When 3-0 Isn't Really 3-0

[Thurman#1]

You are what your record says you are.

 

And while I think this is the best Bills team we've seen in quite a while, we've got a chance, but it isn't a likelihood, or close.

Edited September 26, 2019 by Thurman#1

[CSBill]

All good points, thanks theRalph--although I would not put much stock in the Bills have handle pressure better. There may be no one better in the history of the NFL in handling pressure than Tom Brady and the NE coaching staff.

 

Having said that, I get the feeling the one area of the Patriots that has been over rated is their Defense. Yes, they are number one in several major categorizes. But look at what they've played: a beat-up Steelers, Ben should not have been playing that day; an NFL JV team in Miami; and a severely weakened Jets team--since the Bills played them, that is. For NE, this is the first real offensive test they have faced. I strongly feel the Bills will expose them (well, at least bring them back to mere mortal status).

 

And because of that, this will be a close game with a key turnover being the different ---- "Take care of the football Josh Allen!"

[billsfan1959]

55 minutes ago, CSBill said:

All good points, thanks theRalph--although I would not put much stock in the Bills have handle pressure better. There may be no one better in the history of the NFL in handling pressure than Tom Brady and the NE coaching staff.

 

Having said that, I get the feeling the one area of the Patriots that has been over rated is their Defense. Yes, they are number one in several major categorizes. But look at what they've played: a beat-up Steelers, Ben should not have been playing that day; an NFL JV team in Miami; and a severely weakened Jets team--since the Bills played them, that is. For NE, this is the first real offensive test they have faced. I strongly feel the Bills will expose them (well, at least bring them back to mere mortal status).

 

And because of that, this will be a close game with a key turnover being the different ---- "Take care of the football Josh Allen!"

Good post. The Bills are a pretty good offensive team:

 

4th in the NFL in touchdown drives of 70+ yds

5th in the NFL in scoring (TD & FG) drives of 70 + yds

5th in redzone pts

5th in redzone TDs

6th in net yds per drive

8th in net pts per drive

5th in net drive success rate (percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown)

5th in TOP

 

The Bills have moved the ball well in their three games. The difference between the games being close or being blowouts came down to 3 things: (1) Turnovers, (2) Penalties in critical situations, and (3) Poor offensive play in the 3rd qtr of each game:

 

	Drives	Tot Net Yds	Scores	TD	FG	Missed FG	Safety	INTs	Fumbles	Punts
1st Qtr	11	425	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	5
2nd Qtr	7	281	2	1	1	1	0	1	2	1
3rd Qtr	7	73	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	4
4th Qtr	8	383	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	4

 

If, on offense, the Bills can eliminate the turnovers and critical penalaties, as well as improve their 3rd quarter play; and, on defense, continue to play as they have, they absolutely can beat the Pats*

 

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Always entertaining to read the lengths Bills fans will go to rationalize our position in the NFL.

Always entertaining to hear from fans who will go to any length to explain why the Bills aren't a good team

 

5 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

“The EYEBALL test does not”..... 

.....whose eyeballs? Yours!? Cuz holy **** u need a new prescription.

 

i love this “NE hasn’t faced any adversity so far”...in 3 games, after playing in the playoffs for the last umpteen years and the last 4 superbowls THEY havent faced adversity. They ain’t used to it. Wow yo. I’ve seen some very dumb **** here but this is some DUMB ****. I knew the homer bs would get bad after we won against the bengals but DAMN.

This post is what happens when children try to participate in adult conversations

Edited September 26, 2019 by billsfan1959

[CSBill]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

If, on offense, the Bills can eliminate the turnovers and critical penalties, as well as improve their 3rd quarter play; and, on defense, continue to play as they have, they absolutely can beat the Pats*

 

Yes! Our offense has improved dramatically. Eliminate mistakes, and the game is there to be had.

[eball]

7 hours ago, folz said:

Belichick never lets his team underestimate an opponent

 

/thread

[gonzo1105]

I’ve heard the point that they haven’t played anybody either the whole week. 2 things are that the Patriots have destroyed their inferior competition while the Bills have squeaked by. 

 

The 2nd point is the Patriots have 6 SBs and we have been subpar for 20 years plus. It’s not hard to realize why we’re not getting the same respect level. Even if we beat the Patriots in a close game on Sunday the narrative will still probably be more the Patriots blew it than the Bills won it

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I love your enthusiasm.  I like what the Bills are doing, I think we are poised to have a consistently competitive championship level team.  But it is Brady and Belichick, the best ever at their respective jobs.  Doesn’t matter if they have injuries on their team, adversity, they are just better.  Look at what they’re doing to teams this year.  As much as I love my Bills, and knowing that in any given Sunday odd things can happen, I anticipate a Pats victory.  And will likely do so as long as B and B are with them.

 

Pretty much this.  I think for the first time since the arrival of Brady and Belichick in NE, the Bills actually have comparable talent to the Pats throughout the roster.  Unfortunately, they aren't in the same league with NE at QB and HC.   Probably no other team is, either.  A few teams over the years have had good enough coaching and/or QB play and/or over all talent to go toe-to-toe with the Pats for a game or two but nobody has done it consistently.

 

If the Bills can play NE tough and keep the game close, that probably is the best they'll be able to do.  If they can actually win the game, that will border on miraculous, although far more realistic than it appeared to be a month ago.

[mjt328]

9 hours ago, theRalph said:

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley. I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury. And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents.

 

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE. So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins. The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0. Not all 3-0 records are created equal.

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots. Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

 

Forget what the media is spouting.  The Bills are not on the Patriots level.  Yet.

And there is nothing wrong with admitting that as a fan.

 

Of course it doesn't mean we can't keep the game close or possibly even win on Sunday.  I just think fans are setting themselves up for a really bad weekend, if they are judging whether the Bills are "legit" or "real" based strictly on how they perform this Sunday.  There will be a time when Josh Allen will be expected to perform like a Top 10 Quarterback, and anything short of 12 wins and the AFC East Title will be a significant disappointment.  But we aren't quite there yet. 

 

Allen has only 14 starts under his belt.  This was Beane's first offseason with cap space, and the ability to draft BPA (without worrying about getting his quarterback).  If we can win 10 games, ***** a Wild Card spot and see consistent progress from the guy under center -- then I will consider 2019 a massively successful season.

 

 

[Seasons1992]

You know what can be a huge difference here? Winning the coin toss and kicking to them. They are ruthless at getting the ball late in the 1st half, scoring, and then they get the ball again to start the 2nd. 

Laugh all you want......I’m telling you, it starts with the coin flip against NE.

[billsfan1959]

37 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Pretty much this.  I think for the first time since the arrival of Brady and Belichick in NE, the Bills actually have comparable talent to the Pats throughout the roster.  Unfortunately, they aren't in the same league with NE at QB and HC.   Probably no other team is, either.  A few teams over the years have had good enough coaching and/or QB play and/or over all talent to go toe-to-toe with the Pats for a game or two but nobody has done it consistently.

 

If the Bills can play NE tough and keep the game close, that probably is the best they'll be able to do.  If they can actually win the game, that will border on miraculous, although far more realistic than it appeared to be a month ago.

Disagree completely. If the Bills are even or on the + side of the turnover margin and do not beat themselves with critical drops and penalties, they are absolutely capable of beating the Pats* at home this weekend.

[bigK14094]

New England is one solid hit to Brady's ribs away from being an average  team.  Getter done legally!

[Ramza86]

That would make sense if we had zero clue about the past history of Brady and Bill. If Brady and Bill were new to the league id get it

 

 

We know what they do and how long theyve been doing it for.

 

You cant just say the past doesnt count...because theyve done just as well with equal or worse situations. 

Edited September 26, 2019 by Ramza86

[row_33]

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. .....

 

oh dear....

 

The Pats STOMPED their cupcakes, the Bills had to get 2 of their cupcakes to choke away a won game...

 

I see a huge difference, give'em hell Bills!!!

 

 

[HOUSE]

13 hours ago, theRalph said:

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley. I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury. And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents.

 

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE. So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins. The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0. Not all 3-0 records are created equal.

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots. Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

 

The Eyeball Test never lies

 

[billsfan1959]

11 minutes ago, row_33 said:

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. .....

 

oh dear....

 

The Pats STOMPED their cupcakes, the Bills had to get 2 of their cupcakes to choke away a won game...

 

I see a huge difference, give'em hell Bills!!!

 

 

I don't think you could provide a worse analysis...

[PintoJack]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

They have dominated their opponents from the opening whistle.  Pittsburgh is a better team than Cincinnati.  The Bills have struggled to move the ball for long stretches in all three games.  The Patriots have not.  It's quite fair to say they are a better 3-0 team.  

But none of that means anything come Sunday.  If anyone thinks the Bills can't win, then they have no understanding of history or the game of NFL football.  

100% agree. We can't go in thinking we're the better team, because in stat lines and games played, we aren't. But Bills Mafia and Josh Allen could EASILY come together and smack the Pats to become 4-0.

[row_33]

52 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I don't think you could provide a worse analysis...

 

the Jets and Bengals choked away wins to the Bills

 

simple

 

 

[nucci]

when you're actually 2-1?

[Yav]

5 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Good post. The Bills are a pretty good offensive team:

 

4th in the NFL in touchdown drives of 70+ yds

5th in the NFL in scoring (TD & FG) drives of 70 + yds

5th in redzone pts

5th in redzone TDs

6th in net yds per drive

8th in net pts per drive

5th in net drive success rate (percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown)

5th in TOP

 

The Bills have moved the ball well in their three games. The difference between the games being close or being blowouts came down to 3 things: (1) Turnovers, (2) Penalties in critical situations, and (3) Poor offensive play in the 3rd qtr of each game:

 

	Drives	Tot Net Yds	Scores	TD	FG	Missed FG	Safety	INTs	Fumbles	Punts
1st Qtr	11	425	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	5
2nd Qtr	7	281	2	1	1	1	0	1	2	1
3rd Qtr	7	73	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	4
4th Qtr	8	383	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	4

 

If, on offense, the Bills can eliminate the turnovers and critical penalaties, as well as improve their 3rd quarter play; and, on defense, continue to play as they have, they absolutely can beat the Pats*

 

Always entertaining to hear from fans who will go to any length to explain why the Bills aren't a good team

 

This post is what happens when children try to participate in adult conversations

None of this matters. Both Buffalo and NE have played poor teams. The difference is NE clobbered those poor teams and the Bills struggled. Sunday will be the hardest game for both teams and we will see what happens. Can't just look at the stats right now and claim a team is good. Look at KC, they've had 1 hard game vs Baltimore and until they face NE they have an easy schedule and I'm sure they will have all sorts of crazy stats, then they will head to NE and get beat. Sure they will make the playoffs and likely loose in the first round, why? Because they played an easy schedule.

 

The Bills played the Jets, Giants and Bungles, not really juggernauts and yea they won all 3 games but they should have dominated the Giants and the Bungles and really should have scored more vs the Jets. NE beat the Steelers 33-3, Miami 43-0 and the Jets 30-14. Sure they are not strong teams but they dominated and took care of business. 

[BillsVet]

NE's 3-0 record carries with it the reputation of a HC and QB who together have won 15 out of the last 16 AFCE titles and 3 of the previous 5 SB's.

 

To limit this discussion to who NE or BUF have played in the first 3 weeks of the 2019 season is myopic and asinine.