Rodgers and Brady, Wentz and Allen

[Shaw66]

All week I've had trouble getting a handle on Sunday's game.  I simply haven't known how to think about the matchup.   After watching last night, I got it.  Here's what I think about Sunday:

 

I think the Bills and the Pats are built the same.  In his presser on Wednesday, Belichick described the Bills the way people describe the Patriots: solid in all aspects of the game, they don't make mistakes, they disguise what they're doing, they have good players at all positions, they have good coaches.  The Patriots have been at it longer than the Bills, so I think the Pats actually have an edge in overall effectiveness, but I think the Bills should be competitive. 

 

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Brady and Rodgers have combined their talents with years and years of experience in the league.  They give the impression, and Brady actually said it about himself, that they understand everything he sees going on in the defense.   One thing they said the Packers new head coach did when he arrived was tell Rodgers and the offense that they should go back to doing whatever it was that worked so well for so many years.  Essentially, he said he wanted to take advantage of all the experience Rodgers had.   Time and again last night, Rodgers knew exactly where to go with the ball.  He had a really quick release occasionally, to take advantage of a window that he knew would be closing, he knew how to buy himself time in and outside of the pocket to get the receiver to the spot on the field where Rodgers could make a throw.   He drilled some balls, floated some balls, all with great accuracy.  You could SEE it on the field all night long. 

 

Brady has that kind of mastery, too.   

 

Wentz and Allen have great skills.   I think Allen is a better thrower and also a better scrambler, but Wentz is certainly no slouch.   And most of the time, they can match the big boys, throw for throw.   But every once in a while they don't know what to do with the ball, because the defense has crossed them up, or because the primary receiver didn't run the route right or something.   When one of those things happens, Wentz and Allen are improvising; Rodgers and Brady know what to do.  It's as though Rodgers and Brady are chefs, and no matter what collection of ingredients you give them, they can make you something to eat.  Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Those skills that Rodgers and Brady have are the result of having thousands of on-field, in-game repetitions, film study, coaching, thinking, practice.   They've learned to throw side-arm and over the top, to make quick releases, to make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time, when to bail, when to run, when to slide, when to do each of the little things that add up to their being truly excellent at what they do.  Wentz and Allen show some of those things, some of the time, but they're still figuring it out, putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  If their progress continues, and I expect it will for both of them, in another three years we'll see a couple of young QBs who are deadly weapons, like Rodgers and Brady are. 

 

So what do I expect on Sunday?  I expect Brady will be the difference, because QB is such an important position and he's the best in the business.  That could mean the Bills get blown out, it could mean the Bills lose a close one.   Or it could mean the Bills find a way to play with the Pats despite Brady's obvious superiority over Allen, just like the Eagles did.   Keep it close, compete on every play, and then, when you're about to lose the game to the best QB in the game (who didn't think Rodgers was going to march the Pack down the field i=and tie the game?), catch a break in the end to win the game.  

 

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

 

I think it's due to two factors:

 

*  Andy Reid & the offensive talent KC had in place

 

*  Mahomes is the exception to the rule.  The only other young QB to come into the league and dominate in the passing game the way Mahomes has AND win games was Dan Marino.  In his 2nd year he took the Dolphins to the Super Bowl.  In his time Marino was every bit the wonder kid Mahomes is today. 

 

BTW here's Marino's stat line in his 2nd year from Wikipedia:

 

In his second season, Marino broke six NFL full-season passing records, including the records for most touchdown passes (48, surpassed by Peyton Manning in 2004) and most passing yards (5,084, surpassed by Drew Brees in 2011), and was selected as the NFL's Most Valuable Player. The Dolphins finished with a 14–2 regular season record, clinching home-field advantage for the playoffs. In the Divisional round, the Dolphins avenged their playoff loss of the previous season to Seattle Seahawks 31–10 behind Marino's 262 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.^[16][17] The next week the Dolphins defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game 45–28.^[18] In that game, Marino set AFC Championship Game records with 421 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Both records still stand as of 2019.

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[RoyBatty is alive]

52 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think it's due to two factors:

 

*  Andy Reid & the offensive talent KC had in place

 

*  Mahomes is the exception to the rule.  The only other young QB to come into the league and dominate in the passing game the way Mahomes has AND win games was Dan Marino.  In his 2nd year he took the Dolphins to the Super Bowl.  In his time Marino was every bit the wonder kid Mahomes is today. 

Yep.

 

Look at the time Mahomes typically has, a huge clean pocket and his receivers are laughably wide open all too frequently.  Not only do they get huge separation but Mahomes can drill it in quickly enabling them to get huge YAC.

Edited September 27, 2019 by RoyBatty is alive

[Shaw66]

I agree with these responses about Mahomes and Marino.  I think in both cases you're talking about really skilled guys whose skills fit beautifully with the talent and coaching around them.  When we're watching Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Peyton, it was something different.   You could see that they knew what to do whatever was thrown at them.   Although the talent around them matters, for sure, you could take those guys and put them on almost any team, and the team would be a touchdown better.   They just KNOW.  

[MJS]

Well Rodgers lost the game. Wentz won. So I guess the other aspects of the teams mattered more if Wentz was so outclassed.

[timekills17]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Words of wisdom from Shaw.

[clayboy54]

25 minutes ago, MJS said:

Well Rodgers lost the game. Wentz won. So I guess the other aspects of the teams mattered more if Wentz was so outclassed.

In last night's case, it was the supporting cast that let Rodgers down. I really thought that Graham should've caught that pass in the back of the endzone on the 2nd last Packers drive from the 1. But, I will say that Rodgers, I think, wanted to win it on the strength of his arm and checked out of run plays. That's what cost the Pack the game. Sometimes that wins them games.

 

Allen, like Wentz can have the same fate on Sunday. But Brady seldom checks out of the smart play.

[Iron Maiden]

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All week I've had trouble getting a handle on Sunday's game.  I simply haven't known how to think about the matchup.   After watching last night, I got it.  Here's what I think about Sunday:

 

I think the Bills and the Pats are built the same.  In his presser on Wednesday, Belichick described the Bills the way people describe the Patriots: solid in all aspects of the game, they don't make mistakes, they disguise what they're doing, they have good players at all positions, they have good coaches.  The Patriots have been at it longer than the Bills, so I think the Pats actually have an edge in overall effectiveness, but I think the Bills should be competitive. 

 

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Brady and Rodgers have combined their talents with years and years of experience in the league.  They give the impression, and Brady actually said it about himself, that they understand everything he sees going on in the defense.   One thing they said the Packers new head coach did when he arrived was tell Rodgers and the offense that they should go back to doing whatever it was that worked so well for so many years.  Essentially, he said he wanted to take advantage of all the experience Rodgers had.   Time and again last night, Rodgers knew exactly where to go with the ball.  He had a really quick release occasionally, to take advantage of a window that he knew would be closing, he knew how to buy himself time in and outside of the pocket to get the receiver to the spot on the field where Rodgers could make a throw.   He drilled some balls, floated some balls, all with great accuracy.  You could SEE it on the field all night long. 

 

Brady has that kind of mastery, too.   

 

Wentz and Allen have great skills.   I think Allen is a better thrower and also a better scrambler, but Wentz is certainly no slouch.   And most of the time, they can match the big boys, throw for throw.   But every once in a while they don't know what to do with the ball, because the defense has crossed them up, or because the primary receiver didn't run the route right or something.   When one of those things happens, Wentz and Allen are improvising; Rodgers and Brady know what to do.  It's as though Rodgers and Brady are chefs, and no matter what collection of ingredients you give them, they can make you something to eat.  Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Those skills that Rodgers and Brady have are the result of having thousands of on-field, in-game repetitions, film study, coaching, thinking, practice.   They've learned to throw side-arm and over the top, to make quick releases, to make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time, when to bail, when to run, when to slide, when to do each of the little things that add up to their being truly excellent at what they do.  Wentz and Allen show some of those things, some of the time, but they're still figuring it out, putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  If their progress continues, and I expect it will for both of them, in another three years we'll see a couple of young QBs who are deadly weapons, like Rodgers and Brady are. 

 

So what do I expect on Sunday?  I expect Brady will be the difference, because QB is such an important position and he's the best in the business.  That could mean the Bills get blown out, it could mean the Bills lose a close one.   Or it could mean the Bills find a way to play with the Pats despite Brady's obvious superiority over Allen, just like the Eagles did.   Keep it close, compete on every play, and then, when you're about to lose the game to the best QB in the game (who didn't think Rodgers was going to march the Pack down the field i=and tie the game?), catch a break in the end to win the game.  

 

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

I agree....unlike some posters in other threads who are saying we will be able to confuse Brady, I simply don't see it.....Brady hasn't been confused in 10 years......he's seen it ALL.....we can out execute them....but confusing Brady ain't happening....Belichick's D vs Josh is another thing altogether....

Edited September 27, 2019 by Iron Maiden

[atlbillsfan1975]

Rodgers was exactly like Allen when he first started. I wonder if the Bills had  gone from Kelly to Allen as the Packers went from Farve to Rodgers, would the narrative be different?

Even look at the Pats transition to Brady. Bledsoe was a good QB that got injured and Brady got his shot. 

Unique situations for both of those great quarterbacks. 

The Packers has a down year in 2008 but they were 13-3 in 2007 and then 11-5 in 2009. Obviously there was talent on that team. We all knew about the Pats. 

I’d say the talent on the teams for the Pats and Packers helped Brady and Rodgers when they were just starting out as the QB 1. Now over the years Rodgers and Brady have had to carry their teams, but neither was asked to early on. 

Edited September 27, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:

I agree....unlike some posters in other threads who are saying we will be able to confuse Brady, I simply don't see it.....Brady hasn't been confused in 10 years......he's seen it ALL.....we can out execute them....but confusing Brady ain't happening....Belichick's D vs Josh is another thing altogether....

 

 

LOL, we are going to confuse Brady, we suddenly have the magic formula that al the prior HC and DCs never figured out.

 

Brady is like having a real time HC at the line of scrimmage, he has seen it all 20x over, you aint gonna get one over on him, sadly.  That is why as his physical skills diminish  he is still elite at his position.  He pretty much knows exactly where he is going to thrown the ball pre snap.  That is why it is near impossible to sack him most times, that split second most QBs need to decide where to go Brady has eliminated it, biggest reason why he gets the ball out so quickly.

[K-9]

My only quibble with the OP’s well thought out post is the suggestion that Rodgers doesn’t improvise. He’s made a living out of that ability and continues to do so. 

[jkeerie]

11 minutes ago, clayboy54 said:

In last night's case, it was the supporting cast that let Rodgers down. I really thought that Graham should've caught that pass in the back of the endzone on the 2nd last Packers drive from the 1. But, I will say that Rodgers, I think, wanted to win it on the strength of his arm and checked out of run plays. That's what cost the Pack the game. Sometimes that wins them games.

 

Allen, like Wentz can have the same fate on Sunday. But Brady seldom checks out of the smart play.

You are right.  In the end the Packers couldn't run (or were unwilling to run) and couldn't stop the run (Pettine's defense.  Where have we seen that before.)  Being able to run the football is especially important when you're inside the 10.  Look at the Browns on Sunday.  You have Chubb, and you try four pass plays?

[JESSEFEFFER]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All week I've had trouble getting a handle on Sunday's game.  I simply haven't known how to think about the matchup.   After watching last night, I got it.  Here's what I think about Sunday:

 

I think the Bills and the Pats are built the same.  In his presser on Wednesday, Belichick described the Bills the way people describe the Patriots: solid in all aspects of the game, they don't make mistakes, they disguise what they're doing, they have good players at all positions, they have good coaches.  The Patriots have been at it longer than the Bills, so I think the Pats actually have an edge in overall effectiveness, but I think the Bills should be competitive. 

 

However, watching the game last night, it was impossible not to recognize how great Rodgers is and, despite being very good himself, how Wentz's abilities simply don't approach the mastery Rodgers displayed.   Brady is like Rodgers, and Allen is like Wentz.  

 

Brady and Rodgers have combined their talents with years and years of experience in the league.  They give the impression, and Brady actually said it about himself, that they understand everything he sees going on in the defense.   One thing they said the Packers new head coach did when he arrived was tell Rodgers and the offense that they should go back to doing whatever it was that worked so well for so many years.  Essentially, he said he wanted to take advantage of all the experience Rodgers had.   Time and again last night, Rodgers knew exactly where to go with the ball.  He had a really quick release occasionally, to take advantage of a window that he knew would be closing, he knew how to buy himself time in and outside of the pocket to get the receiver to the spot on the field where Rodgers could make a throw.   He drilled some balls, floated some balls, all with great accuracy.  You could SEE it on the field all night long. 

 

Brady has that kind of mastery, too.   

 

Wentz and Allen have great skills.   I think Allen is a better thrower and also a better scrambler, but Wentz is certainly no slouch.   And most of the time, they can match the big boys, throw for throw.   But every once in a while they don't know what to do with the ball, because the defense has crossed them up, or because the primary receiver didn't run the route right or something.   When one of those things happens, Wentz and Allen are improvising; Rodgers and Brady know what to do.  It's as though Rodgers and Brady are chefs, and no matter what collection of ingredients you give them, they can make you something to eat.  Allen and Wentz will give you plenty of tasty meals, but every once in a while they give you a plate of crap. 

 

Those skills that Rodgers and Brady have are the result of having thousands of on-field, in-game repetitions, film study, coaching, thinking, practice.   They've learned to throw side-arm and over the top, to make quick releases, to make subtle moves in the pocket to buy time, when to bail, when to run, when to slide, when to do each of the little things that add up to their being truly excellent at what they do.  Wentz and Allen show some of those things, some of the time, but they're still figuring it out, putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  If their progress continues, and I expect it will for both of them, in another three years we'll see a couple of young QBs who are deadly weapons, like Rodgers and Brady are. 

 

So what do I expect on Sunday?  I expect Brady will be the difference, because QB is such an important position and he's the best in the business.  That could mean the Bills get blown out, it could mean the Bills lose a close one.   Or it could mean the Bills find a way to play with the Pats despite Brady's obvious superiority over Allen, just like the Eagles did.   Keep it close, compete on every play, and then, when you're about to lose the game to the best QB in the game (who didn't think Rodgers was going to march the Pack down the field i=and tie the game?), catch a break in the end to win the game.  

 

Oh, and one more thing.   Don't ask me how in heaven's name Mahomes is already able to play so much like a seasoned veteran.  I'd guess that the combination of Reid and a lot of talent around him minimizes the impact of the things that Mahomes doesn't understandyet.   Whatever it is, he's the only young QB who seems to demonstrate the kind of the breadth of skills that only the old masters have.   

 

Ok, the younger guys have something else on the old guys.  Sometime during the spring we had a thread about expectations in which I said the Bills offense would be middle of the pack, but be very effective in the RedZone and average around 23 pts a game.  Josh is an unusual combination of power, size and athleticism that he is becoming the ultimate RedZone weapon.  A defensive front 7 can get extremely fatigued converting from pass rush mode to chase Josh mode multiple times a game or on a particular drive.  Picture the Dolphins D collapsed on the field in Miami after the incomplete pass attempt to Clay.  This wasn't in celebration, this was totally spent.  The last TD drive against the Bengals had two critical JA runs to get them to the 1.

 

This could be how the Bills win at the end.

Josh is a RedZone weapon throwing or running by size, speed or power and he is even more of a force at the end of a game when a defense has worn down.  I can't picture the Bills not scoring a TD by some means with three plays from the 1.  

[Don Otreply]

Nice, as always, very good points and an excellent read.

 

Go Bills!!!

[WhoTom]

24 minutes ago, K-9 said:

My only quibble with the OP’s well thought out post is the suggestion that Rodgers doesn’t improvise. He’s made a living out of that ability and continues to do so. 

 

As an old music professor once told me, the key to improvising is knowing what you're doing. It's a blend of experience and guesswork.

 

Rodgers' improvisations are more on the experience side of that continuum, while Allen's, at this point in his career, lean more towards guesswork.

 

 

[ProcessYaDigg]

[Buffalo Junction]

31 minutes ago, clayboy54 said:

In last night's case, it was the supporting cast that let Rodgers down. I really thought that Graham should've caught that pass in the back of the endzone on the 2nd last Packers drive from the 1. But, I will say that Rodgers, I think, wanted to win it on the strength of his arm and checked out of run plays. That's what cost the Pack the game. Sometimes that wins them games.

 

Allen, like Wentz can have the same fate on Sunday. But Brady seldom checks out of the smart play.

IDK. With the way the Packers run game was going last night I might have abandoned it as well. Particularly with Williams out. That run game has serious issues. They haven’t gotten anything going this year with either back. Considering how well Jones and Williams did last year I’d say there’s a big problem with blocking schemes and/play design since they returned the entire O-line. 

 

Mall of that might not have mattered though if Adams and Bulaga hadn’t gotten injured. Still, injuries happen, and a team has to find a way to win when they do. 

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

35 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

LOL, we are going to confuse Brady, we suddenly have the magic formula that al the prior HC and DCs never figured out.

 

Brady is like having a real time HC at the line of scrimmage, he has seen it all 20x over, you aint gonna get one over on him, sadly.  That is why as his physical skills diminish  he is still elite at his position.  He pretty much knows exactly where he is going to thrown the ball pre snap.  That is why it is near impossible to sack him most times, that split second most QBs need to decide where to go Brady has eliminated it, biggest reason why he gets the ball out so quickly.

 

I agree 100%

 

In their time in Buffalo:

Rex Ryan always wanted to try and confuse Brady with his exotic blitz packages and what not which was a disaster and never worked.

McDermott wants to out execute Brady, hence all of the process talk and hopefully it all comes to fruition on Sunday.

[DCofNC]

43 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Ok, the younger guys have something else on the old guys.  Sometime during the spring we had a thread about expectations in which I said the Bills offense would be middle of the pack, but be very effective in the RedZone and average around 23 pts a game.  Josh is an unusual combination of power, size and athleticism that he is becoming the ultimate RedZone weapon.  A defensive front 7 can get extremely fatigued converting from pass rush mode to chase Josh mode multiple times a game or on a particular drive.  Picture the Dolphins D collapsed on the field in Miami after the incomplete pass attempt to Clay.  This wasn't in celebration, this was totally spent.  The last TD drive against the Bengals had two critical JA runs to get them to the 1.

 

This could be how the Bills win at the end.

Josh is a RedZone weapon throwing or running by size, speed or power and he is even more of a force at the end of a game when a defense has worn down.  I can't picture the Bills not scoring a TD by some means with three plays from the 1.  

I do have faith they will get in when they are close now.  Theres too much to stop for a defense to be able to shut them down 4 plays in a row ( obviously exceptions happen).  Allen can run over or around you, Gore can bulldoze with the best of them ever, Singletary can't be seen until it's too late (watch for him to score a lot of TDs in his career because of that, Think a shorter Emmitt Smith), Smoke and McKenzie can do a lot of things and are flat out FAST.  The TEs can all catch the ball and are all big enough to be a mismatch.  Its kind of like KC, except the weapons aren't as well known yet and I would argue Maholmes is just flat out better right now.

[LABILLBACKER]

Allen will develop.  He's already shown improvement in his accuracy.  Remember he was the one qb before the draft that everyone was saying would require more time. This will be the season he stays in the pocket longer, reads defenses better and starts looking at his second read. He still holds the ball too long but that will also improve with time. I couldn't say any of these things with our last 5-6 qbs.