitting here bored at work.......i was wondering how many games do you really need to see before you get a good idea of who the player is.

so what I did was started looking at the first 16 STARTS of a QB's career and then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was from those first 16 games to what they produced/became over a career.

MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. 

Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career.

Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. Elways completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on.

A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time.

While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are.

 

Just wanted to share this because while there are exceptions....starting to get into the territory of where Josh might be who Josh is gonna be.

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[ganesh]

On 12/22/2019 at 11:56 PM, klos63 said:

Allen makes too many poor throws. It hurts the team, despite all the good things he does. Nothing wrong with pointing out those misses. There were 2 TD's we missed that most QB's would have made.

Then most QBs should be having 4-5 TDs every game...because that is the # of opportunities they get a crack at the Endzone.  

 

 

[klos63]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

Then most QBs should be having 4-5 TDs every game...because that is the # of opportunities they get a crack at the Endzone.  

 

 

That's just a stupid reply. Allen missed an open receiver twice which would have resulted in touchdowns.  Nobody is saying he should pass for a TD every time they are near the red zone, but yes, they should hit open receivers in the end zone. That's not too much to expect.

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, klos63 said:

That's just a stupid reply. Allen missed an open receiver twice which would have resulted in touchdowns.  Nobody is saying he should pass for a TD every time they are near the red zone, but yes, they should hit open receivers in the end zone. That's not too much to expect.

 

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

[Big Gun]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games

 

Allen has now played in 27 games:

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating 

That is really impressive and shows Allens growth. Especially as your next post shows the defensive rankings get better so does Joshs ratings.

 

This kid is going to be a stud and we have him. Yay! 

Edited December 24, 2019 by pop gun

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, london_bills said:

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

Just thinking about this part of your text and about this one play. Been listening to the billievers talk podcast, never tuned into that before.. His opinion of the knox endzone throw was that he was 'open, not just nfl open'. I disagree about you saying it looks open.  There's a short window there that is open but not for long, I remember thinking this when watching the game. You are saying at some times in your other posts than Allen lazers it into small windows which you find impressive, then acknowledge perhaps that it would of been nice him doing that here on a big play? If I'm not mistaken the announcer said something eluding to him being open on that play aswell. 

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

 

On the end of the game throw to Knox, in real time I called it a tough throw over 2 defenders.

 

My wife asked why he threw it so far over the receivers head, and my cousin (who's not a Bills' fan) responded that it looked like the QB threw a fastball high to (a) prevent the defender from tipping it and (b) give the TE a chance to pivot and leap for it.

 

Just another perspective on it. Still think he could've lofted it in there IMO.

[CincyBillsFan]

11 hours ago, london_bills said:

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

 

Fair point about what constitutes an easy throw as being subjective but I define an "easy" throw as one that's less then 15 yards; where the QB is under NO pressure and the guy is WIDE open.  The 2 throws to Knox IMO were makeable throws which is different than easy.

 

In the 2nd sentence above when you say throwing a pick wouldn't be the end of the world are you talking about the 1st or 2nd throw to Knox?  A pick on the throw to Knox in the end zone on SECOND DOWN would have been the end of the game.  So yea, it's better he overthrow and miss the receiver then under-throw a pick.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, K-Apps said:

I know it’s Cian, but man Allen’s footwork and pocket presence is downright horrific at times. I definitely think he needs to play a half on Sunday:

 

 

 

 

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

 

 

IMO lies by omission are the worst kinds of lies and a lot of Allen critics seem to leave a lot out when describing Allen's QB play.

 

To focus ONLY on the bad throws or missed reads is a form of lying plain & simple.  And these folks wonder why we respond to the lies like we do.

 

I'll say it ONE MORE time:  Allen must continue to improve his game; we won't know for another couple of years if he's our franchise guy; Allen has made great progress and some of his plays are amazing but other aspects of his game need improvement;  all indications are that he's going to develop into a very good and possibly elite QB.  -  I think this speaks for most of us Allen "apologists".

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by CincyBillsFan