Rodgers and Brady, Wentz and Allen

[Rockinon]

Shaw, your posts are always a pleasure to read. These are good points about the QBs. I'd be curious how you see things on the other side of the ball. I personally think the Bills have a chance to win because of the defense. I think NE does have a well coached team and some talent at key positions. Buffalo is also a well coached team but I think they have an edge.  It's hard to pick a single position on this team with a weak spot.  The difference in this game is going to come down to which defense gives their offense the most opportunities.

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, clayboy54 said:

But, I will say that Rodgers, I think, wanted to win it on the strength of his arm and checked out of run plays.

 

Thanks for the PTSD flashbacks to XXV

[NWPABillsfan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

All week I've had trouble getting a handle on Sunday's game.  I simply haven't known how to think about the matchup.   After watching last night, I got it.  Here's what I think about Sunday:

 

I think the Bills and the Pats are built the same.  In his presser on Wednesday, Belichick described the Bills the way people describe the Patriots: solid in all aspects of the game, they don't make mistakes, they disguise what they're doing, they have good players at all positions, they have good coaches.  The Patriots have been at it longer than the Bills, so I think the Pats actually have an edge in overall effectiveness, but I think the Bills should be competitive. 

 

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Brady and Rodgers have combined their talents with years and years of experience in the league.  They give the impression, and Brady actually said it about himself, that they understand everything he sees going on in the defense.   One thing they said the Packers new head coach did when he arrived was tell Rodgers and the offense that they should go back to doing whatever it was that worked so well for so many years.  Essentially, he said he wanted to take advantage of all the experience Rodgers had.   Time and again last night, Rodgers knew exactly where to go with the ball.  He had a really quick release occasionally, to take advantage of a window that he knew would be closing, he knew how to buy himself time in and outside of the pocket to get the receiver to the spot on the field where Rodgers could make a throw.   He drilled some balls, floated some balls, all with great accuracy.  You could SEE it on the field all night long. 

 

Brady has that kind of mastery, too.   

 

Wentz and Allen have great skills.   I think Allen is a better thrower and also a better scrambler, but Wentz is certainly no slouch.   And most of the time, they can match the big boys, throw for throw.   But every once in a while they don't know what to do with the ball, because the defense has crossed them up, or because the primary receiver didn't run the route right or something.   When one of those things happens, Wentz and Allen are improvising; Rodgers and Brady know what to do.  It's as though Rodgers and Brady are chefs, and no matter what collection of ingredients you give them, they can make you something to eat.  Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Those skills that Rodgers and Brady have are the result of having thousands of on-field, in-game repetitions, film study, coaching, thinking, practice.   They've learned to throw side-arm and over the top, to make quick releases, to make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time, when to bail, when to run, when to slide, when to do each of the little things that add up to their being truly excellent at what they do.  Wentz and Allen show some of those things, some of the time, but they're still figuring it out, putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  If their progress continues, and I expect it will for both of them, in another three years we'll see a couple of young QBs who are deadly weapons, like Rodgers and Brady are. 

 

So what do I expect on Sunday?  I expect Brady will be the difference, because QB is such an important position and he's the best in the business.  That could mean the Bills get blown out, it could mean the Bills lose a close one.   Or it could mean the Bills find a way to play with the Pats despite Brady's obvious superiority over Allen, just like the Eagles did.   Keep it close, compete on every play, and then, when you're about to lose the game to the best QB in the game (who didn't think Rodgers was going to march the Pack down the field i=and tie the game?), catch a break in the end to win the game.  

 

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

I agree 100% with this. But this the reason I hate Brady so much. Because he is so good and so hard to confuse and all. I still think we can stay with the Cheatriots and hopefully pull it out in the end.( AKA Eagles last night.)

[finn]

Excellent post. Brady's comment about his ability to see the field so well reminds me of a similar comment by Steve Walsh of the 49ers toward the end of his career. Experience is an underrated factor in a QB's effectiveness. But don't forget about age. There's a reason the Kellys, Aikmans, Walshes and so on retire: They lose zip, they can't move as well or recover as quickly from injuries. Brady is an outlier, but I doubt he can play as well as he has for very much longer. He might know what's going on and where to go with the ball, but getting it there is another matter. 

Excellent post. Brady's comment about his ability to see the field so well reminds me of a similar comment by Steve Walsh of the 49ers toward the end of his career. Experience is an underrated factor in a QB's effectiveness. But don't forget about age. There's a reason the Kellys, Aikmans, Walshes and so on retire: They lose zip, they can't move as well or recover as quickly from injuries. Brady is an outlier, but I doubt he can play as well as he has for very much longer. He might know what's going on and where to go with the ball, but getting it there is another matter. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Well Rodgers lost the game. Wentz won. So I guess the other aspects of the teams mattered more if Wentz was so outclassed.

 

Yep Green Bay’s run defense is aweful

[Nextmanup]

I think the Bills D will show up and live up to their end of the bargain.

 

I think Allen will be frustrated, confused, and have his worst game of the season because of what BB does to him with looks on defense.  So our offense will not keep up their end of the bargain.

 

NE will score in the 20s, but we won't score very much, (10?) and that will be the final score.

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

As an old music professor once told me, the key to improvising is knowing what you're doing. It's a blend of experience and guesswork.

 

Rodgers' improvisations are more on the experience side of that continuum, while Allen's, at this point in his career, lean more towards guesswork.

 

 

Oh, absolutely. Nothing lends itself better to improv than experience.

 

I wasn’t comparing Rodgers’ and Allen’s relative ability to improvise. Just saying that Rodgers still does it a helluva lot. But given his intelligence, work ethic, and raw skills, I believe Allen can get very good at it with experience as well. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think it's due to two factors:

 

*  Andy Reid & the offensive talent KC had in place

 

*  Mahomes is the exception to the rule.  The only other young QB to come into the league and dominate in the passing game the way Mahomes has AND win games was Dan Marino.  In his 2nd year he took the Dolphins to the Super Bowl.  In his time Marino was every bit the wonder kid Mahomes is today. 

 

BTW here's Marino's stat line in his 2nd year from Wikipedia:

 

In his second season, Marino broke six NFL full-season passing records, including the records for most touchdown passes (48, surpassed by Peyton Manning in 2004) and most passing yards (5,084, surpassed by Drew Brees in 2011), and was selected as the NFL's Most Valuable Player. The Dolphins finished with a 14–2 regular season record, clinching home-field advantage for the playoffs. In the Divisional round, the Dolphins avenged their playoff loss of the previous season to Seattle Seahawks 31–10 behind Marino's 262 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.^[16][17] The next week the Dolphins defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game 45–28.^[18] In that game, Marino set AFC Championship Game records with 421 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Both records still stand as of 2019.

 

Definitely all good points. But it all was for naught thereafter, as the newly arrived Jim Kelly helmed Bills proved to be the epitaph to any further Marino AFC Championship crown aspirations...

[yungmack]

2 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

In last night's case, it was the supporting cast that let Rodgers down. I really thought that Graham should've caught that pass in the back of the endzone on the 2nd last Packers drive from the 1. But, I will say that Rodgers, I think, wanted to win it on the strength of his arm and checked out of run plays. That's what cost the Pack the game. Sometimes that wins them games.

 

Allen, like Wentz can have the same fate on Sunday. But Brady seldom checks out of the smart play.

You may be right that Rodgers wanted to win with his arm, but to me a more plausible reason for not running while right on the goal line has to do with the Eagles Dline blowing up the Packs Oline all night long. Run Chubb 4 straight times? They couldn't get the run game going when the D had to defend the entire field and now you have them compressed into 10 yards? And even on those goal line passes, the Eagles were wrecking GB's Oline. 

[snafu]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Overall, you wrote a great post.

When I got to this part, I said to myself:  "Rodgers might have played better, but Wentz' team won last night".  Here's hoping for a similar outcome on Sunday with your Brady/Rodgers, Wentz/Allen analogy.

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Well Rodgers lost the game. Wentz won. So I guess the other aspects of the teams mattered more if Wentz was so outclassed.

The Packers lost and the Eagles won. And the Packers lost largely because their two best receivers and their starting RT were not on the field for their final two drives.

Edited September 27, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Thanks for this, Shaw66.  I'm a big-picture person and this is a big-picture look at things.  Perspective.  It's all about perspective.

 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

3 hours ago, jkeerie said:

You are right.  In the end the Packers couldn't run (or were unwilling to run) and couldn't stop the run (Pettine's defense.  Where have we seen that before.)  Being able to run the football is especially important when you're inside the 10.  Look at the Browns on Sunday.  You have Chubb, and you try four pass plays?

 

Actually, the run got them from outside the 10 yard line to about the two - then he threw the (Russel Wilson SB) slant pass that got picked by Bradham and sealed their defeat.

[njbuff]

I think the Bills can line up and give the Pats a dose of their own medicine, meaning.............

 

the Bills can pound NE with Gore, Singletary and Yeldon to the tune of over 150 yards on the ground.

 

Will that happen? Who the hell knows. But the ingredients are in place.

 

And if this scenario works out, it will be impossibly easy for Allen to do his thing. It's a lot harder to confuse a young QB if their team is running the ball right down your throat.

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Allen will develop.  He's already shown improvement in his accuracy.  Remember he was the one qb before the draft that everyone was saying would require more time. This will be the season he stays in the pocket longer, reads defenses better and starts looking at his second read. He still holds the ball too long but that will also improve with time. I couldn't say any of these things with our last 5-6 qbs.

Intelligence matters in a QB.  Josh is the most intelligent QB out of his class.  Now, in addition to being smart one needs to want to learn more.  I think that Josh has that desire.  He's not arrogant to the point of believing he knows it all.  I think Baker and the other Josh think they know more than they do and that has and will continue to stall their development.  Brady doesn't have the most athletic ability, he never has.  But dang that guy is smart.  He's perhaps the smartest QB I've experienced.  And today he has a lot of wisdom in addition to all of that intelligence.

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

 

Actually, the run got them from outside the 10 yard line to about the two - then he threw the (Russel Wilson SB) slant pass that got picked by Bradham and sealed their defeat.

You're right...that's why I think they should have stuck with the run.  I'm also thinking of the previous series when they were at the Eagles 1 yard line...4 straight pass plays...all incomplete.  

[K-9]

2 hours ago, finn said:

Excellent post. Brady's comment about his ability to see the field so well reminds me of a similar comment by Steve Walsh of the 49ers toward the end of his career. Experience is an underrated factor in a QB's effectiveness. But don't forget about age. There's a reason the Kellys, Aikmans, Walshes and so on retire: They lose zip, they can't move as well or recover as quickly from injuries. Brady is an outlier, but I doubt he can play as well as he has for very much longer. He might know what's going on and where to go with the ball, but getting it there is another matter. 

Excellent post. Brady's comment about his ability to see the field so well reminds me of a similar comment by Steve Walsh of the 49ers toward the end of his career. Experience is an underrated factor in a QB's effectiveness. But don't forget about age. There's a reason the Kellys, Aikmans, Walshes and so on retire: They lose zip, they can't move as well or recover as quickly from injuries. Brady is an outlier, but I doubt he can play as well as he has for very much longer. He might know what's going on and where to go with the ball, but getting it there is another matter. 

You can say that again!

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Shaw, your posts are always a pleasure to read. These are good points about the QBs. I'd be curious how you see things on the other side of the ball. I personally think the Bills have a chance to win because of the defense. I think NE does have a well coached team and some talent at key positions. Buffalo is also a well coached team but I think they have an edge.  It's hard to pick a single position on this team with a weak spot.  The difference in this game is going to come down to which defense gives their offense the most opportunities.

As I said, I think the difference will come down to the quarterbacks.   

 

I think what you have are two well prepared, well coached defenses.   Whether one is better than the other, I don't know, but if they're different, it's not by so much that it will determine the outcome.  QB is by far the most important position, and QB is the position where there's a real talent differential.  Put another way, they're both playing against good defenses, and I think Brady will be able to do more against the Bills than Allen against the Pats.   

 

BUT, it could be close enough that it's a one-score at the end, and then it's anyone's game. 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

All week I've had trouble getting a handle on Sunday's game.  I simply haven't known how to think about the matchup.   After watching last night, I got it.  Here's what I think about Sunday:

 

I think the Bills and the Pats are built the same.  In his presser on Wednesday, Belichick described the Bills the way people describe the Patriots: solid in all aspects of the game, they don't make mistakes, they disguise what they're doing, they have good players at all positions, they have good coaches.  The Patriots have been at it longer than the Bills, so I think the Pats actually have an edge in overall effectiveness, but I think the Bills should be competitive. 

 

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Brady and Rodgers have combined their talents with years and years of experience in the league.  They give the impression, and Brady actually said it about himself, that they understand everything he sees going on in the defense.   One thing they said the Packers new head coach did when he arrived was tell Rodgers and the offense that they should go back to doing whatever it was that worked so well for so many years.  Essentially, he said he wanted to take advantage of all the experience Rodgers had.   Time and again last night, Rodgers knew exactly where to go with the ball.  He had a really quick release occasionally, to take advantage of a window that he knew would be closing, he knew how to buy himself time in and outside of the pocket to get the receiver to the spot on the field where Rodgers could make a throw.   He drilled some balls, floated some balls, all with great accuracy.  You could SEE it on the field all night long. 

 

Brady has that kind of mastery, too.   

 

Wentz and Allen have great skills.   I think Allen is a better thrower and also a better scrambler, but Wentz is certainly no slouch.   And most of the time, they can match the big boys, throw for throw.   But every once in a while they don't know what to do with the ball, because the defense has crossed them up, or because the primary receiver didn't run the route right or something.   When one of those things happens, Wentz and Allen are improvising; Rodgers and Brady know what to do.  It's as though Rodgers and Brady are chefs, and no matter what collection of ingredients you give them, they can make you something to eat.  Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Those skills that Rodgers and Brady have are the result of having thousands of on-field, in-game repetitions, film study, coaching, thinking, practice.   They've learned to throw side-arm and over the top, to make quick releases, to make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time, when to bail, when to run, when to slide, when to do each of the little things that add up to their being truly excellent at what they do.  Wentz and Allen show some of those things, some of the time, but they're still figuring it out, putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  If their progress continues, and I expect it will for both of them, in another three years we'll see a couple of young QBs who are deadly weapons, like Rodgers and Brady are. 

 

So what do I expect on Sunday?  I expect Brady will be the difference, because QB is such an important position and he's the best in the business.  That could mean the Bills get blown out, it could mean the Bills lose a close one.   Or it could mean the Bills find a way to play with the Pats despite Brady's obvious superiority over Allen, just like the Eagles did.   Keep it close, compete on every play, and then, when you're about to lose the game to the best QB in the game (who didn't think Rodgers was going to march the Pack down the field i=and tie the game?), catch a break in the end to win the game.  

 

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

 

Brady has said he believes Rodgers might be the most talented QB of all time and wished he had his abilities.

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Brady has said he believes Rodgers might be the most talented QB of all time and wished he had his abilities.

I didn't know that, but I agree completely.   Rodgers is extraordinarily gifted.  His touch is amazing.  His accuracy on short balls rivals Brady, and on long balls Rodgers is clearly better.   Rodgers scrambles nearly as well as Wilson, maybe better, he runs well, protects himself.  He does everything.